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UK House prices: News & Views

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Has Barratt found its high?

 

BDEV ... all-data : 5-years

 

BDEV_zpsmulgexgl.gif

 

The chart argument is strongest on the All-data chart.

On the 5-year chart, a break of 500p might begin to "confirm" a Top is in place

 

5-years ... update : 12mos : Last: 513.50 - 6.00

BDEV-5yr_zps8dmakbeu.gif

 

Keep in mind, there is usually (but not always) a post-election Rally.

If it comes, it may "safe" FTSE from rolling over, and also BDEV

 

UKX ... update

aa_zpsgzhgmaqd.gif

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LONDON Property : Better than Gold !

 

(original : Jan. 2011 post)

HOUSING Valuations:
========
UK House (H&N Index - Dec.10): ............ GBP-162,131 = 0.480 GB (or 2.08 houses per GB)
US House (CSX20 - Sep.10-147.49 x $1300 : $191,737 = 0.359 GB ( 2.78 Hs. per GB)
HK Lux. Flat (CCLI: 88.29 x 10,000): ....... HK$8.83 mn = 2.125 GB (or x.x Hs/GB) HK/ 7.78 = US$1.135mn
Penang Lux. (RM1.5 milllion /3.06 ): .......... US$490,200 = 0.928 GB

========

 

LondonHouse3_zpsp2mvq3lv.jpg

 

(updated : May 2015):

 

Mo: Rt'move : London: H&Nindex: mom : $Gold : 400oz : GBP/$ : GB-Gb : Lon-Gb : H&N-Gb

2010

J : : 222,261 : 407,731 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :

D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : £162,131 :- 0.74% : $1,316 : $526.4k : $1.58 : 333.2k : 1.225GB : 0.487GB

2011-peak

Aug 231,543 : 418,008 : £163,995 :- 0.74% : $1,850 : $740.0k : $1.63 : 454.0k : 0.921GB : 0.361GB

2015-now

M : : 281,752 : 580,308 : £191,212 :+0.55% : $1,180 : $472.0k : $1.49 : 316.8k : 1.832GB : 0.603GB

A. : : 286,133*: 594,585* £000,??0 :- 0.00% : $1,200 : $480.0k : $1.52 : 315.8k : 1.885GB : 0.0??GB

M : : 000,??0 : 000,??0 : £000,??0 :- 0.00% : $1,191 : $476.4k : $1.52 : 313.4k :

===

*All Time High

== : Halifax : Nat'wide : H&Nindex:

D : : 189,304 : 188,559 : £188,932 :

J. : : 192,954 : 188,446 : £190,700 : +0.94% :

F. : : 192,372 : 187,964 : £190,168 : - 0.28% :

M : : 192,970*: 189,454 : £191,212*: +0.55% :

A. : : 000,??0 : 193,048*: £000,000 :

===

 

Wow !

Almost 2 Gold Bars (400 oz) are needed - actual 1.885 Gb's - to Buy an Average London House

And the H&N Index house rose from 0.361GB to 0.603GB, that's +67.0% since Aug. 2011

 

> thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=13683

 

LondonHouse3b_zpsbri5p1ui.jpg

 

HOUSING VALUATIONS - at Q1-2015:

London House (Rightmove - Mar.15):..... GBP-594,585 = 1.832 GB

UK House (H&N Index - Mar.15): ............. GBP-191,212 = 0.603 GB (or 1.66 houses per Gold-Bar)
US House (CSX20 - Feb.15-173.67 x $1300 : $225,771 = 0.470 GB ( 2.12 Hs. per GB)
HK Lux. Flat (CCLI: 141.2 x 10,000): ...... HK$14.12 mn = 3.796 GB (or 0.26 Hs/GB) HK/7.75 = US$1.822mn
Manila 2BR (PHP8.0 milllion/44.7 ): .......... US$179,000 = 0.373 GB (or 2.43 Hs/GB)
(based on $1,200 x 400= $480k)

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This topic has intrigued me since it opened in 2008 with something like 'we are witnessing a once in a lifetime event'. Well, here we are 7 years later (and 13 years after HPC started) and still nothing to speak of. House over the road just sold for £150k more than it last sold for in 2010. My house has been valued at £180k more than I paid for it - also in 2010. Identical house to mine just sold ... hence agents nagging me to sell mine. It feels like nothing has changed ... that somehow, weirdly, houses are still selling at prices that 90% of the next generation cannot afford.

 

A family member (generation below me) is moving 'up the ladder' and buying a semi in a nice village in Surrey for half a million - can only assume at least a 300k mortgage is involved. There seem to be enough youngsters earning big money to keep the thing going. Looks to me as though this thing may never play out .... we baby boomers are dying off over the next 20 years and the money will move down and keep things ticking along.

 

All, of course, now based on low interest rates. Will they ever go up again? Again, we all seem to have adapted to low interest rates.

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The number of able and willing buyers as a whole is shrinking at an alarming rate in London, although I must add following the last two quarters that experienced price falls there has been an uptick in values of late.

 

MMR has had a significant impact even in PCL again affecting potential buyers.

 

My own bellweather is employment. So watch the employment rate in the City. If this cracks that is when the housing market will turn into correction mode, for without work or good pay how does one service that huge mortgage even if interest rates are rock bottom .

 

Another factor is international money in London. There has been a little flurry of late of Italians cashing in their PCL flats that I understand is attributable to taxation reasons imposed upon them by the Italian government. Without the huge amount of International money in London, this City really will start to feel and look poor, so I am monitoring closely if the smart money is on the move.

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Interesting intelligence!

 

Thanks, chartered surveyor

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SENSE on Student accommodation...

 

As with any investment, you need to understand the full risks involved when purchasing.

You're looking at everything on the assumptions that everything goes well.

You need to factor in the following. In terms of your exit strategy, how long would it take to sell the property (3 months?, 6 months? 1 year or more ? ), also factor in your selling costs (conveyancing fees, agent fees).

If you're selling at the same price after 5 years, that means there has been no property price appreciation. If the new investor wants a higher yield, than means you have to take a hit and sell at a lower price (also add your selling costs).

What happens when the company offering the return goes into liquidation?

Have a look at the following articles and you'll realize that no matter "how large or safe" the company may be, if the company goes bankrupt,

your guarantee is worthless and there is no longer a guaranteed income. You could consider asking for a LARGE DISCOUNT :)

Here's a nice article from MONEYWEEK and also published in the Financial Times:-
http://moneyweek.com/dont-get-suckered-investing-student-accommodation/

OPAL PROPERTY GROUP GOES INTO LIQUIDATION (2013 - Largest UK Student Accommodation)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13f7fcc2-faba-11e2-87b9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3hjQL4Lrl

Liverpool property developer go bust
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/nigel-russells-middle-england-developments-6282085
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/landlord-hell-means-well-never-8350498
http://www.thebusinessdesk.com/northwest/news/636384-leonard-curtis-under-fire-over-nigel-russell-deal.html#

Clubeasy student housing subsidiary goes bankrupt
http://www.tigerlime.com/2015/01/30/clubeasy-student-housing-subsidiary-goes-bankrupt/

200 Singaporeans could lose up to $20m as UK developer becomes insolvent
http://www.propertyavenue.com.sg/200-singaporeans-could-lose-up-to-20m-as-uk-developer-becomes-insolvent/

Move to liquidate Student Property Fund
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5114ff24-966d-11e4-922f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3hjQL4Lrl
http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/2302659/gbp300m-student-accommodation-fund-suspended

Lots of student developments coming on-line, hence are the yields sustainable?

Student pods attacked over failure to deliver promised returns

===

> source: (Billing---) : http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/dfc11b5f-a47a-4eeb-979e-337b440a0650/buying+an+investment+property+in+the+uk+%28or+elsewhere%29/

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Over here in Wales house prices seem to be gradually deflating.

 

I do a once every 4 months search of property in Wales.

 

A lot of prices are going back to what they were in 2007.

 

Everything else being relatively equal, of course.

 

(And only anecdotal)

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Over here in Wales house prices seem to be gradually deflating.

 

 

Your observations are correct:

 

See http://www.home.co.uk/company/press/northern_powerhouse_faces_impossible_task_to_catch_up_with_the_south.htm

 

"Meanwhile, Scotland and Wales have suffered a similar fate as the North of England with asking prices down 4.56% in Wales and falling 5.72% in Scotland over the last seven years."

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SWIMMING Off the Cliff?

 

What developers need is that special feature which others lack

 

http://www.theverge.com/2015/8/20/9181333/sky-pool-london-embassy-gardens

 

London's sky pool will let the super-rich swim through the air

 

Sky_Pool1__med_res_.0.jpg

 

Would you like to own a flat under the pool? Not me

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I'm reading Clif High's latest report - Sept's ALTA

 

Quote:

The data sets are suggesting that in reaching the early 2020s, some items of 'value' in today's broken financial world will be worth 99% less than they now fetch! These include things like real estate, art, other 'collectibles' and such....

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Scary numbers!

Will the refugee madness prop up property for an extra few years?

 

The end of social housing for Britons in need. Welcome to International Socialism.

 

Market Oracle: Syrian Refugee Crisis to Result in UK Council and Social Housing Waiting Lists Freeze Catastrophe

 

Whilst David Cameron plucks figures out the air such as for the relocation of 20,000 Syrian refugees over the next few years, the reality will probably be nearer 20 times that figure, 400,000, but the bottom line is that whilst the likes of Germany has the capacity to house as many as 500,000 refugees per year, Britain does not have the capacity to house even 5,000 per year! My best advice for those in social housing is that if you are contemplating moving then the time to act is NOW for you will NOT be able to move in just a few months or even weeks time because social housing waiting lists are literally about to become permanently frozen under the weight of the need to house the large influx of refugees / migrants over the coming months and years.

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Oh, so that's what's supporting London property prices.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/09/26/neo-great-britain-is-a-centre-of-money-laundering/

 

Great Britain is a Centre of Money Laundering

....The Independent told its readers that billions of Pounds Sterling are laundered by criminals and foreign officials who buy expensive London real estate through offshore shell companies. Out of 36,342 private properties in London only recently bought through the shell companies from offshore zones, a huge number of the real estate was bought anonymously in order to hide stolen money.

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Paul Hodges Interview: UK house prices could fall 50% in global ‘Great Unwinding

Published on Sep 18, 2015

Paul Hodges Talks to Merryn Somerset Webb about the global economy’s ‘Great Unwinding’, and how Britain’s house prices could fall 50%

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UK Property - an Amber light has flashed ! (today)

 

PSN.L / Persimmon Plc ... 12-mos : All-data : 10d: 1915p - 32p - 144d MA is broken

 

PSN_zpsy0hcfgi9.gif

 

An amber, rather than Red light, because BDEV holds up

 

 

 

BDEV.L / Barratt Dev'l ... 12-mos : All-data : xx

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Wow.

 

Is that legal?

She'd be better off in a phone box

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Downtrend looks like it has legs, and even BDEV has joined in now.

 

UK Property - an Amber light has flashed ! (today)

 

PSN.L / Persimmon Plc ... 12-mos : All-data : 10d: 1915p - 32p - 144d MA is broken

 

PSN_zpsy0hcfgi9.gif

 

An amber, rather than Red light, because BDEV holds up

 

 

 

BDEV.L / Barratt Dev'l ... 12-mos : All-data : xx

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Yes

 

A long last, Barratt may be rolling over - but I await a confirmation

 

BDEV... update: Last: 569P ... PSN-5-yrs / Last: 18.44

 

BDEV-5yr_zpsnzbxq6gh.gif

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BTL investors will be hit with a 3% surcharge:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34922738





Property value/Standard rate/Buy-to-let/second home rate (April 2016)
Up to £125,000 0% 3%
£125 - £250,000 2% 5%

£250 - £925,000 5% 8%
£925 - £1.5m 10% 13%
over £1.5m 12% 15%

 

those 5% and 8% bands are quite a significant uplift, imo.

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Global Property : UBS is calling a peak...

The Swiss bank UBS - an even bigger player with $2 trillion under management - has issued its own gentle warning on bonds as the US Federal Reserve prepares to kick off the first global tightening cycle since 2004. UBS expects five rate rises by the end of next year, 60 points more than futures contracts, and enough to rattle debt markets still priced for an Ice Age.

Mark Haefele, the bank's investment guru, said his clients are growing wary of bonds but do not know where to park their money instead.

The UBS bubble index of global property is already flashing multiple alerts, with Hong Kong off the charts and London now so expensive that it takes a skilled worker 14 years to buy a broom cupboard of 60 square metres.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12014821/Elite-funds-prepare-for-reflation-and-a-bloodbath-for-bonds.html


http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03509/ubs_bubble_3509191b.jpg
ubs_bubble_3509191b.jpg

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