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Good time to stress test the newsletter writers, etc

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Seems like a good time (!) to review how well the various newletters, programmes, etc have been doing in dealing with the current financial situation.

 

I don't mean specific short-term predictions on the indicies, etc but more the bigger picture:

 

o Did they predict this, backed by some correct analysis (i.e. rather than good luck or hedging both sides)?

 

o Are they correctly analysing where we currently are (i.e. do they have a handle on things)?

 

o Do they have a clear and logical picture of the future course of events (i.e. do they sound credible)?

 

o Are they making clear recommendations on what to do now?

 

o Are they now being seen to be biased or caught in blinkered thinking?

 

I suggest a post for each source, with some comment and links.

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Global Money Trends (aka Sirchartsalot)

 

Summary: Lots of respect for this guy but not much use at present and did not seem particularly ahead of the game.

 

Link: http://www.sirchartsalot.com

 

Comments:

 

o Paid newsletter and twice weekly audio by Gary Dorsch. Often a guest on Financial Sense. Good thinker with lots of experience.

 

o Proves a good macro analysis (especially linkages between markets) with a mix of fundamental and (mild) technical analysis.

 

o Used to publish a model portfolio but stopped doing this without any mention (guess its an embarrasment).

 

o His audio/newsletters have recently just provided commentary on what's been happening rather than recommendations.

 

o Seems to excessively emphasise "demand destruction" (e.g. focus on US oild demand rather than world supply and demand).

 

 

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Channel 4 news, fantastic coverage by Jon Snow + Co. They were ringing the alarm bells about Icelandic banks back in March. Generally just consistently good at reporting this mess for what it is.

 

They are the only main TV news programme I consider to have 'grappled this bull by the horns', so to speak.

 

 

Plus Jon wears really funky ties and socks.

 

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Puru Saxena

 

Summary: More of a trader, seems sharp and on the ball but you need confidence to stick with him.

 

Link: http://purusaxena.com/

 

Comments:

 

o Paid monthly newsletter and weekly email. Based in Hong Kong with Asian perspective in addition to world wide perspective.

 

o Often on Financial Sense. Puplava seems to have a lot of respect for this guy.

 

o More of an intermediate term trader (i.e. not buy and hold but will sell if fundamentals/technicals say so).

 

o Very good analysis coming into this mess, and good commentry on where we currently are and where we are going.

 

o Has conviction and clarity. Says what he thinks and gives clear recommendations. No hedging his opinion.

 

o Currently saying to hold, even buy, PMs and commodities and energy despite further falls so you need confidence in him.

 

o Sent additional email alerts out during the crisis which was a nice touch.

 

o Probably the best source I have heard over this crisis period.

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Channel 4 news, fantastic coverage by Jon Snow + Co. They were ringing the alarm bells about Icelandic banks back in March. Generally just consistently good at reporting this mess for what it is.

 

They are the only main TV news programme I consider to have 'grappled this bull by the horns', so to speak.

 

 

Plus Jon wears really funky ties and socks.

 

 

Agreed, they have excelled. John Snow outclasses all his peers. Treats me as being intelligent and has little arrogance (apart from the ties!). My kind of reporter.

 

 

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Financial Sense

 

Summary: Massive respect for these guys (commitment and analysis) but are they losing it?

 

Link: http://www.financialsense.com/

 

Comments:

 

o Loads of information and articles on their web-site, plus a weekly "radio" (mp3) show.

 

o One of the best sources of information on markets. Lots of broadcast and article guests so a good single point of information.

 

o Always been keen to analyse the bigger picture and been pretty good at it coming into this crisis.

 

o Lose their way sometimes (e.g. Oreilo (sp?) theory, constantly moving oil price targets, etc).

 

o Seem a bit blinkered currently with inane emphasis on definitions of inflation/deflation, peak oil, etc.

 

o Jim is a fund manager and was wrongly (in my view) criticising "mark to market" this week (presumably being hit) - too biased?

 

o They seem to be struggling a bit to fully appreciate what is happening (e.g. took a while to mention deleveraging).

 

o Will always remain a favourite but I no longer believe or trust all they say (which is a good lesson).

 

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Robert McHugh Main Line Investors Inc

 

Link: http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com

 

Summary: Done well providing a technical navigation through the current crisis.

 

Comments:

 

o Paid newsletter published daily and weekly. Daily summary email. Sometimes a guest on FSN.

 

o Coverage of the US, Australian, HUI, Gold, Silver, USD, and (a little) DAX and FTSE markets.

 

o Very much technical analysis (intermediate and short), using some of his own indicators (but no "system" per se).

 

o Little in the way of fundamental analysis in the newsletters (although he says more when on FSN (and sounds good)) .

 

o Hard to read sometimes (confusing - ambiguous writing, no clear layout, not clear terminology).

 

o Provides an excellent technical summary of where we were, where we are, and where we are going.

 

o Done a good job at predicting market levels. Really helped me to make some trading money!

 

o The daily emails provide a good "sense check" of my thoughts and/or fill in the blanks!

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The International Forecaster

 

Link: http://theinternationalforecaster.com

 

Summary: Maybe considered to be on the "lunatic fringe" but could be a grain of truth and he did call the crisis sort of right.

 

Comments:

 

o Paid for twice weekly newsletter. Regular guest appearance on Goldseek radio.

 

o Semi-retired broker (?) provides his musing on events. No technical analysis or anything like that.

 

o The newsletter is a bit of a ramble and gets a bit conspiritorial so you need to sort the gems out from the rest.

 

o Tells you details the others seem to miss which can be quite insightful.

 

o Not much good at predicting the future or recommending anything other than guns and freeze dried food!

 

o Useful for providing a different view and information but plays more on emotion than practicalities.

 

 

 

 

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Financial Sense

 

Summary: Massive respect for these guys (commitment and analysis) but are they losing it?

 

Link: http://www.financialsense.com/

 

Comments:

 

o Loads of information and articles on their web-site, plus a weekly "radio" (mp3) show.

 

o One of the best sources of information on markets. Lots of broadcast and article guests so a good single point of information.

 

o Always been keen to analyse the bigger picture and been pretty good at it coming into this crisis.

 

o Lose their way sometimes (e.g. Oreilo (sp?) theory, constantly moving oil price targets, etc).

 

o Seem a bit blinkered currently with inane emphasis on definitions of inflation/deflation, peak oil, etc.

 

o Jim is a fund manager and was wrongly (in my view) criticising "mark to market" this week (presumably being hit) - too biased?

 

o They seem to be struggling a bit to fully appreciate what is happening (e.g. took a while to mention deleveraging).

 

o Will always remain a favourite but I no longer believe or trust all they say (which is a good lesson).

 

 

Certainly agree with your assessment here.

Been listening for many years and at one point believed they could be on the right track (still do with peak oil).

But they are losing it on economics and are failing to keep up with what is happening.

JP must be under lots of pressure given what is happening to his portfolio. His junior golds are just getting hammered and it'll be interesting to see how he explains away his call for a new high in the Dow this year.

(His portfolio is available on this site)

JP's mate John is also losing it: "This is not deflation it's deleveraging" was a comment that many here could have taken him up on.

Still good listening though, just waiting for the day he admits deflation is a possibility.

 

The rising star must be Mish.

He's a smart cookie and willing to argue deflation live against anyone and has come out on top against Janzen and Schiff in my opinion.

He once offer JP a bet I recall (something to do with some steaks) - JP did not respond.

JP is a great talker but not a great economist and knows he would struggle in a debate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The International Forecaster

 

Link: http://theinternationalforecaster.com

 

Summary: Maybe considered to be on the "lunatic fringe" but could be a grain of truth and he did call the crisis sort of right.

 

Comments:

 

o Paid for twice weekly newsletter. Regular guest appearance on Goldseek radio.

 

o Semi-retired broker (?) provides his musing on events. No technical analysis or anything like that.

 

o The newsletter is a bit of a ramble and gets a bit conspiritorial so you need to sort the gems out from the rest.

 

o Tells you details the others seem to miss which can be quite insightful.

 

o Not much good at predicting the future or recommending anything other than guns and freeze dried food!

 

o Useful for providing a different view and information but plays more on emotion than practicalities.

 

 

Another good assessment.

Excellent for the real doom and gloomer and I quite like his work.

Certainly on the lunatic fringe but has made good calls.

His been storing food since the 1960's - and could right one day.

Loves his gold coins and travels abroad with some just in case.

In my darker moments I give him the benefit of the doubt on some of his wilder claims.

Claims to speak many languages but never really convinces me of any fluency.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Puru Saxena

 

Summary: More of a trader, seems sharp and on the ball but you need confidence to stick with him.

 

Link: http://purusaxena.com/

 

Comments:

 

o Paid monthly newsletter and weekly email. Based in Hong Kong with Asian perspective in addition to world wide perspective.

 

o Often on Financial Sense. Puplava seems to have a lot of respect for this guy.

. . .

o Probably the best source I have heard over this crisis period.

 

I saw Puru in a Starbucks Coffee shop about two weeks ago, and nearly went up to him.

I wish I had now

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JP's mate John is also losing it: "This is not deflation it's deleveraging" was a comment that many here could have taken him up on.

 

Well, I've only just listened and yes, when I heard this I thought, unbelievable! Look at this way. Let's say you bought into one of Puplava's funds 3 months ago and you are now down 30% (this is a figure I've plucked out of the air, I've no idea of the real figure, but I suspect it is down), that means for you, your wealth has been reduced by 30%, you are experiencing asset price deflation. It may well be that deleveraging is going on, but this is resulting in massive asset price deflation, which while it may well be short lived, is little comfort for those going through it. Inflation/deflation debates on theory are all very well, but reality is your experience.

 

I think Puplava is praying for the great reflation and he may get it, but many of his predictions have increasing become questionable, for example he did call the housing bottom about 6-9 months ago in one of his programmes! I like JP.

 

All the same, I still think FSN is worth listening too, if only to place a bet on how many times he says "it's amazing" in a show. Over/under 45, spread bet odds worth checking I reckon.

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Well, I've only just listened and yes, when I heard this I thought, unbelievable! Look at this way. Let's say you bought into one of Puplava's funds 3 months ago and you are now down 30% (this is a figure I've plucked out of the air, I've no idea of the real figure, but I suspect it is down), that means for you, your wealth has been reduced by 30%, you are experiencing asset price deflation. It may well be that deleveraging is going on, but this is resulting in massive asset price deflation, which while it may well be short lived, is little comfort for those going through it. Inflation/deflation debates on theory are all very well, but reality is your experience.

 

I think Puplava is praying for the great reflation and he may get it, but many of his predictions have increasing become questionable, for example he did call the housing bottom about 6-9 months ago in one of his programmes! I like JP.

 

All the same, I still think FSN is worth listening too, if only to place a bet on how many times he says "it's amazing" in a show. Over/under 45, spread bet odds worth checking I reckon.

 

Ouch, spot on! Well I've followed his advice with energy and juniors and only 30% down would be wonderful! That said, he gives a very good arguement for the fundamentals in energy, etc so I give him the benefit of the doubt (plus I owe him a lot over the years). But then had I followed Saxena, who agrees with him but is prepared to buy and sell, I would not be down so much. Saxena has taught me buy and hold is dead (and to investigate some technical analysis to supplement the fundamental analysis). Puplava over the last few week has worried me with his comments now his back (as a fund manager) is presumably against the wall (I review his holdings each quarter so know he must be hurting). His behaviour was largely the impetus for this thread. This week's slagging off of "mark to market" was a wake up call. Happy to take the unrealised gains on the way up but not on the way down. I'm an accountant - consistency rules! And that's why we have financial statements with disclosure about such things. That said, I have huge respect and admiration for both of them.

 

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GoldSeek radio

 

Link: http://www.radio.goldseek.com

 

Summary: Good background financial musac but seem to have risen above most of the current crisis

 

Comments:

 

o Weekly free broadcast (mp3) and stock picks with free daily emails (which seem to all arrive on Sundays!).

 

o Has the International Forecaster on to do most of the analysis (wonder why I subscribe to this when he's here).

 

o Saw trouble brewing but say little about the future other than buy CHF bonds and PMs (maybe they're right).

 

o Do issue high dividend stock picks which I might try once normality resumes (after checking for no scam).

 

o Provides some recommendation on the PM and US market market short term but low key.

 

o Has a weekly guest, usually quite good for the bigger picture view and strategy.

 

o All that, a good listen (apart from the baggage that comes with being on some sort of free to air channel).

 

o PS. That ad about gold being $6xx is old - please don't top yourself on hearing it!

 

 

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Bob Hoye - weekly podcasts here:

http://www.howestreet.com/audiovideo/

 

Has a newsletter too, but I believe it is very expensive.

 

I like his long term historical view - completely unfazed by the current travails.

 

ABB

 

Howe Street is one of my main sources of podcast.

 

 

Fence,

You are doing a great job here. Very useful and interesting.

I've added this thread to my list of notable threads :D

 

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Well, I've only just listened and yes, when I heard this I thought, unbelievable! Look at this way. Let's say you bought into one of Puplava's funds 3 months ago and you are now down 30% (this is a figure I've plucked out of the air, I've no idea of the real figure, but I suspect it is down), that means for you, your wealth has been reduced by 30%, you are experiencing asset price deflation. It may well be that deleveraging is going on, but this is resulting in massive asset price deflation, which while it may well be short lived, is little comfort for those going through it. Inflation/deflation debates on theory are all very well, but reality is your experience.

 

I think Puplava is praying for the great reflation and he may get it, but many of his predictions have increasing become questionable, for example he did call the housing bottom about 6-9 months ago in one of his programmes! I like JP.

 

All the same, I still think FSN is worth listening too, if only to place a bet on how many times he says "it's amazing" in a show. Over/under 45, spread bet odds worth checking I reckon.

 

Captain Hook

 

this guy just called it right in the summer re Juniors - unfortunately i didnt listen and stayed invested in them

 

 

and this one called the crash to the day?

 

from memory i think he has been calling for a while - not as long as precther though

http://www.safehaven.com/article-11539.htm

 

 

 

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Bob Hoye has called these markets better than anyone imo. From the collapse in base metals prices 18 months ago to the collapse in oil to the stock market collapse to the silver:gold ratio going back to 100 (now 85-90) .

 

Puplava is inspiring and charismatic but if you followed his advice you would be losing a fortune.

 

he was very late to the housing collapse and called it only after the event believing instead in his hyperinflation so religiously that all hard assets would rise against cash. His research on peak oil is impeccable. However, there are many other things driving the oil price apart from peak oil and he has not taken these into account.

 

Mish is V. good too. But gives opinion rather than specific trade advice.

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Martin Armstrong

 

not a newsletter but this cycle didnt have a low planned

 

The Future

 

While this business cycle can be calculated on quarter-cycle intervals of 2.15 years into the final peak for this major wave formation of December 24th, 2032. Though this is long beyond my life expectancy, there is so much more behind the true understanding of the driving forces within the business cycle. I have learned that it is easy to claim coincidence and ignore the telltale signs of a hidden order. It is easy to argue that there is no basis for such a model without ever making an effort to test results. If everyone stopped with such criticism, most of ancient Greece would still be buried and Homer would still be considered a book for children. Man would not fly or travel to the moon. A cure for cancer would not be sought and progress would simply not exist. But furthering our understanding is part of humanity. Like law, that when strictly enforced deprives society of justice when circumstances are ignored, it is also the sin of ignorance toward new concepts that deprives mankind of progress and ultimately our posterity.

 

The Economic Confidence Model in 2.15-year intervals

 

 

1998.55... 07/20/98

 

2000.7.... 09/13/00

 

2002.85... 11/08/02

 

2005.... 01/02/05

 

2007.15... 02/27/07

 

2009.3... 04/23/09

 

2011.45... 06/18/11

 

2013.6... 08/12/13

 

2015.75... 10/07/15

 

2017.9... 12/01/17

 

2020.05... 01/26/20

 

2022.2... 03/22/22

 

2024.35... 05/16/24

 

2026.5... 07/11/26

 

2028.65... 09/04/28

 

2030.8... 10/30/30

 

2032.95... 12/24/32

 

 

 

The future that lies ahead will increasingly move ever greater toward intensity and volatility. Such periods have always brought not merely great booms and busts, but they too hold in the palm of their hand the thunderbolt of war. The economic future of Russia is one of such corruption and decay, that it too will rise as the warlord who seeks to regain what he has lost. China too will eventually beat the drums of war as its economy worsens and its leaders seek to hold the slippery reigns of power. Such periods of economic strife will begin to grow in intensity particularly following 2002.85 and moving into 2007.15. Only when economic chaos reaches a sudden state of eruption is it possible to see a successful revolution. The government was not prepared in Indonesia. However, unless a complete shock takes place in China and Russia, it is far more likely that these two nations will not fall to internal revolution but will seek to turn the economic tides against their neighbors. These are basic facts of history that cannot be denied. War is directly linked to the economic fate of mankind. Undermine the economy and you will create the next Hitler.

 

During the American Revolution, World War I and World War II, the act of counterfeiting the currency of your enemy was but one means of warfare intent upon undermining their economy. The dark side to investigating the business cycle is clearly exposing the map through which an enemy can exploit your economy at the precise moment of maximum intensity thereby creating the greatest amount of economic instability. I suppose it is like splitting the atom. The power can be used to light a city or harnessed to destroy it. We must always face that plus and minus no matter what field one seeks to explore.

 

The financial markets will contract globally. The untold hidden losses within the Japanese financial system are slowly bubbling to the surface. However, as new mark-to-market rules approach on April 1st, 2001, the sins of the past will all be forced into the open light of day and those who have thought that economic recovery was underway will be shocked by what they will still face. While the US market may yet contract into 2000, the flicker of hope for one more rally into 2002.85 exists as long as the rest of the world remains so uncertain. But for the US market to survive into 2002, it must also retest support going into 2000. Without a pull back, the global instability will create a dangerous economic situation in the years ahead. It is clear that a high in 2002/2003 for the US market may be followed by a crash, but the shift in capital investment will then move back toward the tangible sectors that have been left behind.

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Ouch, spot on! Well I've followed his advice with energy and juniors and only 30% down would be wonderful! That said, he gives a very good arguement for the fundamentals in energy, etc so I give him the benefit of the doubt (plus I owe him a lot over the years). But then had I followed Saxena, who agrees with him but is prepared to buy and sell, I would not be down so much. Saxena has taught me buy and hold is dead (and to investigate some technical analysis to supplement the fundamental analysis). Puplava over the last few week has worried me with his comments now his back (as a fund manager) is presumably against the wall (I review his holdings each quarter so know he must be hurting). His behaviour was largely the impetus for this thread. This week's slagging off of "mark to market" was a wake up call. Happy to take the unrealised gains on the way up but not on the way down. I'm an accountant - consistency rules! And that's why we have financial statements with disclosure about such things. That said, I have huge respect and admiration for both of them.

Puplava was good if you got in early enough on many of his suggestions. I think however, that his de-coupling argument has simply under-estimated the way markets behave. The reality is that when markets panic, more or less everything falls and the irony is that the deleveraging that JP and JL talk about was always likely to hit resource stocks hard because of the Hedge fund involvement. He also called the housing market low wrong, suggested a while back that the time might be right to get back into technology and his hyperinflation approach saw him calling new highs on the Dow, which perhaps jokingly, he suggested Dow 50,000 or 100,000 once. All of this may happen in due course, and in a true hyperinflation that is what I would expect to see, but to date his almost tunnel vision approach has missed the impact of the massive asset deflation that is currently going on around the world.

 

It should lso be remembered that Puplava and many of his guests are in the wealth management business, they are not just saying buy physical, they buy stocks, bonds, funds, trade the market, etc and take fees in fiat. How many of them would except payment in gold or silver? And who do they bank with? If you invest with them, are you safe right now? The truth is that no one is safe until things settle down.

 

Having said all that, I still think his broadcast is worth listening to.

 

 

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Bob Hoye has called these markets better than anyone imo. From the collapse in base metals prices 18 months ago to the collapse in oil to the stock market collapse to the silver:gold ratio going back to 100 (now 85-90) .

 

Puplava is inspiring and charismatic but if you followed his advice you would be losing a fortune.

 

.....

 

Mish is V. good too. But gives opinion rather than specific trade advice.

 

Great thread.

 

I had been listening to FS first upon my weekly downloading session, however I wish it had been Bob Hoye and Mish a bit more. Followed/agreed with the gold juniors theory...

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Howe Street is one of my main sources of podcast.

 

 

Fence,

You are doing a great job here. Very useful and interesting.

I've added this thread to my list of notable threads :D

 

Many thanks. Great to share and hear other opinions. More to come. Got me thinking......maybe I read too much!

 

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Financial Sense

o Lose their way sometimes (e.g. Oreilo (sp?) theory, constantly moving oil price targets, etc).

- Oreo theory is actually working out quite correctly. + (unlike the market) they taste good :lol:

 

o Seem a bit blinkered currently with inane emphasis on definitions of inflation/deflation, peak oil, etc.

IMO yep definately went overboard on the peak oil thing at least in the near term, moving their target price higher and higher each time it got hit. I think he needs to re-think what a bubble can be. Am waiting for him to admit he got that one wrong, doesnt look like he will.

o Will always remain a favourite but I no longer believe or trust all they say (which is a good lesson).

I find it entertaining but have to keep one foot in reality not to get too swept along with their flow.

 

+ They are a little bit too much "conspiracy theorists" for my liking

 

I have to say however just after Bear Sterns went down, JP did say they clock was ticking for Lehman's, "tick tock". I thought that that was naughty at the time but events have proved him right - although I dont think he repeated it after.

 

Also JP did once also suggest there are pressures on the Euro in a similar tick tock manner. At the time I thought that was really naughty. Now Im not so sure.

 

JP's mate John is also losing it: "This is not deflation it's deleveraging" was a comment that many here could have taken him up on.

agree - the inflation/deflation thing is not yet decided, although deflation seems to have edged ahead recently

 

Still good listening though, just waiting for the day he admits deflation is a possibility.

IMO If/when that day comes, he will say deflation to be followed by hyper inflation in the near future! :lol:

 

The rising star must be Mish.

[/color]Mish did impress me in the CWR interview a few months back - I felt his reasoning was way above James Turks.

Will be looking through your posts with interest as I feel I need to spread my podcasts a bit further around - am audio only enabled at present however. I only have a limited amount of time I can spend browsing online, although I can print bits off to read. Am looking for someone who hits the nail on the head in a concise manner. Mish?

 

And Frizzers, CWR does not come out often enough ;)

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