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G0ldfinger

UK House prices: News & Views

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Still 50% over target, also what's falling ipods,ipads can you eat them do they keep you warm, do you buy them daily?

Yep, know what you mean, although apparently it was falling food prices from supermarket competition that was responsible for the "slightly less" bad figure.

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Home asking price index up 0.4% MoM but down Yoy 0.9%

 

Interesting comment on the 'hidden' losses associated with investing in property when it doesn't keep up with inflation. Quite alarming.

 

http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/

And they also then mention the erosion of your big mortgage (some more on Lloyds Halifax data method thread).

 

So inflation falls back (a little) and now unemployment down also. Happy days (falls may only be 10% after all this year :rolleyes: )

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And they also then mention the erosion of your big mortgage (some more on Lloyds Halifax data method thread).

So inflation falls back (a little) and now unemployment down also. Happy days (falls may only be 10% after all this year :rolleyes: )

THAT IS A COMMON MISCONCEPTION...

 

Inflation only "erodes away" you mortgage, if your pay rises.

 

If inflation picks up, and your salary does not, the mortgage becomes a BIGGER burden rather than a smaller one, because other essentials - like food and energy - grab more of your income, leaving less to cover the mortgage.

 

This issue seems to separate the financially naive (and there are plenty of Estate Agents making this silly claim) from those who have some deeper understanding of inflationary dynamics.

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THAT IS A COMMON MISCONCEPTION...

 

Inflation only "erodes away" you mortgage, if your pay rises.

 

If inflation picks up, and your salary does not, the mortgage becomes a BIGGER burden rather than a smaller one, because other essentials - like food and energy - grab more of your income, leaving less to cover the mortgage.

 

This issue seems to separate the financially naive (and there are plenty of Estate Agents making this silly claim) from those who have some deeper understanding of inflationary dynamics.

No misconception, with wage rises in UK ~2.5% as we speak, the debt is being eroded.

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No misconception, with wage rises in UK ~2.5% as we speak, the debt is being eroded.

 

Inflation at 4% then that's a wage cut.

 

But who's getting 2.5% rise anyway?

 

Interesting retail sales figures this month, maybe Easter is the wrong date this year.

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Inflation at 4% then that's a wage cut.

 

But who's getting 2.5% rise anyway?

 

Interesting retail sales figures this month, maybe Easter is the wrong date this year.

Yes, but if your debt is fixed, that's still an erosion of the debt.

 

Minimum wage is going up 2.5% :rolleyes:

 

Actual average wage rise ~2.3%

 

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=10

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Interesting retail sales figures this month, maybe Easter is the wrong date this year.

 

Haha yes.

 

They were actually trying to spin this as deflationary i.e. inflation will have to fall because people have stopped spending because prices have gone up too much!

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Yes, but if your debt is fixed, that's still an erosion of the debt.

 

Minimum wage is going up 2.5% :rolleyes:

 

Yes but there will be a tipping point on the ability to service the debt. :rolleyes:

 

Hence my reference to the retail figures.

 

Just one example NMW workers tend to get public transport right, in the West Midlands fares increased by 10% last year.

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Yes, but if your debt is fixed, that's still an erosion of the debt.

 

Minimum wage is going up 2.5% :rolleyes:

 

Actual average wage rise ~2.3%

 

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=10

 

This is about a 50% reduction. All 7n blocks by the way :lol: :lol: :lol: which means nothing unless you have worked with them, they are twice as heavy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Library of Birmingham: Marlborough Brickwork Limited

 

 

Bricklaying Roles: Job Description

 

Requirements

 

• Self employed face work bricklayers

• Fully CSCS carded – applicable bricklayer card, minimum NVQ Level 2 or equivalent

• Majority of work to be undertaken is block work with a mixture of face and standard work, generally the works are internal and we will require skilled operatives who can build to a high standard of work for this prestigious project.

• Suitable candidates will be interviewed

 

Contract Details

• Hours of work: 07.30 – 16.30 Monday to Thursday. 07.30 – 15.30 Friday. Weekend working is not envisaged at this point in time but may be required at some point by agreement

• The works are set to commence April 2011 and last approx. 1 year with possible continuity available.

• Rates of Pay is by price work rates as detailed below:

 

 

Blockwork - 100mm – Flush joint non fair faced finish to both sides £6.75 m2

Blockwork - 140mm - Flush joint non fair faced finish to both sides £7.75 m2

Blockwork – 140mm Radius – Flush joint non fair faced finish to both sides £10.00 m2

Blockwork – 140mm Paint grade – Bucket handle joint to one side £8.25 m2

Blockwork – 140mm Paint grade – Bucket handle joint to both sides £8.50 m2

Blockwork – 215mm dense blockwork - Flush joint non fair faced finish to both sides £15.00 m2

Blockwork – 215mm dense blockwork – Bucket handle joint to one side £15.50 m2

Blockwork – 215mm dense blockwork – Bucket handle joint to both sides £15.75 m2

Insulation £0.50 m2

Closing cavities £0.50 m

Frame cramps £0.40 nr

Bed Joint Reinforcement £0.25 lm

Concrete Lintels £3.50 lm

Drill and fix head restraint £0.50 nr

Slotted channel head restraint £0.05 nr

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No misconception, with wage rises in UK ~2.5% as we speak, the debt is being eroded.

That's not much.

In fact, you need to look at AFTER TAX INCOMES, not just Gross Incomes.

And I think at a 2.5% growth rate, in a rising tax environment, you will find after (rising) food costs and (rising) energy costs, there is less money to cover a mortgage

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That's not much.

In fact, you need to look at AFTER TAX INCOMES, not just Gross Incomes.

And I think at a 2.5% growth rate, in a rising tax environment, you will find after (rising) food costs and (rising) energy costs, there is less money to cover a mortgage

 

And I think the pound is going to get spit roasted. I mean, spending is still huge, our trade gap is huge, WTF is keeping the pound at $1.63 I think it was a few day ago?

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The London market has gone very very quiet especially prime positions since April 2011. Maybe it is a new seasonal trend or is the market now telling us something is afoot.

 

Stamp duty changes maybe?

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The London market has gone very very quiet especially prime positions since April 2011. Maybe it is a new seasonal trend or is the market now telling us something is afoot.

So mamy properties are now being marketed in HK,

which suggests that they are not selling well in their home markets of the UK and Oz

 

It is a good time to have a long barge pole, with which not to touch things

 

Barge_Pole_At_Bradford_on_von_Lock_Gates_A8V9293.jpg

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That's not much.

In fact, you need to look at AFTER TAX INCOMES, not just Gross Incomes.

And I think at a 2.5% growth rate, in a rising tax environment, you will find after (rising) food costs and (rising) energy costs, there is less money to cover a mortgage

OK, but, that's an average, and if it's a fixed rate and if you actually earn less than 44K (like the vast majority) there is NOT a tax increase (yes, VAT up, but tax allowance UP, and council tax essentially frozen).

 

Manufacturing ~4 to 5% (except one month (Feb) anomaly)

 

Finance ~ 5%

Servicers ~4.5%

 

All on radio 5 Live today.

 

Like it or not, a lot of people (not including me by the way) are having good wage rises.

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And I think the pound is going to get spit roasted. I mean, spending is still huge, our trade gap is huge, WTF is keeping the pound at $1.63 I think it was a few day ago?

Well that's easy, the US is in just as much s**t (if not more) than us! (see Euro ~90p, just before my first foreign holiday (Italy), in 3 years! :angry: ).

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/8447555/Workers-under-pressure-as-pay-growth-slows.html

 

I wonder why there is no reference to the construction industry in the article.

 

Bankers seem to be doing ok though.

After reading the rates you posted earlier, I guess you know the answer to that already. Assume the position!

 

To be honest, I'm really depressed by your earlier post. It really has made me consider selling up again to buy back later or even go for my dream of a full self build (as opposed to increasingly involved renovations - rebuilds over the years) which would also be better for VAT too.

 

It is a good time to have a long barge pole, with which not to touch things

 

Ever get that sinking feeling? :D

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Dr Bubb

 

I would suggest you warn Hong Kong/.Chinese buyers about new builds in London. I recall Dickens yard you mentioned in Ealing. I have just advised a couple of lenders on the background to a new build in Ealing Common were the vast majority were Chinese investors who bought under companies held in the Virgin Islands. These new builds are trying to be resold onto the market. Surveyors are marking the value of these flats with very big haircuts. It would appear that fraud is still alive and well except new suckers are being sought in the far east.

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OK, but, that's an average, and if it's a fixed rate and if you actually earn less than 44K (like the vast majority) there is NOT a tax increase (yes, VAT up, but tax allowance UP, and council tax essentially frozen).

 

Manufacturing ~4 to 5% (except one month (Feb) anomaly)

 

Finance ~ 5%

Servicers ~4.5%

 

All on radio 5 Live today.

 

Like it or not, a lot of people (not including me by the way) are having good wage rises.

True. I agree with you.

And those are likely to be the main folks buying property now : the ones getting good pay rises and/or bonuses - or some other sort of windfall.

 

But will this trickle of buying, be enough to maintain prices?

 

Some other people will be forced to sell due to "circumstances" - economic or other. And indeed, for every family with above median income growth, there will be another with below median income growth. Buying and selling from the economic factor should tend to balance out, and then there will be other important reasons to sell: death, divorce, downsizing (by boomers), and so I seeing prices lower as the Spring seasonal buying fades away.

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Dr Bubb

 

I would suggest you warn Hong Kong/.Chinese buyers about new builds in London. I recall Dickens yard you mentioned in Ealing. I have just advised a couple of lenders on the background to a new build in Ealing Common were the vast majority were Chinese investors who bought under companies held in the Virgin Islands. These new builds are trying to be resold onto the market. Surveyors are marking the value of these flats with very big haircuts. It would appear that fraud is still alive and well except new suckers are being sought in the far east.

Well, I am not really in a position to "advise" anyone. But if someone asks my opinion, I reckon you can work out what it will be.

 

I gather you think the property is over-priced. I know where Ealing is, and so the prices should be far below Central London. But I think the vendors are playing up the new rail connection, to claim that it will be possible to commute from Ealing more quickly in the future. There may be something in that, but I would rather buy at a discount in 2-3 years time when some buyers may default.

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I will do a break down of Central and West London values on a £sqft shortly. Ealing new builds are grossly overvalued and are not selling.

The cross tram link will not happen. As geography goes Ealing is actually one of the best areas in London for tube/transport connections yet it is not well perceived with London buyers.

 

Stay clear of new builds this part of London and stick with converted period properties. At present these are averaging between £380 - £420sqft with average rental yields at present circa 4.3-4.8%. The market in this part of London is struggling especially flats.

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Like it or not, a lot of people (not including me by the way) are having good wage rises.

 

And, as everyone knows, prices are set at the margins. You only need one person earning the requisite money to buy a house - you don't need the whole population earning the requisite money. And thinking in terms of averages etc. doesn't help either - in an extreme situation you might only sell one house a year in a town - but as long as one sells it sets the price for the others.

 

I know this can't go on forever ... I know that in 20 or 30 years time, eventually, sometime, there will not be enough people earning enough money to keep the market where it is ... but, by then, my sons might be getting on for 50 years of age. And if gradual inflation keeps the boat afloat, somehow, in the intervening period - all we are going to see is a change in the structure of home ownership with fewer people owning more properties and more people renting.

 

I think it's a pretty depressing outlook.

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Well, I am not really in a position to "advise" anyone. But if someone asks my opinion, I reckon you can work out what it will be.

 

I gather you think the property is over-priced. I know where Ealing is, and so the prices should be far below Central London. But I think the vendors are playing up the new rail connection, to claim that it will be possible to commute from Ealing more quickly in the future. There may be something in that, but I would rather buy at a discount in 2-3 years time when some buyers may default.

 

It's been a few years since I went to school in Ealing but, even 40 years ago, the mainline train from Ealing Broadway to Paddington took about 10 minutes. Okay still a hike to the City, but very convenient for the West End. Much of Ealing is leafy and pleasant so I'm not surprised that prices are as insane as they are (well I am - but that's a different matter - the whole country seems to be stark raving to me).

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