"Taking the Pain" has started in the US & UK

[frizzers]

HA! How to you park the car without trashing the primroses?

[G0ldfinger]

...

(Notice how the image shows one car, and three pedestrians) : Neighborhood

"The rooftops of HCA Wesley Medical Center and Wichita Clinic can be seen from Parkstone, less than a mile away. Many College Hill youngsters walk to school with Wichita K-12 and magnet schools nearby. Wichita State University, Friends and Newman University are minutes from your Parkstone home."

 

Kids walking to school. (Mom not a chauffeur.) What a wonderful old-fashioned concept that is!

 

Why is Barratt incapable of building projects like this?

I've seen houses like these even in Indianapolis.

 

In Indy you can now get a repossessed 3-bedroom house 6 miles from the center for $25,000 (yes, the ground comes with it). With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pumping the market, I just read a 30-year mortgage fixed rate can be found at 6.01%. That is not much money per month, and would definitely be more than covered by the rent (possibly multiple times).

[drbubb]

I've seen houses like these even in Indianapolis.

 

In Indy you can now get a repossessed 3-bedroom house 6 miles from the center for $25,000 (yes, the ground comes with it). With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pumping the market, I just read a 30-year mortgage fixed rate can be found at 6.01%. That is not much money per month, and would definitely be more than covered by the rent (possibly multiple times).

 

Interesting.

How are the transport links?

 

My theory is: all real estate will fall in the US.

And after that, some prices will recover, but not in the "stranded suburbs" (ie the suburbs with decent mass

transit links, connecting to jobs, etc.)

 

The Problem

The industrialized nations made a terrible mistake when they turned to the automobile as an instrument of improved urban mobility. The car brought with it major unanticipated consequences for urban life and has become a serious cause of environmental, social, and aesthetic problems in cities. The urban automobile:

 

+ Kills street life

+ Damages the social fabric of communities

+ Isolates people

+ Fosters suburban sprawl

+ Endangers other street users

+ Blots the city's beauty

+ Disturbs people with its noise

+ Causes air pollution

+ Slaughters thousands every year

+ Exacerbates global warming

+ Wastes energy and natural resources

+ Impoverishes nations (especially those with heavy suburban living patterns)

 

The challenge is to remove cars and trucks from cities while at the same time improving mobility and reducing its total costs.

 

Links:

Carfree Cities - the web site that goes with the book. Carfree Cities proposes a delightful solution to the vexing problem of urban automobiles.

 

World Carfree Network , the hub of the global carfree movement.

 

/more links: http://www.carfree.com/link/furp.html

[drbubb]

WE "EAT OIL" TOO... But not very efficiently

 

"How dependent on oil is our food system?" Richard Heinberg, a leading "peak oil" scholar and the author of The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies said in an interview. "Enormously dependent. Fatally dependent, I would say."

 

Of course, you won't find any oil on your dinner plate, but petroleum and other fossil fuels are inside of every bite you eat. About one-fifth of all U.S. energy use goes into the food system. The synthetic nitrogen fertilizers that are essential for high crop yields are a byproduct of natural gas. Gasoline and diesel fuels power the combines that rumble through the grain fields. Countless kilowatts of electricity are burned up in the factories that process all of the packaged goods that line the supermarket shelves. And then there's the gasoline required simply to get food to market. We now have a globalized food system, one in which the typical American meal travels 1,500 miles from farm to fork. Organic products -- though they may have a more sustainable veneer -- are in many respects no different; 10 percent of organic products come from abroad. Without oil, we would all be on one harsh diet.

 

"We've created an agricultural system where, on average, for every energy of food calorie we produce, we need to expend about 10 calories of fossil fuels," Heinberg said.

. . .

Author Heinberg says the island nation of Cuba offers a model for how such a transition can occur. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Communist nation found itself cut off from the subsidized petroleum it had long depended on. In order to feed itself, the government launched a sweeping program to enlist citizens in urban gardening and composting. In the last decade, the country has become an internationally recognized model of sustainable agriculture.

 

"[Cuba] basically had an oil famine in the early '90s, and they had to break up the big state-owned farms and start smaller farms," says Heinberg. "They included farming as part of the curriculum in our schools. They raised the salaries of farmers.

 

"And they had to do these things, or otherwise they simply would not have survived as a society."

 

/see: http://www.alternet.org/environment/41023/

[cbs7]

"We've created an agricultural system where, on average, for every energy of food calorie we produce, we need to expend about 10 calories of fossil fuels," Heinberg said.

. . .

Author Heinberg says the island nation of Cuba offers a model for how such a transition can occur. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Communist nation found itself cut off from the subsidized petroleum it had long depended on. In order to feed itself, the government launched a sweeping program to enlist citizens in urban gardening and composting. In the last decade, the country has become an internationally recognized model of sustainable agriculture.

 

"[Cuba] basically had an oil famine in the early '90s, and they had to break up the big state-owned farms and start smaller farms," says Heinberg. "They included farming as part of the curriculum in our schools. They raised the salaries of farmers.

 

"And they had to do these things, or otherwise they simply would not have survived as a society."

 

/see: http://www.alternet.org/environment/41023/

I've been to Cuba and outside the tourist zones it's a pretty miserable place. There is hardly any food available beyond the absolute basics though nobody starves in Cuba as everyone receives a (very) basic monthly ration. Food has to be sold at very low fixed prices determined by the government and meat and cheese are generally sold on the black market by the side of the road. The roads are shot to pieces and although many people have some lovely old cars most people simply can't afford to drive them.

 

Something interesting though is that there is a genuine sense of solidairity among farmers there. One day we stopped and chatted to a group of tobacco farmers who were helping each other to rebuild a tobacco curing barn which had blown down, and it seemed they would always help each other whenever it was needed.

 

Many in the West have a romantic idea of how wonderful Cuba is, but it has a huge number of problems, many of course created or worsened by the US blockade but the poltical system has a lot of faults too. Thinking about it I wonder if it's an example of where the West could end up in worst-case post-peak oil scenario... I hope not

 

[drbubb]

I've been to Cuba and outside the tourist zones it's a pretty miserable place. There is hardly any food available beyond the absolute basics though nobody starves in Cuba as everyone receives a (very) basic monthly ration. Food has to be sold at very low fixed prices determined by the government and meat and cheese are generally sold on the black market by the side of the road. The roads are shot to pieces and although many people have some lovely old cars most people simply can't afford to drive them.

 

I am keen to go to Cuba someday.

I think it is a sort of post-peak-oil society, and there may be loads to learn from how they function.'

Anyone willing to start a Cuba thread?

 

[drbubb]

US driving falls first time in 30 years on oil prices

===========

 

THE last time this happened Jimmy Carter was US president. In March, US driving fell an astonishing 4.3 per cent on a year earlier.

 

It was first time driving has fallen in the month since 1979.

 

US driving began to taper off in November, according to Doug Hecox of the Federal Highway Administration, but at first it was thought the decline could be seasonal, because of bad weather. Then came March, and the largest year-over-year driving drop in the agency's recorded history, going back to 1942.

 

"We are beginning to see what we think is a very defensible trend beginning," Mr Hecox said.

 

US drivers drove 11 billion miles (17.7 billion kilometres) fewer in March than a year earlier.

 

The reduction comes amid skyrocketing petrol prices and a shaky US economy - which adds up to fewer people on the road. The average price of petrol is hovering around $US3.87 ($4.03) a gallon (3.8 litres), and things may become even worse as prices continue to rise for the summer driving season.

. . .

If oil hits $US200 a barrel, which is the upper end of Goldman Sach's prediction for prices over the next six months to two years, the petrol picture changes quite dramatically. At $US200 a barrel, crude alone would cost $US4.76 a gallon. Add on the costs of refining and distributing as well as taxes, and pump prices could rise to a range of $US6 to $US7 a gallon.

 

Consumers have already taken note, with US petrol demand down 0.6 per cent this year compared with the same period in 2007, according to the Department of Energy.

 

The Department of Transportation estimates that greenhouse gas emissions fell by about 9 million tonnes in the first quarter. Year to date, driving is almost at 2004 levels, nearly erasing four years of gains. Driving fell most sharply in Kentucky, where it is down 8 per cent from a year earlier.

 

The erosion in demand is likely to accelerate if petrol prices shoot above $US6, but a radical cutback in consumption will occur only if high prices weaken the US economy further and contribute to increased unemployment

 

/more: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...6-26017,00.html

== == == == ==

 

"astonishing"? -4.3%? No. It is just a little start

[zceb90]

WE "EAT OIL" TOO... But not very efficiently

 

"How dependent on oil is our food system?" Richard Heinberg, a leading "peak oil" scholar and the author of The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies said in an interview. "Enormously dependent. Fatally dependent, I would say."

 

Of course, you won't find any oil on your dinner plate, but petroleum and other fossil fuels are inside of every bite you eat. About one-fifth of all U.S. energy use goes into the food system. The synthetic nitrogen fertilizers that are essential for high crop yields are a byproduct of natural gas. Gasoline and diesel fuels power the combines that rumble through the grain fields. Countless kilowatts of electricity are burned up in the factories that process all of the packaged goods that line the supermarket shelves. And then there's the gasoline required simply to get food to market. We now have a globalized food system, one in which the typical American meal travels 1,500 miles from farm to fork. Organic products -- though they may have a more sustainable veneer -- are in many respects no different; 10 percent of organic products come from abroad. Without oil, we would all be on one harsh diet.

 

"We've created an agricultural system where, on average, for every energy of food calorie we produce, we need to expend about 10 calories of fossil fuels," Heinberg said.

. . .

Here's a 2003 paper which demonstrates in no uncertain terms just how oil-dependent the current food chain is: Eating Fossil Fuels.

[zceb90]

Remember that glut of centre city 2BR and 3BR flats in Britain?

AFTER the price drops, I can see demand stabilising while demand for properties in the stranded suburbs continues to shrink. This will surprise the old property bulls on SP who ae so negative about those properties. But the day of this shift is still perhaps a minimum of 18 months to 2 years away, because the pressure for price falls is now so great. Meantime, watch for rental demand for these properties to pick up, as people SELL their stranded suburban homes to STR and downsize into a city centre flat

I posted a link to recent Paul Krugman article on HPC recently but don't think it's been shown here. The site I originally used, NY Times, has archived the article which means it requires (free) registration; here's another link I've found which avoids need to register: Stranded In Suburbia.

[drbubb]

I posted a link to recent Paul Krugman article on HPC recently but don't think it's been shown here. The site I originally used, NY Times, has archived the article which means it requires (free) registration; here's another link I've found which avoids need to register: Stranded In Suburbia.

 

Great article - makes great sense.

EXCERPT:

"Europeans who have achieved a high standard of living in spite of very high energy prices - gas in Germany costs more than $8 a gallon - have a lot to teach us Americans about how to deal with that world.

If Europe's example is any guide, here are the two secrets of coping with expensive oil: Own fuel-efficient cars, and don't drive them too much."

 

Better yet: live somewhere that requires no car at all

 

#2:

"Infrastructure is another problem. Public transit, in particular, faces a chicken-and-egg problem: It's hard to justify transit systems unless there's sufficient population density, yet it's hard to persuade people to live in denser neighborhoods unless they come with the advantage of transit access."

 

Bite the bullet. Impose a petrol tax to pay for public transport. And/or impose a huge tax on any new Stranded suburban area

[frizzers]

This looks interesting, but I haven't had a chance to read through it yet.

\

http://www.waterpoweredcar.com/stanmeyer.html

 

On the subject of Cuba, I sent a long time there in the 90s. I LOATHED the place

[drbubb]

On the subject of Cuba, I sent a long time there in the 90s. I LOATHED the place

 

Would you still loath it today?

Does it have any lessons for us on living well, using less energy?

 

(Surely, you liked the music, at least. Bellevista Social Club et al. see/listen:

)

 

[GTG]

According to BBC Radio 5 live Cuba has the worlds most centenarians per capita at over 1000 people, the average life expectancy being 82, didn't catch whether that was gender specific.

 

I expect this tallies with the absence of an imported toxic western lifestyle, think processed food and artificial pesticides, feritilisers and herbicides. I believe most if not all of their grown produce is organic. Less polution from burning gasoline and arguably less stress in a society where keeping up with the Jones's is not a widespread obsession. The shortages of food also gives credance to the argument that it is more healthy to leave the dinning table slightly hungry than to eat until one is full. My understanding is that their socialized health care system is also very good.

 

 

 

 

[cbs7]

I am keen to go to Cuba someday.

I think it is a sort of post-peak-oil society, and there may be loads to learn from how they function.'

Anyone willing to start a Cuba thread?

 

Cuba is fascinating and perhaps the model of how a society functions where the price of petrol is simply way out of reach of the ordinary citizens. However I think many in the West view it through rose-tinted spectacles. They have a romantic image of it and its revolutionaries such as Che Guevara, but to me it would be horrendous place to live. I live a simple but comfortable western lifestyle and I realise there are some areas where things will change as we move through Peak Oil, but the conidtions in Cuba for ordinary people are just too low that I would want to see them come to pass in the developed world. I live in hope that we will be able to overcome the challenges of Peak Oil and restructure, just hopefully not too late...

 

When I visited Cuba in 2006 the price of almost anything was way too expensive for ordinary people who didn't receive any outside money from family members abroad. People could hardly afford even soap or toilet paper. In 2006 a doctor earned about 35 USD equivalent a month, a teacher about 25 USD per month, and petrol was about 1 dollar per litre. The roads were delapidated and empty apart from trucks run by the government which picked up people who hitch from the side of the road and there were very very few private cars (presumably owned by the relatively wealthy)

 

I like Cuba and the people, but I think most are desparate for change. I speak Spanish so could converse with them directly. There were a good number who thought that the socialist government was still the way forward, but I have my doubts. I asked some people who did say there was good free health care, some others said that yes it was free, but medicines weren't avialable and the hospitals were in disrepair. I'm sure that the constant interference from the US government has made the matter worse over the years and strengthened Castro's grip, but I do think it will change over time and hopefully for the better. I've heard that Raul Castro has liberalised things a little which sound promising, though the US unfortunately continues with its extreme policy of demonising the leadership which tends to prevent any constructive dialogue between the 2 neighbours.

 

[malco]

This looks interesting, but I haven't had a chance to read through it yet.

\

http://www.waterpoweredcar.com/stanmeyer.html

 

On the subject of Cuba, I sent a long time there in the 90s. I LOATHED the place

It looks sad as hell, not interesting. It shows how divorced people are from the energy supply that gives them their life. When I see interest in water-powered cars I know we are near the end

 

Why did you hate Cuba so much? Is it any worse than Switzerland? Can you take a shower after 10PM wihout your neighbour complaining to the Police?

[Huw]

Cuba is fascinating and perhaps the model of how a society functions where the price of petrol is simply way out of reach of the ordinary citizens. However I think many in the West view it through rose-tinted spectacles. They have a romantic image of it and its revolutionaries such as Che Guevara, but to me it would be horrendous place to live. I live a simple but comfortable western lifestyle and I realise there are some areas where things will change as we move through Peak Oil, but the conidtions in Cuba for ordinary people are just too low that I would want to see them come to pass in the developed world. I live in hope that we will be able to overcome the challenges of Peak Oil and restructure, just hopefully not too late...

 

When I visited Cuba in 2006 the price of almost anything was way too expensive for ordinary people who didn't receive any outside money from family members abroad. People could hardly afford even soap or toilet paper. In 2006 a doctor earned about 35 USD equivalent a month, a teacher about 25 USD per month, and petrol was about 1 dollar per litre. The roads were delapidated and empty apart from trucks run by the government which picked up people who hitch from the side of the road and there were very very few private cars (presumably owned by the relatively wealthy)

 

I like Cuba and the people, but I think most are desparate for change. I speak Spanish so could converse with them directly. There were a good number who thought that the socialist government was still the way forward, but I have my doubts. I asked some people who did say there was good free health care, some others said that yes it was free, but medicines weren't avialable and the hospitals were in disrepair. I'm sure that the constant interference from the US government has made the matter worse over the years and strengthened Castro's grip, but I do think it will change over time and hopefully for the better. I've heard that Raul Castro has liberalised things a little which sound promising, though the US unfortunately continues with its extreme policy of demonising the leadership which tends to prevent any constructive dialogue between the 2 neighbours.

I agree that there's a tendency in the West (particularly among liberals and peak-oilers) to view Cuba through rose-tinted spectacles; the country has plenty of problems and I understand it's not as independent of fossil fuels as some make out.

 

However, we need to compare like with like. If a country like Cuba had followed the 'Western approved path', would it now have better outcomes (in terms of key indicators like literacy, child mortality and life expectancy)? Or would it have a bellyful of debt, and its government and natural resources in the pockets of foreign corporations?

 

My own view is that the US embargo has probably been the saviour of Cuba, and that their best hope is that the wheels fall off the international financial system before domestic pressures force the government to open Cuba up to that system.

 

[drbubb]

My own view is that the US embargo has probably been the saviour of Cuba, and that their best hope is that the wheels fall off the international financial system before domestic pressures force the government to open Cuba up to that system.

 

How very ironic. US embargo "saves" Cuba.

Will oil into the US be embargoed one day? If so, the US would have to find a way to survive without

all those expensive oil imports

 

[Huw]

Will oil into the US be embargoed one day?

By a combination of geology and debt, if not for geopolitical reasons. The same for the UK, of course. Interesting times.

 

[zceb90]

By a combination of geology and debt, if not for geopolitical reasons. The same for the UK, of course. Interesting times.

Falling exports from key oil producers will hit first - they are already hitting!

[littledavesab]

.

 

 

A glance at the house, and I can see they dont get it. You dont build homes like that with the notion of a

nearby public transport link.

 

Why is Barratt incapable of building projects like this?

 

 

If you look closely at the first Barratts house there is no drive in front of the ** Garage ** just grass! Clearly Barratts have anticipated the demise of the automobile and the garage is just for storage.....Ha

[Errol]

If you look closely at the first Barratts house there is no drive in front of the ** Garage ** just grass! Clearly Barratts have anticipated the demise of the automobile and the garage is just for storage.....Ha

 

Great spot! You miss it if you don't look carefully. What a blunder.

[cbs7]

Looks like change is underway in Cuba

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7449776.stm

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7364791.stm

[Huw]

Looks like change is underway in Cuba

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7449776.stm

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7364791.stm

Interesting, thanks for the links.

 

[drbubb]

= 1/ =

Gas prices hit all-time high

National average price keeps climbing - up more than a third in price from a year ago.

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gasoline prices hit yet another record Sunday, with more than half the nation's states paying more than $4 per gallon on average, according to a daily survey from motorist group AAA.

 

The national average price for regular unleaded gasoline climbed slightly to $4.077 a gallon, according to AAA's Web site.

 

The average topped $4 for the first time last week after crude oil prices surged to a trading record above $139 per barrel. The price has swung back and forth in a $10 range since then.

 

Gas is most expensive in California, according to the survey, averaging $4.597, followed by Alaska at $4.436

 

/more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/15/news/econo...oney_topstories

 

 

= 2/ =

Adapt or die: Future of big SUVs

Large trucks and SUV will be still be needed in 5 to 10 years. But they'll need to change

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Until recently, big SUVs had resisted the sales declines hitting their smaller, mid-size brethren. That was because large SUV drivers were hard-core - they really needed interior room and pulling power, and they weren't about to switch to car-like crossovers.

 

But with skyrocketing gasoline prices, many big SUV drivers are rethinking those needs. Last month, non-luxury full-size SUV sales plunged 41% compared with last year, according to the Power Information Network, which tracks the auto industry.

 

Big SUVs aren't going to go away. Car companies still need to cater to their customers' needs while satisfying stricter government requirements and consumers' need for better fuel economy

. . .

No matter how fuel-efficient they become, sales of large truck-base SUVs will probably never return to their former levels. Besides higher gas prices, consumers will also have alternatives that might better fit their real needs.

 

But, no matter what, large SUVs will remain a market that's simply too big to just walk away from

 

/more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/11/autos/future_suv/index.htm

 

 

= 3/ =

18 ways to beat inflation

Cut out some waste and take advantage of a few overlooked deals, and you can rein in your budget without feeling like a penny-pincher.

 

(Includes some interesting stats on household spending):

 

Gasoline: 5% of your household budget / Up 21% from a year ago

 

ITEM------ %Budget / Change

Groceries...... : 14.% / + 5% .. 0.70%

Medical Costs : 6.0% / + 4% .. 0.24%

Gasoline......... : 5.0% / +21% .. 1.05%

Home Energy. : 4.0% / + 9% .. 0.36%

College Edu... : 1.0% / + 6% .. 0.06%

 

========= : 30% / ------ .. 2.41%

 

Making your next car a hybrid could triple your mileage per gallon. If gas stays above $3.60, a Toyota Camry hybrid makes up for its premium over the standard model in a year and a half.

Even if you don't go hybrid, choosing the most fuel-efficient vehicle in your car class can still save $200 to $1,500 a year in fuel costs.

 

To compare the true fuel cost for all 2008 models, go to edmunds.com or fueleconomy.gov.

 

Potential savings: $2,400 a year if you trade an SUV for a hybrid

 

 

/see: http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/pf/080...oney_topstories