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GOLD Investment, & trading / April 2008 : #2

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(from the GOLD thread on Advfn):

 

energyi - 31 Mar'08 - 18:22 - #37351

 

Gold is doing what it NEEDS TO DO, ie retest the recent lows.

 

And (so far) it is doing so on lightish volume. THAT IS GOOD

 

GLD (gold's etf) ... update : 6months-Daily : 3mos-daily : Intraday-10days : GBS-intraday

bigtq1.gif

 

= == ==

 

The March GOLD Discussion thread, had

 

posts : 3,063 / started by: G0ldfinger // Hits : 76,163

 

A new thread each month makes it Far easier to find old posts.

It's a GEI tradition. I hope peopel do not mind.

If you do, let's discuss it

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QUOTE (wren @ Mar 31 2008, 12:33 PM)

(30 March 2008) Technically Speaking with Burak is as follows for both silver and gold :

 

Short term: BEARISH

Medium term: NEUTRAL

Long term: BULLISH

 

Link here:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/burak033008.html

=====

 

So, an ideal time to be average-buying.

= says GF

 

 

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I think you spoke a bit too soon....

gold.gif

 

 

Looks like we got the capitulation. :(

 

I'm not sure we're done yet. Could we get a test of $900 today?

 

We haven't really bounced yet either, so we could have further to go. I haven't seen the volume but I'd imagine it's going to be quite large and sustained. Time for caution methinks.

= says M.

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I'm lining up to add to my core position below $910. The only thing that concerns me is the speed with which we've fallen so far.

 

I'm almost 100% sure we'll get down to $905 over the next few days, even if it is only for a few seconds, before the journey back to the old highs and beyond begins again. Doesn't stop me feeling nervous about buying though. :unsure:

 

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So, an ideal time to be average-buying.

Yes, if I had a large pile of cash I would consider cost-averaging over a multi-week time period.

 

This is a healthy correction and it may go lower in the coming couple of months, I feel, but as always who knows?

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Heh, didn't see the April thread, so I hope you'll excuse the double post.

 

Anyway, I agree with Bubb and have been expecting this move. The only thing that concerns me is the speed with which we've fallen so far, but I'm still lining up to add to my core position around the $905 mark.

 

I'm almost 100% sure we'll get down to $905 over the next few days, even if it is only for a few seconds, before the journey back to the old highs and beyond begins again. Doesn't stop me feeling nervous about buying, but if gold wants to surprise to the downside, then so be it, I'll have called it wrong in the short term but the medium/long term price should prove me right in the end.

 

As always, vigilance is the key, if I see something I don't like then I won't hesitate to cancel the buy. Best of luck guys, I wish you all a successful April.

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A new thread each month makes it Far easier to find old posts.

It's a GEI tradition. I hope peopel do not mind.

Yes, this is the way. Maybe you should lock the old thread now, as your post and link are clear.

 

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Heh, didn't see the April thread, so I hope you'll excuse the double post.

 

Anyway, I agree with Bubb and have been expecting this move. The only thing that concerns me is the speed with which we've fallen so far, but I'm still lining up to add to my core position around the $905 mark.

 

I'm almost 100% sure we'll get down to $905 over the next few days, even if it is only for a few seconds...

 

The volume is alot LESS on this drop, thank good ness !

 

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Monetization of MBSs and the price gold (March 31, 2008)

 

Many observers have recently commented on what it means when the US Federal Reserve effectively takes mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) on their balance sheet. Notably, Jim Sinclair, the legendary gold trader and founder of JSMineset, has repeatedly done so. In the following, we have a look at a very simple example that demonstrates the possible devastation in the Fed's balance sheet and the effect on the price of gold when such MBSs are taken on at almost face value when at the same time the markets would price them at much lower levels. ...

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_analysis.html#F6

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Long term trend line at $915/6 just breached. Could get to $905 in the next few hours now.

 

Edit: I hadn't been watching oil, it's flirting with $100. Makes me feel strangely bullish for some reason.

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More on the gold lease rates, don't think this has been posted:

 

http://www.gata.org/node/6188

 

"In the past few days a strange thing has happened. Australia's The Privateer says, "the shorter term (one and two-month) rates have actually gone into negative territory this week."

 

In other words, gold is being supplied to the market by the central banks. The Privateer goes on: "We do not recall a previous instance of this, and there certainly has not been one since the cold bull market began in 2001-02. ...

 

"We have not -- until now -- seen a situation in which the central banks are actually paying the bullion banks, hedge funds, gold miners, et al. to borrow the stuff. And please don't forget that, in this context, leasing gold is actually 'shorting' gold. Gold is not 'leased' to be hoarded; it is 'leased' to be sold for something that pays a far higher rate of interest. ... The practice of 'leasing gold -- and silver' by the central banks has been one of their best means of suppressing the prices of these precious metals for a long time."

 

Interestingly The Privateer's wonderful $US 5x3 Point and figure chart withstood this week's slump. See chart:

 

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html

 

Goldbug conclusion: Central banks, led surreptitiously by the Fed, are supplying physical gold to the market. And wise heads like the Indians are buying it."

 

Question is though - what is being bought?

 

SafeBetter

 

 

 

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DrB ... whilst we're discussing "admin", is there any reason the site's clock has moved back 5 hours? All posts are appearing 5hrs behind for me (and other posters).

 

Are we off to the East Coast for a holiday? ... or does this just reflect the global nature of the site - each time zone gets to host the site for a month? :)

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Long term trend line at $915/6 just breached. Could get to $905 in the next few hours now.

 

Edit: I hadn't been watching oil, it's flirting with $100. Makes me feel strangely bullish for some reason.

If Zapata George is right and oil will go to $160 next week, what will that mean for gold?

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If Zapata George is right and oil will go to $160 next week, what will that mean for gold?

I'm not sure if it will be 1 week but should news of fundamental supply shortgages break, oil is going to take off vertically.

 

$160 oil means gold goes to $1200 minimum.

 

It's interesting to to see gold bounce off the trend line. Let's see if what happens over night.

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As I said, America’s financial crises have been getting bigger. A decade ago, the market disruption that followed the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management was considered a major, scary event; but compared with the current earthquake, the L.T.C.M. crisis was a minor tremor.

 

If we don’t reform the system this time, the next crisis could well be even bigger. And I, for one, really don’t want to live through a replay of the 1930s.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/31/opinion/...amp;oref=slogin

 

Krugman - the only Austrian economist writing in the NYTimes?

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Where is that statistic about the retail market having been net seelers of gold in only two of the last 40 or so years?

Puplave often quotes it.

 

Market oracle twit should read it

 

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Hello,

 

Sorry if this has been answered elsewhere or is common knowledge, but can anyone help me out with the answers to a couple of questions I have? Assuming you read this far...

 

i) I have been wondering how the spot price of gold is derived. There are many mining companies, there are many bullion dealers and many buyers. How is the entire supply side of this equation able to coordinate a single global price for gold regardless of currency?

 

ii) Given people lease gold to short the market, what's to stop this process going on indeffinetly? i.e. if gold is never sold in this transaction, then the owner can lease it time after time, what's to prevent the CB's from repressing the spot price forever?

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