Alf Field's Elliot Wave Analysis on Gold

[cbs7]

I found some good EW analysis on gold recently by Alf Field. I've not read all his past articles, but he correctly predicted the first leg up in gold back in 2001 and seems to be in tune with the market. I can't comfortably follow other Elliot Wave analysts who have been calling tops in gold all the way up the bull market. Anyway according to Alf Field's most recent article he thinks we are in corrective Wave 2 of Major Wave 3 which started at $560 and he projects a minimum target of around $1600 , more likely higher

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/field032408.html

 

He thinks we will soon experience wave 3 of Wave 3 which in Elliot Wave could be one of the strongest and most violent. Perhaps this is what will kick start the juniors? I'm also guessing it could coincide with major new concerns about counterparty risk between the banks or perhaps the revelation of credit card subprime now that the pros have offloaded Visa into public hands...

 

There is also a good summary of Alf's work on gold so far at

 

http://www.cycle-of-time.net/gold.htm

 

[Gatesy]

I found some good EW analysis on gold recently by Alf Field. I've not read all his past articles, but he correctly predicted the first leg up in gold back in 2001 and seems to be in tune with the market. I can't comfortably follow other Elliot Wave analysts who have been calling tops in gold all the way up the bull market. Anyway according to Alf Field's most recent article he thinks we are in corrective Wave 2 of Major Wave 3 which started at $560 and he projects a minimum target of around $1600 , more likely higher

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/field032408.html

 

He thinks we will soon experience wave 3 of Wave 3 which in Elliot Wave could be one of the strongest and most violent. Perhaps this is what will kick start the juniors? I'm also guessing it could coincide with major new concerns about counterparty risk between the banks or perhaps the revelation of credit card subprime now that the pros have offloaded Visa into public hands...

 

There is also a good summary of Alf's work on gold so far at

 

http://www.cycle-of-time.net/gold.htm

 

Great post cbs; this certainly gives something to chew on ! To be honest I've been looking for something a little more "solid" on the numbers forecasts for a little while and this adds useful content to the cause. Cheers

 

[drbubb]

He thinks we will soon experience wave 3 of Wave 3 which in Elliot Wave could be one of the strongest and most violent. Perhaps this is what will kick start the juniors?

 

It is possible

 

 

The volume on the drop from $1030 was a bit worrying to me,

But the market has already done the minimum correction that it needs to start a new upmove.

 

However, this correction may wind up being more complex, and take more time

 

[cbs7]

It is possible

 

 

The volume on the drop from $1030 was a bit worrying to me,

But the market has already done the minimum correction that it needs to start a new upmove.

 

However, this correction may wind up being more complex, and take more time

 

I agree Bubb. I followed up on Alf Field's work and came up with a potential a-b-c corrective count

 

17/03/2008 20/03/2008 A $1,011 $920 -$91 -9.0%

20/03/2008 27/03/2008 B $920 $949 $29 3.2%

27/03/2008 01/04/2008 C $949 $882 -$67 -7.1%

 

On the April contract the figures for the decline are greater with A declining $1033.50 to $904.30 (-12.5%) and C declining $955.20 to $872 (-8.7%), giving a total 15.6% decline which would seem significant enough for a correction. The main problem I can see is that this would mean the timescale for this correction would be less than a month, although in many ways the speed of gold's fall after the BSC bailout was extremely fast so this could be the explanation.

 

When I tried to breakdown each a-b-c wave into its 5 or 3 minor waves on the hourly chart of the April Contract I found it was impossible to keep A or C within a channel, which I would have thought would be possible when going down to this level. This makes me wonder whether there is something wrong with the count and as you say there could be a more complex correction at work.

[Gatesy]

Anyone done anymore thinking/research on AF's hypothesis? I've spent some time going through his older articles on gold eagle and he does seem to have read things fairly well so far. Albeit his "high" targets have been somewhat short of the eventual highs achieved by the market.

 

My main concern from here on in is his analysis compared with Robert Prechter. Anyone get any views on why these are at odds and how this might be resolved?

[cbs7]

Anyone done anymore thinking/research on AF's hypothesis? I've spent some time going through his older articles on gold eagle and he does seem to have read things fairly well so far. Albeit his "high" targets have been somewhat short of the eventual highs achieved by the market.

 

My main concern from here on in is his analysis compared with Robert Prechter. Anyone get any views on why these are at odds and how this might be resolved?

 

There is a new article out from AF

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/field050108.html

 

I think he has a good point, the main alternative being that the correction we are in still has longer to run. EW seems to be very difficult for pinpointing the exact end of a correction until after the event.

 

I personally feel Precter's views on gold are likely to be wrong. He has on the one hand constantly called a top in gold all the way up the bull market. At the same time he likes to demonstrate how he was right all along about the Dow Jones being in a bear market since 2000 by measuring it in Gold. Although I think Prechter has a lot of interesting stuff to say I find this sort of approach to gold intellectually dishonest, as he is trying to be bearish and bullish at the same time. I don't think it is good to pay too much attention to someone who has been consistently wrong on a market - my feeling is that it suggests he doesn't have a good handle on the market.

 

He also has major fault for a technical analyst which is that he rarely seems to admit being wrong or flexible enough to change his opinion when his analysis has turned out wrong. If anything when trading or investing an analyst must remain humble and accept that the market will do whatever it wants regardless of grand predictions.