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UK House prices: News & Views

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PRICES IN LONDON RUN OUT OF STEAM - scmp, P5

 

Concerns over overpaying prompt homebuyers to step back from the market as common sense takes hold

 

Asking prices for London homes fell from a record this month... according to Rightmove

 

- 0.5% : to GBP 589,776, the first decline this year

- 0.3% : to GBP 2.38 million in Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive area

 

Rightmove cited:

+ New tougher mortgage rules, and

+ Cooling in demand

 

In the past year:

: London prices are up 14.5%

: British homes prices up 7.7%

 

(Partly seasonal, I think. But Important tops can be made when prices "fall under their own weight")

 

London, Final Rally: http://tinyurl.com/L-FinalRally

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Money Week: What the builders are telling us about house prices.

 

Shares in builders have dropped over 20% from their peak in late February. Could this be telling us something?

By Dominic Frisby

Want to know which way the housing market is headed?

Take a look at the builders. They’re a pretty reliable indicator.

And here’s the thing – having peaked in the spring, they’re now in a bear market that’s starting to look entrenched.

Does this mean our great post-financial-crisis house-price boom is now over?

It could well be.

I should say, I don’t own any shares in any of the building companies and, at present, I’ve no plans to buy any. But I do like to keep an eye on what they’re doing.

. . .

Something similar happened during the last major crash of the early Nineties. The house-builders told us a bust was coming, the bust came and the housebuilders began to rally long before house prices started to pick up steam. I wrote about this relationship in great detail back in April – read it here.

It’s interesting to note, by the way, how far off their 2007 highs many of the builders still are. Barratt – almost 1,300p in 2007; 349p today. Taylor Wimpey – over 500p in 2007; 103p today. Bovis – 1,200p in 2007, 732p today. Compare this to the FTSE 100 which is trading at about the same price (6,754 was the 2007 high and, indeed, yesterday’s close).

The Berkeley Group – which is more focused on London – has dramatically outperformed the other builders, and sits almost 20% above its 2007 highs. This reflects Britain’s two housing markets – London and everywhere else.

==

> more: http://moneyweek.com/what-housebuilders-are-telling-us-about-britains-property-market/

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Telegraph: Mark Carney: Bank 'will not hesitate' to cool UK housing boom

 

The Bank of England "will not hesitate" to take further action to cool Britain's booming housing market and stop the economy from boiling over, Mark Carney has said. On the day official data showed the average UK house price is ten times bigger than the average salary, the Governor used the Bank's annual report to highlight the steps it had already taken to prevent people from taking out unaffordable mortgages. Mr Carney said the Bank was prepared to use its so-called macro-prudential toolkit to support these steps.

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Telegraph: Mark Carney: Bank 'will not hesitate' to cool UK housing boom

 

The Bank of England "will not hesitate" to take further action to cool Britain's booming housing market and stop the economy from boiling over, Mark Carney has said. On the day official data showed the average UK house price is ten times bigger than the average salary, the Governor used the Bank's annual report to highlight the steps it had already taken to prevent people from taking out unaffordable mortgages. Mr Carney said the Bank was prepared to use its so-called macro-prudential toolkit to support these steps.

 

 

Watch what they do, not what they say.

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New highs being achieved in London. Whilst sale volumes are down as are the number of willing buyers or those able to buy at these new highs, there are still sufficient willing buyers. A number of lenders in my view are acting in a reckless manor offering very high loan to values that in turn are pushing values up even further. The London market is not slowing down. Confidence is very high.

 

On another note there has been a marked increase in buyers cashing in and moving outside the M25 within reasoanble travel distance of London. I would expect to see further significant increases in these areas. The ripple effect.

 

Also alot of talk of investors now seeking good yields in northern cities like Manchester, Leeds Liverpool, Sheffield especially ones that have good and popular universities.

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"On another note there has been a marked increase in buyers cashing in and moving outside the M25 within reasonable travel distance of London"

 

A very sensible move, especially if they can eliminate their mortgages, by doing so !

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I away on my travels with work right now and in the gym this morning at 7am was some property programme on TV. I don't watch TV hence usually avoid these things. But really FFS 7am!

 

Another reminder of how obsessed the British are with property.

 

Given the governments perennial mandate for ever higher prices I wouldn't be surprised if they had an unseen hand in this diet of propaganda fed to the general public.

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Nadeem:

"My consistent warnings have been to ignore Bank of England warnings of bursting the UK housing bull market for all Mark Carney is doing is playing a game of misdirection where whilst publically stating one thing of threatening to burst the bubble whilst privately the BoE acts to do the opposite by ensuring that the housing bull market remains well supported."

 

Meantime, BDEV is showing some signs of recovery ... update

 

BDEV_zpsc11187e4.gif

 

- 76d has not yet crossed below the 252d MA

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Reuters UK - ‎13 minutes ago‎






British house prices rose at their fastest annual pace in more than nine years last month, and prices in London have shown their biggest jump in a generation, figures from mortgage lender Nationwide showed on Wednesday.

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Are ultra-high Housing prices part of a plot by the elites controlling the planet ??

 

====

NWO Secret Agenda : Young "not allowed to own homes... kept as renters" (to control them better?)

 

This information, from a 1969 secret talk, revealed plans to stop most young people from Home owning

The NWO Agenda - as revealed in 1969



(excerpt: 11:00 minutes):

" People that already owned houses would be allowed to keep them but young people would never be able to afford a home. Cost of homes would not come down even with all the empty houses. They would control the price of homes to turn more and more people into renters.

People would be assigned where they would live and they would assign non family members to live with you. That’s why the census asks how many bedrooms you have in the home."

 

Is this the hidden agenda of the BofE, and the UK Banks ?

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40% of UK Wealth is "False Wealth" says the FT

> http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8d5c6ed8-0c0a-11e4-a096-00144feabdc0.html

The link doesn't work for me, so here's a summary that I picked up from another website:

"Here's the short general idea in my own words...
They say more than £3th of assets = 40 percent of UK wealth, are what planning restrictions have added to house prices, they are the ransom that recent buyers and renters are forced to pay to homeowners, this is plunder, from younger to older, from poorer to richer. But if we let people build more houses we turn the false wealth into real wealth of houses and flats, improving living conditions, creating jobs, and making society fairer and more equal."


Hmm.
I don't entirely understand that.
I do "get" that ultra-low interest rates can Pump up house prices to false levels, persuading people that they are wealthier than they really are. We saw that in the US, and many people went out and spent that wealth on things they did not need. When home prices fell, any debt they took on secured by false wealth was still there, when the wealth melted away.

I do not get how borrowing against false wealth and spending much of it on home construction is much better than on other items, except that housing assets might be somewhat more durable than many other assets.

In any case, there is likely to be a Debt problem when the bubble bursts.

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Houses are selling like hotcakes in the north of scotland. Prices are definitely higher than before. We are now thinking we should buy, mostly because we are fed up with dealing with intrusive landlords. Our rent will have gone up +10% in 2.5 years, to £1000 by the end of this year. For £200 more/month we can buy a larger, older home, and walk to work instead of commuting by car.

 

I still hate the idea of buying in this overheated market, but I would like a bit of freedom to do as I please.

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It's a spill over from the artificial finance, don't you think?

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Yes, I blame HelpTheBuilders®. It has simply served to inflate prices by the amount of "free" money on offer.

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Is there a London property bubble?


Aug 14, 2014 : Talk of a London property bubble is the topic du jour in the city. Kate Allen, property correspondent, debates with investment editor James Mackintosh whether it is a bubble or merely prices reacting rationally to demand outstripping meagre supply.




Up 20% in the last year... The most in the last decade


+ Happening while economic growth is near stagnant

+ Price rises are spreading out... to Greater London

+ Homebuilding has been restrained while Households have increased

+ Why do employers have to stay in London?

+ Affordability for First-time buyers is very poor - near 9x Average Earnings

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London record biggest Price Drop in 6 years - SCMP Today

 

(this headline won't surprise GEI's regular readers... but Be Careful*...)

 

5.9% Drop in Month-on-month Asking prices in August

Home sellers slash asking rates as market in British capital endures steep summer slump

 

+ London prices fell 5.9% from July to average: GBP 552,783 (HK$ 7.15 million), per Rightmove

+ Nationally, prices fell 2.9 %, a record for an August

+ Cost of mortgages are going up, limiting what buyers will pay

+ Biggest drops were in affluent areas, like Kensington & Chelsea (-7%), Camdem, H'smith/Fulham

+ Yr-on-yr prices down -1.4% in K&C, and up 10.3% in London as a whole

 

===

 

*the "Be Careful" comes from observation of BDEV, which is showing some signs of recovery.

A continuation of the rally is not impossible, if BDEV can make new highs

 

BDEV_zps2427030e.gif

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This is from the latest Clif High's report

By late Nov /Dec, you should start seeing ..... the housing market described for 2014 in the US and in Britain, as getting ready for a depression style deflation or a dump of prices
It's going to get real ugly in terms of how that occurs as there is this race ... to get out

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A good time to buy Puts on IYR ?

 

 

This is from the latest Clif High's report

By late Nov /Dec, you should start seeing ..... the housing market described for 2014 in the US and in Britain, as getting ready for a depression style deflation or a dump of prices
It's going to get real ugly in terms of how that occurs as there is this race ... to get out

 

 

IYR / iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (ETF) ... update

 

IYR_zps1be9eb1f.gif

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Bob Hoye cites the drop in London property prices as a key indicator in his Talk Digital report on 22/08/2014 [podcast].

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I couldn't find that interview, Here's one he did with GoldSeek in May

(they were then talking about Gold's underperformance)

 

 

... and a more recent one, from the end of August

 

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