UK House prices: News & Views

[LauraB]

 

/more: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/decline-uk-house-price-eases-february-rics-034238038.html

 

, but surveyors also said much of the rise in sentiment was more durable, their professional body said

 

One is lost for words.

[John Doe]

One is lost for words.

 

Oh I don't know.

 

The atmosphere (general feelings of friends/family and colleagues etc) from Autumn to xmas was miserable in the extreme. Even all those that call me Dr Doom were looking glum and saying the end was nigh. Confidence hit new lows.

 

However, since xmas, there has been a vast improvement in sentiment (obviously still not great, but nowhere near as bad as before xmas).

 

Looking around where I work, we have lost 20 people out of ~100 in our Dept. (All voluntary thankfully) and that's the cuts done for us (actually got a bigger saving than originally planned, so jobs are safe(ish) again, and that has helped sentiment a bit also).

 

Confidence is key, and if the public can be fooled into thinking everything is going to be fine, then confidence returns and it becomes self fulfilling.

 

And yes, before the insults fly, I do know the system is ultimately fu**ed, but I dont think its going to collapse just yet.

 

PS Just saw the Telegraphs take on it

 

House prices fall at 'slowest rate'

 

Amazing

 

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-fall-slowest-rate-062608229.html

[signofthetimes]

expectations 'jumped to zero'

[Manual labourer]

Decline in UK house price eases in February - RICS

 

LONDON (Reuters) - British house prices fell at their slowest pace since July 2010 last month, and surveyors expect prices to stabilise in the coming months as the economic outlook brightens, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said on Tuesday. The value of British houses fell sharply at the start of the financial crisis and has been generally stagnant since then, with transaction volumes about half that before the crisis due to a lack of mortgage finance and uncertainty over jobs.

...

 

/more: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/decline-uk-house-price-eases-february-rics-034238038.html

 

Surveyors' expectations for house prices over the coming three months jumped to zero from -14, the highest reading since May 2010.

 

This is partly due to first-time buyers seeking to take advantage of a tax break on home purchases before it expires on March 24, but surveyors also said much of the rise in sentiment was more durable, their professional body said

 

 

My counter trend indicator says this could be a very good signal for price drops until 2014!

 

Although I posted on here a few months ago my Redrow director contact is saying they are booming!

 

Without a serious interest rate rise I can't see big drops in sterling house prices!

 

Maybe the only hope is qe,3,4 due to comming liquidity banking crisis, rising inflation as a result leading to a rise in rates to chase rising strong inflation, negative real interest rates therefore to increase as interest rates lag inflation therefore leads to increase in price of gold as inflation hedge, house prices decline due to interest rates rising? Double wammy on price of houses in gold

 

 

 

What are the barret shares indicating DB.

 

Regards

 

ML

[LauraB]

expectations 'jumped to zero'

 

Beyond belief. One assumes the landing will never happen?

 

Message to JD: My comment "One is lost for words" referred to the pigeon english of the article & not to an interest in the property 'values' of Lower Trumpton.

[John Doe]

Beyond belief. One assumes the landing will never happen?

 

Message to JD: My comment "One is lost for words" referred to the pigeon english of the article & not to an interest in the property 'values' of Lower Trumpton.

 

Ah right, oops

 

My counter trend indicator says this could be a very good signal for price drops until 2014!

 

Although I posted on here a few months ago my Redrow director contact is saying they are booming!

 

Without a serious interest rate rise I can't see big drops in sterling house prices!

 

Maybe the only hope is qe,3,4 due to comming liquidity banking crisis, rising inflation as a result leading to a rise in rates to chase rising strong inflation, negative real interest rates therefore to increase as interest rates lag inflation therefore leads to increase in price of gold as inflation hedge, house prices decline due to interest rates rising? Double wammy on price of houses in gold

 

 

 

What are the barret shares indicating DB.

 

Regards

 

ML

 

BDEV still rising

 

149 today

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BDEV.L

[sash777]

Interesting article from an (ex) Goldman Sachs employee in today's NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html?_r=3&hp

[drbubb]

In response to:

Can I ask which area? (that the rents have been raised so much)

Would you consider moving? There might be some bargains out there.

 

BTW, some property prices might drop after the Stamp Tax holiday expires

 

Richmond/Sheen approximately. Not exactly the cheapest of places. Will be moving to a more peaceful area but wont ever be renting again. Hopefully we'll be thanking this greedy landlord eventually for pushing our hand and at least I'll have a new goal in life - Paying off the mortgage. Stamp duty holiday expiring wont have any effect unfortunately. You don't get much under 250k here these days and the only bargains I've seen have been for sale by auction. Need to be a cash buyer to take advantage of that I think.

 

(note : Can we continue this on the Main Property thread? - DrB )

 

I know that RENTS were being pushed higher by the "Olympic effect" near the City.

Probably not in Sheen

[BoldAsBrass]

By way of an aside, anyone know when HPC celebrates its 10th anniversary? I first joined, I think, in Autumn 2003 and it had been going for a while then. Did it start in 2002?

 

Is there anyone posting there who was in at the beginning?

 

I'm not allowed there anymore and, to be honest, usernames seem to escape me. I had some good dialogue with Durch a few times but the others I have forgotten.

 

I'm just wondering if anyone has been posting there now who is, essentially, still predicting a crash 10 years after they first predicted the crash.

[drbubb]

Is there anyone posting there who was in at the beginning?

 

I'm not allowed there anymore and, to be honest, usernames seem to escape me. I had some good dialogue with Durch a few times but the others I have forgotten.

 

I'm just wondering if anyone has been posting there now who is, essentially, still predicting a crash 10 years after they first predicted the crash.

I was there when...

 

HPC shifted from being a free-hosted service, to having its own Invision Board.

 

I predict a Crash in 2004, and realised I was early a few months later.

 

Then predictedit again in July 2007, just one month or so early.

 

We got one, but it hardly touched London, for various reasons. I do not think you can rule one out now

[John Doe]

Big moves in US yields.

 

As I said, sentiment is improving (albeit from utter, absolute doom) and although it's going to be a long slog, the worst of this part of the crisis, might just be over..... for now.

 

Treasury yields jump most since October

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-fall-more-yields-hit-4-month-highs-2012-03-14?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

 

Of course, if it really is, then that means (over time) yields will continue to rise = rates rising = next phase of the crisis can begin!

[Van]

I think I may be the longest HPC-follower here - my interest in the topic started back in 2002 when HPC didn't yet exist and it was still a forum on the FT.com website.

In hindsight I would not have STR but would have found some other way to hedge myself; shorting housebuilders using strict TA would have been one of the trades of the decade when the broke long trend support.

 

Unfortunately HPC as it is now serves no useful purpose and resembles a bad advfn board.

 

IMO we are 2/3 of the way through the UK housing crash in terms of real falls, however no more than 1/2 way through it in terms of time. The last 1/3 of the falls will be a long and drawn out affair as the economy is kept on ZIRP life support for many years yet. Lost decade? You betcha.

[John Doe]

Very interesting analysis from BoE's Broadbent.

 

Flanders does a bit on it too.

 

The Truth About UK Debt.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17398014

 

Why did we have a financial crisis? And why has the recovery been so slow?

 

Ask any normal person these questions, they would probably blame the banks. But then world-weary "experts" - policy makers and commentators - would usually step forward, to put them straight.

 

"The banks made mistakes", these wise heads will say, "but really it's all our fault, for running up so much debt. We all had a binge, and now we have to pay."

 

It's an excellent morality tale, which chimes well with the British tendency towards self-flagellation.

 

There's just one problem. It's not really true.

 

And what's this? Has Marceau had a change of heart? (and name?)

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=176479&view=findpost&p=3287693

 

:lol:

[drbubb]

Very interesting analysis from BoE's Broadbent.

 

Flanders does a bit on it too.

I really like this chart !

 

 

It suggests that UK Household debt is not as much as a problem as some think it is.

The UK can sustain some falls in house prices, and stay in positive equity.

[Van]

The answer why the "recovery" is slow is simple yet unpleasant because nobody wants to hear it:

 

As in 1992 and 2001, the recession of 2008-09 was not allowed to run its full course. Therefore the massive and unsustainable imbalances in the economy are still present, still being propped up, and they are preventing efficient allocation of resources. The global economy will continue along a path of long term wealth destruction as long as the short term pain is continually avoided by monetary and fiscal policies.

[Van]

"That's consistent with the idea that rising house prices caused bigger mortgages - not the other way around. According to Broadbent, there isn't even much evidence that "mortgage withdrawal" - loans taken out on the basis of rising property values, were used to fund extra consumption."

Sorry, I can't take this article seriously with stupid statements like that. Broadbent obviously lives in a macro-economic Keynesian model and rather than in the real world.

[Manual labourer]

I really like this chart !

 

 

It suggests that UK Household debt is not the problem that some think it is.

The UK can sustain some falls in house prices, and stay in positive equity.

 

 

 

 

 

On the road I live on out of 8 houses 6 are debt free ok we are all getting on a little bit most have lived here 20years plus, nobody cares about house prices it only matters if you want to move!

 

With the tax now put on houses above 250 and 500k why move and risk many k and maybe not like it!

 

New build are booming a friend started a build of 48 detached houses with a group of ten social houses he built the social houses first and had sold them to a housing trust before the foundations were finished, he then built the next in lots of 6 at a time as he sold six he built six more, I told him I thought he was nuts 2yrs ago just before he put the first spade in the ground, he is on his last six now with three pre sold !

 

 

It was his first build of this size and he is currently trying to buy two more sites!

 

The sooner people realize the state will do anything ie ultra low interest rates to keep the banks and borrowers happy

and will continue to shaft savers and the retired frugal people the better!

 

I just wish we had all followed Cantona and withdrawn savings until rates went up!

 

Another Guy I know is 40-50K a year better off in reduced payments on his btl loans than he was 2007 as rates fell on his borrowings he is virtually full and getting higher rents!

 

You have to hand it to the BOE they have played a blinder over the lst few years in looking after borrowers!

 

 

Remember borrowers on loan books equal bankers profits as long as the assets retain value!

 

Next we will get 50 year property loans!

 

Regards

 

ML

[John Doe]

The answer why the "recovery" is slow is simple yet unpleasant because nobody wants to hear it:

 

As in 1992 and 2001, the recession of 2008-09 was not allowed to run its full course. Therefore the massive and unsustainable imbalances in the economy are still present, still being propped up, and they are preventing efficient allocation of resources. The global economy will continue along a path of long term wealth destruction as long as the short term pain is continually avoided by monetary and fiscal policies.

 

Agree on 1992 and esp 2001, but if they'd let this one run on it's own (due in a good part to the previous ones being smoothed over), I think it could have been the most catastrophic and self spiralling depression of all time.

 

Indeed, it could have made the 30’s look pale in comparison, going far deeper than necessary to remove imbalances, with a massive overshoot on the downside.

 

I really think it could have been that bad.

[John Doe]

You have to hand it to the BOE they have played a blinder over the lst few years in looking after borrowers!

 

 

Remember borrowers on loan books equal bankers profits as long as the assets retain value!

 

Next we will get 50 year property loans!

 

Regards

 

ML

 

Yep, I know a couple of builders that are doing very well at the moment, because (so they tell me) they didn't need big loans back in 2009 and bought up plots no-one was lending on.

 

One even came out of early retirement (he was on country house rescue once) as the deals were so good! (on the plots and the labour costs, which he reckoned had halved, so he didn’t give a s**t about selling 20% less than peak if he had to).

 

Others I know have had a miserable couple of years, but, then again, they didn't have the cashflow.

 

I guess one man’s recession really is another’s opportunity

[John Doe]

I think I may be the longest HPC-follower here - my interest in the topic started back in 2002 when HPC didn't yet exist and it was still a forum on the FT.com website.

In hindsight I would not have STR but would have found some other way to hedge myself; shorting housebuilders using strict TA would have been one of the trades of the decade when the broke long trend support.

 

Early 2003, after I watched an interview with a prof from Warwick (can't remember his name now) on BBC.

 

But we had just sold a house for ~ 60% more than we'd paid for it 18 months before and I though then, something just ain't right here.

 

Since then we've STR'd twice

[drbubb]

[drbubb]

IS THIS THE TIME to sell in London, and move to the country ??

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cYi0lNmuu0

 

Violence in major cities (London, NYC, LA) is the "logical end point."

 

We have been "marinated in stimulus":

 

+ One-fifth of households in the UK have only people who do not work

+ One-tenth of adults in the UK have NEVER WORKED, since Tony Blair took office

 

/see thread- Where to be, and NOT, in a Collapse:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16113

[Manual labourer]

Yep, I know a couple of builders that are doing very well at the moment, because (so they tell me) they didn't need big loans back in 2009 and bought up plots no-one was lending on.

 

One even came out of early retirement (he was on country house rescue once) as the deals were so good! (on the plots and the labour costs, which he reckoned had halved, so he didn’t give a s**t about selling 20% less than peak if he had to).

 

Others I know have had a miserable couple of years, but, then again, they didn't have the cashflow.

 

I guess one man’s recession really is another’s opportunity

 

 

Yes this was his first large development he had no debt bought the land from a much larger developer and hasn't looked back!

 

The profit margins have been very good due to the seller needed to "shut" the land to get debt down!

 

I can't see house prices going down in sterling terms AND AM BECOMING MORE BEARISH on prices in gold by the day.

 

Maybe that is a good contrary sign!

 

Regards

[John Doe]

House prices record biggest 'spring bounce' in six years

 

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-record-biggest-spring-075111202.html;_ylt=ArHkROgJz20eBFRkT8y0uqTSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTNzbjFhOWZrBG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgUmlnaHQEcGtnAzA0ZTRkOGM1LTAxMDAtM2JlOS05ZWYwLTQzYjM2M2ExMjFmYQRwb3MDNQRzZWMDdG9wX3N0b3J5BHZlcgM0MWE2YTIwMC03MTk5LTExZTEtYmNlMy1kYmQxMzQ4MTUzMDA-;_ylg=X3oDMTFvZzY4MG5jBGludGwDZ2IEbGFuZwNlbi1nYgRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

 

Actually, that's the Telegraph mistaking asking prices for sale prices again.

 

It's the Rightmove data, (which I say again is bo**ocks) that some used to suggest crash cruise speed not so long ago

 

Hehe

 

 

(Of course, while RM figures are meaningless, the big change around does chime with my views about sentiment. Dire last autumn to xmas, vast improvement (though still not great) since xmas)

[Van]

On the road I live on out of 8 houses 6 are debt free ok we are all getting on a little bit most have lived here 20years plus, nobody cares about house prices it only matters if you want to move!

 

That's a bit of a narrow-minded biew.

 

What happens when these families' children want to buy their own homes and start their own families? They won't be able to afford a home, or if they do it'll likely be a 1br shoebox that they'll be tied to for years.

 

High house prices prevents all sorts of social mobility. The NINJAs become trapped and stay at home into their 30s and beyond. It's a crap state of affairs that impoverishes the young.