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G0ldfinger

HYPERINFLATION

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I am thinking about starting a new thread:

 

Falling food and energy prices causing riots all over the world

Hyper-deflation threatens to make everyone insanely rich

 

The reason is that I don't want to spoil this thread or other people's with sarcasm, but on the other hand it would be a nice vehicle to let off some steam and lead the deflation arguments ad absurdum. What do people think?

 

The thought is to be a little like John Stewart's Today Show - the comedy stuff is often having the more accurate news (or general message) than the mainstream.

 

General topics could be:

 

- "Let them eat cake"

- "If you can't afford rice, by a yacht!"

- "Ben is NOT printing money"

- "People have no money in their hands"

- "One billion Chinese don't matter"

- "Money always sleeps"

- "This is totally unexpected"

- "Gold approaching $200"

- "People now using silver to wire their homes"

- ...

 

Comments are welcome.

 

Ha ha

 

another topic could be

"Property is safe haven""

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There are deflationistas out there. Sure, soon they will all claim that they have always been inflationistas, but we know better. They were explaining to us how money would sit useless on bank balance sheets etc., not being able to cause any increases in CPI or RPI. They will be deadwrong, and the world should know, so people can better determine who to listen to, and who to better ignore no matter how beautifully they shape their words (thinking of Prechter...).

 

It is probably true that the majority of deflationists predicted a contraction with falling prices followed by rising prices. More or less that panned out one way or another. Some prices in the largest economy in the world are still falling. We still do not know what will happen when Brazil india and China eventually get their own economies into a position where they can expect stability. China for example could very soon have a quite severe housing correction, where for example they have 20 year highs in bank reserve requirements which they keep increasing and second homes have just had deposits increased from 50% to 60%. Given the reality most chinese are very poor and presumably do not have mortgages it is possible the richer will take the brunt of whatever is coming and the higher protein western type food inflation there will moderate as people return to traditional chinese food.

 

What will happen as all that 'fiat wealth' evaporates? What will happen to the price of their imported high protein foods and copper etc etc?

 

Why is it so important to attack the case for demand created inflation via the high population rapidly expanding countries where most people might think that cannot be sustained at 8% for many more years?

 

Who is going to be the greater fool? The person who says that governments will have a notional austerity programme and aim for survival or those that say they will spend like no tomorrow towards certain distruction?

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This is a good chart and is central to my investment choices.

 

Inflation is back on.

 

How many years do you think are left before the EVENT takes place?

Are they going to keep the fiat charade going for another decade?

 

 

The little stagnation since early 2009 has now been overcome, and money supply is back to exploding exponentially.

 

Hold on to your hats, everyone!

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/US_MZM.html

US_MZM.png

 

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Who is going to be the greater fool? The person who says that governments will have a notional austerity programme and aim for survival or those that say they will spend like no tomorrow towards certain distruction?

Real austerity would mean certain destruction for the government of any larger Western economy.

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How many years do you think are left before the EVENT takes place?

Are they going to keep the fiat charade going for another decade?

We're in the event right now, and it could go on for a long time before some common sense returns into fiscal and financial policy. My guess is that food and energy inflation is here to stay for 5-10 years.

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Real austerity would mean certain destruction for the government of any larger Western economy.

 

 

I suppose you are excluding the Germans from this larger group?

 

Are you really saying the Germans are not capable of living differently so that living simply is seen as a virtue and something to be proud of?

 

I think it is worth noting for example that the Germans have now decided they can take the hit on restructuring Greeces debt so that the Germans are also are punished for their lending decisions and a degree of reality returns. And you can probably add in the losses for Ireland already.

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I suppose ...

I would claim that any government of a larger Western economy (yes, including Germany) will NOT survive the next elections should they start paying back debt rather than accumulating more and more. And that is real austerity in my book. The corresponding economies would implode.

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I would claim that any government of a larger Western economy (yes, including Germany) will NOT survive the next elections should they start paying back debt rather than accumulating more and more. And that is real austerity in my book. The corresponding economies would implode.

 

Maybe we can agree that even if 90% of us in the West are having a hard time for the next 20 years or more and the debt is somewhat devalued with inflation we will be content to realise that none of us are really experiencing austerity compared to what is happening in the rest of the world where once again starvation and total misery is the norm rather than the exception?

 

 

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We're in the event right now, and it could go on for a long time before some common sense returns into fiscal and financial policy. My guess is that food and energy inflation is here to stay for 5-10 years.

 

People are getting squeezed to the pips right NOW!!! :o .

If the squeeze continues unabated at the current rate i cant see it lasting much beyond 2012/13.

Only the leanest and fittest will survive this ever unfolding/developing economic catastrophy. :(

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CREEP CREEP CREEP!!!!!!

 

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures $/barrel Tue 21:15 101.60 +0.59 +0.6

Brent Crude Oil Spot $/barrel Tue 16:15 101.29 +1.39 +1.4

 

 

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There are deflationistas out there. Sure, soon they will all claim that they have always been inflationistas, but we know better. They were explaining to us how money would sit useless on bank balance sheets etc., not being able to cause any increases in CPI or RPI. They will be deadwrong, and the world should know, so people can better determine who to listen to, and who to better ignore no matter how beautifully they shape their words (thinking of Prechter...).

 

I see deflation every day.

 

The amount of petrol I can buy for £20 has deflated.

 

The value of my cash savings has deflated.

 

Blocks of cheese have deflated - from 500g to 400, some now 350g.

 

Even my Internet speed seems to have deflated. :P

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The amount of gasoline people get for their money seems to be deflating.

 

I say: dont drive, and the price will crash down. And, no, 1 billion Chinese and 1 billion Indians don't matter. They should walk too anyway.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-02/g...alysts-say.html

U.S. Gasoline at the Pump May Rise to $3.50 a Gallon by May

...

U.S. gasoline at the pump may rise 13 percent by May as crude oil in New York tops $100 a barrel and a recovering economy boosts fuel demand, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

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http://jsmineset.com/2011/02/02/hourly-act...trader-dan-400/

Another day, another all time record high in commodity prices as the CCI (Continuous Commodity Index) did it yet again. Corn, wheat and soybeans all put in 30 month highs with wheat now having effectively doubled in price since June of last year.

Must be a typo as he certainly means "made a new all-time low", and soon the whole world will be worth less than one (of many gazillion) Federal Reserve Notes, hence hyper-deflation.

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The Fed is making complete fools out of China and Japan. They worked very hard the past 40 years to accumulate their savings, while the Fed printed theirs up in a few months time with no work at all. :lol: :lol:

 

How long will they get away with it?

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/120372fc-2e48-11...l#ixzz1CsxM51lv

Fed passes China in Treasury holdings

...

By June [the Fed] will have accumulated some $1,600bn of Treasury securities, likely to be in the vicinity of China and Japan’s combined holdings,” said Richard Gilhooly, a strategist at TD Securities. “The New York Fed surpassed China in the past month as the largest holder of US Treasury securities,” he noted.

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http://jsmineset.com/2011/02/02/hourly-act...trader-dan-400/

 

Must be a typo as he certainly means "made a new all-time low", and soon the whole world will be worth less than one (of many gazillion) Federal Reserve Notes, hence hyper-deflation.

Didn't Prechter say in a recent FSN interview that if the CRB hit a new all time high that it would be one of the things that told him his prognosis was wrong.

 

 

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Didn't Prechter say in a recent FSN interview that if the CRB hit a new all time high that it would be one of the things that told him his prognosis was wrong.

Yeah, I sort of remember that too. That will be an interesting one to follow up for JP.

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Yeah, I sort of remember that too. That will be an interesting one to follow up for JP.

Just found a post about it over at 24k;

 

Just listened to the FSN Top Interviews 2010: Robert Prechter, to remind myself what the great deflationist was talking about earlier in the year.

 

Of interest Jim asked Robert towards the end of the interview (53.25) "What would like to see before you changed your position on deflation?"

 

Robert replies "If the major benchmarks of credit that were pushed up by credit make new highs" He then list some indexes one of which is the CRB which is graphed above.

 

So Prechter himself has said that if the CRB breaks out to new all time highs that he is wrong on deflation, that has now happened!

 

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-se...-final-end-game

 

 

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Didn't Prechter say in a recent FSN interview that if the CRB hit a new all time high that it would be one of the things that told him his prognosis was wrong.

YES HE DID!!! :blink:

 

OH DEAR deflationistas.

 

WARNING: TIME TO REMOVE HEAD FROM SAND. :lol:

 

Remind me again who was the pied piper?

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Amount of chocolate in a Dairy Milk deflating ...

 

Cadbury is cutting the size of its Dairy Milk bar and is blaming "economic reasons" for the decision to downsize.

 

The firm says it's having to slash the size of its products because if it didn't, prices would have to rise.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/12346546

 

It will be interesting to see the reaction to this. Will some people consider product substitution, going for a different product or brand?

 

I switched from branded to supermarket own-brand breakfast cereal, probably slightly cheaper processing and raw material cost due to lower quality standards, but the main cost difference is likely on marketing and advertising spend.

 

I should be thankful I have the option of product substitution, you can't trade down from rice or maize meal.

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Didn't Prechter say in a recent FSN interview that if the CRB hit a new all time high that it would be one of the things that told him his prognosis was wrong.

I know the interview you are talking about. But wasn't the CRB at higher levels at end of June 2008 than today??

If someone knows, please say. My memory says we got 470 something in 2008 and today is 350 something (?). Prechter will tell you this is just an expected fib.retracement or something.

Prechter also said Dow at higher levels than the old peak and the peak in US Housing market. He said, from memory, 'then I would have to conceed that those brilliant people in the Fed had created more credit faster than debt could be retired...''

 

If Prechter is right on the EW count for the next leg down we won't have to wait too long before we see what happens. So let's keep calm, everyone.

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