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what do you think is the likelihood of wage inflation in the UK

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I personally believe wages will start to go up soon. If commodities keep going up in price there is no alternative.....is there?

 

I understand that we are a global economy now but surely most nations (including china, india etc) are feeling the same pressure to increase wages.

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I personally believe wages will start to go up soon. If commodities keep going up in price there is no alternative.....is there?

 

I understand that we are a global economy now but surely most nations (including china, india etc) are feeling the same pressure to increase wages.

 

I agree, but I think it will be very uneven, and a lot of people will see real incomes fall as prices rise higher than wages.

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The problem is if they increase minimum wage then wages for everyone will have to increase to compensate. A much more New Labour solution is to just leave wages as they are then let the people angriest against minimum wage just claim benefits instead of rioting or something, which is the current model. Many people claim benefits as they don't think it's worth working for minimum wage.

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Wages will not rise all by themselves, there will have to be a return to serious industrial action on a mass scale as we witnessed in the 70s before wages start to rise.

 

The sector with the most power is Transport/lorry drivers, they have ability to shut the country down and they also have the support of the car driving public. We have created a society that is even more dependent on an oil based infrastructure since the original fuel protests. I speak anecdotally to people who are beginning to suffer from the prolonged higher cost of fuel its only a matter of time before the public start to show unrest.

 

There are quite a few other areas where we can see industrial action starting over pay, in the main its public sector workers but eventually it will spread. The UK economy has only just started to turn downwards I don't think that the public are about to accept a lower standard of living without a fight. The 70s period of economic turmoil, high oil prices, high inflation and stagflation were rife with industrial action.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7411437.stm Police's warning shot in pay row

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/lancashire/7404120.stm Second strike over wages review

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7365331.stm School's out as teachers march

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7341980.stm Coastguard staff strike over pay

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7175503.stm Ministers seek prison strike ban

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7129299.stm Civil servants on 48-hour strike

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6987810.stm Unions back 'co-ordinated' action

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Wage inflation my a**e!!!

Look below at the email I received at work today - was really p**ed off :angry: :angry:

 

 

Dear XXXXXX of XXXXXX Limited,

 

RBS has recently undertaken a review of all aspects of their cost base including contractor spend across their Technology organisation. Following an internal and external benchmarking exercise, a decision has been made to invoke a blanket 10% contractor rate reduction across Technology in both RBS and ABN.

 

The planned changes will be effective as of Monday 14th July 2008 and it will impact all contractors across IT.

 

Your support and co-operation with this exercise is greatly appreciated and we acknowledge that this financially impacts you personally, your commitment and effort to RBS is greatly valued.

 

To confirm your agreement to amending the contract between XXXXXX and XXXXXXX, following are the details for your contract:

 

Contractor Name

XXXXXXXXXXX

Limited Company Name

XXXXXXXXXXXX

Effective Date of Revised Rate

Monday 14th July 2008

Revised Rate

£XXX (previous rate -10%)

Contract End Date

XXXXXXXXXXX

 

Please sign in the space below and return by close of business Thursday 12th June 2008 to XXXXXXX at the below address.

 

If you operate via an Umbrella Company please forward this on and ensure they reply to us signing the agreement below by Thursday 12th June 2008.

 

If we don’t received signed a signed copy of this document back by Thursday 12th June 2008, it will be deemed as acceptance of the above revised terms.

 

If you subsequently decline to accept these revised terms, this is to serve notice of your current terms with Resource Solutions and your assignment at RBS, thus your final working day will be Friday 11th July 2008. Please confirm your non-acceptance of these revised terms, via return email or alternatively in writing to the below address before Thursday 12th June 2008.

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Anyway I am trying to make peace with this and try to channel the negative energy from my anger and to consider this as a kick in the butt to get myself to escape the rat race with even more motivation. Having read the book The Secret recently I am trying to see this as a potential sign from the Universe pushing me closer to my goals..

 

Still I find the tone of that email and the method very abrupt and clumsy: how to demotivate a large part of your work force all at once (instead of cutting the dead wood...) :(

 

If one thing it really shows that RBS are scraping for Cash

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One more thing - about UK plc:

 

I am a foreigner working in one of the "most dynamic" industry in the UK (the City) and:

- My costs of living are going up

- The currency in which I am getting paid (GBP) is going down and will most likely keep doing so

- My nominal pay is getting cut

- My tax bill has just gone up since the last Budget

 

I am not complaining as I still consider myself lucky in the position I am in anyway but this further highlights the fact that the UK is becoming less in less attractive...

 

 

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Anyway I am trying to make peace with this and try to channel the negative energy from my anger and to consider this as a kick in the butt to get myself to escape the rat race with even more motivation. Having read the book The Secret recently I am trying to see this as a potential sign from the Universe pushing me closer to my goals..

 

Still I find the tone of that email and the method very abrupt and clumsy: how to demotivate a large part of your work force all at once (instead of cutting the dead wood...) :(

 

If one thing it really shows that RBS are scraping for Cash

That email was very 1980's.

 

I too am wondering where the wage inflation is going to come from? Are the public sector unions and members really up for a fight and strike action 1970's style? I'm not convinced. The unions may get something out of Brown, if only because he seems to need their money at the moment to stay in business :lol: , but it will be a surprise if they get inflation busting pay increases. If anything, Brown is trying his old trick of trying to sell public sector workers the 3 year pay deal, which will be well below real inflation and the unions know this.

 

Off topic and it may be a topic in itself, but I too read The Secret a little while ago. Some would dismiss it as irrational claptrap, but in trying to be open minded about such subjects I always ask those who see a totally logical universe to explain quantum mechanics. The quantum world is about as irrational and illogical as you can get.

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Wage inflation my a**e!!!

 

Ah! The joy of contracting! Your contract HAS been terminated.

 

If they haven’t met the terms of the termination clauses in the contract then your company can sue them and it will win, although you will have to spend to get the return. Alternatively you may sign a new contract with them with different conditions. They owe you no courtesy, you are too small for them to care about and you are not their employee, they have no legal employee obligations to you. You do not have WAGE from them.

 

You are not a wage slave and you do not get any of the benefits that wage slaves do. Your company is getting a return on the value of your knowledge not the amount of effort you put in. If you cannot get the same value elsewhere without taking the 10% drop then your knowledge is stale, there are too many people offering the same knowledge as you and you should train up on more valuable knowledge or become a wage slave.

 

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I personally believe wages will start to go up soon. If commodities keep going up in price there is no alternative.....is there?

 

I understand that we are a global economy now but surely most nations (including china, india etc) are feeling the same pressure to increase wages.

 

I think we may be caught in a trap if we are headed for a high fuel cost, high food cost economy.

 

Our economy has become services orientated, so our workers do not create wealth, they rely on making money providing services to wealth creators. Put another way, we make money from moving stuff around (transport, marketing, retailing, call centring). If it becomes more costly to move physical goods around, then there will be less demand for services like transportation and more demand for localised production and much shorter supply chains. We are singularly ill-equipped to go back to making stuff ourselves and it doesn't pay well.

 

Such a transition suggests wage rate slaughter in the transition.

 

If the above is correct, I would question whether the current economic model - two worker families, children in care, is sustainable. The costs of travelling will make many second jobs unviable (i.e. Salary - tax - childcare costs - fuel - clothing - subsistence = <= £0) and make it more profitable to dispense with child minding, nannying, babysitting and spend time making sound use of expensive food materials, mending things (now there is a word gone out of fashion!) and generally being green, etc. I think that this will be true even for couples, or at least, the type of jobs that will be sought out by the second earner may change - local, eliminating the need for second cars or drastically reducing mileage covered.

 

If this happens, then the pool of skilled workers will be significantly diminished and those that exist will be less willing to travel long distances, which will exacerbate the shortages that will make for a lot of upward pressure on wage rates.

 

So at that point highly skilled workers could find themselves very much better off.

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I would agree with the general consensus - that wages will not rise in line with inflation but for one thing - the political aspect. The Labour party in general, and Brown in particular, are seriously weakened at the ballot box. I have no reason to believe that this lot of politicians won't use inflation in a desperate attempt to pacify the public and especially the trades unions, and to save their jobs. The Labour Party is all but bankrupt and desperately needs Union money to keep it aflaot. And with the exception of a few, it seems to me that MPs are in it for personal gain and not public service - just look at their expenses claims.

 

Thus, I would expect to see inflationary wage rises in the public sector and unionised sectors but wage restraint in the private sector as rising unemployment threatens job security.

 

Having said that, there is a stealthy move by government to outsource to the private sector a lot of public services. For instance, I know of a recruitment company that has just picked up a very large government contract to get people on Incapacity Benefit back into work. One of my sons works for the company - he was hired to work on a business to business basis - his original target was to introduce twenty new companies a month who would guarantee interviews for long term Incap claimants, and another part of the company would do the candidate placement. But just recently his job spec has been changed so that he has to do the customer facing work, too, and get eleven candidates a month into work to meet his new targets.

 

So, the squeeze is on in the private sector, but I reckon the brakes will come off in what remains of the public sector. How this two-tier system will be reconciled is another matter; I guess it will take a General Election and validation at the ballot box of a new government for public sector wages to feel the squeeze. No doubt official inflation figures will continue to be fiddled thus keeping pensions and other benefits in check. However, fiddled figures will probably not fool flighty capital and I suspect interest rates will have to go up before we see the end of this NuLab government.

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I think significant wage inflation is very unlikely. My reason for this is becasue of the underlying reasons for the current rises in the price of goods and sevices we are seeing. It is certainly true that some of these rises are down to a reaction to falls in the value of the dollar for a number of reasons (one of which is inflation of supply of the dollar) and also a speculative bubble as a consequence of money fleeing the financial markets and looking for a new home.

 

Having said all of the above, a significant portion of the rise is down to supply constraints of carbon fossil energy in the face of ever rising demand. This then feeds through to the price of everything else, of course, since oil is the larger portion of the energy footprint of everthing else. What I am trying to suggest is that a good portion of the price rises we are seeing is actually down to a deflation of supply of the commodities in question rather than simply and solely an inflation of the money supply. People will only tend to be successful in their pay demands if there is actually more money floating about.

 

Given that huge amounts of E-money, in the form of credit, has been and is currently being wiped out of existence via debt defaults, this means that a lot of the money that the FED is bringing into existence and then handing out to the banks is merely replacing the e-money that has been lost. In other words, this is not as monetarily inflationary as some might think. It has been done to try and stop a 1930s style deflation of the money supply. It may yet fail. Granted, the FED will almost certainly overshoot and cause in initial inflationary spike. But, a spike is all it will be, I think. Monetary deflation is almost inevitable, ultimately.

 

So, we have the recipie for a perfect storm. Rising prices of goods and services due to real supply constraints, coupled with a real possibility of deflation of the money supply.

 

We are all about to become a hell of a lot poorer.

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I think significant wage inflation is very unlikely. My reason for this is becasue of the underlying reasons for the current rises in the price of goods and sevices we are seeing. It is certainly true that some of these rises are down to a reaction to inflation of the money supply and also a speculative bubble as a consequence of money fleeing the financial markets and looking for a new home.

 

Having said all of the above, a significant portion of the rise is down to supply constraints of carbon fossil energy in the face of ever rising demand. This then feeds through to the price of everything else, of course, since oil is the larger portion of the energy footprint of everthing else. What I am trying to suggest is that a good portion of the price rises we are seeing is actually down to a deflation of supply of the commodities in question rather than simply and solely an inflation of the money supply. People will only tend to be successful in their pay demands if there is actually more money floating about.

 

Given that huge amounts of E-money, in the form of credit, has been and is currently being wiped out of existence via debt defaults, this means that a lot of the money that the FED is bringing into existence and then handing out to the banks is merely replacing the e-money that has been lost. In other words, this is not as monetarily inflationary as some might think. It has been done to try and stop a 1930s style deflation. It may yet fail. Granted, the FED will almost certainly overshoot and cause in initial inflationary spike. But, a spike is all it will be, I think. Monetray deflation is almost inevitable, ultimately.

 

So, we have the recipie for a perfect storm. Rising prices of goods and services due to real supply constraints, coupled with a real possibility of deflation of the money supply.

 

We are all about to become a hell of a lot poorer.

 

All valid points, Steve, but you have not addressed the political imperative vis a vis union pressure and public service sector discontent with wage rises that do not match inflation as stated, never mind aas is. Or do you think these effects will be too small to count?

 

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All valid points, Steve, but you have not addressed the political imperative vis a vis union pressure and public service sector discontent with wage rises that do not match inflation as stated, never mind aas is. Or do you think these effects will be too small to count?

Hi there Methinkshe

 

I cetainly envisage major industrial unrest over the coming months and years to be sure. Will the government of the day capitulate and pay them more money? Not unless, they start printing money like there is no tommorow. Because they certainly won't have any real wealth to hand out to the workers. Will they opt for such a truly insane strategy? Who knows, but I guess I wouldn't put it past them.

 

The trouble with funding pay rises in this way, of course, is that they are entirely nominal and so are followed in very short order by accompanying price rises. People will be just as poor as they were prior to the pay rise. It solves nothing in any real terms.

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Hi there MethinksShe

 

I cetainly envisage major industrial unrest over the coming months and years to be sure. Will the governemnt of the day capitulate and pay them more money? Not unless, they start printing money like there is no tommorow. Becaus they certainly woin't have any real wealth to hand out to the workers. Will they opt for such a truly insane strategy? Who knows, but I guess I wouldn't put it past them.

 

The trouble with funding pay rises in this way, of course, is that they are entirely nominal and so people will be just as poor as they were prior to the rise. It solves nothing in any real terms.

 

Hi, you, too, Steve!

 

Heh - are you messing with my username??!! You have given me an extra "S" and a capital one at that!

 

I am more or less convinced that they'll print money - not because it is the correct response but because it is the most expedient response. And, yes, I agree that this will impoverish everyone but Labour MPs are now rats on a sinking ship and I don't think that they will be as interested in the long term viability of their economic policies as the short term interest of keeping the Labour Party afloat through Union support and themselves in a job.

 

 

 

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Hi, you, too, Steve!

 

Heh - are you messing with my username??!! You have given me an extra "S" and a capital one at that!

 

I am more or less convinced that they'll print money - not because it is the correct response but because it is the most expedient response. And, yes, I agree that this will impoverish everyone but Labour MPs are now rats on a sinking ship and I don't think that they will be as interested in the long term viability of their economic policies as the short term interest of keeping the Labour Party afloat through Union support and themselves in a job.

Depressingly, I guess I must agree with this.

 

P.S. apologies for mangling your username..... ;)

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P.S. apologies for mangling your username..... ;)

 

No worries.

 

Is HPC down for you btw? I can't log on. That's why I'm posting here - usually I only lurk. It's too intimidating for me in the normal course of events, but I feel a need to catch up having spent all day yesterday at the Royal Cornwall Show. No shortage of money evidenced there, btw. £13.00 entrance fee for adults, half price for under 16s, and when you get in it's all trade stands trying to sell. So we paid for the privilege to be sold too! Nothing worth buying, either, imo. If it hadn't been that the kids begged me to take them, I wouldn't have gone. And I don't think that even they will be asking me to go next year. It's taken us 12 years living in Cornwall to attend and this will be the first and last time.

 

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The issue of wage inflation is not quite the same as in the 70s as these days we have a globalized workforce. The production that used to take place domestically is now done off shore, our workforce is mainly involved in the warehousing, transport and retail part of the supply chain. In China wages are going up and since we still don't produce enough of the products that we consume we have little barging power in the market. As fuel costs rise then it will push up the cost of these goods, Jim puplava has mentioned that in 2000 the cost of transporting a 40ft container from China was $3000 with $100 oil the cost has risen to $9000 and rising. The thing is that wage inflation is rising in China as a result of falling Fiat purchasing power and this will force the cost of goods up around the world.

 

So price-inflation is going to happen because of our over dependence on cheap goods from abroad, these incredibly low priced goods have hidden our falling standard of living over the past 10 years and eventually we will not be able to afford to buy them in the same quantities as before. At some point we will have to start making things in the UK again, but how much will it cost to produce these goods in the UK? and if we do begin to become self sufficient again does that strengthen the hand of the unions and their pay demands?

 

The sector that has the power to demand higher wage prices are the truckers and haulage firms, they control the supply of goods in the UK and I expect them to exert their power over the next few years. This time though the police and government have had plenty of time to plan their response to fuel protests. New tactics and laws have been introduced over the past few years to make protests much more difficult and risky for those taking part. I think that the Truckers will become a thorn in the governments side like the 'miners' were in the late 70-80s and a future conservative government may find itself taking on the Truckers in the same way.

 

 

 

Truckers slam 'police state'

7/ 6/2008

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/new...m_police_state_

 

 

A HAULAGE boss has criticised police after truckers who protested over rising fuel prices were threatened with having their vehicles seized.

 

Haulier Andrew Greig said officers' actions were like those of a 'police state'.

 

Seven drivers from Chris Bennett Haulage, in Stockport, were stopped at the end of an orderly demonstration by 500 bikers and 20 HGVs on the M60 and M602 on Thursday.

 

Police claimed they had driven too slowly and broken away from the main group of protesters. Officers issued them with a verbal warning.

 

But Mr Grieg, a manager from the company which has a fleet of 40 trucks, dismissed the police claims, accused officers of victimising the truckers and said his drivers had adhered to force instructions.

 

-------------------

 

 

"When they came to the end of the M602 in Salford they were all filtered away one by one and had the vehicle registration and tax disc videoed.

 

"Each driver was told that if they took part in another protest they would have their vehicle seized and lose their operating licence. It would appear our drivers are being victimised. All they have done is take part in a peaceful protest.

 

------------------

 

The warning given to the HGV drivers is a verbal warning under Section 59 of the Police Reform Act and relates to the anti-social use of a motor vehicle.

 

It gives police the power to seize a vehicle if the driver who received the warning is involved in further anti-social behaviour. The warning also applies to the vehicle itself, which can also be seized if it is being used in an anti-social way, even if it is being driven by someone else.

 

 

Over 100 bikers join the big M-way blockade

6/ 6/2008

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/new...g_mway_blockade

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No worries.

 

Is HPC down for you btw? I can't log on. That's why I'm posting here - usually I only lurk. It's too intimidating for me in the normal course of events, but I feel a need to catch up having spent all day yesterday at the Royal Cornwall Show. No shortage of money evidenced there, btw. £13.00 entrance fee for adults, half price for under 16s, and when you get in it's all trade stands trying to sell. So we paid for the privilege to be sold too! Nothing worth buying, either, imo. If it hadn't been that the kids begged me to take them, I wouldn't have gone. And I don't think that even they will be asking me to go next year. It's taken us 12 years living in Cornwall to attend and this will be the first and last time.

Yes it is totally down at the monent. Went down shortly after midnight last night and is yet to cme back online. So, I am guessing it is a major problem they are having there at the moment.

 

I totally agree with you regarding the tendency of the kind of show you mention to go for a toal rip off from the monment you walk through the gates. It puts you on your guard all of the time becuase you know that some bugger is constantly out to part you with your hard earned..... ;)

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Yes it is totally down at the monent. Went down shortly after midnight last night and is yet to cme back online. So, I am guessing it is a major problem they are having there at the moment.

 

I totally agree with you regarding the tendency of the kind of show you mention to go for a toal rip off from the monment you walk through the gates. It puts you on your guard all of the time becuase you know that some bugger is constantly out to part you with your hard earned..... ;)

 

Hey, Steve, since you're here, would you care to take a look at the pinned thread on demographics where I posted a response. I know you are a bit "Club of Rome" by persuasion, so I'd be interested to hear your opinion on the so-called demographic time bomb.

 

Sorry for using this thread as a contact point.

 

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The issue of wage inflation is not quite the same as in the 70s as these days we have a globalized workforce. The production that used to take place domestically is now done off shore, our workforce is mainly involved in the warehousing, transport and retail part of the supply chain. In China wages are going up and since we still don't produce enough of the products that we consume we have little barging power in the market. As fuel costs rise then it will push up the cost of these goods, Jim puplava has mentioned that in 2000 the cost of transporting a 40ft container from China was $3000 with $100 oil the cost has risen to $9000 and rising. The thing is that wage inflation is rising in China as a result of falling Fiat purchasing power and this will force the cost of goods up around the world.

 

So price-inflation is going to happen because of our over dependence on cheap goods from abroad, these incredibly low priced goods have hidden our falling standard of living over the past 10 years and eventually we will not be able to afford to buy them in the same quantities as before. At some point we will have to start making things in the UK again, but how much will it cost to produce these goods in the UK? and if we do begin to become self sufficient again does that strengthen the hand of the unions and their pay demands?

 

The sector that has the power to demand higher wage prices are the truckers and haulage firms, they control the supply of goods in the UK and I expect them to exert their power over the next few years. This time though the police and government have had plenty of time to plan their response to fuel protests. New tactics and laws have been introduced over the past few years to make protests much more difficult and risky for those taking part. I think that the Truckers will become a thorn in the governments side like the 'miners' were in the late 70-80s and a future conservative government may find itself taking on the Truckers in the same way.

 

 

 

Truckers slam 'police state'

7/ 6/2008

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/new...m_police_state_

 

 

A HAULAGE boss has criticised police after truckers who protested over rising fuel prices were threatened with having their vehicles seized.

 

Haulier Andrew Greig said officers' actions were like those of a 'police state'.

 

Seven drivers from Chris Bennett Haulage, in Stockport, were stopped at the end of an orderly demonstration by 500 bikers and 20 HGVs on the M60 and M602 on Thursday.

 

Police claimed they had driven too slowly and broken away from the main group of protesters. Officers issued them with a verbal warning.

 

But Mr Grieg, a manager from the company which has a fleet of 40 trucks, dismissed the police claims, accused officers of victimising the truckers and said his drivers had adhered to force instructions.

 

-------------------

 

 

"When they came to the end of the M602 in Salford they were all filtered away one by one and had the vehicle registration and tax disc videoed.

 

"Each driver was told that if they took part in another protest they would have their vehicle seized and lose their operating licence. It would appear our drivers are being victimised. All they have done is take part in a peaceful protest.

 

------------------

 

The warning given to the HGV drivers is a verbal warning under Section 59 of the Police Reform Act and relates to the anti-social use of a motor vehicle.

 

It gives police the power to seize a vehicle if the driver who received the warning is involved in further anti-social behaviour. The warning also applies to the vehicle itself, which can also be seized if it is being used in an anti-social way, even if it is being driven by someone else.

 

 

Over 100 bikers join the big M-way blockade

6/ 6/2008

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/new...g_mway_blockade

Thanks for this informative post Enrieb.

 

I can certainly see the bargaining power of the haulage workers you envisage coming to pass. If we are a poorer country over the comning years (or more accurately...if we come to finally accept that we were poor all along for quite a long time but are now unable to maintain our denial about it), then there are only two ways in which such pay rises such as the ones described could be funded.

 

Either the people higher up the food chain in our economy take a profit hit in order to fund the rises.

 

Or, money is created out of thin air by the government of the day to fund the rises, at least for public sector workers.

 

In the first instance, I can't see the bosses of private industry caving in when their profits will already be hit from a worldwide recession

 

In the second instance, I unfortunately can see any government of the day capitulating to public service sector workers by simply bringing money into existence for the purpose of political excpediency with all of the inflationary insanity that will engender.

 

In other words, I'm not sure..... :lol:

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Don't underestimate the power of unions. The labour Party is in big financial trouble. They need the unions to get them out of their current mess, never mind fund their future.

 

I totally agree that haulage will be a key, but I think they could also be a trigger for every other unionised sector to hold to ransom this Labour Government.

 

I haven't dismissed a wage/price inflationary spiral yet, even though I believe tha private sector will be capping, if not reducing wages.

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