UK House prices: News & Views

[Van]

Here's the update, thanks to Frizzers!

http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-the-charts-you-love-to-hate-uk-house-prices-in-gold/

 

If anything, it just shows how ABSURDLY detached from reality London has become.

 

 

 

[drbubb]

Tough Luck for the once-Lucky

.

New stamp duty land tax extra three per cent charge could hit parents who want to help their children get onto the property ladder, tax experts warn

.

If you're currently saving to give your son or daughter a helping hand onto the property ladder, you might find you need to put aside a little bit more than you bargained for to cover tax charges.

The Chartered Institute of Taxation (CIOT) yesterday cautioned that the additional three per cent charge on stamp duty land tax (SDLT) announced in last November's Autumn Statement, which was intended to apply to those purchasing a buy-to-let property or a second home, could also be applicable to parents who are jointly purchasing a property with their children.

"A joint purchase may be made for reasons that have a clear social value and not a bid to set up a buy-to-let business," said Brian Slater, chair of the CIOT’s Property Taxes Sub-Committee. "Life is complex and there are many situations where parents want to support their adult children in buying a home. Taking even a small interest (while owning another property) means that the extra three per cent is payable on the whole of the purchase price."

Read more: Landlords have been hit by 14 tax changes in four years

[drbubb]

Foxtons is under pressure

 

Max Keiser mentioned it in a recent podcast

Keiser Report: Bankers and miracles (E884)

 

The attempt at using the banker's miracle of money printing is failing, and asset values are headed down

 

It looks like FOXT may be set to break below important support

 

FOXT.L / Foxtons ... update

[drbubb]

The Crocodiles (on HPC) are crying maybe?

 

'The Government's buy-to-let tax changes mean I will have to sell - or raise rents'

Jaye Cook says that changes to tax rules for landlords means that he may have to raise rents or sell up

• Tara Evans

15 March 2016 • 2:04pm

Further evidence is emerging of the pressures that are building on buy-to-let landlords as a result of the Government’s tax increases.

Even a modest rise in interest rates would force losses on property investors in 70pc of locations, new figures show, while more landlords have come forward to say they will sell their properties or raise rents in response to the abolition of tax relief on mortgage interest and the new stamp duty penalty.

The research found that today’s average profits for landlords of about £3,400 a year would turn to a loss of more than £300 if mortgage rates rose by 2.5 percentage points by the end of the decade (see below for details of the research).

 

Jaye Cook, 34, who owns five properties in Kent, is so worried about the tax changes that he plans to sell some of his existing portfolio or raise the rents he charges his tenants...

==

> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/the-governments-buy-to-let-tax-changes-mean-i-will-have-to-sell/?ref=yfp

 

Buy-to-let

The assumptions behind the calculations

• The landlord is a higher rate tax payer with a 60pc LTV buy to let property loan, fixed at 3pc for three years
• Average house price data based on Zoopla
• Average rents based on figures from Home.co.uk
• Rents are assumed to remain level
• Research by Property Partner

[drbubb]

(A trip down Memory Lane - from a thread about my new Property Channel on Youtube, Global REO)

thread : http://tinyurl.com/GREO-thread === channel : http://tinyurl.com/GlobalREO

 

TIMING / Property Cycles

These Videos are about Fred Harrison's description of the 18 Year Cycle

 

These Videos are based on Property prices moves in the United Kingdom.

But cycles of the same length have also shown up in the U.S., Hong Kong, and other real estate Markets.

 

> Hong Kong: chart from : thread on the 18-year Property Cycle

 

( Videos from : BubbFromGEI channel ):

Is there a property crash every 18 years?

Property Crash Cycle - Introduction to Fred Harrison's 18 Years ( 24 Jul 2008 / 8,801 views)

 

Fred Harrison thinks so. In his book: Boom Bust, House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010,

Harrison describes a cycle of 18 years.

 

Part-1: ( 15,591 views)

+ Property Bust after 14 year Boom- Fred Harrison, part 1

 

Part-2: ( 6,232 views)

+ Property Bust after 14 year Boom- Fred Harrison, part 2

[drbubb]

LONDON is Peaking, after a long, long rally - says EWave Int'l

 

=====

It shows a rising lower graph, which indicates the declining affordability of London homes, because a greater percentage of income goes to meet mortgage payments.

When buyer affordability hit 69.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007, London home prices promptly plummeted 20%. Prices bottomed in the first quarter of 2009, sending mortgage payments back below 50% of take-home pay.

But, today, nearly 66% of Londoners' income is going toward mortgage payments, just a few percentage points shy of the 2007 peak.

More important, the top graph depicts an extended fifth wave in London home prices, with wave (5) of 5 reaching equality with wave (1) of 5. This is a common wave relationship.

As the textbook Elliott Wave Principle observes, fifth-wave extensions "are typically followed by swift retracements," which usually return to the price territory of the "fourth wave of one larger degree." So, by common wave relationships alone, London home prices are set for a 30%-50% decline.

Either way, unaffordable homes are once again colliding with euphoric sentiment and complete Elliott wave patterns. The combination should prove to be even more deadly than it did in 2007.

Click here to continue reading the rest of the 50-page State of the Global Markets Report--2016 Edition 100% free >>

[tinecu]

Central London prices are sliding and look set to fall a long way. The rest (SE etc) will follow but it may take along time.....

 

On the other hand the North East has flat lined since the crisis.. i.e. no funny money recovery at all.

[Van]

Have rising house prices pushed monthly repayments above the cost of renting?

Do YOU fear you can't ever get on the property ladder?

 

Fear Not!

 

We have the solution.

 

Throw away the 25 year mortgage.

Now introducing the 40 year mortgage.

 

Keeping home affordable for 40 years or more.

 

Because you KNOW prices only ever go up.

 

Buy now before it's too late!

 

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/09/first-time-buyers-stretching-house-prices-mortgage-repayments-property-ladder

 

 

/and Jesus wept.

[drbubb]

"Throw away the 25 year mortgage.

Now introducing the 40 year mortgage."

 

A very dangerous sign - SELL and Run for the Hills!

[tinecu]

Now introducing the 40 year mortgage.

 

 

soon to be replaced by the 'Infinity' mortgage....it's so affordable* you just never stop paying (nor do your kids)!

 

*= affordable means all your spare cash so you remain permanently in debt.

[drbubb]

I smell Trouble ! What could go wrong?

 

/1/

First-time-buyers rush to borrow thousands - here's how it could go wrong

First-time-buyers rush to borrow thousands - here's how it could go wrong

 

/2/

UK house prices fall in April as new tax bites - Halifax

British house prices fell more sharply than expected last month after the introduction of a new tax on the purchase of rental properties and the market might be entering a cooler phase, mortgage lender Halifax said on Monday. Compared with the same period last year, house prices rose by 9.2 percent in the three months to April, the slowest rise since November and down from an increase of 10.1 percent in the three months to March. Rival mortgage lender Nationwide has also previously reported a slowdown in house price growth in April.

Reuters

 

[drbubb]

Mapped: Where are the property bargains? The areas where asking prices are being slashed

Nearly a third of houses have had their asking prices reduced since being put up for sale, in a sign that the feverish property market is finally starting to cool down. The

[mSparks]

It would appear creditcrunch.co.uk is rip

[drbubb]

It was pretty quiet.

I wished them well, except when they made some unfair attacks on this site

[drbubb]

BLAME GAME, from Max Igan

 

 

Now Max Igan is having a go at Trump, for playing the housing cycle.

 

 

Trump rooted for the housing crash. I lost everything

May 25 4:46pm:

Donald Trump rooted for the housing market to collapse because he believed there was money to be made.

 

Crider was a Trump supporter. That is, until he heard how "excited" Trump was for the real estate bubble to pop. Now, Crider says he's likely to stay home in November.

"We lost our house. I lost everything because of the economy," Crider of Henderson, NV, told CNNMoney. "Everything crashed at the same time."

Crider said he is "offended" by the recently-surfaced comments from Trump showing the billionaire cheered on the housing crash.

. . .

Trump responded on Tuesday by saying he was merely trying to do what everyone strives for: buy low and sell high.

"I'm a businessman, that's what I'm supposed to do," Trump said. "If it goes down, it goes down. I feel badly for everybody. What am I going to do? It's business!"

Trump too wasn't left unscathed by the housing crash. The billionaire launched a mortgage broker in the spring 2006 near the top of the market. Trump Mortgage closed down less than two years later as the real estate market imploded.

More

 

Hey, Max, we all make mistakes. Realize this:

Markets are cyclical.

When you learn that, and become flexible enough to cope with the cycles, you will do better.

 

Don't blame Trump. He is just recognizing reality, not creating the Cycles.

The Zios and their Central Banks do that.

 

I do my best to TEACH people the reality of cycles, so people I who listen will not be losers.

It is all about living inside a Reality you understand, rather than trying to create your own fantasy,

 

Ron (Van Dyke) also rails against "housing speculators". He wants to blame them for cycles, when the impact of the speculators has the reverse impact. When they BUY LOW, they are supporting a market, and helping it to stabilize, when the SELL HIGH, they are adding supply, and helping it stabilize rather than push higher.

 

Embracing reality more fully than sheeple who buy and sell blindly, is what they are doing. Without the speculators and turnaround experts like Trump, the cycles would be more pronounced.

[mSparks]

It was pretty quiet.

I wished them well, except when they made some unfair attacks on this site

Really? I'd have a hard time believing any regular there would have the technical expertise or inclination to do anything untoward here. Relationship was always cordial as far as I knew, just a different focus.

 

Here was all about gold and hardcore preppers. There was just about watching the credit implosion and its effects on the housing market.

 

Had a fair few attacks there to. I even started documenting (and cross posting) when they happened (a good thing now cc has gone).

 

http://www.theborgmatrix.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=1562

 

What makes you think they came from cc?

[drbubb]

Brexit 'could see more foreign investors swamp property market'

 

A vote to leave the EU could prompt more foreign investors to pile into the housing market to snap up "Brexit bargains", according to estate agents.

London-based estate agents Stirling Ackroyd said recent volatility in the pound and a dip in London property values have already made house prices in the capital appear cheaper for foreign investors in recent months.

Stirling Ackroyd said since November 2015, on average, a home in London has become 33,200 euro cheaper, equating to a saving of around £26,000 for a foreign buyer.

If the country votes for Brexit this week, the value of sterling is expected to fall further - which could encourage further foreign investment in the London property market, its report said.

London has already been particularly attractive to overseas property investors in recent years, as it has been seen as a "safe haven" amid wider economic turmoil.

Foreign investors have also been blamed for making house prices, particularly in the capital, more unaffordable by adding to demand and helping fuel shortages of available stock.

Andrew Bridges, managing director of Stirling Ackroyd, said: "If Britain votes to leave the EU, sterling is set to fall further so, ironically, London would become even more affordable - and therefore more attractive - to overseas buyers."

=== ===

 

I doubt this!

Read carefully: "Brexit bargains", according to estate agents.

Agents are good at inventing ideas to justify buying property, especially expensive properties.

 

Brexit will not improve yields (unless prices drop), but it COULD put UK interest rates higher,

and THAT would be likely to push prices lower, even in terms of a weaker Sterling

When you hear half-baked argument like this, see who they are coming from !

 

[drbubb]

FTSE is still in a downtrend ... update

 

 

And if you are being bombarded by property agents telling you to Buy UK property before it goes up...

 

Send them this link:

> http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property-finance/threads/7927f188-ab68-4af1-acc2-d10d433475fc/brexit+-+what+next3f/

 

Haha.
As expected, I am bombarded by property agents telling me it is a great time to buy property in the UK since sterling hit a new low.

There's a chance they will be right, of course

But I think there are some more powerful reasons why this may not be a great time to buy:

+ The UK may close the door to immigrants from the EU, and people may leave the UK, causing demand to drop
+ Interest rates may have to rise in the UK to protect the currency
+ The UK economy may go into recession, cutting jobs, and pushing rents down

Of course, none of those anxious emails that I got mentioned these negative factors.

If you think Sterling is cheap, then buy Sterling. You can wait until things settle down and the waters are more calm, before you buy your next property in the UK.

(Feel free to copy this email, and send it to the manic agents, if they pester you!)

 

===

 

One of the agents who contacted me suggested that I look at buying a London studio, "from GBP 575,000"

Yeah, sure, THAT will work out well in a post-Brexit world. Sure.

[drbubb]

Fewer Jobs in London (and lower rents maybe too)

 

Why Brexit could 'kill' London as a top financial hub

 

The U.K. exit from the European Union risks costing the City of London billions of pounds, thousands of workers and its spot as the world’s top financial center.

The lost status centers on one simple process that’s complex to undo: passporting.

The mechanism allows British-based financial institutions such as banks, fund managers and insurers to seamlessly sell their services across the 28 EU nations without having to get regulator approval or set up subsidiaries in each member state.

Read: The U.K. has voted for Brexit — what happens next?

And in the immediate wake of the “leave” vote, a top European Central Bank official fueled the fears for London’s lost financial hub status.

François Villeroy de Galhau told The Guardian that keeping the so-called “passport” would not be possible if the U.K. leaves the single market of trade in goods and services.

And, according to the newspaper, other ECB governing council members stressed that expedient talks toward a smooth Brexit transition will be key to softening Britain’s financial-hub consequences.

In the lead-up to the referendum, finance and banking industry voices across the City of London were clear about the implications for passporting from a “leave” vote.

“It would kill it,” said Stuart Alexander, chief executive at Gemini Investment Management, which is using the mechanism.

“You’d have to go back to the old regime of a U.K. fund management company going into Frankfurt and saying, ‘Please, Mr. Regulator, will you authorize this fund for distribution in your country?’” he said.

. . .

The U.K. exit from the European Union risks costing the City of London billions of pounds, thousands of workers and its spot as the world’s top financial center.

The lost status centers on one simple process that’s complex to undo: passporting.

The mechanism allows British-based financial institutions such as banks, fund managers and insurers to seamlessly sell their services across the 28 EU nations without having to get regulator approval or set up subsidiaries in each member state.

 

The U.K. has voted for Brexit — what happens next?

 

And in the immediate wake of the “leave” vote, a top European Central Bank official fueled the fears for London’s lost financial hub status.

François Villeroy de Galhau told The Guardian that keeping the so-called “passport” would not be possible if the U.K. leaves the single market of trade in goods and services.

And, according to the newspaper, other ECB governing council members stressed that expedient talks toward a smooth Brexit transition will be key to softening Britain’s financial-hub consequences.

In the lead-up to the referendum, finance and banking industry voices across the City of London were clear about the implications for passporting from a “leave” vote.

“It would kill it,” said Stuart Alexander, chief executive at Gemini Investment Management, which is using the mechanism.

“You’d have to go back to the old regime of a U.K. fund management company going into Frankfurt and saying, ‘Please, Mr. Regulator, will you authorize this fund for distribution in your country?’” he said.

[drbubb]

Fewer Jobs in London (and lower rents maybe too)

 

Why Brexit could 'kill' London as a top financial hub

 

The U.K. exit from the European Union risks costing the City of London billions of pounds, thousands of workers and its spot as the world’s top financial center.

The lost status centers on one simple process that’s complex to undo: passporting.

The mechanism allows British-based financial institutions such as banks, fund managers and insurers to seamlessly sell their services across the 28 EU nations without having to get regulator approval or set up subsidiaries in each member state.

Read: The U.K. has voted for Brexit — what happens next?

And in the immediate wake of the “leave” vote, a top European Central Bank official fueled the fears for London’s lost financial hub status.

François Villeroy de Galhau told The Guardian that keeping the so-called “passport” would not be possible if the U.K. leaves the single market of trade in goods and services.

And, according to the newspaper, other ECB governing council members stressed that expedient talks toward a smooth Brexit transition will be key to softening Britain’s financial-hub consequences.

In the lead-up to the referendum, finance and banking industry voices across the City of London were clear about the implications for passporting from a “leave” vote.

“It would kill it,” said Stuart Alexander, chief executive at Gemini Investment Management, which is using the mechanism.

“You’d have to go back to the old regime of a U.K. fund management company going into Frankfurt and saying, ‘Please, Mr. Regulator, will you authorize this fund for distribution in your country?’” he said.

. . .

The U.K. exit from the European Union risks costing the City of London billions of pounds, thousands of workers and its spot as the world’s top financial center.

The lost status centers on one simple process that’s complex to undo: passporting.

The mechanism allows British-based financial institutions such as banks, fund managers and insurers to seamlessly sell their services across the 28 EU nations without having to get regulator approval or set up subsidiaries in each member state.

 

The U.K. has voted for Brexit — what happens next?

 

And in the immediate wake of the “leave” vote, a top European Central Bank official fueled the fears for London’s lost financial hub status.

François Villeroy de Galhau told The Guardian that keeping the so-called “passport” would not be possible if the U.K. leaves the single market of trade in goods and services.

And, according to the newspaper, other ECB governing council members stressed that expedient talks toward a smooth Brexit transition will be key to softening Britain’s financial-hub consequences.

In the lead-up to the referendum, finance and banking industry voices across the City of London were clear about the implications for passporting from a “leave” vote.

“It would kill it,” said Stuart Alexander, chief executive at Gemini Investment Management, which is using the mechanism.

“You’d have to go back to the old regime of a U.K. fund management company going into Frankfurt and saying, ‘Please, Mr. Regulator, will you authorize this fund for distribution in your country?’” he said.

[mSparks]

Glad its not just me getting hit by the double post thing....

[drbubb]

TALKING BRAVELY

Brexit sees mixed reaction among home buyers PA Money News – 7 hours ago

 

Estate agents are seeing a mixed reaction so far to the country's decision to leave the EU, with some buyers pausing for thought while many others press ahead with their plans.

While some buyers have decided to wait and see what happens for now, some others have upped their offers for properties in recent days.

With shortages of homes on the market for buyers to choose from, sellers have also been holding firm on their prices.

Andrew Bridges, managing director of London estate agent Stirling Ackroyd, said that while anecdotally a "handful" of buyers had been lost since the referendum, some of these deals had already been tied up.

He said: "Some people buying for investment purposes do appear to be stalling a little although people buying for themselves are continuing to push purchases through.

"As a result, vendors are holding firm on prices. Ultimately, there isn't enough residential property being built in London and Brexit hasn't changed that."

Property analyst Hometrack predicts house price growth across the UK's major cities will slow down rapidly during the second half of this year - but in general, it expects property prices to continue heading upwards rather than widespread price falls.

According to an index from estate agents Your Move and Reeds Rains, first-time buyers paid a record high of £173,282 on average for a property in May.

Adrian Gill, director of Your Move and Reeds Rains, said: "The Brexit result won't change the fact that huge numbers of aspiring first-timers want to buy a first home, and lots won't want to wait out the two years until the renegotiations over the EU have been completed.

==

> https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-sees-mixed-reaction-among-230101965.html

[drbubb]

This chart from last year - and its wave count had it right about a major peak near 670p...

 

A long last, Barratt may be rolling over - but I await a confirmation

 

BDEV... update: Last: 569P ... PSN-5-yrs / Last: 18.44

 

 

Since then, what has happened? A HUGE fall in BDEV's share price

 

For those who say Brexit does not matter...
Barratt shareholders may disagree. The share price took a swan dive as the Brexit vote happened, and there remains a lot of ground to be made up,

if it is going to regain the old price levels.

BDEV ... 5-years : Last: 349.10 (7/7/2016)


In fact, we may see 300p, or even 150p before we see 600p again. And this chart may be giving a very negative prognosis for the next 2-3 years in the London and UK property market

 

*chart was updated, with comment:

"GBP may or may not get to $1.20, and if it does, it may not stop there.
So I make smaller trades, and use options, until the level looks right, and the price looks right.
I might buy something in the property sector at $1.20, such as Barratt / BDEV, but only if both charts look right then.

Right now, BDEV is sliding: With a recent Low 326P, it is about 50% off its 673P high.

Right now, It would not be surprising to see a decent bounce off that low - since 50% is often a key support level. But I do not think 326P will be a major low, unless it is successfully retested, and it holds

 

The 50% drop in Barratt shares does not bode well for UK property, and especially London property. I recommend people stay away from buying London property for months or years, no matter what the Property agents may be telling you. As them to post their opinions or comments in a public forum like this, and we can see what their track record is. Mine is not hard to find. (I am sometimes wrong, but my views are researched, independent, and right often enough for me to not be afraid of scrutiny.)

[drbubb]

'green Tax' To Hit Landlords With £5,000 Bill On Buy-To-Let Homes

 

There are fears buy-to-let landlords are being used by the Government as a ....

[BoldAsBrass]

Well, after a fair bit of discussion, my two sons recently decided to bite the bullet and bought a new build using the Help to Buy scheme. We had saved money for each of them throughout their childhoods - intending it to either help with university costs or as a deposit on a house. So, they used it as the deposit on a house costing just over half a million. Yes, I know. They both earn decent money and, despite being young (the youngest is 21) they earn over 100k between them. I gave them the old 'buying at top prices at the lowest interest rates in history may not be a good idea' speech. But, I've certainly been giving my eldest lad that speech for a number of years and, for him, it had worn thin. His mates were somehow getting on the ladder and he felt he was going to be left behind.

 

So, early days yet ... but they bought a house which had been released for sale about 6 months ago. The people who were originally going to buy it never exchanged and the developer offered it to my sons who went ahead. They've been in a couple of months now.

 

Similar houses on the next phase, a bit smaller though, and with no garage, are going for £30k more than they paid. The house next door (identical) has been bought by an investor and is being rented out at £1900 a month. My lads' mortgage (at 1.99%) is £1200.

 

No wonder anyone with a bit of cash is still sinking it into property. The madness continues.