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UK House prices: News & Views

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Two reports released today. The Nationwide says prices are down in December but up 1 percent on the year.

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Dec_2011.pdf

 

Meanwhile the Land Registry says prices are up 0.3 percent in November.

 

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/upload/documents/HPI_Report_Nov_11_ws13pm4.pdf

 

 

And, barring a sudden rise in interest rates, this is how it will continue for years.

 

Agreed, mean time prices become acceptable/expected !!

 

Banks don't have to take huge hits on mortgaged properties they hold!

 

The only way to beat this is invest in gold/oil which slowly appreciates with ups and downs against Houses. Cash is the worst place to be!

 

The only time I can see interest rates going up is when the vast majority have moved from fixed rate mortgage deals to short sighted percived wisdom of cheaper vairiable deals.

 

 

 

Regards

 

ML

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PRAYTELL: What is wrong with that ??

(Don't you hate those unintelligent headlines ?)

 

Guardian: Housing benefit cuts will put 800,000 homes out of reach, according to study

 

"A further 800,000 homes will be put out of reach of people on housing benefit because of government welfare cuts – leaving low income families the choice of cutting spending on food to pay the rent or moving out. The Chartered Institute of Housing has found there will be thousands more claimants than properties that are affordable on benefits alone, raising the possibility that the poor will migrate to "benefit ghettoes" in seaside towns or the north of England"

/see:

=== ===

 

Result:

More flats available for those who apy their own way, with lower rents and and lower home prices.

Just what the Dr ordered !

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PRAYTELL: What is wrong with that ??

(Don't you hate those unintelligent headlines ?)

 

Guardian: Housing benefit cuts will put 800,000 homes out of reach, according to study

 

"A further 800,000 homes will be put out of reach of people on housing benefit because of government welfare cuts – leaving low income families the choice of cutting spending on food to pay the rent or moving out. The Chartered Institute of Housing has found there will be thousands more claimants than properties that are affordable on benefits alone, raising the possibility that the poor will migrate to "benefit ghettoes" in seaside towns or the north of England"

/see:

=== ===

 

Result:

More flats available for those who apy their own way, with lower rents and and lower home prices.

Just what the Dr ordered !

 

People have to move to where they can afford to live - the horror! Maybe even to the... North! How unspeakable.

 

One of my suppliers has an office in the same building as The Guardian. It's a palatial place in Kings Cross and obviously helps the journalists cultivate their affinity with the working man. Every time I have to go I feel like putting a brick through the plate glass.

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Two stories I was told (1st/2nd hand):

(1) Self-employed software developer in UK. Would get no mortage at all, not even at an 80% down payment!! Bought house for cash in the end (he could).

(2) Young couple, he bought a while ago. Now they want to move together. He won't sell, since it would be at a loss. He tries now to become a BTL, and buy another one. Good luck, given (1).

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People have to move to where they can afford to live - the horror! Maybe even to the... North! How unspeakable.

Indeed.

They should be glad that they are not being:

 

+ Shipped out to the colonies

+ Forced "into service" as domestic servants

+ Made to fight wars

 

Instead, the dependent folks are totally passive, and expect to be coddled to in every way, while being able to live where they choose at State expense. It is disgusting.

 

If I was in such a position, I would be using my brain to find a place to live somewhere cheap, so I could save some money to start a business, or get access to better education and opportunities. In fact, I have been without a salary now for about 12 years. I never thought of taking help from the state, though I may have been entitled. And instead, have built an "interesting" amount of wealth in that time, and paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in taxes, helping to support the sort of people who do nothing at all for anyone else, but just serve as a tax burden. The whining poor will get no sympathy from me, if they cannot make ends meet in an expensive city like London, and refuse to consider alternatives. As an old friend use to say: "We've carried them long enough." The middle class deserve not to be robbed by the spongers.

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Two stories I was told (1st/2nd hand):

(1) Self-employed software developer in UK. Would get no mortage at all, not even at an 80% down payment!! Bought house for cash in the end (he could).

(2) Young couple, he bought a while ago. Now they want to move together. He won't sell, since it would be at a loss. He tries now to become a BTL, and buy another one. Good luck, given (1).

Yeah, but they might have a chance to get a mortgage, if their combined incomes are high enough. The bank will probably just ignore the risk that one of them could lose their job.

 

I used to find ir ridiculous that banks were relunctant to give me mortgage loans in this low interest rate environment, even though I would point out:

 

+ I don't have a job to lose, so you can take that risk "off the table"

+ I have 30-40 years worth of decent job's income invested in stocks and liquid assets, an no other debt

+ I can pay off the mortgage anytime I like

 

When I then said, I am happy to take a loan for just 50-60%, since "I am not sure it is prudent to borrow more, and I want the bank to be totally comfortable lending to me." Then they would usually come back an offer a loan of 70%. It's a funny world !

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Two stories I was told (1st/2nd hand):

(1) Self-employed software developer in UK. Would get no mortage at all, not even at an 80% down payment!! Bought house for cash in the end (he could).

(2) Young couple, he bought a while ago. Now they want to move together. He won't sell, since it would be at a loss. He tries now to become a BTL, and buy another one. Good luck, given (1).

 

My bank would not give me a loan as I am self employed and not a home owner, regardless of my income and other assets. I thought it was a bit cheeky considering they had just been downgraded by a credit agency.

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Economists turning Austrian (if they haven't been before), or, the beauty of the Irish property bust (10/10 IMHO):

 

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/house-prices-down-50-since-boom-002106774.html

House prices 'down 50% since boom'

...

Ronan Lyons, economist with Daft.ie, said: "It is tempting to see larger house price falls as a bad thing and no doubt many, particularly those in negative equity, will see this dramatic fall in those terms.

 

"However, if the size of the correction in house prices is determined by fundamental factors, then it is better for the prices to race to the finishing line than crawl there."

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My bank would not give me a loan as I am self employed and not a home owner, regardless of my income and other assets. I thought it was a bit cheeky considering they had just been downgraded by a credit agency.

Pretty insane given how they have acted in the past (what ever happpened to liar loans??), especially the fact that they ignore any existing assets.

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Go/stay long London RE?

 

From 2007, but I find this interesting:

 

 

Richest cities and urban areas in 2020

Rank

 

City/Urban area

 

Country

 

Est GDP in 2020 in US$bn

 

Est annual growth 2005-2020

1

Tokyo Japan

1602

 

2.0%

2

New York USA

1561

 

2.2%

3

Los Angeles USA

886

 

2.2%

4

London UK

708

 

3.0%

5

Chicago USA

645

 

2.3%

6

Paris France

611

 

1.9%

7

Mexico City Mexico

608

 

4.5%

8

Philadelphia USA

440

 

2.3%

9

Osaka/Kobe Japan

430

 

1.6%

10

Washington DC USA

426

 

2.4%

11

Buenos Aires Argentina

416

 

3.6%

12

Boston USA

413

 

2.4%

13

Sao Paulo Brazil

411

 

4.1%

14

Hong Kong China

407

 

3.5%

15

Dallas/Fort Worth USA

384

 

2.4%

16

Shanghai China

360

 

6.5%

17

Seoul South Korea

349

 

3.2%

18

Atlanta USA

347

 

2.6%

19

San Francisco/Oakland USA

346

 

2.4%

20

Houston USA

339

 

2.5%

 

http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/richest-cities-2020.html

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Halifax Dec-11 was -0.6% @ £160,063.

 

The Halifax price-to-ASHE earnings is now lower than it has been since Dec-02.

 

pe_dec11.gif

 

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Halifax Dec-11 was -0.6% @ £160,063.

The Halifax price-to-ASHE earnings is now lower than it has been since Dec-02.

pe_dec11.gif

Seasonally Adjusted?

(Anyway, at -0.6%, that's Crash Cruise speed range)

 

What do you suppose the NSA change is?

The answer may surprise you...

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% :

D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% :

========================================

mom: -2.75% : -2.22 % : -Est.DI : 138.3% / - 1.19% = n/a = : -1.03% : -1.86% : - 1.52%

 

-1.86% = That's 3X the SA figure !

 

447533814_5d5f918e87.jpg

 

This sucker's coming Dooown !

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Anyway, that's Crash Cruise speed range

 

Maybe so, but the market is traditionally pretty weak over the last 3rd of the year anyway. Seasonality plays a big role - I expect that we'll run into the traditiona spring bounce sooner rather than later, especially as this winter has been remarkably mild so far.

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Nov 2011 520.4 -1.5 160,801

Dec 2011 510.7 -2.3 157,803

 

-2.3% NSA.

That's quite a drop!

Nominal low was Mar-2009 @ 157,066

 

New lows likely? It will be interesting to see how it unfolds in the coming month. FWIW I do expect a stronger H1, but new lows seem inevitable, whether it is next month, or at some later date.

 

edit: sorry, the SA figure is -0.9%, not -0.6% as I previously said.

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Nov 2011 520.4 -1.5 160,801

Dec 2011 510.7 -2.3 157,803

 

-2.3% NSA.

That's quite a drop!

Nominal low was Mar-2009 @ 157,066

Halifax has been very weak.

Only two months (back in early 2009) were lower than the Dec.2011 figure.

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This sucker's coming Dooown !

 

I'm quite stoked about this. This could finally be IT. I'm feeling confident in my model and everything is suggesting we've slipped in to crash cruise speed with an open road ahead of us. I'll be disappointed if we don't make new lows this year.

 

I'm not looking forward to when this financial crisis starts wreaking havoc. But I'm going to enjoy watching every pound and penny of the UK house price crash. Bring it on.

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I will be good on my word, although I had completely forgotten the bet and still don't even recall making it. I must be getting old! Looks like you will win at this rate.

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Gravity has taken over, winning out over hype

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Happy new year bears!

 

Been in the log cabin for a while, deep in the woods, no internet, no phone.

 

See we are all in lovely bear mode this year (so far).

 

Did anyone hear US employment has been growing again? Several months now, that’s a thing eh.

 

So, house prices about 1 or 2% down for 2011. Hardly significant is it? Lost in the noise.

 

Didn't we hear everyone crying Crash Cruise Speed.... 20% falls coming..... etc etc this time last year?

 

If anything, the world (apart from a couple of crappy little economies in Europe) is in better shape today than it was this time last year.

 

Indeed, if it wasn't the lousy, useless politicians in the Eurozone, you could have been seeing growth in GDP and jobs practically everywhere now.

 

Been chatting with many old friends/colleagues from all over the UK (both rich and poor) over the break. Guess what, they aren’t as near as gloomy as they were last year.

 

Tata, Nissan and many others now investing big time again in good old blighty.

 

BTL taking up the slack again and pressure growing on the Condems to help the poor little FTB.

 

Surge in Buy to let

 

The predictions of doom, gloom and Crash Cruise Speed might just prove to be a little premature again methinks :rolleyes:

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See we are all in lovely bear mode this year (so far).

. . .

Didn't we hear everyone crying Crash Cruise Speed.... 20% falls coming..... etc etc this time last year?

 

If anything, the world (apart from a couple of crappy little economies in Europe) is in better shape today than it was this time last year.

. . .

The predictions of doom, gloom and Crash Cruise Speed might just prove to be a little premature again methinks :rolleyes:

JD,

You are right about one thing: The Spring will make or break this market slide.

I think the weakening of the UK economy (see Steve Keen) will pull the rug on the spring rally.

But we will not know for sure until we get there

 

THE LAST FIVE MONTHS - in 2010 prices fell a bit more than 2011

 

Month-: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide Hal.NSA: HNindex

'10 drop

Jul'10 : 236,332 : 422,248 : 133,627 / 169,347 168,331 : £168,839

Dec10 : 222,410 : 408,248 : 127,473 / 162,249 161,498 : £161,874

change: -13,912 : -14,000 : : - 6,154 / - 7,098 : - 6,833 : - £ 6,965

Pct.chg: - 5.88 % : - 3.32 % : : - 4.60% / - 4.19% : - 4.06% : - 4.13 %

Annual: -14.11% : - 7.97 % : : ===================== - 9.91 %

Dec-Jul: +14,187: +24,393 : : ==================== + £ 4,849

'11 drop

Jul'11 : 236,597 : 432,641 : 129,766 / 168,731 164,714 : £166,723

Dec11 : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx / 163,822 157,803 : £160,813

change : -10,831 : + 2,230 : - X, XXX / - 4,909 : - 6,911 : - £ 5,910

Pct.chg: - 4.58 % : +0.51 % : : - 4.XX% / - 2.91% : - 4.20% : - 3.54 %

Annual: -10.99% : +1.22 % : : ====================== - 8.50 %

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Tata, Nissan and many others now investing big time again in good old blighty.

Is this because Tatas will be the new choice of car for Britain's home 'owners', rather than Landrovers and Mercs?

 

-->> NEW car of British BTLs:

_44347603_tata_car_416.jpg

 

-->> OLD car of British BTLs:

01537-gross.jpg

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Is this because Tatas will be the new choice of car for Britain's home 'owners', rather than Landrovers and Mercs?

 

-->> NEW car of British BTLs:

_44347603_tata_car_416.jpg

 

-->> OLD car of British BTLs:

01537-gross.jpg

Well now Tata owns Jaguar Land Rover maybe we could see a Range Rover Nano. Cheap car with the right badge, like an Aston Martin Cygnet (well, not the cheap bit):

 

Pg-43-aston-martin.jpeg

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/motoring/road-tests/aston-martin-cygnet-2373055.html

 

I think we'll have an interesting spring, I have a feeling that there is quite a backlog of supply that people are holding off marketing until the spring bounce period. I've certainly seen new supply dry up in my area and from a couple of conversations with friends and colleagues it appears to be received wisdom that you don't market until March so your house is fresh for the spring bounce buyers.

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Tata, Nissan and many others now investing big time again in good old blighty.

 

 

Investing :lol:

 

Nissan were given tens of millions in government subsidies and loans.

 

Ratan Tata is one of Cameron's advisors.

http://www.climatechangecapital.com/news-and-events/ccc-in-the-news/ccc's-james-cameron-joins-the-prime-minister's-business-advisory-group.aspx

 

Nest signs £600 million Tata IT contract

The competition to provide administrative services to Nest was concluded early, prompting some to question the value of Tata’s bid.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/nest-signs-600-million-tata-it-contract/a448964?ref=new-model-adviser-shooting-gallery-list

 

Just yesterday we have Tata saying they may start making cars in India

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/8995693/Jaguar-Land-Rover-could-make-cars-in-India-says-Tata.html

 

Cameron is looking to the future like Bliar.

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Investing :lol:

 

Nissan were given tens of millions in government subsidies and loans.

 

Ratan Tata is one of Cameron's advisors.

http://www.climatechangecapital.com/news-and-events/ccc-in-the-news/ccc's-james-cameron-joins-the-prime-minister's-business-advisory-group.aspx

 

Nest signs £600 million Tata IT contract

The competition to provide administrative services to Nest was concluded early, prompting some to question the value of Tata’s bid.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/nest-signs-600-million-tata-it-contract/a448964?ref=new-model-adviser-shooting-gallery-list

 

Just yesterday we have Tata saying they may start making cars in India

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/8995693/Jaguar-Land-Rover-could-make-cars-in-India-says-Tata.html

 

 

Mais bien sur :lol:

 

Or did you think the world worked nicely and friendly and fair?

 

Point is, all countries were offering the same sort of deals because they know that the deals are peanuts compared to the benefit to the country/community.

 

£10's of millions, for creating thousands of jobs! (Direct and indirect) Cheap at half the price.

 

Like it or not, that's the way of the world now. They call it competition ;)

 

As for Tata, with orders growing at 30% YoY, I don't think there is any problem with them opening plant in India, it's common sense.

 

They could have moved the whole operation abroad straight away if they wanted (like the Chinese), but they didn't did they.

 

No, that's right, they have announced 3 significant investments here in the UK over the last 2 years and that is safeguarding my mates jobs in Solihull and the W.Mids. Jobs that would not be here if Tata hadn’t took over a few years back (albeit with the deals offered at that time).

 

So, as long as they are still creating thousands of jobs here, good luck to them.

 

Or would you rather that it all went down the pan?

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