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MAJOR DERIVATIVE MELTDOWN ALERT

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Father, forgive them; for they do not know....

 

:lol: good one.

 

 

 

though I will say that majority of Joe public is still clueless...perhaps will remain so until its too late.

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though I will say that majority of Joe public is still clueless...perhaps will remain so until its too late.

Of course. And the rosy scenarios some on here expect are also too optimistic.

 

The best I expect from all this is the 70s times two. The worst I expect is unprecedented and I don't really want to talk about it.

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Of course. And the rosy scenarios some on here expect are also too optimistic.

 

The best I expect from all this is the 70s times two. The worst I expect is unprecedented and I don't really want to talk about it.

 

option number 2, surely there can be no other.

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option number 2, surely there can be no other.

 

 

exactly...hard to imagine or even compare what will happen once its all out in the open.

 

Its no ordinay recession! / inflatin

 

its HYPERINFLATION with possibly of complete meltdown of financial system

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Is it possible where vitually all the banks are insolvent and the state is also insolvent for there not be economic collapse?

 

If I understand you all correctly this is the case in the USA now.

 

USA has striking similarities to the USSR circa 1989 - declining oil production, massive foreign debt, no effective political leadership, out of control military budget and an expensive unwinnable war against muslim insurgents.

 

The USSR did not have the mother of all credit bubbles bursting is the main difference I can see.

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The USSR did not have the mother of all credit bubbles bursting is the main difference I can see.

One other major difference is that in the USSR people were used to suffer. In the US they're not, and they owe in their own currency.

 

No will to suffer + Debt in your own currency = Hyperinflation

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One other major difference is that in the USSR people were used to suffer. In the US they're not, and they owe in their own currency.

 

No will to suffer + Debt in your own currency = Hyperinflation

 

Hyperinflation is not an easy way out it may seem so but it just pospones it and makes things worse - much worse.

 

Jeese I am glad I have enough gold to matter now.

 

Someone on here said the best solution now is for the Euro to do a Volker, to save that currency at the price of a massive depression in Europe.

 

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Is it possible where vitually all the banks are insolvent and the state is also insolvent for there not be economic collapse?

 

If I understand you all correctly this is the case in the USA now.

 

USA has striking similarities to the USSR circa 1989 - declining oil production, massive foreign debt, no effective political leadership, out of control military budget and an expensive unwinnable war against muslim insurgents.

 

The USSR did not have the mother of all credit bubbles bursting is the main difference I can see.

 

The macro structure of the USSR economy was far more damaged. There is still a lot of room for free enterprise in the US, even now, and still some productive activity. If permitted by the various governments that can mitigate things considerably. If not (price controls, etc) things could get quite exciting.

 

 

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Is it possible where vitually all the banks are insolvent and the state is also insolvent for there not be economic collapse?

 

If I understand you all correctly this is the case in the USA now.

 

USA has striking similarities to the USSR circa 1989 - declining oil production, massive foreign debt, no effective political leadership, out of control military budget and an expensive unwinnable war against muslim insurgents.

 

The USSR did not have the mother of all credit bubbles bursting is the main difference I can see.

 

I think it's very difficult to predict beyond the bail out, but once it happens the problem becomes one of how to allocate this new money.

 

The USSR suffered from government failure, while the US suffered from market failure and the solution for each has been to become more like the other.

 

If the government is careful about how it allocates debt via the nationalised banks then it can keep the economy running, but I think this will seem too abhorent to a country that has a patriotic investment in free markets and recieve a lot of foreign investment on this basis too.

 

If the government provides ongoing supply of money to the banks and allows the banks to allocate the debt via the markets, there is a very strong chance that the markets will continue to allocate this money inefficiently. In turn aspects of the infrastructure may begin to fail causing the risk of production bottlenecks, as seen in the USSR. I think the US government will be very aware of these potential problems and will intervene often. The net effect will be serious down pressure on the dollar and hyper-inflation. There's something quite just about this, in that the wealth that has been earned from the greed encouraged by the failure of the markets will be eroded. The problem will be that people, well informed enough to take advantage of the markets, will already be hedging against inflation.

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The macro structure of the USSR economy was far more damaged. There is still a lot of room for free enterprise in the US, even now, and still some productive activity. If permitted by the various governments that can mitigate things considerably. If not (price controls, etc) things could get quite exciting.

 

The USA's now probable financial collapse will not be the end of the USA, it IMO will be end of a sad chapter of decadence, greed and waste.

 

The Russian collapse likewise was not the end of Russia.

 

Living in luxury has not even made the American people happy but it sure has wasted too much of the earth's resources.

 

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The USSR suffered from government failure, while the US suffered from market failure.

 

Katrina suggests the US government is not that dynamic and on the ball.

 

They are facing a financial meltdown and the politicians are promising more generous welfare - it smacks of denial to me.

 

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In Russia didn't the state already own everything?

No need to buy anything, no need to kick anybody out of their house.

 

Does the US have the same natural resources as Russia to recover?

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The USA's now probable financial collapse will not be the end of the USA, it IMO will be end of a sad chapter of decadence, greed and waste.

 

The Russian collapse likewise was not the end of Russia.

 

Living in luxury has not even made the American people happy but it sure has wasted too much of the earth's resources.

 

I couldn't agree more, there are a number of measurements of global happiness, this is one example.

Compare with GDP per capita.

Worth noting are the socialist states of China, Venezela and Cuba.

 

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Happy_Planet_Index

 

Greed is highest, Red is lowest.

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10...iling-bank.html

 

 

Now taxpayers may bail out Bradford & Bingley as ministers plan to nationalise ailing bank

 

By Simon Duke and Sam Fleming

Last updated at 10:08 PM on 26th September 2008

 

 

Bradford & Bingley could be nationalised to save it from collapse.

 

Ministers are considering a dramatic plan to merge it with Northern Rock to create a publicly-owned ‘superbank’.

 

Sources stressed that depositors’ cash would be guaranteed by the Government. The desperate rescue scheme emerged at the end of another tumultuous week in the global financial crisis.

 

 

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A vast reduction in the number of financial institutions

 

Interesting. Does it matter if half of Wall St of the City of London close down ? Will anyone notice ? All these dire warnings from Bush downwards are beginning to sound like heavy cronyism for all their financial pals.

 

 

 

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Interesting. Does it matter if half of Wall St of the City of London close down ? Will anyone notice ? All these dire warnings from Bush downwards are beginning to sound like heavy cronyism for all their financial pals.

 

The key problem is that nearly all business is dependent on credit. (Thats where the bankers have us by the vitals)

 

No credit = massive depression.

 

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Posted On: Friday, September 26, 2008, 2:15:00 PM EST

 

Public Starts To See True Scope Of OTC Derivative Crisis

 

Author: Jim Sinclair

 

 

 

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

What more can be said? The amount of money being discussed today along with the argument of why should the average American have to take on OTC derivative losses (can you imagine anyone reluctant to pay off Wall Street losses?) is not even scratching at the funds that are going to be required. Monty's estimates range from a low of $5 trillion to a high of $20 trillion. Some think the amount might even be higher than Monty's upper estimate. The public is quickly getting the idea of just how bad the problem is while the Wall Street types are still being paid huge bonuses for doing things like creating bankruptcy.

 

CONSEQUENCES will only increase as the supply of dollars increases. As dollars come under pressure from the excess supply, gold will rise to $1200 and then $1650.

 

CONSEQUENCES is the stuff that even spin cannot delay or change.

 

Look at one days borrowing - Wednesday.

 

The comforting feeling to the general market is that relief comes Sunday, when a compromised bailout deal will be announced. What few are focused on is that there will be another Sunday, and another Sunday, and another Sunday.

 

The media has convinced many that this is a one off event that if it does not fix everything, at least the crisis will not reappear.

 

This covers all one needs to know now.

 

For those like myself that consider Harry Schultz to be the Dean on markets, I suggest you seek what his opinion is NOW.

 

Stay the Course.

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1...amp;T_ARID=6718

 

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Now taxpayers may bail out Bradford & Bingley as ministers plan to nationalise ailing bank

...

We're in the middle of a bl00dy $h1tstorm.

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Bush is 100% correct, this sucker is going down.

 

http://www.inteldaily.com/?c=139&a=8301

 

$1 Quadrillion of Unregulated Debt At Core of Coming Derivatives Crisis

American Free Press

 

Believe it or not, the Dow is still not far from its all-time peaks, with a lot further to fall. The depression is still in its early stages. We are looking at $1 quadrillion of unregulated debt, with much of it at risk. (And we used to think $1 trillion was a lot.)

 

These are literally inconceivable sums. Counting one dollar per second, it would take 32 million years to count to one quadrillion.

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Just a thought.

 

Quadrillion = 1,000,000,000,000,000

 

one thousand million million; 10 to the power of 24

 

 

A quadrillion of debt puts a huge burden on the institution of the dollar. Owning dollars is also owning shares in this burden-laden institution. What is $1 really worth? Or more realistically, I should ask what is $1000 really worth? If we were shown the balance book of credit money in one column and debt money in the other, I suspect this would look very scary.... very imbalanced. I think this imbalance will lead to the demise of this institution.

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Just a thought.

 

Quadrillion = 1,000,000,000,000,000

 

one thousand million million; 10 to the power of 24

 

 

A quadrillion of debt puts a huge burden on the institution of the dollar. Owning dollars is also owning shares in this burden-laden institution. What is $1 really worth? Or more realistically, I should ask what is $1000 really worth? If we were shown the balance book of credit money in one column and debt money in the other, I suspect this would look very scary.... very imbalanced. I think this imbalance will lead to the demise of this institution.

 

 

In the last gold bull the value of all the gold in the world briefly matched all the dollars in the world - I think I read that on one of GF's posts.

 

How high does gold need to go to do that again?

 

Edit - thats silly the US is bankrupt in all but name - it wont happen again quite the same - USD will be worthless and one oz will be worth more than all the dollars in the world like the post WW1 mark.

 

 

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