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UK House prices: News & Views

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What, the price of bread goes up 5% and you think a house goes down 5% - in 'real terms'?

 

I guess things are only priced in gold around here.

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Contrary 50sQuiff's assertion that zone 2 is out of reach pricewise, the £200K will definitely get a 1 or 2 bed flat in the zone 2 and 3 areas he's been looking at. Perhaps not prime in the traditional sense, but he's looking at places like New Cross and Brockley and beyond, focusing on the East London Line extension (London Overground) to Canada Water (rats' paradise!) - he explained to me he wants to pitch these places to graduate bankers, who are building their career before they earn enough to buy their own places outright (lol - how this country disturbs me).

 

I said NICE zone2 place. Last time I went to Canada Water was to go to the Decathlon outdoor store in the retail park over there. I had a good walk around to check out the state of the housing. What a grim, gray depressing non-place it was, replete with pokey little executive apartments that I forecast will be populated by DSS tenants in 10 years time. A true BTLers paradise and the exact type of London property that I think is vulnerable to a real fall. By citing Canada Water I think you've just illustrated the exact point I was trying to make. A nice 1-bed flat in Primose Hill will do just fine, but one of those shitbox serviced apartments in a horrible area isn't going to cut it in my view.

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I said NICE zone2 place. Last time I went to Canada Water was to go to the Decathlon outdoor store in the retail park over there. I had a good walk around to check out the state of the housing.

LOL. Not to LIVE in Canada Water. Please re-read my (admittedly hastily-scribbled) post. Canada Water is basically Evilbankerville NOT where my mate is considering to buy, but instead it is its employees to whom he is looking to LET, due to its connection to the ELLX (London Overground) in southern suburbs, e.g. Brockley, Crystal Palace... Becoming increasingly gentrified and visibly more wealthy, even amidst TEOTWAWKI.

 

And LOL again that only "nice" zone 2 places are in North London... oh, THAT old myth! ;-)

 

North London is profoundly unaffordable to mere normals either to rent or buy and therefore hugely overrated. Lived in Crouch End for just under a year before I got fed up with all the wannabe actors, luvvies and landed gentry. Hampstead, Primrose Hill, St Johns Wood, Camden, Belsize Park can all f**k right off according to Joe Mortal.

 

What a grim, gray depressing non-place it was, replete with pokey little executive apartments that I forecast will be populated by DSS tenants in 10 years time. A true BTLers paradise and the exact type of London property that I think is vulnerable to a real fall. By citing Canada Water I think you've just illustrated the exact point I was trying to make. A nice 1-bed flat in Primose Hill will do just fine, but one of those shitbox serviced apartments in a horrible area isn't going to cut it in my view.

And yet further LOLz. Please understand I don't at all disagree with your analysis, but it (deliberately?) misses the point. Those types of slaveboxes are clearly unwise investments, ugly and shoddily built. I share your belief they can easily end up as the new social housing.

 

However, there are definitely nice converted flats in zone 2-3 heading to the leafy south on the London Overground which has a direct link (<20minutes) to Evilbankerville.

 

EDIT (a clarification of my previous post):

 

...he's looking at places like New Cross and Brockley and beyond, focusing on the East London Line extension (London Overground) to Canada Water (rats' paradise!) - he explained to me he wants to pitch these places to graduate bankers, who are building their career before they earn enough to buy their own places outright (lol - how this country disturbs me).

 

You see. I even slag off Canada Water myself! :)

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LOL. Not to LIVE in Canada Water. Please re-read my (admittedly hastily-scribbled) post. Canada Water is basically Evilbankerville NOT where my mate is considering to buy, but instead it is its employees to whom he is looking to LET, due to its connection to the ELLX (London Overground) in southern suburbs, e.g. Brockley, Crystal Palace... Becoming increasingly gentrified and visibly more wealthy, even amidst TEOTWAWKI.

 

And LOL again that only "nice" zone 2 places are in North London... oh, THAT old myth! ;-)

 

North London is profoundly unaffordable to mere normals either to rent or buy and therefore hugely overrated. Lived in Crouch End for just under a year before I got fed up with all the wannabe actors, luvvies and landed gentry. Hampstead, Primrose Hill, St Johns Wood, Camden, Belsize Park can all f**k right off according to Joe Mortal.

 

 

And yet further LOLz. Please understand I don't at all disagree with your analysis, but it (deliberately?) misses the point. Those types of slaveboxes are clearly unwise investments, ugly and shoddily built. I share your belief they can easily end up as the new social housing.

 

However, there are definitely nice converted flats in zone 2-3 heading to the leafy south on the London Overground which has a direct link (<20minutes) to Evilbankerville.

 

EDIT (a clarification of my previous post):

 

 

 

You see. I even slag off Canada Water myself! :)

 

Fair play.

 

As an (adopted) North Londoner I'm not familiar with this "leafy South" you speak of. Is it street slang or gang code of some kind? Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to get back to writing my screenplay...

 

;)

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Fair play.

 

As an (adopted) North Londoner I'm not familiar with this "leafy South" you speak of. Is it street slang or gang code of some kind? Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to get back to writing my screenplay...

 

;)

Hehe. That's right. It's all concrete and gangs and drugs and slums. All of South London is like that. And it's best we remember it as that as it's waaaay cheaper than the unattainable yet oddly fashionable Stokey <prayer>Dear God, please let me get a £400k bedshit in guncrimetastic Hackney) </prayer>. ;-)

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,,, A true BTLers paradise and the exact type of London property that I think is vulnerable to a real fall. By citing Canada Water I think you've just illustrated the exact point I was trying to make. A nice 1-bed flat in Primose Hill will do just fine, but one of those shitbox serviced apartments in a horrible area isn't going to cut it in my view.

And what will follow a BTL paradise?

Armageddon, if Red Ken has his wish

 

http://www.landlordtoday.co.uk/news_features/Red-Ken-wants-to-impose-rent-caps-across-London

 

'Red Ken' plans could drive out landlords, say critics

 

Friday 16th December 2011

Controversy has been ignited after Labour’s mayoral hopeful Ken Livingstone declared all-out war on letting agents and rogue landlords in London, whilst calling for rent caps.

 

Critics said his plans to intervene in the market, and cut rents to no more than one-third of a tenant’s wage, would result in landlords having to lower rents, leaving their yields in tatters and acting as a deterrent to further buy-to-let investment.

 

If elected in May, Livingstone will establish a London-wide, not-for-profit lettings agency, paid for by the public purse, and to be run by the Mayor’s office. Although handful of local authorities do run lettings agencies, none begins to be on the scale proposed by Livingstone. There is speculation that other large metropolitan authorities could decide on a similar path.

=====

 

Great. What a perverted system !

If tenants get a wage cut, so should landlords, without any attempt to balance supply with demand.

 

This comes from the same guy (Death-stone) who did much to create the present mess in the London housing market, by distorting the free market.

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And what will follow a BTL paradise?

Armageddon, if Red Ken has his wish

 

http://www.landlordtoday.co.uk/news_features/Red-Ken-wants-to-impose-rent-caps-across-London

 

'Red Ken' plans could drive out landlords, say critics

I just posted this...

 

Clearly, Mr Livingstone is trying to gain votes, using the popular anger against high rents, without any attempt to understand what has driven rents higher.

 

Truly, it is beyond ridiculous to think that rents should be set according to a tenants wage packet, rather than using a free market system to balance supply and demand, In Death-stone's vision, how would a scarce resource, like nice flats in Kensington, be balanced against the huge demand from people who would want to pay just 1/3 of their wages to live there?

 

I suppose he has in mind some Death-stone supporter sitting inside a Not-for-Profits Letting agency turning the keys over to a friend, who has bribed him by buying him a meal, or perhaps giving the agent a car. That's the sort of corruption that would become endemic in Red Ken's system.

 

If London voters elect this idiot, then will wind up living in a third world society, and that will be exactly what they deserve.

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I just posted this...

 

Clearly, Mr Livingstone is trying to gain votes, using the popular anger against high rents, without any attempt to understand what has driven rents higher.

 

Truly, it is beyond ridiculous to think that rents should be set according to a tenants wage packet, rather than using a free market system to balance supply and demand, In Death-stone's vision, how would a scarce resource, like nice flats in Kensington, be balanced against the huge demand from people who would want to pay just 1/3 of their wages to live there?

 

I suppose he has in mind some Death-stone supporter sitting inside a Not-for-Profits Letting agency turning the keys over to a friend, who has bribed him by buying him a meal, or perhaps giving the agent a car. That's the sort of corruption that would become endemic in Red Ken's system.

 

If London voters elect this idiot, then will wind up living in a third world society, and that will be exactly what they deserve.

 

As Peter Schiff continually points out with college education fees, anything that receives a subsidy is going to be more expensive.

Remove housing benefit and all housing will be cheaper.

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Rightmove out.

 

-2.7MoM but +1.5YoY

 

However, as we have all been saying.....

 

“The market fragmentation caused by the credit crunch

means that success in selling now requires a very careful and complex local market analysis. As always it

involves location, but the number of mortgage-ready buyers you can attract is now dictated by the type and

size of property that you are selling. With all but the most appealing properties, pitching at too high a price

and waiting for offers is a route to stagnation. Four years of increasingly dire economic news have also

trained consumers’ brains to look for stand-out value from day one of marketing. Welcome to the complex

world of your very own local ‘micro-market’”.

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2011/12/december-2011.pdf

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My local market seems to be staggering on - the odd one is going under offer.

 

There are a lot of 4 bed detacheds around here in the 400k - 500k band. For the last 6 months I have seen a number of these come on the market - haven't noticed any selling (well, one did, but it fell through - now on market with different agent, same price) - to join the several dozen that have been on the market for what seems like forever.

 

You would be spoilt for choice if you were in the market for such a house at the moment.

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Rightmove out.

-2.7MoM but +1.5YoY

However, as we have all been saying.....

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2011/12/december-2011.pdf

It looks WEAK ACROSS THE BOARD to me...

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 127,148 - 0.25% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,145 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% :

F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 125,624 - 1.20% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,697 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% :

M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 127,160 +1.22% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,712 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% :

A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 127,721 +0.44% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,393 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% :

M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 128,189 +0.37% / 167,208 = n/a = 161,039 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :H

J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 128,965 +0.61% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,430 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% :

Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 129,766 +0.62% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% :

A : : 231,543 : 418,008 : 128,105 -1.28% / 165,914 = n/a = 161,743 162,076 : £163,995 : - 1.64% :141.2% :

S : : 233.139 : 427,889 : 128,821 +0.55% / 166,256 = n/a = 161,132 162,375 : £164,316 : + 0.20% :141.9% :

O : : 239,672 : 450,210 : 127,252 -1.22% / 165,650 = n/a = 163,311 164,311 : £164,981 : + 0.40% :145.3% :

N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% :

D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,XXX -X.XX% /

========================================

mom: - 2.75% : - 2.22 % : -Est.DI : 138.3% / + 0.XX% = n/a = : -0.97% : -2.14% : - 1.02%

 

London's up GBP 21,000+ from Jan., but down more than GBP 15,300 in the last two months.

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June 2011 = 195.6

December 2011 = 183.7

 

Asking prices down -6.08% since June!

4 out of the last 6 months negative.

 

RM seems very seasonal to me. I expect the usual kite-flyers to emerge as we roll into 2012.

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June 2011 = 195.6

December 2011 = 183.7

 

Asking prices down -6.08% since June!

4 out of the last 6 months negative.

 

RM seems very seasonal to me. I expect the usual kite-flyers to emerge as we roll into 2012.

 

Oddly enough, with the new lending restrictions (possibly) coming into force in 2013, 2012 may be a last chance to grab a "boom time" mortgage :)

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June 2011 = 195.6

December 2011 = 183.7

Asking prices down -6.08% since June!

4 out of the last 6 months negative.

That's "Crash Cruise speed" for 6 months, and for the last two months in London also.

Keep it going for 12 months, and then you have a trend than none can miss.

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That's "Crash Cruise speed" for 6 months, and for the last two months in London also.

 

Well, not really as it's asking prices. They also go up rapidly sometimes, but we don't say that's a boom when they do.

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"Asking prices down -6.08% since June!"

 

That's "Crash Cruise speed" for 6 months, and for the last two months in London also.

Keep it going for 12 months, and then you have a trend than none can miss.

Chinese Retreat ... from Buying Luxe Properties in London

 

Rumors of their appetite are greatly exaggerated.

 

(From an article in today's SCMP):

"Buyers from Asia accounted for most new home purchases in central London for the first time in the six months to the end of April (2011), according to broker Knight Frank LLP. Most were from Hong Kong and Singapore."

 

On the back of that, all the brokers expanded their sales efforts in the Far East, but guess what?

 

"Chinese investors share of prime London home purchases in the most expensive neighborhoods FELL BY MORE THAN HALF in the third quarter... Hamptons International said."

 

Chinese buyers accounted for only 4.9% of sales in Chelsea, Kensington, Knightsbridge and Belgravia, down from 12.6 per cent in the previous quarter

 

That's a Big Drop !

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Chinese Retreat ... from Buying Luxe Properties in London

 

Rumors of their appetite are greatly exaggerated.

 

(From an article in today's SCMP):

"Buyers from Asia accounted for most new home purchases in central London for the first time in the six months to the end of April (2011), according to broker Knight Frank LLP. Most were from Hong Kong and Singapore."

 

On the back of that, all the brokers expanded their sales efforts in the Far East, but guess what?

 

"Chinese investors share of prime London home purchases in the most expensive neighborhoods FELL BY MORE THAN HALF in the third quarter... Hamptons International said."

 

Chinese buyers accounted for only 4.9% of sales in Chelsea, Kensington, Knightsbridge and Belgravia, down from 12.6 per cent in the previous quarter

 

That's a Big Drop !

 

Yep, they got outbid by all the rich greeks and italians moving their funds to "the safe haven" :D

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This fits here too - Don't expect Mortgages terms to get easier...

 

House prices set for 'slow motion' crash

 

Mortgage Solutions | 11 Oct 2011 |

 

Respected economist and investment manager David Kauders has warned that the UK is set for a crash so slow that many will not even see it coming.

 

Kauders thinks house prices rose from the 1970s onwards mainly because the flow of fresh mortgage lending into the system grew more or less uninterruptedly, the Daily Mail reports.

 

Now, he said, we have reached 'system limit'. Kauders maintained that the supply of credit cannot grow further, but instead will start to dwindle and continue to shrink for decades.

 

"There will be small rallies, as we see today, where lending appears to be reviving," according to Kauders.

"But these periods will be followed by greater mortgage contraction. And each time, the value of property will fall, reaching a new, lower level.

 

"It will be a slow-motion crash - so slow that many commentators will not even see it. They will observe only the shorter-term trends," he said.

 

/see: http://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/mortgage-solutions/news/2116096/house-prices-set-slow-motion-crash

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"It will be a slow-motion crash - so slow that many commentators will not even see it. They will observe only the shorter-term trends," he said.

Interesting comment, could be spot on. It also reminds me of the gold market, with the sign turned around, where people focus way too much on the short term.

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The June 2011 report can be found here:

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jun_2011.pdf

 

The average house price was: £168,205

 

18 months to go on this bet. What's your thoughts on this one now?

 

Hi Azazel just a quick update on our wager. With 12 months to go the average house price is £165,798.

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Nov_2011.pdf

 

Looks like you need a 20% fall by the end of 2012 to cross the finishing line. Not impossible but I still fancy my chances of scooping the £20 worth of silver prize :)

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Hi Azazel just a quick update on our wager. With 12 months to go the average house price is £165,798.

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Nov_2011.pdf

 

Looks like you need a 20% fall by the end of 2012 to cross the finishing line. Not impossible but I still fancy my chances of scooping the £20 worth of silver prize :)

remind us: what was the bet?

Can you also post the response on the 2012 Houseprice predictions thread?

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remind us: what was the bet?

Can you also post the response on the 2012 Houseprice predictions thread?

 

From 31st Oct 2010:

 

Lets say the other person wins if by Dec 2012 or earlier the nationwide index falls by 20% or more from here.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4058&view=findpost&p=190279

 

Azazel took me up on the wager:

 

So the nationwide index is the one we shall use.

 

The October 2010 report can be found here:

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Oct_2010.pdf

 

The average house price was: £164,381

 

So you need the average UK house price to go below: £131,505 to win

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4058&view=findpost&p=190289

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Thanks, Doc Solar.

 

People can record their forecasting bets on the 2012 UK Property Predictions thread if they like. Since they may be easier to find there.

 

Alternatively, we could even start a "Forecasting Wagers" thread.

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Spotted coming up for auction soon, 6 2-bed flats in a decent area, easy commute to Manchester on the tram.

 

Wood Court, 205 Brooklands Road, Sale

 

Flat 4 65k guide http://www.countrywidepropertyauctions.co.uk/content/Property_Search/Details/2-bedroom-property-for-sale-in-205-Brooklands-Road-M33-rpache-CHL111040-1324402217

Flat 5 70k guide http://www.countrywidepropertyauctions.co.uk/content/Property_Search/Details/2-bedroom-property-for-sale-in-205-Brooklands-Road-M33-rpache-CHL111039-1324473188

Flat 9 75k guide http://www.countrywidepropertyauctions.co.uk/content/Property_Search/Details/2-bedroom-property-for-sale-in-205-Brooklands-Road-M33-rpache-CHL111038-1324402252

Flat 10 65k guide http://www.countrywidepropertyauctions.co.uk/content/Property_Search/Details/2-bedroom-property-for-sale-in-205-Brooklands-Road-M33-rpache-CHL111037-1324402282

Flat 13 70k guide http://www.countrywidepropertyauctions.co.uk/content/Property_Search/Details/2-bedroom-property-for-sale-in-205-Brooklands-Road-M33-rpache-CHL111036-1324402330

Flat 17 70k guide http://www.countrywidepropertyauctions.co.uk/content/Property_Search/Details/2-bedroom-property-for-sale-in-205-Brooklands-Road-M33-rpache-CHL111035-1324402352

 

All bought on 26/08/2003 for 92k as new about 12-18 months after the development completed. I'd expect them to go for around 20% over guide, so maybe 80 to 90k.

 

One in same apartments failing to sell on open market for 130k.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30614384.html

22 July 2010 Initial entry found

10 September 2010 Price changed: from '£145,000' to '£141,950'

28 January 2011 Price changed: from '£141,950' to '£137,500'

01 July 2011 Price changed: from '£137,500' to '£129,500'

 

Last open market sale at 120k

http://www.mouseprice.com/house-prices/land-registry/205-brooklands-road-sale?Mode=SP

 

They'll rent all day long with few voids at 600pcm to young couples or sharers, no mention of how much service charges are though, slight potential to become social housing.

 

First sale of this type I've seen in this area of Greater Manchester.

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Two reports released today. The Nationwide says prices are down in December but up 1 percent on the year.

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Dec_2011.pdf

 

Meanwhile the Land Registry says prices are up 0.3 percent in November.

 

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/upload/documents/HPI_Report_Nov_11_ws13pm4.pdf

 

 

And, barring a sudden rise in interest rates, this is how it will continue for years.

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