FWIW Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 News reaches me of a few acquaintances lured in by the bull trap. The market is a magnificent 'creature'. Even when you know what you know, it still has a powerful 'song' that lures you in. Also, had a few 'friends' who recently bought and gave me and mrs fwiw guided tours of their newly acquired mansions. I must say that if it wasn't for my 'hpc with fibs chart' map, I would have crashed too. Mrs fwiw still thinks i am mad; better to be mad rather than having an enormous milstone round one's neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 The market is a magnificent 'creature'. Even when you know what you know, it still has a powerful 'song' that lures you in. Also, had a few 'friends' who recently bought and gave me and mrs fwiw guided tours of their newly acquired mansions. I must say that if it wasn't for my 'hpc with fibs chart' map, I would have crashed too. Mrs fwiw still thinks i am mad; better to be mad rather than having an enormous milstone round one's neck. I am happy to report my sister and her husband have sold their wickedly over-valued property in NZ to rent. My next summertime mission is to convince them to secure some of that realized equity in gold...... while the kiwi dollar is still flying high. Incredibly, gold was priced at near $2000 last summer with it now at near $1400. Unfortunately, I was all too convincing with another [very wealthy] brother-in-law last summer. He grumbles a bit, but I keep telling him the bull market in gold will "rescue" him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 Yes, but his attitude and actions are hardly uncommon p.s. my post was a bit tongue in cheek Just be patient. Amongst the many BTL collectors will be many forced sellers within 2-3 years I must say that if it wasn't for my 'hpc with fibs chart' map, I would have crashed too. Mrs fwiw still thinks i am mad; better to be mad rather than having an enormous milstone round one's neck. Sensible chap ! Some people think I am mad to be a seller now. But it sure felt good to go into the bank today, and payoff our biggest remaining mortgage with the proceeds of our two last flat sales. It will be great to see the rental income rolling in, with no mortgage payments rolling out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meow Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 Just be patient. Oh I am being Amongst the many BTL collectors will be many forced sellers within 2-3 years Nothing seems to be triggering it yet though, I expect there are a lot of people with bated breath for your views on today's BDEV and Redrow movements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 Just be patient. Amongst the many BTL collectors will be many forced sellers within 2-3 years Sensible chap ! Some people think I am mad to be a seller now. But it sure felt good to go into the bank today, and payoff our biggest remaining mortgage with the proceeds of our two last flat sales. It will be great to see the rental income rolling in, with no mortgage payments rolling out We complete in a couple of weeks. People at work have conflicting opinions of my sale (though most are market savvy). I'm sure nearly all of my friends and fanily will have a few wisecracks for me when it goes through and if these house price increase headlines keep on appearing.... Must admit I have had conflicting emotions about it recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Dali Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 Must admit I have had conflicting emotions about it recently. No way Chaz. Its a good decision. Unequivocally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Concrete Jungle Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 The market is a magnificent 'creature'. Even when you know what you know, it still has a powerful 'song' that lures you in. Also, had a few 'friends' who recently bought and gave me and mrs fwiw guided tours of their newly acquired mansions. I must say that if it wasn't for my 'hpc with fibs chart' map, I would have crashed too. Mrs fwiw still thinks i am mad; better to be mad rather than having an enormous milstone round one's neck. I am happy sat on the sidelines watching the show unfold. I largely keep my opinions to my self these days regarding the state of the housing market and UK economy. If it ever makes sense to buy, I will buy. If not I shall keep my powder dry and evaluate my options in other parts of the world, given that I have a pessimistic outlook for the standard of living in the UK over the next 5 - 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabriel959 Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 I am happy sat on the sidelines watching the show unfold. I largely keep my opinions to my self these days regarding the state of the housing market and UK economy. If it ever makes sense to buy, I will buy. If not I shall keep my powder dry and evaluate my options in other parts of the world, given that I have a pessimistic outlook for the standard of living in the UK over the next 5 - 10 years. My wife wants to buy but I have kept her at bay till now. I reckon I have until this time next year to start making a decision. Hopefully we should start seeing prices going down again in the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy88s Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 Yes, I just saw this. Its the post Rights issue price. Pre RI £2.56 TERP = (£2.56 + £1.30)/2.3 = £1.68 In theory the price should level off around £1.68 (depending on confidence, take up etc etc) It should pick up now, so just an admin blip? Does anyone here have any BDEV shares, I am ashamed to admit that I took a punt at around 60p and have had a good return, down 40% today though! Anyone else own BDEV and thinking about taking up the offer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 Does anyone here have any BDEV shares, I am ashamed to admit that I took a punt at around 60p and have had a good return, down 40% today though! Anyone else own BDEV and thinking about taking up the offer? But are they actually down or is it just a correction to take into account the rights issue? More shares in issue are going to dilute the share price/div, etc. Nothing to be ashamed about in taking that punt, actually it was brave because many would have said that it was on the road to going out of business, when the reality is that many companies by March of this year were in the bargain basement bin for a punt if you had the nerve to do it. Some will have made 5-10 times their money on this and others and the company is still a dog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecoface Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 Does anyone here have any BDEV shares, I am ashamed to admit that I took a punt at around 60p and have had a good return, down 40% today though! Anyone else own BDEV and thinking about taking up the offer? Absolutely not. None of the big volume plcs have gone under or been acquired in this housing downcycle. In the 70s and 80s/90s cycle there were several major casulties in each cycle. You could say the Crest Nicholson deal last summer was effectively the main casulty, but we are only 2 years into this fall. Given we have at least another 2 years of price falls to encounter, it is far too premature to think these companies have written down their values to where they should be. Housebuilding is arguably the most leverage hungry industry on earth. I would be very careful indeed of having any shares in this sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecoface Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sash777 Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 Must admit I have had conflicting emotions about it recently. With you on that - we complete in a couple of weeks too and I'm still undecided on what to do with the equity that I pull out. All my savings (circa £50k) have been in Gold for over 12 months so I've done fairly well out of that. This sale will give me another £50k in cash, don't want to go all into Gold though. My priority is obviously to preserve the buying power of the money that comes from this - but other than going 100% Gold, which has already seen some quick moves and is probably due a pullback, I'm unsure of the best move. What are you thinking Chazza? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 With you on that - we complete in a couple of weeks too and I'm still undecided on what to do with the equity that I pull out. All my savings (circa £50k) have been in Gold for over 12 months so I've done fairly well out of that. This sale will give me another £50k in cash, don't want to go all into Gold though. My priority is obviously to preserve the buying power of the money that comes from this - but other than going 100% Gold, which has already seen some quick moves and is probably due a pullback, I'm unsure of the best move. What are you thinking Chazza? I'm hoping for the next leg of this debt deflation cycle, allowing me to get into gold, and eventually silver at better prices. We shall have to see how this pans out. The Ave house price/Silver graph speaks volumes to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy88s Posted October 20, 2009 Report Share Posted October 20, 2009 Absolutely not. None of the big volume plcs have gone under or been acquired in this housing downcycle. In the 70s and 80s/90s cycle there were several major casulties in each cycle. You could say the Crest Nicholson deal last summer was effectively the main casulty, but we are only 2 years into this fall. Given we have at least another 2 years of price falls to encounter, it is far too premature to think these companies have written down their values to where they should be. Housebuilding is arguably the most leverage hungry industry on earth. I would be very careful indeed of having any shares in this sector. I think it is OK to be cautious, however I believe it is a good strategy to have a mix of asset classes. There will be winners and losers at the end of this and I happen to think that Barretts will be one of the winners, it might take 5 years but if they reach their peak I will be 20 X up. Its all a gamble at the end of the day, I have to admit though that rights issues make me nervous. Barrate sonly amount to 0.5% of my total portfolio. I also bought RBS at 12p - another gamble! I have just bought "Threadneedle UK Property Accumulation" it is a commerical property fund and is sitting on over 50% cash waiting to buy property at the right price. The commerical property sector has been absoluetly hammered but unless the UK shuts up shop this will recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 ... The Ave house price/Silver graph speaks volumes to me. Yeah. http://gold.approximity.com/since1930/UK_H...Silver_LOG.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I have DRAWN IN SOME CYCLICAL INDICATORS on GF's Property-in-Silver Chart If the trendline has any meaning, we may see a bounce from here (as Silver falls?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Can someone enlighten me as to the circumstances which led to 1000oz silver affording the av. UK house back in 1980? Looking at the chart I am afraid to be hopeful it will happen again (or ever) soon. Will it? Lets say av. UK house falls to 100-120K. Not unthinkable. This would imply silver at 100-120 pounds/oz. So a ten fold rise for silver? Is't possible? I would love to hope so but I'm not too confident about that. Gold on the other hand...100oz for the av. house = gold at 1000-1200 pounds/oz, and thus far more credulous. Any thoughts? I can't help but think that silver is still ridiculously cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Can someone enlighten me as to the circumstances which led to 1000oz silver affording the av. UK house back in 1980? ... That will be the infamous Hunt Brothers and the Silver Pool when they tried to corner the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Can someone enlighten me as to the circumstances which led to 1000oz silver affording the av. UK house back in 1980? Looking at the chart I am afraid to be hopeful it will happen again (or ever) soon. Will it? ... I can't help but think that silver is still ridiculously cheap. Silver was quite subdued in the first half of the last century. It recovered in the early second part. This, together with the rise in gold and the Hunt brothers brought the spike. Could it happen again? I think so. There are a lot of people short of silver, and I actually doubt that they sit on metal they can sell if they have to. Also, this is the biggest crisis in 100 years, so we could expect big results as well. Will it happen? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I have DRAWN IN SOME CYCLICAL INDICATORS on GF's Property-in-Silver Chart If the trendline has any meaning, we may see a bounce from here (as Silver falls?) Very nice. Let's see how it works out. Personally, I think the cycles are longer, and we have to finish off the last big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Must admit I have had conflicting emotions about it recently. Must contrast the uber-bullish house headlines with anecdotals from neighbours trying to sell their places. They have been on the market for 3 months, a handful of viewings and no bids. "Wrong price" is the first thing I think of. The places are the newer double height conversions - very nice, but not cheap and 3 or 4 on sale from the same development. And interestingly, the place we should be moving into is now owned by a bank.... a sign of the times EDIT: Forgot to say, one of the sellers in the block needs to sell their place soon within the next few months as they have already bought a new place. I said at the time (a couple of months ago) that that was quiet a ballsy strategy given the macro situation. Tho think the missus didnt mention anything to them as we aren't that close. They couple both work in finance so you'd imagine they shold know its all about price.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Mustard Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Yeah. http://gold.approximity.com/since1930/UK_H...Silver_LOG.html Good charts. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosworth Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Well I've finally put my money where my mouth is... ...and sold to rent. Completing tomorrow and moving my family into rented, despite ENORMOUS emotional pressure from everyone around me. It's a lonely place being right... Managed to offload a "prime london riverside flat" (2 bed, 2 bath) for a shade under £600k. Feels glorious to be free... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Managed to offload a "prime london riverside flat" (2 bed, 2 bath) for a shade under £600k. Congrats. And now, don't lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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