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G0ldfinger

UK House prices: News & Views

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(£169,316 - £164,654) / £169,316 = 2.75%

 

:blink:

 

I think this is the biggest monthly fall EVER*

 

*(NSA, on the 1991 – present monthly spreadsheet)

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Save a copy before you start.

 

1. Copy and paste the data from the linked spreadsheet in to your spreadsheet. Date (quarters) and Price

2. Press CTRL and H

3. Type ‘Q1 ‘ in the first box and ‘01/01/’ into the second box. Then click ‘Replace All’ (note, there is a space after Q1)

4. Do the same for the other quarters

5. Right click the chart and select ‘Chart Type’. Change to ‘XY (scatter)’ if it isn’t already selected

6. Now add the new data line

7. Right click the new data line and select ‘Format Data Series’. On the patterns tab, you can match the line type to the other nationwide line so they both look the same.

 

The Nationwide data will look like it is one continuous line switching from quarters to months (but it will be shown twice on your key)

 

Come back to me if this wasn’t clear

 

I've put you on speed-dial under "Excel Help desk" :D

Obviously I must read the manual.

 

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The pathetic attempts to put a positive spin on the figures sums up this joke of a government perfectly. I wonder what the bovine excrement being fed to the masses in 12 months will be?

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I think this is the biggest monthly fall EVER*

 

*(NSA, on the 1991 – present monthly spreadsheet)

 

If we're talking not seasonally adjusted, then this month's 2.75% isn't the biggest drop ever: that's this May's unadjusted 2.78%! :lol:

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If we're talking not seasonally adjusted, then this month's 2.75% isn't the biggest drop ever: that's this May's unadjusted 2.78%! :lol:

 

Green shoots of recovery? :lol:

 

Once the job losses start, May 2008 will look like ‘the-good-old-days’. (Unfortunately, I’ll be unemployed, so I won’t be laughing when it happens).

 

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Fionula was on BBC radio earlier.

...

What's wrong with her really? Why the spin? 'Crash & burn' is what she should be telling us.

 

Video on front page Bloomberg now.

 

Here the Chart from the BBC article:

 

_44965390_house_prices_08_08.gif

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What's wrong with her really? Why the spin? 'Crash & burn' is what she should be telling us.

 

Video on front page Bloomberg now.

 

Here the Chart from the BBC article:

 

_44965390_house_prices_08_08.gif

 

Nationwide and Fionula need to start thinking about their credibility. The more I hear their horse **** the less likely I am to trust them with my money.

 

There’s a better version of the BBC chart at GHPC

 

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...st&p=355891

 

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It's OK, "it's only a number" :lol: :lol: :lol:

...

:blink: Yeah, right. That also made me wonder about her intentions.

 

Says the BTLer: "Hey, my negative equity is -£200,000. But, dude, that's just a number."

 

Skiing chart cracks me up.

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Here's a little chart that attempts to gauge house affordability over the last two or three bubbles... ;)

 

houseaffordabilityme1.th.jpg

 

The Green Line is the familiar Real (as in not nominal) House Price plot. That does make the recent bubble look like a biggie. But obviously that doesn't necessarily represent affordability all that well. As the UK government got so fond of asserting before the summer recess, 'it's different this time'... :lol:

 

Interest rates are certainly lower which has its effect on mortgage repayments, as the Red Line shows. That's a plot of mortgage repayments (assuming 100% LTV) based on real house prices AND the LIBOR rate. As you can see, that would appear to make the real monthly cost of repaying an average mortgage higher back in 1989, even though the real house prices were lower back then.

 

Just as a quick add on, there's a plot of the LIBOR rate (the Blue Line). You'll have to forgive that it doesn't have its own Y-axis as I ran out of Y-axes! But it gives a rough idea of the relative LIBOR rates over the years. Because of the lack of an associated axis, I'll tell you that the LIBOR rates range between 3.93% and 15.41%.

 

Despite the fact that it would seem that houses were more affordable at the close of 2007 than they were 18 years before, that hasn't stopped house prices apparently dropping much faster, as we've seen from today's figures.

 

Any thoughts gratefully received! :)

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...

Any thoughts gratefully received! :)

Very nice chart. I have seen similar ones before. There are two problematic issues: (1) LTV is important. E.g. I think leverage was higher in this boom. (2) The spread between LIBOR and the mortgage rates is important. E.g. as far as I know it is wider now than 1-2 years ago. It's difficult to get reliable data for longer time intervals on LTVs and the spread.

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SNIP

 

Any thoughts gratefully received! :)

 

It’s almost impossible to create a true affordability index. Your index is as good as anyone else’s, on the grounds that you have stated all your assumptions (and sources).

 

There are other complications if you want to consider them:

 

** Average earnings index is growing faster than inflation

 

** MIRAS

 

** Number of people working per house hold

 

** (Higher) taxes

 

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A great day for UK property bears.....

(denial phase amongst the sheeple must be about to end soon)

 

Enjoy with a celebratory glass of wine tonight:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080828/tuk...my-fa6b408.html

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ears/article.do

 

Here's the nationwide house price: gold ratio for the UK. Now at 383.5 for the average house, from a peak of 695.4 (44.9 % drop).

 

Anyone care to suggest how far this ratio may fall?

goldUKhouseprices.PNG

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A great day for UK property bears.....

(denial phase amongst the sheeple must be about to end soon)

 

Enjoy with a celebratory glass of wine tonight:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080828/tuk...my-fa6b408.html

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ears/article.do

 

Here's the nationwide house price: gold ratio for the UK. Now at 383.5 for the average house, from a peak of 695.4 (44.9 % drop).

 

Anyone care to suggest how far this ratio may fall?

just a stab in the dark - 100 ounces

 

you cant go wrong with bricks and mortar

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Nicholas Leeming, a director at online agents propertyfinder.com, said: "August was exceptionally quiet and July was also very quiet. There is likely to be an early shut down of the market for Christmas, so November will be dead as well as December. In any down period the quiet times come early."

 

they have broke up already then - hope they had a good party

 

 

now that the term credit crunch can be understood by the populace

 

is there any chance of getting the word malinvestment out in the open

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Nationwide and Fionula need to start thinking about their credibility. The more I hear their horse **** the less likely I am to trust them with my money.

 

There’s a better version of the BBC chart at GHPC

 

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...st&p=355891

 

To be fair to her, some of her past hints have been erring on the side of caution.

 

http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php...y_template.html

 

Nevertheless, she warned that buyers should be wary of stretching themselves to get on the housing ladder.

 

 

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