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UK House prices: News & Views

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FEEDING that Old "nesting instinct", rather than overcoming it

 

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It's fair to say that Help To Buy has gone down as well as Boris Johnson on a zip wire.

 

The Bank of England governor and the IMF are among the more prominent, but in no way the only, critics of the Government’s latest initiative to help first-time buyers on to the property ladder.

 

The scheme is scheduled to launch next year and will allow buyers with a deposit of 5% to buy a home more easily. The Government is going to do this by under-writing the risk of lending to buyers with less equity.

===

 

/more: http://uk.finance.ya...-132820528.html

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Have THE RICH stopped Flocking to London ??

 

i6xOZyXH0B5k.jpg

 

The market for luxury homes in London is cooling at a time when prices for less-expensive properties are picking up, helped by a credit-boosting program by the Bank of Englandand the U.K. Treasury. While demand for prime real estate remains strong, Knight Frank said would-be buyers of homes valued at as much as 2 million pounds ($3 million) are becoming more price sensitive.

 

“There is a discernible shift in the market,” Liam Bailey, global head of residential research at the London-based firm, said today in a report about the data. Anecdotal feedback confirms “that buyers are willing to agree to purchases, but only when prices are realistic,” he said.

== ==

 

The High-end Luxury market does not get the benefit of the Downpayment financial assistance

 

Follow link / as posted on the other thread:

 

London High-priced = London High-risk

 

HK's SCMP reported this with a different headline:

 

"London luxury market takes a hit

 

Capital suffers its smallest annual increase since 2009.

with Knightsbridge prices actually falling."

 

London's Luxury Homes Gain Least Since 2009

Bloomberg-2 Jun 2013

 

Central London luxury-home values rose last month by the smallest annual ...

The market for luxury homes in London is cooling at a time when prices ... low amid a dearth of revenue, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

 

Are HK People going to wake up ?

And realise that expensive London properties are NOT the low-risk safe have that the agents tell them they are ??

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An outlook on the English market

 

Are rising prices indicative of the property bubble bursting in London?

 

The numbers are dizzying. London property prices have now broken previous levels set in 2007 when the market was thought to be at its peak.

 

In the uber-fashionable Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the property website Rightmove says that the average property now costs £2.3 million, up 1.8 percent from just a month before, with an annual increase of 12.4 percent. Next door in Westminster, average prices are £1.6 million, up 10.4 percent from the previous year.

 

Less highly-prized areas like Camden now command an average price of just under a million pounds, with a monthly increase of 4.5 percent.

 

Overall, London property prices have risen by £22,000 over the past year. Asking prices for a two-bedroom property here now average £425,000, and you will be expected to pay much more in leafy neighbourhoods.

 

These inflated figures still seem to attract foreign buyers from cities like Singapore, used to dealing with many zeros per square foot. According to property company de Candole Residential, London at £2,540 per square foot is now the third most expensive city in the world for property, after Monaco and Hong Kong.

 

Can this continue? In order to make an educated punt on this, we have to look at why it's happening in the first place.

. . .

In its effort to kick-start the housing market elsewhere in the UK, it recently announced a new scheme to help home buyers afford a deposit and make them more attractive to mortgage lenders, but this has been criticised as potentially adding fuel to the overcrowded London market.

 

A rise in interest rates, and a rise in sterling is likely to have a calming effect, but those on the run from political instability and insecurity will continue to come. Recent figures released by the Home Office shows that crime in the UK has fallen, with police-recorded crime down by 38 percent since 2002. This looks great if you are worried about your kids growing up somewhere unsafe.

 

/ more /

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(The latest wheeze being promoted in HK):

 

35 Minutes to London Euston

Hemel Hampstead Investment Property : link

 

19086883.jpg

 

Fabulous mixed-use development; introducing an enticing collection of apartments, small shops and coffee bars to the heart of Hemel Hempstead.

  • Rental investment property
  • One bedroom apartments £150,800
  • Two Bedroom apartments £240,400
  • Near Riverside Canals & Shopping Centre
  • London Euston in 35 minutes
  • Door to door
  • Shuttle service to train station
  • Runs during peak commute times
  • Excellent Rental Investment
  • Properties with two year rental guarantees
  • Yields of 5%
  • 3rd floor apartments all have very large private terraces
  • Concierge service

 

Is it me, or do all the cars in that mock-up appear to be Audis? Nicely subliminal!

 

I'm a touch south of Hemel (in Watford), and we have the same sort of stuff popping up here. More to come, as a big station redevelopment is planned, although that's been on hold for a few years now. There's an empty office block immediately opposite our mainline station that I'm certain will end up as "heart of urban living only 20 minutes from London" luxury appartments. Not sure if it's to capture people moving out of London, or trying to create a halo effect for people moving in. Possibly sits in the intersection of the Venn Diagram?

 

I'm at the point in my life where I'm seriously thinking about selling my little flat here and heading about 40 minutes further out along the mainline. Two bed house for more or less what my flat would go for, smaller town with more open countryside. Longer commute being the trade off. Buy on my own or rent with partner is the next question. Pass the crystal ball!

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I'm at the point in my life where I'm seriously thinking about selling my little flat here and heading about 40 minutes further out along the mainline. Two bed house for more or less what my flat would go for, smaller town with more open countryside. Longer commute being the trade off. Buy on my own or rent with partner is the next question. Pass the crystal ball!

 

As long as the Transport is good, and you have friends (or think you will make new friends) in the area: Then Why Not?

 

The arbitrage makes sense to me, and new transport (Crossraill) is coming to some areas

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Barratt had a big run up - far ahead of the FTSE, since mid-March.

.

No doubt, that was mainly due to the (irresponsible) deposit assistance scheme.

.

BDEV / Barratt Developments ... update

.

jgdp.png

.

The stock is now giving up some of that outsized gain, and the bullish follow-thru in the actual property markety may disappoint some over-eager property bulls.

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STRESS Rising... with House Prices ... ... ...

 

London housing crisis: high costs, high stress

 

New figures underline the depth and extent of Londoners' concerns about spiraling accomodation costs

A new poll for the Chartered Institute of Housing points to Londoners' deep anxiety about their housing costs and how much more widespread it is compared with the rest of the country. Figures gathered by Ipsos MORI earlier this month showed that 36% of respondents are already concerned about their ability to pay their rent or mortgage, 45% are worried that they won't be able to meet their payments in a year's time, and that 53% are caused a great deal or a fair amount of stress by the expense of their accommodation.


     

The findings are from the Greater London component of a national survey, and a comparison with the rest of the country underlines how keenly this aspect of the housing crisis in the capital is felt: the British average for concern about ability to meet costs now was 23%, while worry about a year into the future was 33% and the stat for stress was 36% - significantly high figures in each case, but also significantly lower than those specifically for London.

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KNIGHT-FRANK's latest report shows an interesting chart

 

/PDF: http://my.knightfran...ales-index.aspx

 

It shows Flat prices in Prime Central London shooting up much faster than House prices.

Might that be reflecting the impact of buyers from places like HK and Singapore?

 

EXCERPT:

The desire among buyers for lateral living has contributed to higher than average price

growth for flats over the past few years and this trend has continued in 2013 (figure 2).

 

The price of a luxury flat in prime central London is 3.5% higher than at the turn of

the year. Price growth for houses, while still positive, has been more muted over the same

period, rising by 2.6%.

 

International demand remains a key factor driving price growth and it is a trend we

explored in more detail in the recent London Residential Review. We are seeing a widening

of demand for prime London property towards new nationalities. For example searches from

Turkey on Knight Frank’s global website for property in London rose by 23% in the first

four months of 2013 compared to 2012. Turkish buyers’ overall market share has risen

from 0.6% of all PCL market to 1% over the same period. Over the past 12 months

Knight Frank has sold prime London property to 71 nationalities.

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Chinese buyers flee Hong Kong for overseas property markets

 

76439274.jpg

Visitors chat with sales representatives in front of a model of a London upmarket property developmment for sale in Hong Kong (BOBBY YIP, REUTERS / June 24, 2013)

Yimou Lee and Twinnie Siu Reuters

1:57 a.m. CDT, June 25, 2013

 

HONG KONG (Reuters) - On the seventh floor of a luxury hotel in the heart of Hong Kong, a Chinese couple listens carefully as an agent takes them on a virtual tour of an upmarket property development for sale - not in the former British colony, but in London.

 

Cash-rich mainland Chinese, who some in Hong Kong blame for pushing property prices to record highs, have fled the city's real estate market, scared off by cooling measures that have sent them scouring overseas for better options.

 

For many, the search starts in the ballrooms of Hong Kong's luxury hotels which host overseas property fairs nearly every weekend, offering prospective buyers a glimpse of homes abroad while providing refreshments such as sparkling water and the bite-sized Cantonese snack dim sum.

 

"We can only see pictures of the project now so that's why we have to go to London to take a look at the environment of the building," said Christina Chen, who flew with her husband from Shanghai to Hong Kong to check out plans of a development at London's Olympic Park before flying there herself to see it.

. . .

Hong Kong, where property prices are among the most expensive in the world, has imposed a series of tightening steps since October, including a 15 percent tax on foreigners that many industry watchers believe was targeted at mainland buyers.

 

"Mainland Chinese have lost the ticket to buy properties in Hong Kong, now that tightening measures are in force," said David Hui, overseas sales director at Centaline. "If they want to invest in property, they now need to go overseas."

 

HONG KONG OVERSEAS PROPERTY SALES JUMP

 

The flight abroad has taken them increasingly to Britain and the United States, where Chinese rank alongside Canadians as the fastest-growing group of buyers, data from the U.S. National Association of Realtors shows.

 

In London, overseas buyers accounted for 2.2 billion pounds ($3.4 billion) worth of new-build property in 2012, up from 1.8 billion pounds in 2011, according to estate agent Knight Frank. Buyers from greater China are among the top three.

 

The search for homes has accelerated, with Hong Kong's overseas property transactions jumping nearly 50 percent in May from a year earlier - of which mainland Chinese made up a fifth of sales, according to two property agents in the city.

 

More than 40 offshore projects are on offer in Hong Kong this month, most with price tags below HK$7 million ($900,000), with lawyers and bank representatives on hand for quick sales.

===

/more: http://www.chicagotr...0,5578624.story

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Might be a bit of a tangent, but there's a very interesting documentary series on BBC2 at the moment, covering how TfL keep London running. They've done a series about the Tube, but they're now covering the less obvious world of surface transport. Last night was all about night buses. Interesting stat for me was that the night bus network has trebled in the last ten years as the population has increased and the 24/7 city effect has radiated outwards and ever more people are working at night (cleaners, bar staff, clubs, restaurants and whatnot). People tend to focus on property prices being impacted by rail network enhancements (Overground, Thameslink, Crossrail etc), but the bus network strikes me as another useful indicator, just perhaps more subtle. Either way, fascinating programme. There was one guy who had lost his job and house in the credit crunch, who now worked during the day and more or less lived on the night bus. His tactic was to ride the longest route that heads deep into the suburbs and ultimately Heathrow T5. He'd then use the washroom facilities at the airport, try and grab some rest somewhere quiet and then ride the bus back. That sort of existence had simply never occurred to me. Depressing situation, for sure, but a remarkably innovative strategy for adapting to it.

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Might be a bit of a tangent, but there's a very interesting documentary series on BBC2 at the moment, covering how TfL keep London running. They've done a series about the Tube, but they're now covering the less obvious world of surface transport. Last night was all about night buses. Interesting stat for me was that the night bus network has trebled in the last ten years as the population has increased and the 24/7 city effect has radiated outwards and ever more people are working at night (cleaners, bar staff, clubs, restaurants and whatnot). People tend to focus on property prices being impacted by rail network enhancements (Overground, Thameslink, Crossrail etc), but the bus network strikes me as another useful indicator, just perhaps more subtle. Either way, fascinating programme. There was one guy who had lost his job and house in the credit crunch, who now worked during the day and more or less lived on the night bus. His tactic was to ride the longest route that heads deep into the suburbs and ultimately Heathrow T5. He'd then use the washroom facilities at the airport, try and grab some rest somewhere quiet and then ride the bus back. That sort of existence had simply never occurred to me. Depressing situation, for sure, but a remarkably innovative strategy for adapting to it.

 

This guy has done some urban exploration in New York - this is an interesting watch. There are plenty of places and niches people use to get buy, in the worlds most expensive places to live.

 

15mins in

 

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Question for our gold chartists - In view of the recent huge decline in gold priced against sterling are we getting near to the 2008 peak when valuing houses against gold. If not how much lower does gold have to go or house prices to increase? . especially were London is concerned.

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Question for our gold chartists - In view of the recent huge decline in gold priced against sterling are we getting near to the 2008 peak when valuing houses against gold. If not how much lower does gold have to go or house prices to increase? . especially were London is concerned.

I take it we are looking at these charts http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html

UK_House_Prices_in_Gold.png

One way to interpret these charts, is by the way of percentages. If we look from 1968 to now, as a poker player, the probability of drawing out a Royal Flush is pretty low - that is 100 ounces can buy you a house is a Royal Flush and Jackpot time. However if we are prepared to wait a long time that probability of drawing out a Royal Flush increases with time. If one is prepared to wait a long time, we'll get a good hand. Poker players can still profit without ever pulling out a Royal Flush - they make many smaller wins over time.

 

Remember according to the chart the "mean" is 269 gold ounces to one house. So Houses are getting cheap or good value in terms of gold right now, we shouldn't lose sight of that. Where are we now - about 150 gold ounces to one house?.

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It has been harder to maintain the bullish trend than some expected

- this may be why ...

 

Will London's Property Bull market survive an upturn in rates ? .... update : Last 6mos

 

z3wq.png

 

Perhaps not ... if rates keep on rising, and push thru 3% ... 4%... etc.

 

Barratt has already started to slide ... Last 6mos

 

4zc.gif

 

But BDEV is bouncing back from a correction

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I take it we are looking at these charts http://gold.approxim...old_charts.html

. . .

One way to interpret these charts, is by the way of percentages. If we look from 1968 to now, as a poker player, the probability of drawing out a Royal Flush is pretty low - that is 100 ounces can buy you a house is a Royal Flush and Jackpot time. However if we are prepared to wait a long time that probability of drawing out a Royal Flush increases with time...

 

I added some channels...

955i.png

Remember according to the chart the "mean" is 269 gold ounces to one house. So Houses are getting cheap or good value in terms of gold right now, we shouldn't lose sight of that. Where are we now - about 150 gold ounces to one house?.

 

Some recent Prices (per my data)

 

xx

xx

xx

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UK house prices grow at fastest rate for 3 years in June

 

MyFinances.co.uk 8 hours ago

Halifax reports the first annual rise in house prices since October 2010. The Halifax reports that UK house prices saw their first annual rise for 27 months, up by 1.3 per cent, despite falling by 0.2 per cent in January from December.

/ / /

Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: "UK house price growth continued to gather momentum in June, rising by 0.3% over the month. Indeed, the annual rate of house price growth increased to 1.9% in June - the fastest pace since September 2010.

"Demand for homes has been supported by further modest gains in employment, as well as an improvement in the availability and a reduction in the cost of credit, partly as a result of policy measures, such as the Funding for Lending Scheme," he added.

However, the latest data reveals a divide between prices in London and the south-east which are growing and the rest of the country where there is no growth or prices are rising marginally.

Prices in London went up by 5.2 per cent in the second quarter on an annual basis, taking the average price of a home in the capital to £318,214, five per cent higher than their peak of 2007

===

A 0.3% rise is "gathering momentum" ??

This story is gathering spin

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I take it we are looking at these charts http://gold.approxim...old_charts.html

UK_House_Prices_in_Gold.png

One way to interpret these charts, is by the way of percentages. If we look from 1968 to now, as a poker player, the probability of drawing out a Royal Flush is pretty low - that is 100 ounces can buy you a house is a Royal Flush and Jackpot time. However if we are prepared to wait a long time that probability of drawing out a Royal Flush increases with time. If one is prepared to wait a long time, we'll get a good hand. Poker players can still profit without ever pulling out a Royal Flush - they make many smaller wins over time.

 

Remember according to the chart the "mean" is 269 gold ounces to one house. So Houses are getting cheap or good value in terms of gold right now, we shouldn't lose sight of that. Where are we now - about 150 gold ounces to one house?.

 

I make it around 190 oz. I think it got to 147 oz at one point.

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House prices rising 'at fastest annual rate for three years'

 

BBC News - ‎1 hour ago‎

House prices are rising at their fastest annual rate for nearly three years, according to one of the UK's biggest mortgage lenders.

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Yes lets hope they keep rising as I am a home owner. S*d everyone else. <sigh> I hope this house will be worth £500K one day, and I can sail off into the sunset. May it be the best investment I've ever made. I guess those billions of Chinese, Russian, American, Japanese are all queuing outside right now to bid on it.

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They probably will do Notanewmember as there will be a fire sale in UK property when measured against the dollar. You will probably sale off in a dingy as that will all sterling will be worth.

 

THIS CHART supports your comment :

 

Sterling looks terrible - it could be set for a big drop ... update

 

hvm.gif x

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Dr B I think all these recent programs to subsidize UK buyers & prop up the builders are simply being seen in higher prices.

 

I think that is all that is required to explain the recent rise.

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I agree.

 

But it may touch off something bigger, outside London especially

 

BTW, is GBP 60,000 too much for Student Housing in Manchester ?

What sort of rents are achievable?

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