UK House prices: News & Views

[TW11]

Bit of a jump on UK 10 yr yield

[tallim]

I'm moving from South East to North West UK and I've just finished my checks on my new landlord to ensure he's getting a reasonable yield so I'm safe.

 

Based on the price history I think I'm moving to one of the main crash zones!

 

April 2003 - Bought new

April 2007 - Bought for 31.5% more than 2003 price

June 2009 - Bought at auction for 20% less than the 2003 new price, which is a whopping 39% less than the 2007 price

 

Landlord is now getting a gross yield of 6.3%

 

Auction transaction was not in the freely published land registry data as it was a repo, so I had to pay £4 to buy the latest information online. I assume he was a cash buyer as the registry info states Lender(s): None.

 

Mirror image property next door is currently advertised for sale on the open market at 19% more than landlord paid at auction.

[fitkid]

I'm moving from South East to North West UK and I've just finished my checks on my new landlord to ensure he's getting a reasonable yield so I'm safe.

 

Based on the price history I think I'm moving to one of the main crash zones!

 

April 2003 - Bought new

April 2007 - Bought for 31.5% more than 2003 price

June 2009 - Bought at auction for 20% less than the 2003 new price, which is a whopping 39% less than the 2007 price

 

Landlord is now getting a gross yield of 6.3%

 

Auction transaction was not in the freely published land registry data as it was a repo, so I had to pay £4 to buy the latest information online. I assume he was a cash buyer as the registry info states Lender(s): None.

 

Mirror image property next door is currently advertised for sale on the open market at 19% more than landlord paid at auction.

 

I'm moving from South East to North West UK and I've just finished my checks on my new landlord to ensure he's getting a reasonable yield so I'm safe.

 

What checks have you procurred to ensure your 'SAFETY'.?

[fitkid]

WHAT CHANCE HAVE THE SHEEPLE GOT WITH THE PROPOGANDA/LIE MACHINE MAKING HEADLINES LIKE THIS.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11796277

 

'Bidding war' for homes to rent

 

People looking for houses to rent in many parts of the UK are encountering a new hurdle in their hunt for a home.

 

Landlords, or more often their letting agents, are increasingly asking would-be tenants to compete by making "sealed bid" offers for the home they want.

 

The practice is relatively commonplace in the market to buy homes, but is seen as a new development in the rental sector.

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LAMBS TO THE SLAUGHTER!!!!

 

THE BTL BRIGADE LOVE IT THIS WILL ENSURE A NICE WEEKEND FOR THEM TO "FALSELY" BELIEVE THAT THE GOOD TIMES ARE BACK AND GETTING EVEN BETTER.IS IT TIME FOR PRAYERS "GOD FORGIVE THEM FOR THEY NO NOT WHAT THEY DO".

 

I thought this guy was the master of illusions but these people take illusion to a whole new level .In the words of G Edward Griffin "THESE PEOPLE ARE SCIENTISTS.

 

Edgar Mueller Super Artist

 

Hard to believe that these are drawn on a FLAT sidewalk surface

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[fitkid]

The illusions created by Edgar Mueller are "BREATHTAKING" but not even close to the "ILLUSSIONARY" world that has been created by the "ELITE" running the world that would stop your "HEART" literally.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He spent five days, working 12 hours a day, to create the 250 square metre

image of the crevasse, which, viewed from the correct angle, appears to be 3D.

He then persuaded passers-by to complete the illusion by pretending the

gaping hole was real.

 

'I wanted to play with positives and negatives to encourage people to think twice

about everything they see,' he said. 'It was a very scary scene, but when people

saw it they had great fun playing on it and pretending to fall into the earth.

'I like to think that later, when they returned home, they might reflect more on

what a frightening scenario it was and say, "Wow, that was actually pretty scary."

 

 

 

 

 

Mueller, who has previously painted a giant waterfall in Canada, said he was

Inspired by the British 'Pavement Picasso' Julian Beever, whose dramatic but

More gentle 3D street images have been featured in the Daily Mail.

 

This guy is amazing no matter how you look at it!

 

NOT A PATCH ON HELICOPTER BEN AND MARVELOUS MERVYN AND ALL THE OTHER CRONIES IN MY OPINION.

NOW THAT IS WHAT I CALL A REAL ILLUSION.ABRA CADABRA "MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY".WOW NOW THAT IS REALY IMPRESSIVE AND MOST PEOPLE HAVE NOT GOT A CLUE!!!!

[fitkid]

I see the housing game playing out like this.

1.the mortgage (death pledge/grip) market has been collapsed purely by design.

2.Most People are not even able to get a death grip even if they wanted one and i know for a FACT most stiil would if allowed or were facilatated even more so for the BTL brigade so people are forced to rent from the private sector BTL brigade as social housing has all but disappeared.40% of private sector housing tennancy is for social housing ie government liability.

3.The austerity cuts in housing benefits will be capped at £280 per week for two bed properties and £400 a week for four bed houses as IDS (Irritable bowel syndrome) so elequently stated this will "DRIVE THE RENTS DOWN" and "TELL THE LANDLORDS THE GAME IS OVER".

4.The time line for this to play out will be from the inception of the housing benefit cap due to come into effect from April next year.

5.THE WRITING IS CLEARLY ON THE WALL FOR EVEN THE MOST MYOPIC STOIC OPTIMISTIC BTL FRUITCAKE TO SEE.

AS IT IS CLEARLY STATED AND PUBLIC POLICY NOW SO SURELY THE ASTUTE INVESTOR WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EXIT BEFORE THE HERD SMELL THE FIRE AND THE HUGE RUSH STARTS.EVEN THOUGH IF YOU CANT SMELL IT KNOW YOU NEVER WILL.

6.Other considerations

Potential for capital appreciation.INVISIBLE.

Potential for unfreezing of death grip markets.Not in their master plan.

Move to a pure communism based society.GURANTEED.

Was Eric Arthur Blair aka George Orwell spot on.ABSOLUTELY (inside information )

 

Thats how i see it and remember i still retain a small property portfolio so ABSOLUTELY NO VESTED INTEREST FROM ME.Please note no shadowy conspiracy theories in the above just foresight and reading of the stated public information.

 

So remember in the words of CGNAO "DONT PANIC ,PANIC FIRST."100% GURANTEED.

 

[fitkid]

DOWN DOWN DOWN WE GO.!!!!!!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11828912

 

 

UK property sales down by 11%, HMRC says

 

Sales as well as prices are facing a new downturn UK property sales were down 11% in October from a year ago, according to HM Revenue & Customs, giving fresh evidence of the sector's downturn.

 

Just 79,000 residential properties were sold in October, HMRC said.

 

That was up 1,000 from September, but was 10,000 lower than in October last year.

 

The year-on-year fall suggests sales as well as prices are now coming under pressure as a result of mortgage rationing and economic uncertainty.

 

On Tuesday, the Nationwide building society, one of the UK's biggest lenders, suggested that house prices might continue falling in the coming year, after starting to slip in the past few months.

 

The lender said a key factor causing the subdued state of the market was a lack of consumer confidence, together with economic uncertainty because of the government's public spending cutbacks

 

[Rich Greenland]

Not in Bristol unfortunately. Prices up 3% according to the agent and it's making it harder for me to get a deal I'm working on. Even tho it's in a poorer area and prices have actually fallen there according to my impressionistic assessment, but the sample is too small for the land reg data to be meaningful. The macro data for the property type (Bristol-wide) tells a different story. Grrr! Pain in the a** as the deal has a gross yield of over 21% - that's right after 5 years it's free it has paid for itself. But I'm greedy I want a minimum discount on OMV of 30% as well.

[drbubb]

Bit of a jump on UK 10 yr yield

Andrew Sentance, who sits on the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), also said that keeping interest rates at record lows for too long could erode confidence in the central bank's 2% inflation target.

"The longer we keep interest rates at an exceptionally low level, the greater is the risk that Bank Rate would need to rise sharply in the future, creating a serious setback to business and consumer confidence," he said.

"We should seek to avoid such a sudden lurch in policy."

 

Dr Sentance has been calling for a quarter-point increase in interest rates since June.

He is the only MPC member to do so at a time when Britain's recovery has been in doubt due to aggressive fiscal tightening measures.

However he added that there was a risk that forecasters were underestimating the strength of private sector demand, as they did in the 1990s recession.

"There is a risk that we are making the same mistake again because of the preoccupation with downside risks following the financial crisis," he said.

 

The Bank of England base rate has remained at 0.5% since March 2009, while inflation has been running above target all year and looks set to stay raised until the end of 2011.

 

/see: http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/...Andrew_Sentance

 

If he cannot spell a word, how can he get out a flawless Sentence?

[drbubb]

BETTING on the low base... What if that view is wrong?

 

UPDATE 2-Nationwide B/S sees no UK house price slump

 

LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Nationwide Building Society [NAT.UL], Britain's second-biggest mortgage lender, reported a 26 percent jump in first-half profit, and said it did not expect big house price falls despite signs of property market weakness.

 

Nationwide, which publishes a closely watched monthly house price survey, said on Tuesday major price falls were unlikely in 2011 because continued low interest rates would keep mortgatges affordable and prevent a flood of distressed sales.

 

Mutually-owned Nationwide made an underlying pretax profit of 147 million pounds ($235 million) in the six months to end-September.

 

The improvement reflected a 44 percent drop in bad debts as a partial recovery in commmercial property prices since mid-2009 helped more customers avoid defaulting on loans.

 

Britain's retail banks have all reported stronger profits in the past year as tighter lending criteria and a tentative economic recovery have helped reduce loan impairments.

 

Mortgage and savings-focused Nationwide, the country's biggest customer-owned lender, has emerged as a relative winner from the financial crisis, snapping up financially weaker rivals including the Cheshire and Dunfermline building societies.

 

The Bank of England, which slashed interest rates to 0.5 percent during the crisis two years ago, was unlikely to start raising borrowing costs until the end of 2011, Nationwide said.

 

"We think house prices will remain relatively flat for the next few months, with some possible downward migration, but nothing significant," chief executive Grahame Beale told reporters on a conference call.

 

Surveys show house prices have been falling over the past three months, reflecting scarce mortgage finance and worries over the economic impact of government spending cuts aimed at reducing Britain's budget deficit.

 

Nationwide also said it was losing out on 300 million pounds per year because of a pledge to cap its base mortgage rate at two percentage points above the Bank of England rate, relative to the typical 4 percent rate offered by other lenders.

 

Over a third of Nationwide mortgage customers now pay the base rate, and more are choosing to revert to it when their fixed-term loans expire, the company said. ($1 = 0.6244 pound)

 

/more: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AM07C20101123

[fitkid]

Not in Bristol unfortunately. Prices up 3% according to the agent and it's making it harder for me to get a deal I'm working on. Even tho it's in a poorer area and prices have actually fallen there according to my impressionistic assessment, but the sample is too small for the land reg data to be meaningful. The macro data for the property type (Bristol-wide) tells a different story. Grrr! Pain in the a** as the deal has a gross yield of over 21% - that's right after 5 years it's free it has paid for itself. But I'm greedy I want a minimum discount on OMV of 30% as well.

Rich the 11% drop is in transactions not prices.Hold onto your hat the prices will come down the writing is on the wall from so many factors it is inevitable and NATURAL LAW will always apply.

[fitkid]

BETTING on the low base... What if that view is wrong?

 

UPDATE 2-Nationwide B/S sees no UK house price slump

 

LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Nationwide Building Society [NAT.UL], Britain's second-biggest mortgage lender, reported a 26 percent jump in first-half profit, and said it did not expect big house price falls despite signs of property market weakness.

 

Nationwide, which publishes a closely watched monthly house price survey, said on Tuesday major price falls were unlikely in 2011 because continued low interest rates would keep mortgatges affordable and prevent a flood of distressed sales.

 

Mutually-owned Nationwide made an underlying pretax profit of 147 million pounds ($235 million) in the six months to end-September.

 

The improvement reflected a 44 percent drop in bad debts as a partial recovery in commmercial property prices since mid-2009 helped more customers avoid defaulting on loans.

 

Britain's retail banks have all reported stronger profits in the past year as tighter lending criteria and a tentative economic recovery have helped reduce loan impairments.

 

Mortgage and savings-focused Nationwide, the country's biggest customer-owned lender, has emerged as a relative winner from the financial crisis, snapping up financially weaker rivals including the Cheshire and Dunfermline building societies.

 

The Bank of England, which slashed interest rates to 0.5 percent during the crisis two years ago, was unlikely to start raising borrowing costs until the end of 2011, Nationwide said.

 

"We think house prices will remain relatively flat for the next few months, with some possible downward migration, but nothing significant," chief executive Grahame Beale told reporters on a conference call.

 

Surveys show house prices have been falling over the past three months, reflecting scarce mortgage finance and worries over the economic impact of government spending cuts aimed at reducing Britain's budget deficit.

 

Nationwide also said it was losing out on 300 million pounds per year because of a pledge to cap its base mortgage rate at two percentage points above the Bank of England rate, relative to the typical 4 percent rate offered by other lenders.

 

Over a third of Nationwide mortgage customers now pay the base rate, and more are choosing to revert to it when their fixed-term loans expire, the company said. ($1 = 0.6244 pound)

 

/more: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AM07C20101123

You could say the NATIONWIDE has a slight vested interest in the propert markets direction.

 

Mutually-owned Nationwide made an underlying pretax profit of 147 million pounds ($235 million) in the six months to end-September.

 

I whish they would increase their interest rates on there various accounts as they are paying 0 (zero) % interest on most of their accounts for the last 12 months now.

[moesasji]

I whish they would increase their interest rates on there various accounts as they are paying 0 (zero) % interest on most of their accounts for the last 12 months now.

 

Indeed there is little reason to stay with Nationwide nowadays if you don't have a mortgage. Removing the free withdrawals overseas on their debit card was the last straw for me, so currently in the process of moving my accounts elsewhere.

 

[Rich Greenland]

I agree I don't believe their forecasts either.

 

I'm happy for the interest rates on deposits to remain zero if my mortgage payments stay as low as they are. My cashflow from my little property business has gone thru the roof! Right now it's really useful because my other businesses are suffering due to the recession.

[neil324]

It's quite interesting the noise from the Nationwide this week, given their monthly stats are due. I suspect there going to be flat or maybe a slight negative figure.

 

As for interest rates, if commodity prices hold up with a falling Pound against a strengthening Dollar then pressure will be mounting to start raising in Q1 2011.

 

All this bullish news that rates wont be rising untill 2012 etc, no one is even talking about the outside chance of an early rise, that in it's self is contrarian.

[Rich Greenland]

Yes I agree it could happen. It worries me.

[fitkid]

I agree I don't believe their forecasts either.

 

I'm happy for the interest rates on deposits to remain zero if my mortgage payments stay as low as they are. My cashflow from my little property business has gone thru the roof! Right now it's really useful because my other businesses are suffering due to the recession.

I trust you are doing the SENSIBLE thing whith your improved cashflow from your rental yield thanks to ZIRP and paying down capital on your 'DEATHGRIP' and not looking at new caravans etc ALA a family as featured on this 3 part bbc documentary, How to Beat Tough Times: Money Watch

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p008twft

[fitkid]

Indeed there is little reason to stay with Nationwide nowadays if you don't have a mortgage. Removing the free withdrawals overseas on their debit card was the last straw for me, so currently in the process of moving my accounts elsewhere.

Thats the only time i have a balance with them when i go abroad so as to access the wholesale forex rates.

[drbubb]

ANOTHER HIDDEN TAX in ripoff Britian ?

I whish they would increase their interest rates on there various accounts as they are paying 0 (zero) % interest on most of their accounts for the last 12 months now.

Base is 0.5%. They are paying 0.0%.

The mortgage rate they are charging is 2.5% and they say:

"Nationwide also said it was losing out on 300 million pounds per year because of a pledge to cap its base mortgage rate at two percentage points above the Bank of England rate, relative to the typical 4 percent rate offered by other lenders."

 

What a bunch of useless and inefficient lenders are these UK banks!

 

Hong Kong banks charge 0.85% over their costs, and Mortgage rates here got down to 1.0%.

 

Can anyone explain to me why UK banks needs such a huge margin?

 

Why doesn't HSBC just take over the UK market, and push mortgage rates down to 2.0% or lower,

and put these useless dinosaurs out of business?

 

(After living in HK again for a few years, you lose patience with the heavy expenses and inefficiencies of backward third world countries like the US and the UK.)

[fitkid]

ANOTHER HIDDEN TAX in ripoff Britian ?

 

Base is 0.5%. They are paying 0.0%.

The mortgage rate they are charging is 2.5% and they say:

"Nationwide also said it was losing out on 300 million pounds per year because of a pledge to cap its base mortgage rate at two percentage points above the Bank of England rate, relative to the typical 4 percent rate offered by other lenders."

 

What a bunch of useless and inefficient lenders are these UK banks!

 

Hong Kong banks charge 0.85% over their costs, and Mortgage rates here got down to 1.0%.

 

Can anyone explain to me why UK banks needs such a huge margin?

 

Why doesn't HSBC just take over the UK market, and push mortgage rates down to 2.0% or lower,

and put these useless dinosaurs out of business?

 

(After living in HK again for a few years, you lose patience with the heavy expenses and inefficiencies of backward third world countries like the US and the UK.)

 

I like it good dr.

Remember they are STILL a building society OWNED by its customers not a bank.

Have a read of this TOSH i dont think they meet any of the criteria

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/about_nationwi...ing/default.htm

 

Being a responsible lender - our commitment

As a building society, we don't have any shareholders, we're owned by you.

 

That means we have a responsibility to you, our customers, to be open and honest, to provide great value, to treat you fairly, and to be safe and secure.

 

These principles affect every thing we do. The way we lend money is no exception.

 

That's why we are committed to being a responsible lender. This statement tells you about our approach, whether you want a mortgage, personal loan, credit card or an overdraft. It also outlines what we ask of you in return. If you have any queries, please don't hesitate to ask.

 

This is what you can expect from us

 

■products and lending criteria designed to meet your needs

■competitively priced products which we promote in a balanced way showing the risks as well as the benefits

■clear information on the cost of your borrowing, any fees and charges and our terms and conditions

■an assessment of your ability to make regular payments and repay the loan, using appropriate credit assessment techniques, before providing credit

■where the credit limit is solely at our discretion (e.g. Credit Cards and Overdrafts), we will take into account your current and previous financial activity.

■reasonable notice of interest rate and payment changes affecting you

■a limit on your borrowing that we believe will ensure you don't overstretch your finances and which will allow for some increase in expenditure

■under strict controls we may share credit data with other lenders both to improve the quality of our decisions and to reduce the risk of you becoming over-committed

■your personal information treated confidentially and in accordance with Data Protection legislation

■prompt and professional handling of any queries or complaints you may have

■considerate treatment of payment issues and arrears.

 

We ask that you

 

■provide accurate and complete information on your application

■regularly assess your borrowing and, if you are having difficulties in managing your monthly payments, contact us so we can discuss any help/assistance available

■understand the terms and conditions on which the money is borrowed, seeking further information and help if needed

■decide for yourself how much you wish to borrow, up to the maximum we will lend based on your circumstances.

■ensure you have the means to repay the loan at the end of the agreed term if you have taken out an interest only mortgage.

 

[Van]

It's quite interesting the noise from the Nationwide this week, given their monthly stats are due. I suspect there going to be flat or maybe a slight negative figure.

 

 

The are preparing the ground for YoY turning negative very soon.

Here is the current dataset:

 

Oct-09/ 162,038

Nov-09/ 162,764

Dec-09/ 162,103

Jan-10/ 163,481

Feb-10/ 161,320

Mar-10/ 164,519

Apr-10/ 167,802

May-10/ 169,162

Jun-10/ 170,111

Jul-10/ 169,347

Aug-10/ 166,507

Sep-10/ 166,757

Oct-10/ 164,381

 

 

- Current YoY: 1.445%

- Oct-Nov 2009 was 0.45%, even if this month's figures are completely flat, this will bring YoY down below 1%.

- Any MoM reading below 1% will bring the YoY% below zero!

- Prices were increasing up to June 2010, so I expect the YoY fall to accelerate as we head into the spring

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Van]

I've just had a look at the Halifax raw data, and by my reckoning we are already YoY negative here:

 

 

[from HPC]

Here is the Halifax raw data:

 

 

Oct 2009/ 164,990

Nov 2009/ 167,451

Dec 2009/ 168,763

Jan 2010/ 169,484

Feb 2010/ 166,703

Mar 2010/ 168,433

Apr 2010/ 168,212

May 2010/ 167,287

Jun 2010/ 166,351

Jul 2010/ 167,536

Aug 2010/ 168,124

Sep 2010/ 161,974

Oct 2010/ 164,919

 

Oct 2009/ 164,990

Oct 2010/ 164,919

 

By my reckoning that's already YoY negative! Has this been picked up on yet, or have we missed it in their glossed over seaonsal adjustments?

 

Oct 09 - Nov 09 was +1.5%, so as that month falls out of the YoY we will head negative here too!

 

Happy bear days.

[Van]

Nov 2009/ 167,451

Dec 2009/ 168,763

Jan 2010/ 169,484

 

 

As these months fall out of the Halifax YoY figures in the next few months, this index will be turning a nice deep shade of RED!!

[G0ldfinger]

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...PI-adj_LOG.html

[G0ldfinger]

200 oz has now been broken very decisively to the downside.

 

(I can't believe how precisely this chart is following my years old arrow. )