drbubb Posted August 23, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2008 Bloomberg now: "The Voters will vote for the one who will they think will get oil prices down." Clueless and wasteful American voters truly deserve the firestorm headed their way ! - Just like the clueless UK property bulls deseve their now-sorry fate. They should be voting for the one who will put oil prices UP, and spend the extra tax money in the right way. So American living standards will stay in a Crash-Cruise-Speed decline, until these fools wake up!! Let them make heroes out of Villains liek Greenspan, that lie and help them ruin their own futures. What they really need is strong leaders to take them thru the meaningful pain (of higher oil prices) into a less-wasteful future. They will not realise it until it is way too late. Except for that tiny minority that acts to protect themselves and their families Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted September 4, 2008 Report Share Posted September 4, 2008 Dr. Bubb, what do you think about fib alignment on this chart? would you realign the numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted September 5, 2008 Report Share Posted September 5, 2008 Techie Tim Wood and buddies sees oil going to $75 maybe 50! cyclesman mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted September 5, 2008 Report Share Posted September 5, 2008 Techie Tim Wood and buddies sees oil going to $75 maybe 50! cyclesman mp3 If that happens then all I would retract all my past critcism of TW, who as far as I could tell from his previous FSN input never committed to the direction of any moves; unless he just saves that for subscribers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted September 5, 2008 Report Share Posted September 5, 2008 If that happens then all I would retract all my past critcism of TW, who as far as I could tell from his previous FSN input never committed to the direction of any moves; unless he just saves that for subscribers. The three of them were happy to go "on the record" of stating this level. Talk about leaving your knackers exposed! I'd be interested in seeing his past record too, as far as i'm aware his calls on the dow and s&p have been close I also read somewhere yesterday that Saudi have projected 2009 on a minimum of $90/ barrel. I seriously doubt if OPEC will let oil fall this low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted September 5, 2008 Report Share Posted September 5, 2008 The three of them were happy to go "on the record" of stating this level. Talk about leaving your knackers exposed! I'd be interested in seeing his past record too, as far as i'm aware his calls on the dow and s&p have been close I also read somewhere yesterday that Saudi have projected 2009 on a minimum of $90/ barrel. I seriously doubt if OPEC will let oil fall this low 90 is a very good number, so if we ajust C to 85 as a low it could be more realistic outlook than 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted September 5, 2008 Report Share Posted September 5, 2008 i made some changes to the chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 TIME to buy oil, maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 TIME to buy oil, maybe With the Saudi's indicating a willingness to stabilise supply rather than cut back, add concerns of demand destruction to the table and perhaps not wishing to be seen as the driver of it, then there's mooted moves by some to look at alternatives possibly an irritation but who knows, would the chart not go out the window as the cartel look more on wider consequences than the price? Just asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Oil ends at 5-month low on OPEC talk Crude futures decline amid expectations the cartel won't officially cut production, and as Hurricane Ike appears set to miss the Gulf production fields NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices fell Tuesday, as investors believed OPEC will keep production at current levels, and as Hurricane Ike lost strength over Cuba. U.S. crude for October delivery settled down $3.08 to $103.26 a barrel, the lowest close since April 1, when oil ended the day at $100.98 a barrel. Waiting for OPEC: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries met Tuesday to discuss production levels in light of falling prices and a perceived pullback in demand as the world economy slows. Slumping global energy demand has caused the price of crude to fall sharply from the record-high $147.27 a barrel, set on July 11. /more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/09/markets/oil/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ret45 Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 signals are good for oil, also for Agriculture. But right now gold looks like its best value of all. have a feeling that oil prices will be kept low one way or another until US election... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 With the Saudi's indicating a willingness to stabilise supply rather than cut back, add concerns of demand destruction... Right - OIH broke below the lower channel on my chart yesterday- so it is headed lower. However, I think the Saudis have a mixed message, not a purely bearish one- although the market is focused now on the bearish part. Here's a part of the article - this point is not getting enough attention: "Another analyst said that while it looks as if OPEC will not officially cut production, it may try to adhere to quotas more strictly. "They are probably 700,000 to 800,000 barrels each day over their quotas," said Andrew Lebow, a broker at MF Global in New York. "The chat is that they might adhere more to the quotas." "As usual, the Saudis are the key," said Lebow. When it comes to the "increase over the quotas, they are the ones that have the lion share." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ret45 Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 OPEC has room to reduce output while staying above quota, the question is do they want to be the whipping boys for McCain etc al. Impossible to judge but my wild guess is that they'll maintain status quo for now, which would put further downward pressure on oil. Having said that, I have just now opened a buy position on DB commodity index! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 OPEC has room to reduce output while staying above quota, the question is do they want to be the whipping boys for McCain etc al. Impossible to judge but my wild guess is that they'll maintain status quo for now, which would put further downward pressure on oil. Having said that, I have just now opened a buy position on DB commodity index! They can have the political benefit (with the Bushies and McCain) of having maintain the quotas, while quietly cutting back on their over-quota production. I think the market may quickly realise this is what is going to happen. The retracement of the "Once-Trod-Path" (for Oil) now looks like it is over Here are the once-trod paths for the Euro We have nearly closed the higher and middle ones. (And the lower one might disappear, if my chart went back further) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Right - OIH broke below the lower channel on my chart yesterday- so it is headed lower. However, I think the Saudis have a mixed message, not a purely bearish one- although the market is focused now on the bearish part. Here's a part of the article - this point is not getting enough attention: "Another analyst said that while it looks as if OPEC will not officially cut production, it may try to adhere to quotas more strictly. "They are probably 700,000 to 800,000 barrels each day over their quotas," said Andrew Lebow, a broker at MF Global in New York. "The chat is that they might adhere more to the quotas." "As usual, the Saudis are the key," said Lebow. When it comes to the "increase over the quotas, they are the ones that have the lion share." The penny drops with that, so really, by better control they don't really have to do much at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 OPEC agrees to curb oil overproduction Ministers of oil producing nations announce that they will cut back 520,000 barrels a day in overproduction of crude to avoid more energy turmoil. VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- OPEC oil ministers have agreed to curb overproduction by more than 500,000 barrels, in a compromise meant to avoid new turmoil in crude markets while seeking to prevent prices from falling too far. The move reflects OPEC efforts to cover all bases in an oil market that saw prices spike to a new record just short of US$150 a barrel in July, only to shed nearly 30 percent off those peaks in subsequent months. An OPEC statement issued after oil ministers ended their meeting early Wednesday said the organization agreed to produce 28.8 million barrels a day. OPEC President Chakib Khelil said that quota in effect meant that member countries had agreed to cut back 520,000 barrels a day in overproduction == == a cut of this size can make a difference. If it doesnt put prices higher, or at least stabilise, there may be more cuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted September 14, 2008 Report Share Posted September 14, 2008 oil shortages begin "Up to tomorrow (Sunday) we have guaranteed flights, but not on Monday because no-one will supply us with kerosene," Fantozzi said, according to union sources quoted by Italian news agencies" http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080913/ts_af...er_080913192954 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted September 15, 2008 Report Share Posted September 15, 2008 oil shortages begin "Up to tomorrow (Sunday) we have guaranteed flights, but not on Monday because no-one will supply us with kerosene," Fantozzi said, according to union sources quoted by Italian news agencies" http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080913/ts_af...er_080913192954 Yes but is the demand destruction now going to takeover and being reflected in the sinking prices? Don't trade oil, just watching the price though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted September 25, 2008 Report Share Posted September 25, 2008 my take on oil here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted September 29, 2008 Report Share Posted September 29, 2008 oil update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted September 29, 2008 Report Share Posted September 29, 2008 95 is a very good number, and markets are so volatile, today they dollar bullish, tomorrow they may be pricing oil depletion, good oportunities do not last long time p.s. and it is also a fib point! (as i saw in my previous post) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted September 30, 2008 Report Share Posted September 30, 2008 Bubb, do you have any views on POO at the moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted September 30, 2008 Report Share Posted September 30, 2008 Bubb, do you have any views on POO at the moment? Yes, Dr Bubb, please comment on the subject. Here's what I see after today session Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 Yes, Dr Bubb, please comment on the subject. Here's what I see after today session Looks like the uptrend didn't pan out, but is the drop to $89 today a new double bottom (to the $90 on 16/9)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 Looks like the uptrend didn't pan out, but is the drop to $89 today a new double bottom (to the $90 on 16/9)? yep, my analysis on oil has been a childplay until now. here is the real thing: 1. First we check the monthly, and the monthly has no signs of a bottom yet, it looks really bad: Now that we found out that we are STILL IN THE 'A' fase (yes!!!) , we will find the 'A' first. 2. Weekly: 3. And finaly, the daily: Conclusion: we are close to the 'A' fase, I still have to work on the 'B', and 'C' but i will post the progress so far made. edit: now I don't laugh at Tim Woods when he says 40 bucks oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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