G0ldfinger Posted January 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2012 As for Tata, with orders growing at 30% YoY, I don't think there is any problem with them opening plant in India, it's common sense. Tatas and crude oil is a little like electronics and silver, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geisaver Posted January 8, 2012 Report Share Posted January 8, 2012 Oh, and by the way, the Tata deal for land rover jaguar was done under the Labour gov, not camerons Conlib I never said it wasn't Labour. The Nest/Tata deal I mentioned was rushed through a month after Cameron signed up Ratan Tata as an advisor. Re cars let's hope we don't have another Rover scenario where management just syphon off loads of taxpayers cash for a short term jobs gain. Hamish you are back on block now, your earlier post was only seen by accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borassic Posted January 8, 2012 Report Share Posted January 8, 2012 "Been chatting with many old friends/colleagues from all over the UK (both rich and poor) over the break. Guess what, they aren't as near as gloomy as they were last year" JD - the insane amount of debt creation is having a marginal effect on jobs/orders/slowing the house price crash. We ain't seen nothing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 8, 2012 Report Share Posted January 8, 2012 Re cars let's hope we don't have another Rover scenario where management just syphon off loads of taxpayers cash for a short term jobs gain. Tata is huge, like Sumitomo or Hyundai (and hell they make/sell everything from soap to tv’s to oil tankers). One part of it is investing heavily in the UK. A totally different part has signed up this NEST deal. AFAIR, Tata were the only company that didn’t pull out of the bidding for that particular contract after the Gov didn’t stump up enough to entice the UK firms (amongst others) to continue bidding. Seems to have saved the country a good few quid by all accounts. The gang of 4 deal (labour) for rover was only trumped by the Chinese taking the company for peanuts (again, resulting from a labour deal, but this time to save the midlands vote just before an election, backed up with huge tax payer cash injection) The Chinese quickly shut it down taking the lucrative engine tech etc with them to china. Of course, there is a lovely shopping centre on the site now. Tata has not done this, indeed, amongst other investments,it has just announced a new engine plant. The two are opposite, which was my point. Hamish! V.Funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 8, 2012 Report Share Posted January 8, 2012 "Been chatting with many old friends/colleagues from all over the UK (both rich and poor) over the break. Guess what, they aren't as near as gloomy as they were last year" JD - the insane amount of debt creation is having a marginal effect on jobs/orders/slowing the house price crash. We ain't seen nothing yet. Possibly. It could all blow up. I was just pointing out that the people I spoke with seem to have understood that this level of growth and credit availability is the new norm, and are actually managing their expectations accordingly. This time last year, they all thought it was the end of the world. I just don't see the end of the world. As soon as the ECB prints, the crisis stage will be over, and the slow grind of deleverage can resume its course along with muted growth for several years, which is what was generally happening from 2009 (until the EU politicians screwed up with their indecision and power playing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted January 8, 2012 Report Share Posted January 8, 2012 Possibly. It could all blow up. I was just pointing out that the people I spoke with seem to have understood that this level of growth and credit availability is the new norm, and are actually managing their expectations accordingly. This time last year, they all thought it was the end of the world. If they think that then they quite clearly still don't understand anything. I just don't see the end of the world. As soon as the ECB prints, the crisis stage will be over, and the slow grind of deleverage can resume its course along with muted growth for several years, which is what was generally happening from 2009 (until the EU politicians screwed up with their indecision and power playing). The slow grind is the least likely outcome. Even in the most flexible indebted economies this option is the equivalent of walking a tightrope over a 1000ft drop with a faulty balancing pole, where the weight at each end of the pole keeps changing randomly and dramatically without warning. Oh, and the tightrope will take 25 years to cross. A generation of low growth is the BEST we can hope for and credit availability still has a long way to fall IMO. How far? Look at the South American credit systems and weep. We're going exactly the same way for almost exactly the same reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 8, 2012 Report Share Posted January 8, 2012 If they think that then they quite clearly still don't understand anything. Ignorance is bliss marceau Besides, they are happy, they "stupidly" borrowed loads back in 2003 to buy (what I told them was) overpriced houses that were about to crash in value. Then they "stupidly" went on to trackers when I told them rates were going to rise in 2006/7. Yep, two actually get paid by the building society as we speak for those "stupid" deals. Boy, what idiots. (Yes of course they were lucky, but there you go) The slow grind is the least likely outcome. Even in the most flexible indebted economies this option is the equivalent of walking a tightrope over a 1000ft drop with a faulty balancing pole, where the weight at each end of the pole keeps changing randomly and dramatically without warning. Oh, and the tightrope will take 25 years to cross. A generation of low growth is the BEST we can hope for and credit availability still has a long way to fall IMO. How far? Look at the South American credit systems and weep. We're going exactly the same way for almost exactly the same reasons. We'll see. As I've said before, for decades I've read & heard about all the impending end of the system prophecies etc, and yes, I have understood all the arguments and reasons why people kept saying it and predicting it. I've even made major decisions based upon it, sometimes helpful, sometimes not. Yet, here we are decades later, still bumbling along. Heard it in the 50's, 60's (from those older than me), heard it myself in the 70's, the 80's the 90's the naughties, and now in the teens. There have always been problems, and probably always will be, but heh ho, here we are. And granted, they seem pretty big at present, but not unsolvable given the right choices and leadership (if/when it comes). Besides, wasn't everyone here telling me 2011 would be the end game? Massive house price falls, 3.5m unemployed (even on the fiddled figures). Didn’t happen. Indeed, if the EU hadn’t pi**ed about so much, the great slow recovery would still be continuing (just like it is in the US, even with all the potential problems). The world has an uncanny knack for managing to walk that tightrope. It's been doing it for a long time now. And yes, one day a fall will probably come, and what will happen then? Yep, worldwide co-ordinated printing and debt jubilees, enabling a parachute for those in the know to land safely, and for the rest of us perhaps a bit of a bump. System reboot, here we go again. Until then, the best we can do is enjoy the view and prepare the best we can in case the worst happens, withought stoping living, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted January 8, 2012 Report Share Posted January 8, 2012 Ignorance is bliss marceau Besides, they are happy, they "stupidly" borrowed loads back in 2003 to buy (what I told them was) overpriced houses that were about to crash in value. Then they "stupidly" went on to trackers when I told them rates were going to rise in 2006/7. Yep, two actually get paid by the building society as we speak for those "stupid" deals. Boy, what idiots. (Yes of course they were lucky, but there you go) They were not lucky, they followed the advice of those who managed the bailouts. They won a rigged game without any comprehension of the deeper risk of playing in a crooked system. When those who manage the bailouts fail, so will your 'lucky' friends. They have lashed themselves to the mast of rotten ship. We'll see. As I've said before, for decades I've read & heard about all the impending end of the system prophecies etc, and yes, I have understood all the arguments and reasons why people kept saying it and predicting it. I've even made major decisions based upon it, sometimes helpful, sometimes not. Yet, here we are decades later, still bumbling along. Heard it in the 50's, 60's (from those older than me), heard it myself in the 70's, the 80's the 90's the naughties, and now in the teens. There have always been problems, and probably always will be, but heh ho, here we are. And granted, they seem pretty big at present, but not unsolvable given the right choices and leadership (if/when it comes). Besides, wasn't everyone here telling me 2011 would be the end game? Massive house price falls, 3.5m unemployed (even on the fiddled figures). Didn’t happen. Indeed, if the EU hadn’t pi**ed about so much, the great slow recovery would still be continuing (just like it is in the US, even with all the potential problems). Normalcy bias. The world has an uncanny knack for managing to walk that tightrope. It's been doing it for a long time now. And yes, one day a fall will probably come, and what will happen then? Yep, worldwide co-ordinated printing and debt jubilees, enabling a parachute for those in the know to land safely, and for the rest of us perhaps a bit of a bump. System reboot, here we go again. Until then, the best we can do is enjoy the view and prepare the best we can in case the worst happens, withought stoping living, yes? I don't recall anyone on this board killing themselves or living in nuclear shelters, most here appear to run businesses. Despite increasingly an increasingly hostile and barren environment, 2011 was the most profitable year of my life so far, I'm not giving up, I intend to prosper. Do not confuse pragmatism with nihilism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 8, 2012 Report Share Posted January 8, 2012 They were not lucky, they followed the advice of those who managed the bailouts. They won a rigged game without any comprehension of the deeper risk of playing in a crooked system. When those who manage the bailouts fail, so will your 'lucky' friends. They have lashed themselves to the mast of rotten ship. Yeah, and with their overpayments they're practically mortgage free. Go figure. If they had researched the economic situation of the world back then (especially the state of the UK and it’s housing market etc, the would have seen that there were huge imbalances, two massively expensive wars being waged by overindebted countries, ultra low rates and recession in US and EU etc etc and, having acted accordingly, they would not have bought at that time. If then the PTB had then not continued to prop up the system (several times in the past decade alone) then they would have been in big trouble. Now they are sat practically mortgage free while rents are rising and incomes are falling for many of those that acted more prudently. So actually, yes, they were very lucky. Normalcy bias. It is what it is. I don't recall anyone on this board killing themselves or living in nuclear shelters, most here appear to run businesses. Despite increasingly an increasingly hostile and barren environment, 2011 was the most profitable year of my life so far, I'm not giving up, I intend to prosper. Do not confuse pragmatism with nihilism. Woah blood! I never said they did. (and I certainly wasn't referring to anyone here) All I meant was people can spend too much time worrying about things that might never happen (I know several myself). Be concerned yes, have contingencies yes, but don't let it spoil your life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 8, 2012 Report Share Posted January 8, 2012 More W.End / London safe haven talk. Now it seems commercial property too! Will wonders ever cease? http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/west-end-city-become-safe-191612007.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 9, 2012 Report Share Posted January 9, 2012 More W.End / London safe haven talk. Now it seems commercial property too! Will wonders ever cease? http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/west-end-city-become-safe-191612007.html Mike Harris thinks the Pound Sterling will collapse within 2012 /see: Fringe Diary Dollar index /more charts: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2012/01/06/Risk_On_Dollar_Down_Right_So_What_Happened_with_NFPs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 9, 2012 Report Share Posted January 9, 2012 Mike Harris thinks the Pound Sterling will collapse within 2012 /see: Fringe Diary Others think it will be a good year for the pound. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11360712/1/euro-lags-behind-ahead-of-2012-sterling-may-play-safe-haven-role.html Yep, the "pound could rebound" in 2012 http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pound-could-rebound-2012-090000771.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2012 Houses in gold have had a little dead cat bounce. I expect them to drop substantially again in 2012. http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 9, 2012 Report Share Posted January 9, 2012 Houses in gold have had a little dead cat bounce. I expect them to drop substantially again in 2012. Perhaps when that ECB press starts printing (officially) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 9, 2012 Report Share Posted January 9, 2012 Talking of UK car production, Rolls Royce expanding UK operation too now! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16440548 Come on blighty! That's the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted January 9, 2012 Report Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think that these two articles some up the UK property situation time bomb... http://www.home.co.uk/guides/news/story.htm?one_million_desperate_households_resort_to_payday_loans_to_cover_the_rent_or_mortgage http://www.home.co.uk/guides/news/story.htm?pressure_builds_on_uk_banks_to_pass_on_property_loans_gone_bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 9, 2012 Report Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think that these two articles some up the UK property situation time bomb... http://www.home.co.uk/guides/news/story.htm?one_million_desperate_households_resort_to_payday_loans_to_cover_the_rent_or_mortgage http://www.home.co.uk/guides/news/story.htm?pressure_builds_on_uk_banks_to_pass_on_property_loans_gone_bad Nah, there have always been several 100's of 1000's using credit cards and payday loans etc for paying the mortgage (even back in the "good?" old days), and the second report is commercial property. No bombs, just a slow slow grind down, as normal, unless a major shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 10, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2012 10/10 for this plunge, and it continues. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-09/abu-dhabi-may-reach-for-checkbook-again-after-aldar-s-9-8-billion-bailout.html Abu Dhabi May Rescue More Developers ... Real-estate values have fallen more than 60 percent in Dubai and 45 percent in Abu Dhabi from 2008 peaks after the global credit crisis caused banks to curtail lending and speculators left the market. Developers completing contracts are supplying thousands of homes and offices at a time when demand is dropping. ... Kamal said residential values are likely to drop another 10 percent to 15 percent as 20,000 homes are completed in Abu Dhabi and another 25,000 in Dubai. He said a similar number of properties is scheduled for completion in both markets in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKline Posted January 10, 2012 Report Share Posted January 10, 2012 Besides, wasn't everyone here telling me 2011 would be the end game? Massive house price falls, 3.5m unemployed (even on the fiddled figures). Didn’t happen. Indeed, if the EU hadn’t pi**ed about so much, the great slow recovery would still be continuing (just like it is in the US, even with all the potential problems). Yes but the global economy is hardly a bed of roses and there could be substantial falls to come. I've been thinking of ways to short the housing market and short the economy in general. In other words, make money from the crash, instead of losing money. Some ideas here..... Shorting the Housing Market - How To Make Money From A Property Crash Shorting banks, developers, LPTs would be a start. Pity there's no housing derivative index that could be shorted directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 10, 2012 Report Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yes but the global economy is hardly a bed of roses and there could be substantial falls to come. I've been thinking of ways to short the housing market and short the economy in general. In other words, make money from the crash, instead of losing money. Some ideas here..... Shorting the Housing Market - How To Make Money From A Property Crash Shorting banks, developers, LPTs would be a start. Pity there's no housing derivative index that could be shorted directly. I agree, but still think a major shock will be needed here for a quick crash. Australia (I think that link refers to) AFAIR has one of the most overpriced housing markets in the world. UK in real terms has seen a good ~33% fall from peak already (and a lot more in most places, which is offset by London and nice properties in nice areas) One of the spreadbet companies in the UK used to let you short the housing market. Can't remember which one. Also RBS was going to offer some deriv type shorting opps at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2012 Waahh, people will now have to prove that they can actually pay back their mortgages!!! Can you believe that???!!!?? I think the U.K. housing market is doomed. One can only hope that they use ridiculously and unrealistically low interest rates when they do these kind of checks. Oh, I am sure they will. Thanks Merv. http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/homeowners-trapped-as-lenders-claw-back-cheap-loans/a556129?re=17356&ea=271779&utm_source=BulkEmail_Money_Daily&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Money_Daily&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Money_Daily Homeowners trapped as lenders claw back cheap loans Mortgage lenders are refusing to transfer existing loans to new properties and imposing swingeing early repayment penalties, warns Lorna Bourke. ... An estimated million homebuyers who raised mortgages under self-certified lending criteria may no longer qualify for the loan they already have – even if they can clearly afford it because they have never defaulted. Similarly, an estimated million or more are trapped because their financial circumstances, or the lenders’ affordability criteria, have changed. For example, homebuyers with 'interest-only' loans now have to prove that they could afford a full repayment mortgage. So, according to this, you can clearly afford your mortgage even if you only haven't defaulted because you're on a tracker during ZIRP. "Pay back? What do you mean by `pay back'?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 11, 2012 Report Share Posted January 11, 2012 Waahh, people will now have to prove that they can actually pay back their mortgages!!! Can you believe that???!!!?? No need to worry, people are now paying to lend money to the UK too! Investors pay to lend money to UK http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-pay-lend-money-uk-064405146.html these 35-year gilts sold with a rate of -0.116pc So now we can get mortgages where people pay us to have them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harold bishop Posted January 11, 2012 Report Share Posted January 11, 2012 As I painfully know, the associated cost buying a house in the UK is very expensive. 4 % stamp duty is pretty normal. Add on legals, searches and removals can easily tot up to £30k for a pretty mundane family home in the south east. Just buying a house of the same value will increase the LTV, since, most buyers think they can just stick these costs on the mortgage. That game is over in a falling market. Another reason why mortgage holders are trapped and will have to sit things out. But of course the biggie is that LTVs only go up in a falling market. Absolute certainty for interest only loans and probably for many repayment loans as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 12, 2012 Report Share Posted January 12, 2012 So how's the old barometer BDEV looking? Oh, up 10% to 107 at one point! Hmm, what can it mean? http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BDEV.L Just kidding, perhaps it tallies with 50's short sharp bounce this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 13, 2012 Report Share Posted January 13, 2012 Waahh, people will now have to prove that they can actually pay back their mortgages!!! Can you believe that???!!!?? I think the U.K. housing market is doomed. One can only hope that they use ridiculously and unrealistically low interest rates when they do these kind of checks. Oh, I am sure they will. Thanks Merv. "Homeowners trapped as lenders claw back cheap loans Mortgage lenders are refusing to transfer existing loans to new properties and imposing swingeing early repayment penalties, warns Lorna Bourke." http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/homeowners-trapped-as-lenders-claw-back-cheap-loans/a556129?re=17356&ea=271779&utm_source=BulkEmail_Money_Daily&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Money_Daily&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Money_Daily Cut The Bullsh/t ! That's the message in these changes. Unfortunately, Hype and Bullsh/t has been sustaining the UK property market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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