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Peak Oil - Bull or Bear?

Peak Oil - Bull or Bear?  

104 members have voted

  1. 1. Peak Oil - Overhyped alarmism

    • I'm a Peak Oil bull. It's over-hyped alarmism
    • I'm a Peak Oil bear. This has the potential to take down our civilisation
    • Undecided. It will hurt a but, but ultimately technology will resolve the issue
    • Undecided. I don't really know much about it, thats why I am looking around this board

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What most people fail to appreciate is the scale of the problem.


Check out sites like theoildrum and lifeafterthecrash and chrismartenson.com.


The scariest aspect for densely populated counties is of the problem is food.


Without cheap oil, ( and hence also cheap fertilizer) farm productivity will drop.

The obesity epidemic will become a thing of the past !!!!!!!


Hi . 1st post. (Guess I should introduce myself in the appropriate place at some point. Came here from housepricecrash- partly drawn in by cgnao's accurate short term economic analysis. My dad used to go on about US debt in the 80's)


I think peak oil will manifest in the UK as a slow winding down of economic activity, in fits and starts, with the occasional city riots, as per the the 70's 80's 90's! Ok we are having huge shifts in the economy+ financial world, but I dont think things will get suddenly awful, or horrific (for the great majority), as others seem to think. A little bit of oil goes a long way to improve farm productivity, and there's so much slack in the system in the way that we waste oil. Nature puts most of the (solar) energy in for the food we eat. The fertilizer is just a 'vitamin pill' for the sick soil. Organic production with fossil fuel mechanical assistance can produce enough, especially when you consider all the waste in the food production+ consumption.


The obesity we have is often caused by malnutrition, bad hydrogenated fats in cheap manufactured food which accumulates because the body cant process it. With more organic farming+ focus on healthy food production hopefully the standard diet will improve, as it is often said it did during the rationing of WWII. Think the fashion for skinny models has peaked though!


Farm productivity in calories/acre might drop , but organic farming is prospering, and calories+vitamins/acre is on the rise!


:) c.m


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I've become aware of Abiogenic petroleum origin. This should mitigate the effects of Peak Oil. In brief oil is formed by an inorganic process involving the earths mantle.





Abiogenic hypotheses were revived in the last half of the twentieth century by Russian and Ukrainian scientists, and more interest was generated in the West by the publication in 1999 of The Deep Hot Biosphere by Thomas Gold. Gold cited the discovery of thermophile bacteria in the Earth's crust as new support for the hypothesis, postulating that these bacteria could explain the existence of certain biomarkers in extracted petroleum.[5]





The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is not the work of any one single man -- nor of a few men. The modern theory was developed by hundreds of scientists in the (now former) U.S.S.R., including many of the finest geologists, geochemists, geophysicists, and thermodynamicists of that country. There have now been more than two generations of geologists, geophysicists, chemists, and other scientists in the U.S.S.R. who have worked upon and contributed to the development of the modern theory.




Hydocarbons are found all over the solar system




The modern theory is presently applied extensively throughout the former U.S.S.R. as the guiding perspective for petroleum exploration and development projects. There are presently more than 80 oil and gas fields in the Caspian district alone which were explored and developed by applying the perspective of the modern theory and which produce from the crystalline basement rock. (Krayushkin, Chebanenko et al. 1994) Similarly, such exploration in the western Siberia cratonic-rift sedimentary basin has developed 90 petroleum fields of which 80 produce either partly or entirely from the crystalline basement.



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Long article and quite complex but makes the case, that all the downturns since 1970 are due to preceding oil price volatility though nearly all have been generally ascribed to other causes.


1987 crash is seen as a clincher - oil price volatity (due to OPEC members in conflict) preceded it and no other cause has been identified.


It goes on to postulate that those in the know have fleesed the financial system to get out wealthy not as a conspiracy but they have acted independently because they know the system is on the point of total collapse due to peak oil.



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