Jump to content

Recommended Posts

A few notes from Richard Russell in the FSN interview:

 

- Dow theory is still relevant as ever.

 

- Stocks are overvalued (Dow and S&P). Dow wrote when the average dividend yield is less than 3.5% stocks are overvalued.

 

- Bonds are in a bubble, and the Dollar is in a bear market. Why are people piling into treasuries in a Dollar bear market??

 

- Astonished to hear Fed say "we don't have enough inflation".

 

- Very close to QEII to push away from deflation.

 

- During the Great Depression there was no question about the Dollar. The Dollar was as good as gold, only no one had any. Main difference to today is questions about the Dollar, that's why money goes into gold. You can't sit confidently on cash as in the Great Depression.

 

- Always had real doubts about fiat currency. Fiat is a fraud, gold is constitutional money, maybe silver. Money by fiat is immoral, no one sweat for it.

 

- There are two parties: one who never bought gold and wants it to correct, and another one who has gold and is afraid it might correct. Too many people are calling for a correction. In a real bull market you don't usually get a good chance to come in on it. I don't think we get anything like a real good correction. Game changers: CBs are now buying gold, gold ATMs/easy access. Will alert people to that gold is a real currency.

 

- The third speculative phase of the gold bull market is coming, where the public comes in with both feet, where it blows of with a huge move.

 

- Cats and dogs of the gold shares will blow off on the upside as the big companies (Newmont etc.) will buy the little ones for their reserves.

 

- A "hard rain" is coming. Kids won't be better off than their parents. Income will be hard to come by. China will be world leader. Collapse of fiat currencies, dollar will lose reserve status.

 

- Gold is still a great value today. Lesson for life: find great values.

 

- With a great item, don't trade too much. Sometimes you make the most money just sitting.

 

- Best piece of advice he has to offer: Load up with gold, and be patient. We're seeing the beginning of the end with fiat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There are two parties: one who never bought gold and wants it to correct, and another one who has gold and is afraid it might correct.

 

I do not know about you, but I belong to another group who does not care about the price of gold prior to purchasing it and does not care even if it corrects. There are many, I am sure, like me. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

save-1.gif

 

 

I prefer seeing gold slowly and steadily strengthening. It looks like the volatility may have died down a bit in the past couple of years, with the gold price increasing at a rate more similiar to earlier years.

 

During the early years, gold was hardly on the radar. When it did show up, most weren't sure what to make of it. I think it's safe to say that gold has now established itself as a prime currency.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't agree with Roman's want to see a steady 20% per year or think that is what is happening. Below is a log chart which shows very clearly that the rate of change is increasing as we get further into this bull. IMO this is to be expected, the rate of change should almost be straight up in the final mania stage.

 

20101012-pmek7cy99ercstbb955hcjwryh.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

''The IRA are targeting the Bankers now. Why? Because the Bankers are the Terrorists''

 

''The IMF and the rest of the world is gonna drop kick the US through the goal posts into their sea of debt''

 

Never a dull moment with Max Keiser.

 

The guy 'rocks'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Goldman tells clients to buy paper gold.

 

Alarm bells are ringing everywhere as Goldman (which joins UniCredit in boosting its gold price target) may have just picked the short-term top in gold, after it revised its 12 month target from $1,365 to $1,650. And while David Greely's track record is nowhere near as atrocious as that of Goldman's FX team which manages to top tick the EURUSD every single time, the fact that Goldman is now opening Long Gold recommendations (to go with its current trading recommendations of long Corn, Copper, Platinum and WTI) is reason for big worry. Recall which bank was getting its clients to go all in in crude 2008 when oil was $140+. We would be very cautious when Goldman is on "your" side of the trade. Nonetheless, the firm is pretty much spot on "We believe that a return to quantitative easing will act as a strong catalyst to carry gold prices to even higher levels."

 

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-t...-1650-silver-27

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Those who have been reading my posts over the last few years will remember this graph. Gold/GBP still seems to be fitting this exponential curve on a log graph!

 

20101011-kudugfanyym7g682sg6a3ncnr.jpg

 

According to this curve then it appears to say gold in GBP has to be higher than £850 3 months from now otherwise the price will have pierced this curve it appears to be following. Would you say that's about right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
According to this curve then it appears to say gold in GBP has to be higher than £850 3 months from now otherwise the price will have pierced this curve it appears to be following. Would you say that's about right?

Yes I do think it will be higher than £850 by January 2011. I have been posting that chart for over two years and keep updating it showing that it still fits.

 

The straight up part of the graph is in a couple of years. B)

 

I don't understand why everyone is so bearish at the moment, this is what you have all been waiting for. :D

 

If I am wrong I will be the first one to admit it, but I haven't been yet. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You gotta be in it to win it.

Don't you mean GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT! :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Because sitting on top of a rocket is actually quite scary?

It has been said many times before that this bull will shake off most riders, only the bravest will manage to hold on. Hold tight and don't sell until the fundamental reasons for the gold bull run change.

 

There will always be loads of top callers and volatility but the fundamentals should be what guides you.

 

1 - Negative Interest Rates (true inflation in the price of goods being above the rate of interest that can be earned)

 

2 - Central Banks becoming net buyers (CB's have been making up the supply deficit for years)

 

3 - The massive short positions of the bullion banks (these will need to be bought back at some point)

 

4 - Leasing of the gold reserves by the central banks (a lot more gold is listed as being on reserve than actually is)

 

5 - Quantitative Easing (as more money gets printed more precious metals can't be)

 

6 - Desire from people to return to a stable currency (people are getting fed up with seeing the hard work being eroded away)

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Because sitting on top of a rocket is actually quite scary?

I just see it as a rising tide.... with the odd large wave now and then. Perfectly regular event, observant of the laws of nature. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

America should open its vaults and sell gold

Published: October 12 2010 14:01 | Last updated: October 12 2010 14:01

 

Gold is back in the news. Its price is soaring in what some analysts say is a reflection of a weak economy and a lack of confidence in government policies. Naturally, investors are looking at a new sure thing in the expectation that prices will continue upward. My advice to the US government, however, is that this may be the best time – to sell. Doing so would help President Barack Obama and Congress reduce indebtedness, at little cost.

 

It is an article of faith in bullion markets that the US will be the last country to dispose of its gold stock. For 30 years it has had a no-net-sales policy for reasons ranging from resistance by US gold-producing interests to concerns about the international monetary system. That assumption may remain plausible. Yet the administration has an obligation to re-examine its policy.

 

The market price of gold has risen for more than a decade propelled by low interest rates, the hype of the bullion dealers (holding large inventories) and no doubt the normal amount of fraud and misinformation accompanying asset price bubbles. The Financial Times has reported that the precious metals industry expects the price to increase by a further 11 per cent over the next year.</H4>Meanwhile, the US Treasury holds 261.5m fine troy ounces of gold. The government has been sitting on it since the Great Depression, receiving no return. At the current market price of $1,300 per ounce, the US gold stock is worth $340bn. The Treasury secretary, with the approval of the president, has the power to sell (and buy) gold on terms that the secretary considers most beneficial to the public interest. Revenues from sales must be used to reduce the national debt.

 

If the US were to sell its entire gold stock at the current market price, it would reduce the gross government debt by 2¼ per cent of gross domestic product. (US net government debt would decline by essentially the same amount because the US gold stock, listed as an asset on the balance sheet, is valued at only $42.22 an ounce.) Based on the average interest cost from 2005 to 2008, this reduction in debt would trim the budget deficit by $15bn annually. Thus, the Obama administration would be doing something about the US fiscal debt and deficit without reducing near-term support for the ailing economy.

 

This proposal has other benefits too. First, the US would be obeying the maxim to buy low and sell high. Second, it would be performing a socially useful function. Demand for gold exceeds normal production, driving up the price. To the extent that the gold craze is being fed by concern (rational or irrational) about government policies, public welfare would be enhanced by giving citizens something tangible to hang around their necks or place in safe deposit boxes. Third, if the price is a bubble, as seems likely, the sooner it is burst the better for the average investor.

 

Some people point to possible costs. Aside from political pressures from those who want to protect the value of their holdings, above or below ground, two principal arguments are made against US gold sales. The first is that they would disrupt the market. But the US can be cautious in its sales, avoiding disruption of the sales programmes of other countries, as it has in the past. There is little risk. In recent years, sales under the Central Bank Gold Agreement have dwindled, and some other central banks are buying gold. (The US is not a party to the agreement.) Also the International Monetary Fund has completed more than three-quarters of its own planned sales of 403.3 metric tons.

 

Another counter argument is that the US should hold on to its stock in anticipation of a return – by itself alone or with other nations – to a monetary system based on gold. But returning to the gold standard would reinstate a system associated with unstable prices, wages, output and employment. It has not existed for a century; and will not make a comeback. Official discussions of the reform of the international monetary system do not include any advocates of a return to gold, and the IMF articles of agreement prohibit it. The sooner thoughts of such a return are laid to rest, the better. A related argument is to keep the US gold stock as a "rainy day" precaution. But after the recent economic and financial crisis and with the prospect of misery for several more years, how much more rain must pour before the US acts?

 

The writer is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

This is all you need to know about the fool who wrote that article in London's City Propaganda rubbish FT (aka toilet paper in the trade).

 

Edwin Truman:

 

From 1977 to 1998 Truman directed the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve System

 

From 1983 to 1998 he was a staff economist for the Federal Open Market Committee.

 

In December 1998, President Bill Clinton, appointed Truman Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury for International Affairs.

 

In 2001, he joined the Peterson Institute for International Economics as a Senior Fellow.

 

In 2009, he was recruited by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner as a temporary advisor to develop policies for the April 2009 G-20 London summit[4]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have just been researching the author of the article and reading some of the comments below it. Someone is certainly spooked at the current gold price. While the article is generally laughable, perhaps we can gleam that the opposite of what it purports to be the way forward is actually the way forward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have just been researching the author of the article and reading some of the comments below it. Someone is certainly spooked at the current gold price. While the article is generally laughable, perhaps we can gleam that the opposite of what it purports to be the way forward is actually the way forward.

 

The FT (Fiction Times) is propaganda for the city of London and the rest of the spivs and gangsters worldwide.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×