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drbubb

Gold Comments - 2nd Half

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From DrB's Diary, where I talk about day-to-day movements

 

Scotty, More Power !

 

SPY ... update

bigmd7.gif

 

We had 5 days of rising stocks last week but it came on light volume. By Friday, SPY had risen to near the important 76d.MA. But it simply lacked the power to push thru that level. So yesterday came up and touched the MA (at SPY-94.55) and fell back by a small 0.12% for the day, to close at $92.85.

 

Volume remained below average, but it was heavier than on the rally days preceeding it.

 

Stocks will need some upwards volume to push thru the MA convincingly. It si interesting that the first 5 trading days are considered an important test, giving a valuable signal for the year as a whole.

 

I would certainly like to see the 76d.MA exceeded on healthy volume before the week's end. A failure to do so, would be a negative sign, and would demoralise the bulls.

 

By contrast, HK's Hang Seng has pushed thru it ... update

bigrq4.gif

But EWH, the US-traded etf for Hong Kong has not pushed through.

 

GOLD : Both gold shares (GDX) and gold (GLD, the etf) are well above their 76d.MAs.

bigzx0.gif

However, GLD is now struggling to break through the critical 1 year/252d.MA now.

 

We are in a critical week, methinks.

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Does History Repeat?

 

........ GOLD in the 1970's

gold1970sbo8.gif

........ Gold since 2005 ... update : Gold from 2001

........ bigcz8.gif

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Does History Repeat?

 

........ GOLD in the 1970's

gold1970sbo8.gif

........ Gold since 2005 ... update : Gold from 2001

........ bigcz8.gif

 

 

Dr Bubb, I am slowly getting acquainted with your graphs, charting etc

 

But would you be kind enough to point out what your getting at here?

 

Cheers

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One possible count, maybe slightly untidy with waves iv and i crossing a little, but may be looking at a near term corrective phase.

 

Upper trendline resistance dates back to the peak in March '08, would be a positive if that resistance was broken prior to any corrective phase

 

Possible wave v of 5 to come to break that trendline.

 

 

 

GoldDaily---27-01.png

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I have been warning people they should lighten up on gold for 2-3 weeks now

 

 

A parabolic move.

That wont be bullish, if they suddenly decide it is safe to go back into the stock market,

and they sell their gold to buy stocks.

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