John Doe Posted October 31, 2011 Report Share Posted October 31, 2011 My best guess is that mortgage and cash wise - I seem to be about 50k better off than I was in 2003. Not to bad, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted October 31, 2011 Report Share Posted October 31, 2011 Mortgage approvals down. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15519934 World on edge of new recession. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15519699 Never been a better time to buy buy buy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted November 1, 2011 Report Share Posted November 1, 2011 It's a beatiful day outside and YOY house prices back in positive territory (according to NW) http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-15528740 And UK Q3 GDP +0.5% Happy days (Oh except for that little Greece thing ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunlee Posted November 1, 2011 Report Share Posted November 1, 2011 Yep, this is what I expect it to be for the next couple of years at least, average prices staying stuck between 160000 and 170000 pounds. With government bailout of borrowers and interest rates at record lows and showing no signs of moving upwards, there is simply no pressure to sell and sellers will hold on forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoldAsBrass Posted November 1, 2011 Report Share Posted November 1, 2011 Not to bad, all things considered. We had to move house twice though - into rented, then into rented again when be got booted out after about a year and a half - and then into the house we're in now (which we bought). That rough number even includes the 13k of my hard earned removed from me by way of stamp duty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted November 1, 2011 Report Share Posted November 1, 2011 We had to move house twice though - into rented, then into rented again when be got booted out after about a year and a half - and then into the house we're in now (which we bought). That rough number even includes the 13k of my hard earned removed from me by way of stamp duty. Know what you mean. We STR'd twice, and several rented places (due to one thing and another including floods, owners selling etc). My little-un had lived in 5 different places by age 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 Up they go again +1.2% MoM Boom cruise speed? House prices up 1.2% in October, says Halifax http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15617271 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumpy Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 Very annoying but unfortunately it tallies with the dip in available properties I'm seeing on Rightmove in my area as lots go SSTC. Thing had been progressing nicely as well, volume had been increasing and property bee had shown plenty of falls. Shame, looks like the clock has been reset yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 Very annoying but unfortunately it tallies with the dip in available properties I'm seeing on Rightmove in my area as lots go SSTC. Thing had been progressing nicely as well, volume had been increasing and property bee had shown plenty of falls. Shame, looks like the clock has been reset yet again. Yes, same by us. It really is strange with all the fear around. Flight to (assumed) safety? QE? Ultra low rates for years to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunlee Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 Big price rises as we are entering winter which is always meant to be the quietest time. While interest rates are at nearly nothing and the government is paying people's mortgages, a nominal terms HPC will not happen. In gold and many other foreign currencies the house price crash has of course already happened and will I am sure continue. The real effect of the HPC is of course the reduction in mortgage repayments. With prices down by about 20 percent since peak and mortgage rates cut in half, there is the 60 percent crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 Not surprised at all by this - as I have commented several times, loans are cheaper than they were at the start of the summer, and this is having a direct feedthrough to bottom line prices. Practically speaking, with the continuing squeeze on rents, and the cheaper cost of loans, anyone who can scrape together a 10% deposit can put themselves in a position where buying is cheaper than renting. 15% and you are laughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoldAsBrass Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 The real effect of the HPC is of course the reduction in mortgage repayments. With prices down by about 20 percent since peak and mortgage rates cut in half, there is the 60 percent crash. I have to say that seems a real 'clutching at straws' way of looking at things. From the point of view of someone who bought in, say, 2004 and who sells now at the same price they paid for it - where is the 60% crash? Because I bet that person can't see a crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 I have to say that seems a real 'clutching at straws' way of looking at things. From the point of view of someone who bought in, say, 2004 and who sells now at the same price they paid for it - where is the 60% crash? Because I bet that person can't see a crash. 60% crash in view of cost of buying vs cost of renting? The cost of buying should always be viewed against the cost of renting imo. If rents double then houses are suddenly cheap again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoldAsBrass Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 Know what you mean. We STR'd twice, and several rented places (due to one thing and another including floods, owners selling etc). My little-un had lived in 5 different places by age 4. Yes, that was one of our major worries - getting kicked out of a house which was in catchment for our preferred school and not being able to find anywhere suitable to rent in catchment. Bloody government twerps who talk about needing a 'healthy' (WTFTM) rented sector - and people going on about Buy to Let as if it is a good thing - make my blood boil. You really don't want to be trying to raise a family with the possiblity of having to move house every 6 months hanging over your head. We got kicked out of our first place after 21 months - the landlord's son who lived abroad was getting divorced and they needed the house (4 bed detached) for him (on his own). Despite the fact I deliberately chose to rent, it made me feel like a serf. Our next place we rented on a 12 month tenancy - but every year we waited with baited breath a few months before the tenancy was up to see if we got a renewal letter, if we did how much they thought they were going to put the rent up by or, were we to be kicked out again. Sure enough, it took about 5 years but in the end we got the inevitable 'your time is up' letter. Fortunately, youngest lad was 16 by then so the pressure was off to some extent. I wouldn't like to be in that position with young children. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunlee Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 I have to say that seems a real 'clutching at straws' way of looking at things. From the point of view of someone who bought in, say, 2004 and who sells now at the same price they paid for it - where is the 60% crash? Because I bet that person can't see a crash. No straws being clutched at here. I fully agree that someone who bought in 2004 hasn't seen a crash. Indeed if they have been sensible and have overpaid their mortgage for the last three years or so of super low interest, then they are probably at least a third of their way through their loan and can look at being mortgage free before 2020. They will be fine. The crash which has come and (I think) gone has been expressed in terms of mortgage repayments rather than a fall in the nominal value. As an anecdotal, the family member of mine who bought in summer 2009 (against my advice) now says that his mortgage payments are less than half what the rent of a similar place would be. One of the favourite phrases of the HPCers is about denial, but frankly it is them who are in denial. They cannot recognise that the game has been truly changed by long term super low interest, and then they ban anyone who suggests that it has. It looks almost like a delusional cult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 The bulls are currently having a very decent go at trying to reclaim the 200dma but this offers a low risk/reward trade to the short side. Looking very much like a right shoulder could be forming. The opening rally has already been faded. I have reshorted SPX; stop at 1282 just above the current 200dma. There is plenty of downside if the market decides it wants to take another lurch down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 Yes, same by us. It really is strange with all the fear around. Flight to (assumed) safety? QE? Ultra low rates for years to come? You have to bear in mind these transactions and prices were settled months ago. I've updated the thread here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15252&st=40&gopid=231103entry231103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 You have to bear in mind these transactions and prices were settled months ago. I've updated the thread here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15252&st=40&gopid=231103entry231103 I was under the impression that haliwide are based upon mortgage approvals, i.e. transactions to come. Land Reg (actual finalised transactions) are a few months old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkeegan123 Posted November 8, 2011 Report Share Posted November 8, 2011 Great thread Ladies & Gents, very thought provoking. I need some advice and hope you can help. OK, we have been living in our current, rented property for 4 years and our rent has not increased during that time, hence we are paying well under the going rate for the property. If we were served notice, our rent would increase by 30 - 40% for a comparable house. If we were to buy a comparable property the repayments would be the same as our current rent (with 10% deposit). So clearly, if we were forced to move, buying would be the cheaper option at the moment. I can't help but feel that time could be running out for us in our current home and I want to move under my own terms. We are leaning towards buying for both personal (just became a Dad ) and financial (buy v rent) reasons. Property prices have fallen some 20% in our area and hopefully I can buy at around 12% below asking price in an attempt to avoid negative equity. The question is, I will have to sell some PM's to raise the deposit. So, do I sell just enough PM's for the minimum deposit or sell more and go for a bigger deposit and a better deal on the mortgage? I know there's a 101 variables and that without a crystal ball it's almost impossible to answer, but I welcome your thoughts anyway. Kind regards, JL PS. My thoughts are, interest rates will remain low (timespan - no idea), house prices will remain subdued (possible further 10-15% falls over the next 5 to 10 years), gold will continue rising @ 20-30% per year, but this will be offset slightly by a strengthening pound, rents will continue to rise as buyers struggle to raise deposits to buy, lenders criteria will tighten. Therefore, sell as little gold as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunlee Posted November 8, 2011 Report Share Posted November 8, 2011 Have rents really increased by 30 or 40 percent in the last four years? In the middle of the economic disaster that Britain is going through that is simply crazy. Could I ask where? I wonder how much is driven by the government landlord and bank subsidy sorry, I mean housing benefit for hard working families. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 8, 2011 Report Share Posted November 8, 2011 . . . If we were served notice, our rent would increase by 30 - 40% for a comparable house. If we were to buy a comparable property the repayments would be the same as our current rent (with 10% deposit). So clearly, if we were forced to move, buying would be the cheaper option at the moment. I can't help but feel that time could be running out for us in our current home and I want to move under my own terms. We are leaning towards buying for both personal (just became a Dad ) and financial (buy v rent) reasons. Property prices have fallen some 20% in our area and hopefully I can buy at around 12% below asking price in an attempt to avoid negative equity. I think much might depend on the location... It does sound like you can afford to buy, so if the house values falls and you slide into negative equity, you will not necessarily be trapped. Rising rents was one reason that I recently had a serious look at buying (in London) over the last few weeks. In the end, I decided not to buy, and the probably "temporary" nature of rent increases was one of the reasons. Perhaps the report below will explain things more clearly... Will we see a post-olympics crash in london property? maybe i am in london now, and had an interesting chat with an estate agent yesterday. he was surprisingly honest, and not overly bullish. in fact, he was in some ways more bearish than the comments here. his office is in the poplar area, near canary wharf some points: + the sales market has changed since 1-2 years ago, and it is much more difficult to find buyers. + the "over gbp.250,000" is healthier than the "under gbp.250,000" market - where buyers really struggle to find the required deposits. because of this weakness in prices, you can get higher yields in the lower tier of the market, where yields close to 7% are achievable. in the higher priced sector he has seen buyers "keen to push their money" into the uk property market, bacause they can a higher yield thasn in the banks, and "bricks and mortar" are safer than lending depositing money with wobbly banks. + the rental market remains firm, but it is partly related to olympic hype, and he expects there to be a downwards shift in rents after aug-sept next year + olympic hype works in an interesting way. landlords are reluctant to sign one year leases unless the price is high enough - at full market, or with a uplift. for existing leases, they prefer to leave the rent on a month to month basis at renewal time, so they will be free to find new tenants in march (or whenever the new olympic related tenants would appear.) they would then hope to sign a 3-6 months lease at a much higher price, and push out the existing tenant,or find a new 12 months tenant that will be desperate enough to pay more. + meantime existing tenants are willing to pay a bit more for 12 months leases to get them through the olympic period. when asked if this was pure hype, or there was real new demand coming, he did say that he had rented flats to people who were working on olympics-related projects, mostly construction related. he expects media people, camera men and such to start showing up in march-june, and they would rent flats through august or september. after that, all the extra demand will disappear, shifting rents downwards. And normal tenants will alo know that the olympics are over, so they will be looking for lower rents too many countries see a drop in their economies after the olympics, so london and the uk are expected to be no different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkeegan123 Posted November 8, 2011 Report Share Posted November 8, 2011 Have rents really increased by 30 or 40 percent in the last four years? In the middle of the economic disaster that Britain is going through that is simply crazy. Could I ask where? I wonder how much is driven by the government landlord and bank subsidy sorry, I mean housing benefit for hard working families. We are living in the East Riding of Yorkshire, nr Driffield. Our current rent is £450 for a 3 bed detached with driveway & integral garage. Property of this type is now at about £600+. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-18804549.html This is similar to our current rented property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosworth Posted November 8, 2011 Report Share Posted November 8, 2011 It's a personal choice and a very hard one at that. I am in a similar position. STRd in 2009, 2 kids under 3. Paying nearly £4k a month in rent and staring down the barrel of a 10% uplift. Buying would be cheaper and with fixed rates so low, even factoring in a 20% HPC, buying seems irresistible. Really hard times for an uber bear like me. I empathise with your position but cannot give you an answer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meralti Posted November 9, 2011 Report Share Posted November 9, 2011 Have rents really increased by 30 or 40 percent in the last four years? In the middle of the economic disaster that Britain is going through that is simply crazy. Could I ask where? I wonder how much is driven by the government landlord and bank subsidy sorry, I mean housing benefit for hard working families. As noted this is dependant on location. I'm sure some properties have increased that much, especially in central London. Where I am I just moved to a new rental. Rent is about 5/6 of the asking rent and £50 more than the previous tenants who had lived there for over 2 years. That said asking prices are up but my strong impression is that achieved rents much less so. Rents are volatile and landlords very often try it on when a property is first marketed. Those that drop prices after a few weeks can let easily and they would loose more by having the property empty for a month or two. At my last place the ll demanded a 12% increase - I refused and moved to a better place. He has now had an empty property for 1 and 1/2 months. Don't believe all the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted November 9, 2011 Report Share Posted November 9, 2011 It's a personal choice and a very hard one at that. I am in a similar position. STRd in 2009, 2 kids under 3. Paying nearly £4k a month in rent and staring down the barrel of a 10% uplift. Buying would be cheaper and with fixed rates so low, even factoring in a 20% HPC, buying seems irresistible. Really hard times for an uber bear like me. I empathise with your position but cannot give you an answer... Just curious, but what/where exactly are you renting for 4k/month? That's a heck of a lot of money for accomodation for a family of 4, even in some of the plushest parts of London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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