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UK House prices: News & Views

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1/

So what do you think about his erm.. "solution"? :rolleyes: (''I'll put it back to full size text, in case it gets skipped over ;) )

Should we "pay attention to " this?

"We need a zero interest rate and a housing boom"

2/

He's a bankster FFS, he's gonna hate anyone that doesn't let them get all their own way, all the time.

 

He may be right, but did you notice what he said about time frames, and how the US tackled its crisis?

I think the "low rate solution" can only be introduced AFTER a big price slide, as in the US.

 

2/

BTW, he is a Hedge Fund founder, not a bankster

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BTW, he is a Hedge Fund founder, not a bankster

 

Different name, same attitude, same skimming off the top, member of the same "club" etc etc :rolleyes:

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Well it might be legal, but the recent Gov naming and shaming of corporations (and individuals) using immoral tax avoidance tricks is looking like it's yielding some results after all.

 

 

Global coffee chain Starbucks has said it is in talks with HM Revenue and Customs and the Treasury over how much UK tax it pays.

It is one of several well-known firms that were criticised over the level of their corporation tax payments.

The firm admitted that it "needed to do more" in the UK on tax.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20573208

 

 

Well I'll be :rolleyes:

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About the DataBoffin website

 

Over the past 5 years or so I've spent many hours building various datasets to help me with my investment and life decisions. These datasets have kept me away from purchasing a house plus have steered my investment allocations to equities, bonds, commercial property and gold.

 

A few days ago I discovered Google Drive and in particular how from Google Docs you can share charts which by hovering over reveal the data. With this functionality I've decided to share these datasets with others. I've built a very small website here which I've added the first half dozen or so datasets to. Over the coming weeks I'll add the remaining datasets that I track regularly.

 

- per HPC poster

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House prices fall across England and Wales

03/12/2012

House prices in the UK fell for the fifth consecutive month in November, dipping by an average of 0.1%, according to property analyst Hometrack.

Property values dropped in all UK regions, apart from East Anglia, with even the capital failing to be sheltered from a downward turn in the property market. If you are considering investing in property, you cancompare mortgages with MoneyExpert.

Central London saw the sharpest decline in property prices in November, falling by 1.2%, while a more marginal fall of 0.2% was recorded in Wales, the North East and Yorkshire and Humberside.

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- per HPC poster

 

... and GEI poster also :)

 

Updated the database to 11 datasets with 6 focused on UK house prices. That couldn't spur on any sort of discussion from a site called House Price Crash which once upon a time used to be a place where people had an interest in house prices.

 

Not sure if I'm going to bother with it TBH. Will probably give it a few weeks to see if interest develops from elsewhere. Between HPC, GEI and my own blog musings which analyse all of this data my future is turning out pretty rosy. It was just an experiment in trying to give something back but if there is no interest I might as well save myself the site hosting fees.

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Why not start a thread here, and post the occasional chart on it.

 

I like what you are doing with it

 

My own Property Diary gets, many hits, but few comments:

 

DrBubb's Property Diary : tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary

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Why not start a thread here, and post the occasional chart on it.

 

I like what you are doing with it

 

My own Property Diary gets, many hits, but few comments:

 

DrBubb's Property Diary : tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary

 

Thanks. The method I've chosen brings one big advantage. Each data point in the charts can be read by just hovering over the data point. Much better for sharing information.

 

I do already try and contribute to this site (and particularly this thread) whenever I have something interesting to say. Will take up the offer to contribute the odd chart also.

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Halifax House Price Index up 1.0%

 

6 December 2012 | 09:25am

StockMarketWire.com - UK house pricers rose by 1.0% in November, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index.

 

But prices are down by 1.3% over the year and 0.7% in the past three months.

 

Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis said: "There has been very little change in house prices overall during the past year with the average UK price in November almost identical to that in November 2011.

 

"Prices in the three months from September to November were 0.7% lower than in the preceding three months.

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QUOTE (DoctorSolar @ Oct 31 2010, 09:35 PM)

Despite wanting house prices to fall and understanding the arguments why it should happen I'm beginning to feel pretty doubtful it will actually happen to the extent discussed on here. I just don't see it falling 20% or more from here when priced in sterling. In other currencies/commodities sure.

 

Anyone care to have a wager on this?

 

If I lose the bet to you I just saved even more money off a property smile.gif

 

If I win the bet well I'll probably be even more upset than if I had lost!

 

Lets say the other person wins if by Dec 2012 or earlier the nationwide index falls by 20% or more from here.

 

Any takers? Just a modest sum of say 20-50pds or so?

 

 

I will take you up on that at £20, just for fun. If houses dont crash by that amount it will be because the currency has. So gold will be even heigher. I believe both houses will crash and the currency, but I'm easy...

 

Looks like I win the bet azazel :)

2 years has flown by!!

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so what next?

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Old Quote:

 

DrBubb, on May 24 2009, 03:11 AM, said:

 

I reckon that prices will fall from 35-50% from their Dead Cat Bounce high in the next few weeks,

to the Low in 2012-13.

== UNQUOTE ===

/see: http://www.housepric...ic=115350&st=30

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Old Quote:

 

DrBubb, on May 24 2009, 03:11 AM, said:

 

I reckon that prices will fall from 35-50% from their Dead Cat Bounce high in the next few weeks,

to the Low in 2012-13.

== UNQUOTE ===

/see: http://www.housepric...ic=115350&st=30

 

I sold to rent in .... oooohhh, let me think back .... right back at the beginning of the HPC site .... yes, that was it, I sold to rent in December 2003.

 

Just the straight NINE years ago. I really, REALLY can't believe where those 9 years have gone.

 

And, if I'm honest, I would say that the house I sold then would sell now, quite comfortably for 100k more than I sold it for, or, roughly, for 25% more.

 

I am willing to admit

  • I know nothing
  • My opinions count for nothing
  • In matters financial I am always wrong

How many others will attend the Truth and Reconciliation site - HPCwasAloadOfBolleaux.com

 

Edit: I did buy back in 2010 and, unbelievably, the house I bought has gone up by about 50k since then. But, as we all know, it's not real. None of it is.

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Edit: I did buy back in 2010 and, unbelievably, the house I bought has gone up by about 50k since then. But, as we all know, it's not real. None of it is.

 

or did sterling just go down?

 

have you managed to actually sell it for 50k more?

 

gold-house-price-index-uk-june-2012.png

sold to rent in .... oooohhh, let me think back .... right back at the beginning of the HPC site .... yes, that was it, I sold to rent in December 2003.

 

Just the straight NINE years ago. I really, REALLY can't believe where those 9 years have gone.

 

And, if I'm honest, I would say that the house I sold then would sell now, quite comfortably for 100k more than I sold it for, or, roughly, for 25% more.

 

25% more what?

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Me & mrs crashman bought as 1st time buyers

In 2011

 

Saw more QE on the horizon and knew prices would be stronger now.

We missed the 2008 bottom of this area by months.. That's how fast it recovered.

Bought at 2005/2006 prices.

 

Still have a position in bullionwhich will be used one day to pay off

Mortgage or for a buy to let ? Who knows ,

 

Bought at the bottom of a very desired wealthy area on west London

.i figured If you can't beat Em join em, & let them shelter you from negative equity.

 

Not bad for a curious 24 year old sheep who found HPC in 2004.

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Of course, it makes sense to Buy it prices are at least stable, in a time of ultra-low rates -

That's the whole point behind them: to INDUCE people to keep spending money & keep investing.

 

But if rates start rising, the world (and property vales) may change pretty fast.

 

I don't think that anyone knows exactly how long they will go on. Even the Fed can and will get hit

with unexpected shocks which may force them to change their rates policy.

 

The funny thing is: The longer LOW rates go on, the longer people tend to expect them to persist.

Where the reality is the opposite: the clock is surely running out, but I cannot say when.

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the clock is surely running out, but I cannot say when.

 

Well the markets have priced in interest rate rises in the US for 2017 and I cannot believe that Britain will raise before the US. Of course more than likely the UK will be in the early stages of a hyperinflation before then.

5 year fixed rates are now at 2.79 percent if posters on HPC are correct. (those poor sods have backed the losing horse and their ego will not allow them to admit that they are wrong). Oh, and SMI, the government paying peoples mortgages was extended for another two years until March 2015 in last week's budget. I am certain that it will not be extended just before the next election.

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2017?

Do you really think Ultra-low rates will last that long, StunLee?

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We are getting the Crash - But not in London (yet) - so be careful !

 

 

Old Quote: from End May 2009

 

"I reckon that prices will fall from 35-50% from their Dead Cat Bounce high in the next few weeks,

to the Low in 2012-13."

== UNQUOTE ===

/see: http://www.housepric...ic=115350&st=30

 

How accurate? What happened from June 2009 ?

 

Answers :

========

+ Hali-Wide had two major peaks : £192,490 (Aug. 2007), and then fell by 20.3% into a into Mar.2009 Low (£153,477). The second peak was £169,287 (Apr. 2010), and it has since fallen by just 4.3% into its recent low of £161,986 (Oct. 2012.) That is 15.8% below the cycle peak back in Aug. 2007. Further falls still look possible into 2013 and beyond.

 

restuk.jpg

 

+ The two peaks for the Rest of The UK were: £183,496 (Aug. 2007), and £160,582 (May 2010). The first low of £145,334 (Feb. 2009), was 20.8% below the 2007 Cycle peak. And the most recent low of £147,163 (Nov. 2012), was 19.8% below the Cycle peak of 2007. A fresh lower low looks very possible this winter and beyond.

 

+ Greater London prices, per Rightmove, are a very different story indeed. The Nov. 2012 price was £483,709, 17.2% above the Nov. 2007 peak of £412,731. From that first peak, prices fell just 8.1% to £379,162, over 9 months, before beginning their long 4 year plus climb to last month's peak.

 

abbaa.jpg

 

+ Relative prices have reached unprecedented levels. Greater London is now 298% of HaliWide prices and 329% of Rest-of-UK prices. The Nov. 2007 multiples were 218% and 231% respectively. Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap?

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or did sterling just go down?

 

have you managed to actually sell it for 50k more?

 

gold-house-price-index-uk-june-2012.png

 

 

25% more what?

 

Regarding sterling - I don't care about sterling. I sold a house and got paid in pounds. I stuck the money in an English bank and, 7 years later, bought another house in pounds. Whether sterling went up or down against gold does not interest me at all and I don't see it as a useful way to measure house prices.

 

No, I haven't actually managed to sell it for more.

 

The house next door (on an estate, identical) has just sold (7 days on the market) for 75k more than I paid for mine. (And, yes, actually sold - we have new neightbours) I've spent 20k on kitchen, bathrooms, carpets and flooring so I reckon 50k is a fair figure. (Don't get me wrong, I'm not happy about this - for the sake of my children - but the point I was making was that there has been enough HPC hot air over the last 10 years to power the economy for decades).

 

And, when you ask '25% more what?' - 25% more than I sold up for in 2003.

 

Quite how it worked out I don't know, but with the interest earned on the money while it was in the bank (back in 2003/4/5/6/7 the interest paid the rent and more besides - so, somehow, the money in the bank started building up) and the fact that I bought our present house cheap (it needed doing up and, 2 years ago, the market was still recovering from the 2008 shock) - I seem to be about 50k better off than I would have been if I'd stayed put. Lot of fluff in the figures though - I've had a few good years at work too.

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