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G0ldfinger

UK House prices: News & Views

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Shitemove +2.8% lol.

 

Just to put it in context:

 

Feb 2013 +2.8%

Feb 2012 +4.1%

Feb 2011 +3.1%

Feb 2010 +3.2%

Feb 2009 +1.2%

Feb 2008 +3.2%

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Average London House Price to 500,000 by 2020 according to some "think tank"

they don't say what assumptions have been made to reach this conclusion.

http://www.dailymail...l#axzz2KaCAR6D4

 

As you hint:

The assumptions could be more interesting than the half-baked forecast

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London is in serious bubble territory with 10-12% growth year on year. I am seeing desperation back in the market with the desire to buy at all costs.

 

The governement money for lending scheme is a means for the banks to obtain cheap money to lend rather than the whole sale money markets. The government is making the classic mistake what not to do and that is borrow short and lend long. Hold on to your hats as the London Housing market rockets up or sit back, because when the lender of last resort pops ie the the UK God help us.

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I was speaking to someone recently who has been looking to buy a family home in London. She earns £200,000+pa, and her husband maybe £50,000. Having eventually come to the conclusion that they could barely afford a slum-clearance terraced house of yesteryear, in a second rate location, they have elected to sell their small flat and rent for a couple of years to "see what happens". They are not big believers in an inevitable HPC or anything, they just acknowledge that they are priced out of anything they would want to own and are just hoping circumstances change, maybe get posted elsewhere or something. I don't see how property continues to go up from here, even in London.

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I was speaking to someone recently who has been looking to buy a family home in London. She earns £200,000+pa, and her husband maybe £50,000. Having eventually come to the conclusion that they could barely afford a slum-clearance terraced house of yesteryear, in a second rate location...

 

Who is buying at such high prices?

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tho that doesn't necessarily mean they will go up in real terms.

I genuinely suspect we are in for a long period of extraordinary wealth disparity. However, oligarchs don't generally buy at the top of the market, do they? I can't help thinking there'll be a wash out first.

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http://metro.co.uk/2013/02/20/liverpool-homes-for-sale-for-just-1-after-failed-regeneration-project-3505106/

 

 

"Liverpool homes for sale for just £1 after failed regeneration project

 

 

Residents in Liverpool could bag a bargain home in the city after officials announced plans to sell off derelict houses in a failed regeneration zone for just £1.

City bosses hope the move will revive a stalled project after months of delays caused by the council’s decision to break off talks with developer Leader1.

The firm had been in line to redevelop hundreds of homes in the ‘Granby Triangle’ but city leaders pulled the £25million tender after the company failed to meet deadlines for signing the contract.

Deputy mayor and council finance chief Cllr Paul Brant said: ‘This allows people who may be excluded from mortgages but have construction skills to play a part in the regeneration of their communities.

‘It’s been proven to work in other parts of the region.

‘We’ve seen that the private sector model has not succeeded so far and, through this way of doing things, if there is any profit it will stay with local people.’

Since it was revealed the deal had fallen through in November last year the boarded up homes have remained empty.

Now, the council proposes to sell off a cluster of houses for just £1 to residents – on the condition they will be brought up to a decent standard.

Private landlords will also be able to bid for the tender to refurbish some of the vacant homes and then buy the freeholds for £1."

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An update for anyone interested who is following our house selling saga.

 

The cashed up couple who veiwed the weekend before last have been looking for 3 years and said ours ticked 90% of their boxes.

 

The following Monday they booked a second viewing...........on the Thursday they cancelled, saying they'd decided there wasn't enough grazing for their horses.

 

Since then, zero interest, still loads of new hits on the Rightmove page but no-one clicking thru'.

 

We have booked an appointment with a rep from English Country Cottages with a view to putting it on their books for short term rental whilst we wait for sales enquires to materialise.

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I genuinely suspect we are in for a long period of extraordinary wealth disparity. However, oligarchs don't generally buy at the top of the market, do they? I can't help thinking there'll be a wash out first.

 

why the hell not? it only costs them like a penny to print a twenty pound note.

 

so it's not like they're investing any of their own wealth into it; just what they've nicked via seigniorage.

 

if they buy a mansion for £50m with their freshly created money, it hasn't actually cost them anything.

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I've read that 60% of buyers in Central London are foriegn buyers.

 

What is clear is that there is sufficient demand to drive prices even higher

 

http://www.home.co.u...02&endyear=2013

 

OR...

They will wake up, and run away.

 

China Investment Corp., one of the world's largest sovereign-wealth funds with about $410 billion under management, bought Winchester House, which is leased by Deutsche Bank AG for its London headquarters, for about $400.6 million, according to Real Capital Analytics.

CIC has also invested in U.K. infrastructure, including small stakes in Heathrow Airport Holdings and water utility Thames Water.

Gingko Tree is wholly owned by a Singapore-registered company called the Investment Company of the People's Republic of China (Singapore), which in turn is wholly owned by SAFE

 

There are many restrictions now in buying property in HK, Singapore, and China.

So the wealth being generated on this side of the globe seems to like the UK at the moment

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Whilst i am learning all the time two contrarian calls made it for me with respect to UK house prices.

 

On the gold to house price ratio from goldfinger etc, all the bitchie in fighting that went on with this website where gold would go to £x thousand pounds during jan/feb 2011 thats was when I came out and bought property with gold.

 

When Dr Bubb left housepricecrash that was when I left sterling and bought more Uk property.

 

Now I am selling Uk property and am looking at farmland and buying ouside the uk AS IT IS TOO EXPENSIVE HERE.

 

For those still looking at Uk real estate there will be money to be made especially in London

Do not hold too much debt that you can not service big rise in interest rate coming within 2 years, Get out of sterling. My hedge is Canadian dollars.

Still hold some gold

For those looking to protect you family buy a house with a good back garden. In London tube Line connected 1930s type.

 

Finally get out of PAYE tax system

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When Dr Bubb left housepricecrash that was when I left sterling and bought more Uk property.

Now I am selling Uk property and am looking at farmland and buying ouside the uk AS IT IS TOO EXPENSIVE HERE.

You might have done better in HK property, but nevermind if you made money.

 

Have you looked into the US at all?

Having said that Sterling and the Dollar may so go into a race to the bottom (with some other currencies)

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Timely charts, Brother Dominic! Incredible disparity within the UK, N/S divide etc. Looking at the UK Longterm chart there it would suggest that house prices are sure to slide... Eventually...all the way to 50-60K...which would be just about the same as GF's chart forecast. NE and NW even look cheap at first sight. Still, that's forgetting that the whole area-save a few pockets- is rather undesireable.

Uk has proven to be a hard nut to crack but I think we'll see that little chestnut crack as time ticks on. (Paper house prices; a farce-inspired by reams of continuous paper printing)

Best to just keep chipping away month in month out with gold and silver.

 

(I'd like to see the London charts esp back to the early 80's or 70's).

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Do not hold too much debt that you can not service big rise in interest rate coming within 2 years

...

 

doubt mortgage rates will rise much. there is a finite number of state thugs (~80,000 polis) and thus a practical limit as to the rate at which debt serfs can be forced from their homes and kept out.

 

...

Get out of sterling. My hedge is Canadian dollars.

...

 

http://www.zerohedge...stest-pace-2009

Mark Carney Leaves Canada With 'Stealth QE' Rising At Fastest Pace Since 2009

 

...

20130128_BOC1_0.jpg

 

 

 

...

Finally get out of PAYE tax system

 

well TBTP chucked us off the land some 250 years ago, denying us access to most natural resources etc, so PAYE serfdom is the only option for most

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To touch on a topic I know DrBubb likes, I think a main driver has been the vast improvement in transport over the last five or so years. Leaving aside the mega-projects like King's Cross and Battersea Power Station/Nine Elms, there are new developments popping up all over the place, most noticeably along the southern rail corridor out of London Bridge down to the likes of Forest Hill. My hunch there is that's a lot to do with the much improved London Overground network, which has completely transformed metro services in that part of town. I think a lot of people have cashed in property in more central/northern suburbs and moved out a bit, knowing they're only a 20 minute journey from the City and/or Canary Wharf. The connections are fantastic, the service clean and frequent and the network is already at capacity at a mere five years old. Might be a smart move to start looking at the more grimy locales along the recently opened phase two link from Surrey Quays to Clapham Junction, or longer term perhaps the currently ATOC run services TfL has an eye on for conversion to Overground in the future - services to Tottenham Hale and out to Welwyn being examples.

 

Interestingly, and staying on the subject of rail, I recently did a comparison to see how far along the West Coast Main Line I'd need to go before my Watford studio flat (20 mins) became a two bed house - Northampton seemed to be the answer, at about an hour out of town. Got me thinking, as I'm getting to the position where my partner and I (currently living apart) are looking for a place. Having worked my parts off for twenty years (and still only 39), I'm wondering if it might be time to perhaps cash in on the London property effect, then stomach a train commute for another five years or so whilst working on a network of friends and a property we could sustain mortgage free by each working six months of the year. Food for thought indeed.

 

Anyway, slight derailment (ahem). As you were.

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My quick suggestion would be to look along the Crossrail line, where you may still find some bargains/

 

Or maybe at/near these two places, which are showing gentrification, but are still cheap (probably for a reason):

 

+ Manor House : http://www.greenener...showtopic=14291

 

+ Colindale : http://www.greenener...showtopic=17050

 

BTW, when you say:

" I recently did a comparison to see how far along the West Coast Main Line I'd need to go before my Watford studio flat (20 mins) became a two bed house"

 

I presume you mean: The value of the Studio was high enough to buy a 2BR House.

 

BTW, what is the value you are talking about?

If you post that, then some other folks here can give you some suggestions

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BTW, when you say:

" I recently did a comparison to see how far along the West Coast Main Line I'd need to go before my Watford studio flat (20 mins) became a two bed house"

 

I presume you mean: The value of the Studio was high enough to buy a 2BR House.

 

BTW, what is the value you are talking about?

If you post that, then some other folks here can give you some suggestions

 

Yep, that's what I meant - long day and frazzled brain! All fairly speculative at the moment, it was more simply wanting to see how much the commuting side of the equation would have to tip to bring the housing side into line with the present location. For guidance, I estimate my flat would currently go for £115k or thereabouts, and 2 beds out to Northampton were in or around that area. That was a very quick look and I don't know the area...they may all be on fire for all I know, it was just interesting to see how a one hour commute could have such an impact on quality of life. Northampton isn't exactly a backwater either. Nothing special, but it's a large urban centre and well connected, plus a university town, which generally keeps things interesting in any number of ways.

 

As for areas to look at in London - Elephant & Castle would be one IMO. About as desirable as herpes at present, but given the development of Bankside and the new towers in build / planned on Blackfriars road, I can see that stretch of the south bank being in-filled to join the gap between the developments at Vauxhall / Nine Elms and the swathe of appartments to the east of Tower Bridge out to Rotherhithe, Surrey Quays, Greenland Dock sort of direction. There's a big "landmark" development going up in Bermondsey just round the corner from where I do archery, plus of course you have the Shard and the redevelopment of the whole London Bridge area for the Thameslink project. No idea if it's sustainable and to be honest, I'm not looking to play the property speculation game (although have looked at REITs in passing), I'm just fascinated by the massive amount of regeneration going on south of the river. We are starting to see "Hong Kongfication" in various parts of town - high density mixed use, new public realm and mass transit as a feature. What was the quote about London? It'll be a great city when it's finished :)

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... you have the Shard and the redevelopment of the whole London Bridge area for the Thameslink project. No idea if it's sustainable and to be honest, I'm not looking to play the property speculation game (although have looked at REITs in passing), I'm just fascinated by the massive amount of regeneration going on south of the river. We are starting to see "Hong Kongfication" in various parts of town - high density mixed use, new public realm and mass transit as a feature. What was the quote about London? It'll be a great city when it's finished :)

 

Yes, that's an interesting shift.

The London Bridge area looks like it could be a real magnet for new money. I think that will become a more important part of London's future.

 

The_View_from_The__2268638b.jpg

 

It is usually a good idea to invest somewhere that will benefit from the millions and billions being poured into infrastructure. And there's big spending coming in that part of London.

 

The other areas I mentioned (Manor House and Colindale) are pure gentrification plays, rather than infrastructure-assisted property plays.

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Yes, that's an interesting shift.

It is usually a good idea to invest somewhere that will benefit from the millions and billions being poured into infrastructure. And there's big spending coming in that part of London.

 

It can take a while. Canary Wharf is great now but it took over 20 years for it to get that way. That's a long wait and it could easily have gone the other way.

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