UK House prices: News & Views

[TrueNorth]

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/category/media/podcasts/feed/

 

MP3 : http://media.blubrry.com/howestreet/www.howestreet.com/audio/Hoye_Bob_2014_09_12.mp3

[drbubb]

Imagine the Big pride in Owning "the World's smallest house"

 

( No, it's not in Hong Kong )

 

 

GBP 275,000 ... in Islington, near Upper St.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/05/north-london-tiny-275k-house-for-sale-zoopla

[drbubb]

Scottish property market will stir back to life following referendum to stay in UK

This is Money - ‎3 hours ago‎

Some brokers said buyers were even making offers which were conditional on a No vote, while there were also warnings mortgage deals would have become harder to obtain if Scotland did become independent.

[borassic]

Something MSM are not reporting - The UK's current account deficit.

 

The excellent Tim Morgan gives us a reality check:

 

http://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/

[callmejoe]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-12/bargains-for-rich-as-costlest-london-homes-get-cheaper.html

 

Bargains for Rich as Costliest London Homes Get Cheaper

[callmejoe]

If you listen to Clif High's latest IDIR, he says there's going to be huge dumping of houses on the market, starting in Nov.

 

USA, Canada, UK, Australia, new Zealand, China

 

Banks dumping properties to raise money.

 

Really bad from Nov to March, after which it gets worse

 

Very substantial drops in house prices

[drbubb]

Being launched in Hong Kong

 

[drbubb]

London Property market - Hates those "crazy prices"

 

I see things like this offered in the HK newspaper (The Standard, Nov. 24, 2014)

 

London highrises, off-plan

 

Lexicon (36 storey glass tower, overlooking Regents canal) : 1 BR: from 695,000

Eagle Black (Art-deco tower, 3 minutes walk to Old Street ) : 1 BR: from 895,000

 

I am sorry folks, but these prices are way beyond madness.

Renting a GBP 700k flat with a 5% yield will cost : GBP xx per month

 

WHO can afford that?

Especially for a 1BR flat in what is not really a prime location (let's be honest)

 

This is crazy !
And the market is beginning to realise. (These projects could crash, I reckon.)

 

At the SMART property conference this weekend, there were three outside-London

properties being promoted, and I spoke to the people promoting them, and they

quietly admitted that "London Luxury property prices have dropped."

One guy said: "Some of the properties above GBP 2mn are down 20%"

 

Let's shout it from the rooftops !

 

(Actually, some of the outside London properties at GBP 150 - 300 psf may make sense.

I think people will "play the arb", by selling down in London, and buying outside.

Especially the baby boomers.)

[callmejoe]

Clif High has predicted that people will turn away from investing in property for generations.

If so, not only will prices crash, they'll stay down for the forseeable future.

 

Hmmm, if they sell flats in Gilbert House in the Barbican for 50 gold sovereigns, I might buy one .... or 2

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29041266.html

[drbubb]

Gilbert House:

1 bedroom flat for sale Gilbert House, Barbican, London, EC2Y

Sold STC £700,000

Prev Next

Sold STC

Property Description

Full description

Tenure: Leasehold

SOUTH FACING, ONE BEDROOM flat with STUDY/ storage area. Retaining many original features, including the Brooke Marine kitchen, original bathroom and separate w.c.
This lovely one bedroom flat is presented in immaculate order with views towards the historic St Giles-without-Cripplegate church.
===

 

Looks Nutty to me...

Especially when I know what it costs to buy something nice in Chiang Mai

[drbubb]

UPDATING ... UK Houseprice Data

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 153,844 - 0.10% / 163,481 169,777 168,390 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% :sa

F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 153,896 +0.03% / 161,320 166,857 166,928 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2%

M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 151,803 - 1.36% / 164,519 168,521 168,435 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2%

A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 160,233 +5.55% / 167,802 168,202 168,593 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% :

M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 160,582 +0.22% / 169,162 167,570 167,207 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%

J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 159,587 - 0.62% / 170,111 166,203 165,686 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 159,348 - 0.15% / 169,347 167,425 167,497 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%

A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 158,607 - 0.46% / 166,507 = n/a = 168,124 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5%

S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,360 - 0.79% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1%

O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 158,788 +0.91% / 164,279 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,777 :- 0.25% :143.7% :H

N : : 229,379 : 417,279 : 153,519 - 3.32% / 163,133 = n/a = 164,622 163,268 : £163,201 :- 0.96% :140.5% :

D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : 150,592 - 1.91% / 162,249 = n/a = 162,803 161,498 : £161,874 :- 0.81% :137.4% :

==

Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2013

J. : : 229,429 : 480,890 : 144,748 : = N/A = / 162,245 = n/a = 162,844 160,613 : £161,429 : - 0.40% : 142.1% :

F. : : 235,741 : 486,298 : 146,748 : = N/A = / 162,638 = n/a = 163,600 162,011 : £162,325 : +0.56% : 145.3% :

M : : 239,710 : 496,298 : 148,259 : = N/A = / 164,630 = n/a = 163,943 163,930 : £164,280 : +1.20% : 145.9% :

A : : 244,706 : 493,635 : 151,518 : = N/A = / 165,586 = n/a = 166,175 167,026 : £166,745 : +1.50% : 146.8% :

M : : 249,841 : 509,870 : 153,391 : = N/A = / 167,912 = n/a = 166,898 167,831 : £167,898 : +0.68% : 148.8% :

J. : : 252,798 : 515,243 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 168,941 = n/a = 167,984 170,184 : £169,563 : +0.99% : 149.1% :

Jl : : 253,658 : 515,378 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 170,825 = n/a = 169,624 172,015 : £171,420 : +1.10% :

A. : : 249,199 : 501,067 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 170,514 = n/a = 170,149 170,098 : £170,306 : -0.65% :

S. : : 245,495 : 493,748 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 172,127 = n/a = 170,767 170,908 : £171,518 : +0.71% :

O : : 252,418 : 544,232 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 173,678 = n/a = 171,991 172,554 : £173,116 : +0.93% :

N : : 246,237 : 517,276 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 174,566 = n/a = 174,910 174,671 : £174,619 : +0.87% :

D : : 241,455 : 513,466 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 175,826 = n/a = 173,467 171,064 : £173,445 : - 0.67% :

 

Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2014

J. : : 243,881 : 514,704 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 176,491 = n/a = 175,546 173,104 : £174,798 : +0.78% :

F. : : 251,964 : 541,313 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 177,846 = n/a = 179,872 178,401 : £178,124 : +1.90% :

M : : 255,962 : 552,530 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 180,264 = n/a = 178,249 177,840 : £179,052 : +0.52% :

A : : 262,594 : 572,348 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 183,577 = n/a = 177,524 178,430 : £181,004 : +1.09% :

M : : 272,003 : 592,763 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 186,512 = n/a = 184,464 185,747 : £186,130 : +2.83% :

J. : : 272,275 : 589,776 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 188,903 = n/a = 183,462 186,336 : £187,620 : +0.80% :

Jl : : 270,159 : 587,174 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 188,949 = n/a = 186,322 189,726 : £189,338 : +0.92% :

A. : : 262,401 : 552,783 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 189,306 = n/a = 186,240 185,997 : £187,652 : -0.81% :

S. : : 264,875 : 557,792 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 188,374 = n/a = 187,188 187,018 : £187,696 : +0.02% :

O : : 271,669 : 596,692 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 189,333 = n/a = 186,135 185,517 : £187,425 : -0.14% :

N : : 267,127 : 601,180 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 189,388 = n/a = 186,941 187,523 : £188,456 : +0.55% :

D : :

 

Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom :

==========================================

mom:+1.18% : +1.05% :: Est. DI : : 149.1% / +0.61% = n/a = : +0.44% : +0.48% : +0.99% :

===

Links: Halifax : Nationwide :Rightmove : Hometrack : Home.co.uk : KnFr-PrimeC

 

>

 

WHERE's the BEEF?

Increases in Asking prices - from Oct. 2007 to Spring (April) 2014

Gr. London: +41.8%

Eng&Wales : + 8.7%

South East. : + 8.4%

South West : + 4.1%

East Anglia. : + 2.4%

West Midlds : - 2.5%

East Midlds. : - 4.2%

North -------- : - 5.4%

Wales-------- : - 7.4%

Yorks&Humb: - 7.5%

North West- : - 8.8%

[tinecu]

 

At the SMART property conference this weekend, there were three outside-London

properties being promoted, and I spoke to the people promoting them, and they

quietly admitted that "London Luxury property prices have dropped."

One guy said: "Some of the properties above GBP 2mn are down 20%"

 

Let's shout it from the rooftops !

 

(Actually, some of the outside London properties at GBP 150 - 300 psf may make sense.

I think people will "play the arb", by selling down in London, and buying outside.

Especially the baby boomers.)

 

See: http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=belgravia&lastyear=1

[drbubb]

HOME Prices in London Surpass Hong Kong - SCMP Headline

.

==========: US$/SF : %Lon.: F/X : Lcl-FX/ SF : x 10.76 (/SM)

London---- : 3,380 : 100 % : 1.57 : GBP 2,153 :

Hong Kong- : 3,290 : 97.3% : 7.75 : HKD 25,498 :

New York--- : 3,042 : 90.0% : 1.00 : USD 3,042 :

Sydney------ : 2,030 : 60.1% : 0.83 : AUD 2,445 :

Paris--------- : 1,860 : 55.0% : 1.24 : EUR 1,500 :

Singapore -- : 1,605 : 47.4% : 1.31 : SGD 2,102 :

Los Angeles : 1,500 : 44.4% : 1.00 : USD 1,500 :

Tokyo ------- : 1,380 : 40.8% : 119 : JPY 164,220 :

Mumbai----- : 1,225 : 36.2% :

Milan/Rome : 1,000 : 29.6% : 1.24 : EUR 0,806

OTHER Cities)

Philadelphia- : $ 102 : 03.0% : 1.00 : USD$142,300/house (1400sf.Est)

Washingt.DC : $ 198 : 05.9% : 1.00 : USD$443,000/house (2237sf) almost 2X larger

Makati, Phil.- : $ 298 : 08.8% : 44.5 : PHP 13,267 : 142,750/sm

Bangkok, Th. : $ 303 : 09.0% : 32.8 : THB 09,944 : 107,000/sm

 

"However, HK could regain its position, as prices are in an upswing"

(and the HKD and USD are strong against other currencies")

[drbubb]

London is exceptional, but can it stay so?

"London should break free from Little England" - Philip Stephens in today's Asian-FT /

=

"London does not need a mayor; it needs a Prime Minister"

"The world's most vibrant capital city cannot entrust its faith to a little England."

"The economics of independence speak for themselves"

+ Population of 8.5 million (13.5 million in wider Metro area) accts for 1/5th of Britain's GDP

+ An economy which is "the size of Sweden" (which has a population of XX million)

+ Unemployment is less than 3 percent, and the demographic is younger than the rest of UK

+ Tourists spend GDP 20 Billion p.a.

+ London is a hub of global businesses, & hums with energy, enterprise, & people having fun

 

"London should eschew centralised govt., adopting a federal constitution"

"Power is best exercised closer to the people"

"A liberated capital would show that diversity is its strength" (cough, cough)

"The pinched English nationalists of UKIP... would cry foul...

(are) confounded by London's success." (are they? really?)

[borassic]

London is now the world's Blackpool...

[callmejoe]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-31/uk-literally-runs-out-bricks-scramble-build-unprecedented-housing-bubble

 

UK Literally Runs Out Of Bricks In Scramble To Build Unprecedented Housing Bubble

[drbubb]

London Property's advantages are under threat

 

Global Game changers - FT article in Sat. edition

 

Liam Bailey, Knight Frank:

"From London to Hong Kong, the one constant of post-financial crisis residential markets has been the

ratcheting up of property taxation, and restrictions on property purchases..."

"Affordability of housing has become a growing issue in lots of cities..."

(Some restrictions) "... are designed explicitly to penalize foreign buyers"

 

Yolanda Barnes, Savills:

"Across the developed world, capital is concentrated in the hands of older, homeowning households.

Globally, the generational divide between equity rich "boomers" and equity-poor "millennials"

is significant and growing."

. . .

"No choice renting is rising fast" (for the under 40's)

"We need to find new ways to help disenfranchised generations accumulate equity, and access home

ownership..."

(Am I getting a wiff of Income Redistribution, from these London based commentators?)

[drbubb]

London's Lead is falling down

 

 

Prime reasons to Quit London - FT, 2/15/2015

 

The family friendly towns and cities attracting buyers from the capital... Many people are choosing to flee the capital for small, more family friendly cities

 

In a report entitled, "new Prime Urban markets", Knight Frank highlighted four locations they think will be worthy of Special attention.

 

(What GBP 1 million can buy you in...):

+ Oxford: A 3BR, semi-detached house in Jericho, near the city centre

+ Cheltenham: A 5BR, Regency townhouse in the centre

+ Bristol: A 4BR, Edwardian house in Clifton, an affluent suburb

+ Bath: A pretty six BR townhouse, a short walk from the city centre

 

What they're aiming for:

"The Best of both worlds, (a cheaper price, like 40-50% cheaper and) ... you can be in the centre of town and have the buzz of being in London, with coffee shops and restaurants, and in 10 minutes you're walking through a field overlooking and empty valley" (or some other non-urban experience you may favor.)

 

"They are all very different... But they have similar drivers: good schools, a good cultural offer, and attractive period housing - and that's what sets them apart."

 

The price shift has already started, with three of these areas outperforming London:

+ Prime Central London : +5.1%

+ Bath : +5.0%

+ Oxford : +6.1%

+ Bristol and Cheltenham, both: +6.8%

[drbubb]

This project is being promoted in HK now

 

[drbubb]

A creative solution to the wealth drain into the Top 1%

 

A fiscal fix to the peculiarly flawed property market - John Muellbauer, pg.7

 

"no other advanced country has such an unfair property tax."

 

What he is talking about is the Council band system, where taxes are based on outdated valuiations, rather than current values which can be easily obtained from websites like Rightmove.

 

The result of using this old system is that :

+ A home in Band H pays only 30% of the tax of a home in Band A (the lowest valuation), and

+ A home in a GBP 2.4 mn home pays only pays only 7.5% as much as a home in Band A (worth GBP 60k)

 

An important reason this is done is that there are many (mostly older?) people who are asset rich, and cash poor - and so would have trouble finding the cash to pay the tax.

 

Mr Muellbauer suggests that the tax could be paid as a share of equity:

"Suppose the the tax rate was 1%. For those choosing tax deferral, the govt would register a 1% per cent gross equity stake, to be paid out at the next transfer of ownership."

 

This new system would encourage downsizing, and:

"There would be many economic benefits, not the least productivity gains from the better use of housing stock."

[drbubb]

UK HousePriceCrash "hopes":

 

"London is estimated to go down by 3.6% this year, the FT reporting that prime property sales are down by 80%..."

 

> HPC-#6604:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/195761-is-prime-london-crashing/page-441

 

But the Barratt bellwether is not yet in harmony with the Bears ... update

 

[TrueNorth]

Didn't Fred Harrison say it won't be until 2018 that the bubble pops?

 

edited to add: just checked: 2019

 

Well, according to the 18-year cycle theory, the mid-cycle downturn is still five years away. That means the agonising over bursting bubbles is premature. But it also means that the house price take-off, which began early this time, will be all the more painful next time.

Most of the pain, of course, will not be felt by London property owners. The proportion of high loan-to-value mortgages has reached 25% in the north-east, compared to 7% in London, according to data provided by chartered surveyors e.surv.

The economics of apartheid continue to operate, with a vengeance, thanks to the cash subsidies and indemnities from Cameron’s coalition government.

from: http://www.sharetherents.org/return-sub-prime/

[drbubb]

Good and Bad for BTL

 

Here are some Ratings from the Global Property Guide

 

Location---- : Yield% : Rating--- : L.T. :

Hong Kong-- : 2.82% : Very Poor : 2

Singapore--- : 2.83% : Very Poor : 2

UK, London : 3.21% : Very Poor : 2

US, New York: 3.91% : Very Poor : 3

Aust., Sydney : 4.39% : Poor ---- : 2

Malaysia, K.L. : 4.57% : Poor ---- : 4

 

(Better)

Japan, Tokyo : 5.02% : Moderate- : 2

Thail,Bangkok : 5.13% : Moderate- : 4

New Z., Auckl.: 6.09% : Mod.toGood: 4

Phil.,M.Manila : 7.51% : Good ---- : 3

Costa Rica, SJ : 8.38% : Excellent- : 3

Panama,PCity : 8.99% : Excellent- : 5

===

> http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/investment-rating

 

Question:

What Locations are most heavily marketed in HK?

There's a connection to the ratings, certainly!

Why do you suppose that is?

(Quick answer: think about the size of commissions)

[drbubb]

The huge lie at the heart of britain's housing policy

FT: A debate on UK housing is conducted in bad faith

 

"Britain can build many more houses and remain green and pleasant"

Yes we can have more wildlife and Housing (especially with a land value tax)

[drbubb]

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-31/uk-literally-runs-out-bricks-scramble-build-unprecedented-housing-bubble

 

UK Literally Runs Out Of Bricks In Scramble To Build Unprecedented Housing Bubble

 

 

Doesn't that mean:

They are building more properties than the UK's brick-making capacity can support?

--- i.e. A record amount of new homes?