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Gold Comments - 2nd Half

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KEY LEVEL : GLD-$84.00 / Gold $852 as Olympic Torch is lit !

 

Have a look at this chart: update

bigvf5.gif

 

GLD is right on the 252d.MA ! at GLD-$84.00

 

Remember this?:

aa2pf7.gif

 

High Closing Gold was (??)

x SQRT (Fibo.6812): 0.8257

= Adj.Number .......:

 

I think exact intra-day high was 1032

 

sorry but could you spell out the above?

Sure, how's this :

=============== $1,032 TOP

x SQRT (Fibo.6812): x 0.8257 (that's a meaningful number, SQRT of 68.18%

TARGET ======== $ 852 RETRACEMENT LOW

 

Howzat ??

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On 08/08/08 at 8:08:08am the chinese lucky number meaning wealth & prosper.

 

NOW that the moment has come, look for the Chinese to start buying gold / Selling dollars.

 

They want to celebrate the arrival of their Gr-8 Nation

 

Temporary (?) bid drop in the Euro (FXE) ... update : to support at FXE-150

It has also come to the 252d.MA / Next support: 300d., then 377d. MA

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Oil sinks more than $4 as dollar rallies

Crude prices return to three-month lows on a slumping global economy and after disrupted supply from a pipeline attack in Turkey is rerouted.

 

August 8, 2008: 10:17 AM EDT

 

Oil drops below $120

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices tumbled Friday as the dollar rallied strongly against slumping foreign currencies and concerns about a Turkish supply disruption were eased.

 

Light, sweet crude for September delivery lost $4.03 to $115.99 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

 

Crude reversed course after settling higher Thursday, following decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to hold key interest rates steady. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the decision to keep rates at 4.25% came as inflation remains a concern, though the European economic growth outlook was gloomy.

 

"Looking ahead, based on the current prices for futures commodities, the ... annual inflation rate is likely to remain well above a level consistent" with the bank's goal "for quite some time," Trichet said.

 

That sent the dollar soaring against the euro, pound and yen, and oil prices sank. Like all dollar-traded commodities, oil prices tend to fall when the U.S. currency rises. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for foreign investors.

 

"So much of the buying we saw since last August when oil was trading at $68 a barrel was predicated on a weak dollar," said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst with Cameron Hanover Oil. "As the dollar is gaining now, we're seeing an unwinding of those positions in oil."

 

/more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/08/markets/oi...sion=2008080810

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SO BUBB POSTED, then wandered in and bought 'half a mill.

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

 

I just noticed this on the Gold trading thread:

 

Bubb's comment:

"I bought over $500,000 worth of Gold yesterday (thru calls on GLD).

That's my most ever, at least in one day."

 

how many ounces is that??

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http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/aug082008B.html

 

Today's parting words from gold market analyst Ned Schmidt.

He tenders an explanation for the dollar's rally that may not make the conventional headlines, but it is one you might want to take note of. "As is readily evident, the US$ has staged an incredible rally. That rally is one of the strongest to occur without some underlying causal event. In short, nothing readily apparent is happening around the world to cause such a move. Now, consider the weekly purchases of U.S. debt by official institutions, essentially central banks around the world. These numbers are reported weekly by the Federal Reserve, the depository for these bond holdings. In the week ending Wednesday, official institutions made the largest net purchase of U.S. debt ever recorded. They bought the annualized equivalent of $1.457 trillion. Those purchases created a shortage of dollars which created a massive short covering rally in the dollar. That buying pushed the dollar up almost 3% in the past week, or at a 320% annual rate."

 

pjun533l.jpg

 

- he hasnt noticed that the Olympics started today - in Beijing?

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60 - 70 ounces (depending on the last order - did it fill?)

== ==

 

Some real danger here, as this chart shows:

 

aug082008_2.gif

 

source: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/aug082008.html

== ==

"danger"? - explanation added, in edit:

 

The lower Bolly, can be forced easily now by a falling Gold price, since the MA has rolled over

- that's what I meant.

 

Here's what Roger Weigand had to say:

Late Summer Buying Cycle Arrives Near August 15-18, 2008

 

Watch for new rallies in most all commodities markets in late August after an interim shorter term rally and profit-taking event. Channelized mini-rallies in gold and silver are completed. Now its time to buy.

 

Our late summer forecast is a mild haircut in most stock shares including precious metals. The only action to prevent selling is our stunningly time-worthy Plunge Protection Team ...

 

Whatever you do, make a concerted effort to stay with the trend and hang onto your core holdings of preferred shares, cash, and coins. Physical gold should never be sold or, traded but rather accumulated steadily on a monthly savings plan and squirreled away. Big traders are always ready to buy on the dips and normally never sell their gold and silver. You would be amazed how quickly your physical gold and silver will accumulate using this strategy. - Traderrog

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Dont Forget - the SEASONAL CYCLE in the Dollar

DX.GIF

 

After a mid-August peak, a multi-month slide often begins. That's the usual pattern

 

And here's Gold, show its usual late August/ September starting point in a big rally

seasonal_gold.gif

== ==

 

"danger"? - explanation was added to the previous post

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Dont Forget - the SEASONAL CYCLE in the Dollar

...

After a mid-August peak, a multi-month slide often begins. That's the usual pattern

 

And here's Gold, show its usual late August/ September starting point in a big rally

...

 

Those graphs are quite astonishing, I have not seen them before.

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Dont Forget - the SEASONAL CYCLE in the Dollar

DX.GIF

 

After a mid-August peak, a multi-month slide often begins. That's the usual pattern

 

And here's Gold, show its usual late August/ September starting point in a big rally

seasonal_gold.gif

== ==

 

"danger"? - explanation was added to the previous post

 

Now thats an interesting educational graph, makes me realise i should take more notice of trend graphs. thanks for that Dr B. Will watch with interest.

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Those graphs are quite astonishing, I have not seen them before.

 

Having already declared my religion somewhere as a practising agnostic dyslexic insomniac there are times when I do not lie there and wonder about the dog but sit and do some browsing or investment research. The graphs that Dr. B provided prompted me to do the same early this morning but using the actual price of gold with I think a similar result.

 

POG.jpg

 

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Having already declared my religion somewhere as a practising agnostic dyslexic insomniac there are times when I do not lie there and wonder about the dog but sit and do some browsing or investment research. The graphs that Dr. B provided prompted me to do the same early this morning but using the actual price of gold with I think a similar result.

 

POG.jpg

 

Can you explain the 5/10/15 years please, and how you did it :D

 

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Can you explain the 5/10/15 years please, and how you did it :D

 

The average % increase over the period 5/10/15 year period. For each day in each year I calculated the % increase and then averaged across the number of years. Its crude but highlights the buying periods.

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IE over the last 5 years the average gain between August and year end has been 20%?

 

Great charts BTW

 

When I read your reply I though, ‘Nah! That can’t be, I have screwed up somewhere, I was tired must have been thinking about DOG again’.

 

So I went and checked the data and it isn’t 20% as that was from the start of the average year and not the August. The % increases from Aug to end for each year for 2003 to 2007 are 17.72%, 12.78%, 18.31%, -1.02%, 25.48%. The average August to the end of the average year is 14.6%. I have included a graph combining the POG for all of the five years that I used as it helps to visualise the increase.

 

My thanks for you comment on the graphs

 

POG-2003---2007.jpg

 

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thanx for those charts, Id5.

 

they back uo my earlier point that August (usually late August) is normally a good window

for buying Gold.

 

That drop in the oil price, with an brief upwards spike in the dollar,

may have brought forward the buying moment to earlier in August.

 

CC thinks that $850 will be retested within a few days. That is certainly possible.

If it comes, lets see how much volume is in the retest.

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thanx for those charts, Id5.

 

they back uo my earlier point that August (usually late August) is normally a good window

for buying Gold.

 

That drop in the oil price, with an brief upwards spike in the dollar,

may have brought forward the buying moment to earlier in August.

 

CC thinks that $850 will be retested within a few days. That is certainly possible.

If it comes, lets see how much volume is in the retest.

 

Thats really why I wanted to do them just to see if I could repeat the effect.

 

What I also saw that I though was important was that gold nearly always fell between the begining of Feb and mid-April and also between mid-May to Mid-June.

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nochartgifcomptime3freqzu7.gif

 

I;ve heard about gaps before, can you explain why it should be filled?

 

I think there's a thread somewhere. Think of a gap as a vaccuum.

But do not rely on this. It is only a very strong tendency

 

I think it may happen within a few days or weeks, but if this market keeps

falling on this sort of volume, and does V back up, gold bugs are in trouble

 

Re: GAPS

I think there is one from Dec. at something like GLD-80, perhaps this move will

fill that, and then find buying

 

My Olympic trade is clearly out of the medals now, but lots can change between now and Month end

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Re: GAPS

I think there is one from Dec. at something like GLD-80, perhaps this move will

fill that, and then find buying

 

Here it is- approx. GLD$79-80

just prior to Christmas

aa5fi3.gif

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Interesting graphs, moreso after the drop of $30+ dollars today... do you think this is a downward blip before heading up again?

 

That drop must have hurt Bubb coming so soon after making his largest ever purchase.

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Bubb, look at the dollar - http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD

 

It is over bought short term quite massively, but on the weekly chart it has formed a huge W bottom.

 

BTW Morgan thinks we are near a low

 

 

It has been busy to say the least, many have asked if this is THE bottom?

No one can state for certain but I will say I do think this is it, I have

been looking for a spike low in silver and gold. This is certainly a spike

low, the question becomes is this it and do we go up from here?

 

I think we do and now is a good time to finish your buying in metals, and

mining shares. I would want to see a few more days of trading to think

that my analysis is verified, but time will tell. My personal plan is to

be able to buy over the next two months. I did purchase some physical

silver today, and also bought PAAS and SLW on the open. I am off about 4%

on each of those by the close.

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TAKE A LOOK at the Long Term chart:

bigis4.gif

The Bull market is still intact.

Something like $800 is key support on the Monthly chart, then $650 maybe

 

I dont believe the dollar can go much higher. This ws driven by a concerted effort of CB's

in a summer market, and they may have spent their force by now, and will need to be careful

from here. A big bounceback in Gold would mark a very important low for Gold, and give

the Dollar bears a great chance to regroup.

 

In hindsight, the $850 had too many stops, and was too tempting a target for Gold Bears to miss, so they ran the stops there, and triggered a $30 selloff.

 

bigfz6.gif

 

Today's sentiment feels more like a low than the complacency many had on Friday

(self included.) Another few days, could establish a nice low, filling that gap at GLD-$79/80

 

aa5fi3.gif

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This is what a bottom should look like:

aa3pc4.gif

 

The above is the Oil Holders etf (OIH) - includes shares of Oil Service companies.

It often leads Oil (USO), which has sometimes led Gold (GLD) also.

 

It made a low yesterday on light volume, and then rose on heavier volume.

That's a very positive sign, and now it looks set to break above that downtrend line.

 

If OIH opens higher on big volume, a bottom may be in place, and I think it is then likely

that a Gold bottom will come within a few days also.

 

Other charts: OIH vs. USO & GLD: st-10 days : lt-6 months

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This is constructive.

 

This is what a bottom should look like:

aa3pc4.gif

 

The above is the Oil Holders etf (OIH) - includes shares of Oil Service companies.

It often leads Oil (USO), which has sometimes led Gold (GLD) also.

 

It made a low yesterday on light volume, and then rose on heavier volume.

That's a very positive sign, and now it looks set to break above that downtrend line.

 

If OIH opens higher on big volume, a bottom may be in place, and I think it is then likely

that a Gold bottom will come within a few days also.

 

OIH is higher this morning in NY, and has broken its downtrend.

Meantime, GLD looks set to test its low on lighter volume, which would be a potential bottoming formation.

But more work is required, and maybe a visit to GLD-$79 to fill that gap from last Christmas

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