UK House prices: News & Views

[God Bear]

I believe you have made an error.

 

The 2 quotes I have picked out below are not consistent. How can a higher MoM make the YoY smaller?

 

Apologies in advance if it is ME who has made the error and I will be grateful if you could point this out to me.

 

- Oct-Nov 2009 was 0.45%, even if this month's figures are completely flat, this will bring YoY down below 1%.

i.e. If MoM = 0%, YoY will be below 1%

 

- Any MoM reading below 1% will bring the YoY% below zero!

i.e if Mom = 0.5%, YoY will be below 0%

[God Bear]

Nov 2009/ 167,451

Dec 2009/ 168,763

Jan 2010/ 169,484

 

 

As these months fall out of the Halifax YoY figures in the next few months, this index will be turning a nice deep shade of RED!!

 

I believe you have misunderstood by 180 degrees.

 

In Feb 2011, the three bigger numbers fall out as you have pointed out. However, this give us the smaller Feb 2010 figure for our new YoY calculation. This plays in to the hands of the housing bulls.

 

Apologies in advance if it is ME who has misunderstood by a number of degrees and I will be grateful if you could point this out to me.

 

[Van]

I believe you have made an error.

 

The 2 quotes I have picked out below are not consistent. How can a higher MoM make the YoY smaller?

 

Apologies in advance if it is ME who has made the error and I will be grateful if you could pint this out to me.

 

 

i.e. If MoM = 0%, YoY will be below 1%

 

 

i.e if Mom = 0.5%, YoY will be below 0%

 

 

Sorry, I meant any MoM drop of 1% or more will take YoY negative, so -1% or worse.

 

 

As I've already highlighted though Halifax is already technically YoY negative, and it is only the fact that they use the 3monthly average to calculate YoY is why it still appears positive. I'm confident that H'fax/N'wide will both be YoY negative in the next 1 or 2 months, and that it will get worse as last year's figures fall out of the current YoY calculations.

 

 

 

[malvern hills]

200 oz has now been broken very decisively to the downside.

 

(I can't believe how precisely this chart is following my years old arrow. )

 

 

Well done GF, it is quite an amazing call.

 

I always wonder what your avatar will change to when the graph gets to the end of the arrow?

 

[Van]

I believe you have misunderstood by 180 degrees.

 

In Feb 2011, the three bigger numbers fall out as you have pointed out. However, this give us the smaller Feb 2010 figure for our new YoY calculation. This plays in to the hands of the housing bulls.

 

Apologies in advance if it is ME who has misunderstood by a number of degrees and I will be grateful if you could point this out to me.

 

No, the figures will work to the bears' advantage. Nov10/Dec10/Jan11 will need to match the monthly increases of last year just to keep the YoY figure flat. Eg, if there is no rise at all in house prices in the next 3 months, then we will look something like this:

 

 

Jan 2010/ 169,484

...

Oct 2010 164,990

...

Jan 2011/ 164,990 (hypothetical)

 

 

 

Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 YoY = -2.65%

[God Bear]

No, the figures will work to the bears' advantage. Nov10/Dec10/Jan11 will need to match the monthly increases of last year just to keep the YoY figure flat. Eg, if there is no rise at all in house prices in the next 3 months, then we will look something like this:

 

 

Jan 2010/ 169,484

...

Oct 2010 164,990

...

Jan 2011/ 164,990 (hypothetical)

 

 

 

Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 YoY = -2.65%

I understand now.

 

I thought you meant something different when you wrote

As these months fall out of the Halifax YoY figures in the next few months

 

I thought ' fall out' would mean 'removed'. i.e. we are looking at Feb 2010

 

Anyway, I think it’s fair to say the Halifax figures at the backend of 2009 were surprisingly high. This was possibly caused by the Stamp Duty holiday, but at the same time it could also have been caused by the mix adjustment method used by Halifax. Given that we don’t actually see the ‘mix’ we can’t verify that the method is being applied properly. This means that Halifax could* adjust the mix to give them the best Christmas bonuses. Don’t be surprised to see some shockingly high figures again.

 

* In theory only. I’d never accuse them of actually tweaking the figures to suit their bonus requirements.

[G0ldfinger]

Well done GF, it is quite an amazing call.

 

I always wonder what your avatar will change to when the graph gets to the end of the arrow?

[malvern hills]

 

Quite!

 

But how do you think you will feel selling your Au for property- I think it could come as quite a wrench for long term holders . Something for us to prepare for mentally in the years ahead.

[drbubb]

I always wonder what your avatar will change to when the graph gets to the end of the arrow?

 

[fitkid]

Excellent GF

Th gold oz to house price ratio chart is my favourite i think it has a real meaning and truly shows the Au value against another tangible assett eventhough it is depreciating fast.

[fitkid]

I still retain a small property portfolio which is unlevaraged.The properties were 'purchased' many years ago before property was the most common/popular tv show and the most used word in the english language.I can remember clearly a friday night out in a popular local town in 2008 and EVERYONE i spoke to over the course of the evening was a property developer a property speculator a property landlord a property --------- etc etc etc.that was the REAL "SHOE SHINE BOY" momment for me.Having read Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841) (a must read and free download here http://manybooks.net/titles/mackaych2451824518-8.html ) a history of popular folly by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, many years ago it was like living his excellent reciting of the "tulipmania" "south sea bubble" the follie of john laws fiat experiment in 18th century france.ALL AS TRUE TODAY AS THEY EVERWHERE.

 

"THERE AINT NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN"

 

If i had been totally clinical i should have sold the properties and put all the proceeds into Au but as they were unleveraged and producing good yields i have retained them.would that classify me as RICH G definition as an "ASTUTE INVESTOR" or someone who was'nt so astute who missed a bigger better return by having further funds invested in PM's??

 

I can see a possibility for an ASTUTE investor returning to property when we have a rothschilds "BUY WHEN THERE IS BLOOD IN THE STREETS " momment not before.BUT if the catastrophic breakdown of the economy happens will the "ASTUTE" investor see property as an "ASTUTE" place to be ALLA the property experiences in rental yields in "WEIMAR" gemany as i recall the good dr's research into rental yields at that time elucidated that the rental yields were absolutely slaughtered.!!!

 

THATS IT THE GOOD DR AT HIS VERY BEST.AWSEOME DATA.

now who would want to be a 'LEVERAGED' BTL landlord in a potential repeat of this.

 

 

(DrBubb @ Jul 4 2009, 11:15 PM)

...

Housing/Rents as a Percentage of Household spending

 

WEIMAR - Living Costs, Family of Four

 

Weekly Cost : Total in Marks : - - - - Percentages - - - -

========== . . . . . . . . . . . : Food / Housing / Clothing

1914 (prewar) : ............ 21.5 : 46.5%/. 25.6% / .. 27.9%

January 1920 : .............. 164 : 52.4%/. 04.9% / .. 42.7%

January 1921 : .............. 218 : 63.8%/. 04.1% / .. 32.1%

January 1922 : .............. 396 : 64.8%/. 02.8% / .. 32.3%

July...... 1922 : ............ 1232 : 56.8%/. 01.1% / .. 42.0%

January 1923 : .......... 25,123 : 52.1%/. 01.2% / .. 46.7%

July...... 1923 : ........ 654,608 : 59.8%/. 00.4% / .. 39.8%

Nov. ..... 1923 : ... 14.408 Bn. : 64.9%/ 00.26% / .. 34.8%

 

source: Hyperinflation handout

 

Here it is : 0.26%, in Nov.1923, down from 25.6% in 1914.

That's 1/100th of its original percentage - an enormous collapse !!

...

[G0ldfinger]

Brilliant! I didn't see it first!

[drbubb]

Brilliant! I didn't see it first!

Whoops!

Change needed, now that you have "gone seasonal" on us:

[Peak Debt]

It seems as if the average property obsessed Brit is simply ignoring the fundamentals of massive State and private debt and is convinced that what is now happening, is just a hiatus and soon it will be back on the merry-go-round of money-for-nothing property flipping.

 

It is the same in Australia

 

 

I can never comprehend this love of debt

 

 

People want more debt, more and more

 

 

There is too much of it already

 

 

People aren't prepared for peak debt and they should be

 

 

Debt is the worlds greatest bubble

[fitkid]

The data reflects the fundamentals.The outlook is very gloomy.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11846182

 

House prices: Continued decline, says Land Registry

 

House prices continued to slide in October in England and Wales, according to the latest statistics from the Land Registry.

 

Prices fell by 0.8% compared with the previous month, leaving the average property valued at £165,505, it said.

 

Only London and the East of England registered property price rises compared with September.

 

The biggest fall was in Yorkshire and the Humber, where a 1.8% drop pushed down the average price to £126,292.

 

This was the second month in a row that month-on-month prices had dipped into negative territory on average across England and Wales, the Land Registry's figures show.

Prices remained 3.4% lower than a year earlier, but this figure has now shrunk for five consecutive months.

[signofthetimes]

Prices remained 3.4% lower than a year earlier, but this figure has now shrunk for five consecutive months.

 

that should read 3.4% higher, no?

 

 

[fitkid]

THE MASSES.

that should read 3.4% higher, no?

 

Yes the bbc need to correct their page.

But i dont believe the prices were higher at all there has been no transaction volume or any real market for the last 2 years except in the auction room.Where prices have been discounted heavily.ZIRP, LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS from a country wholly dependant on its property market for survival is the REAL SAD TRUTH.

 

An example a local commercial property came to market approx 12 months ago a former ethel austin retail outlet.It was marketed by the agent for £450,000.00.It recently ie last 3 weeks went to auction for a guide price of £250,000.00 -£275,000.00 and realised a sale at £300,000.00 at auction.The property has recently been tennanted by a local discount retailer on a rolling month contract with a 24 hour severance with a yield of £18,000.00 per annum.Someone clearly lost their brains or had a funny twitch in the auction room and forgot to pack their calculator.

I can easily see the tennant vacating and the yield being zero after xmas.The purchaser probably (very mistaken in my opinion) thought he was getting a bargain as the price was discounted from £450k to their bid of £300k but it is only worth £150k in a REALISTIC market.

NOW THAT FOR ME STIIL SHOWS PROPERTY FEVER IS STILL GRIPPING BRAINLESS BRITS.

[God Bear]

It is the same in Australia

 

 

I can never comprehend this love of debt

 

 

People want more debt, more and more

 

 

There is too much of it already

 

 

People aren't prepared for peak debt and they should be

 

 

Debt is the worlds greatest bubble

Hello Peak Debt

[Van]

Hometrack -0.8%, -1.1% YoY

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/no...demand-plummets

5th consecutive month of falls recorded.

 

 

Nationwide/Halifax figures are right around the corner. Nationwide should be very close to going YoY negative, and Halifax should almost certainly be YoY negative with the next set of figure.

 

[fitkid]

IT GOES ON JUDAH THE RACE (TO THE BOTTOM) IT GOES ON.

THIS DECLINE IS REMINISCENT OF THE ALL TIME RECORD WINNING OSCAR CLASSIC.

AND WE ALL KNOW THE ENDING ALREADY.

 

From:

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11862428

 

Mortgage approvals fall to six month low

The number of new mortgages being approved for house buyers has fallen for the sixth month in a row, Bank of England figures show.

 

There were 47,185 mortgage approvals in October, down slightly from September's level and 17% lower than in October 2009.

The data suggests that house sales will be stuck in a rut in the coming months.

 

Separately, the property website Hometrack said the average home was now taking nearly 10 weeks to sell.

 

This, it said, was the longest sale time for 17 months.

 

"The seasonal slowdown in the housing market has kicked in a month early, with demand for housing falling at the fastest rate for 23 months," said Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack.

 

"Concerns over the economic outlook on the back of recent spending cuts, together with widespread expectations that house prices are set for a period of retrenchment, are driving the continued weakness in demand."

 

 

[fitkid]

The sad circumstances for first time buyer brits.THEY CANT.!!!!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/11846403 vid from the beeb

 

More young couples are being forced to move in with flatmates because they can't afford their own place, property websites have told Newsbeat.

 

The number searching the internet for a shared, double room in a large house has soared since the start of the year.

 

Matt and Esther from Solihull near Birmingham explain why they are choosing to live with other people after they get married.

 

[neil324]

The sad circumstances for first time buyer brits.THEY CANT.!!!!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/11846403 vid from the beeb

 

More young couples are being forced to move in with flatmates because they can't afford their own place, property websites have told Newsbeat.

 

The number searching the internet for a shared, double room in a large house has soared since the start of the year.

 

Matt and Esther from Solihull near Birmingham explain why they are choosing to live with other people after they get married.

 

Not surprised Solihull being a desirable place to live.

[G0ldfinger]

183.5 oz is the newest figure.

 

[TrueNorth]

Goldfinger, please tell me, when did the chart hit the max (725)? Was it the spring/summer of 08? thanks.

[frizzers]

No, it was 2005.

 

GF you need to do a shorter-term chart too. 10 years or something