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Projections obtained from stochastic simulation (as of 26/08/10):

Horizon: 1a

95%-quantile: $ 3,034

50%-quantile: $ 1,670

5%-quantile: $ 914

 

;)

 

I'm still hanging in there.

 

Great gold and silver performance this summer.

 

I think this autumn will be very interesting.

Physical market for both appears very tight.

 

Nick

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Projections are useless if they're more than 6 months in advance (and even then they're only slightly less useless!)

Nobody knows the future.

There are no certainties, but there are educated guesses.

 

Prediction would be a better word to use than projection [which has a more negative connotation, where we project our desires/ wishes/ prejudices onto the world].

 

If one is going to be an investor, this presupposes that you can make rational predictions - from observance of trends or fundamental analysis - on how specific asset classes are likely to perform in the future. Predictions are often based on theory, which also provides a feed back loop; if the theory is wrong so too will the predictions be... hence the rational investor will adapt their theory/ predictions to the real world.

 

Of course there is no certainty here, as there isn't with any prediction. The difference between the investor and the gambler is the use of reason and method.

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People are simply people, and not reducible to something else [everything is what it is and not another thing]. Reducing a person to something else is dehumanizing.

 

:blink::rolleyes::huh:

 

Oh, and finally...

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

There are so many words that are appropriate as an answer to that, and not one of them is possible without me deserving being banned.

 

Let's just say, I'm laughing my socks off. The ignorance of the Human race never ceases to amuse me.

 

I'm going to add that reply to my list of quotes. When I want a good laugh, I'll be able to find it straight away.

 

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:blink::rolleyes::huh:

 

Oh, and finally...

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

There are so many words that are appropriate as an answer to that, and not one of them is possible without me deserving being banned.

 

Let's just say, I'm laughing my socks off. The ignorance of the Human race never ceases to amuse me.

 

I'm going to add that reply to my list of quotes. When I want a good laugh, I'll be able to find it straight away.

Ignorance takes many different forms. One such form is the attempt through either philosophy or science to reduce human nature to something more basic... something less human...more explanatory and predictable. Arrogance is often combined with ignorance here.

 

The method always involves the idea of substance [the underlying reality]. Why this should be so probably reflects the way language works; there is always a subject to which predicates belong.... this is then projected into metaphyics... or physics [the most modern philosophy recognizes this as a "language game"].

 

So with the idea of substance we had monists, pantheists, dualists, physicalists, nihilists.....

 

The point is that it makes perfect sense to just say a person is irreducibly a person [or anything is just what it is]... because any attempt to find the "reality" behind the appearances is in reality a fiction. A person remains "unknowable".. and not an object of knowledge... to be manipulated at will. As far back as Francis Bacon it had been suspected scientific knowledge was more about power [power can also be "subjective/ ideal" insofar as a form of "knowledge" dominates our imagination/ culture. Knowledge can create just as much awe in a population as a royal scepter ever could].

 

As for science, it is just about the mathematization of appearances... and then creating useful pragmatic "as if" working hypotheses that are also inherently fictional. This gains us an ambiguous power over the environment. Less ambiguous is the nature of the power when it pretends to "see through" ourselves. A good healthy skepticism may enable you to laugh at the pretensions of science, of whatever form, as an antidote to dogma. :)

 

Freedom consists primarily in freedom of the mind.

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goldprojection.PNG

 

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/demand-fo...d=rss&rss=1

 

Demand for gold surges 36% in the second quarter

 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold demand reached 1,050.3 metric tons in the second quarter, 36% higher than the same quarter in 2009, mostly thanks to

soaring investment demand,

a report from the World Gold Council showed early Wednesday.

 

Economic uncertainties around the world are expected to provide continued support for gold, said the council, an industry group backed by leading gold mining companies.

 

These concerns led investors to gobble up gold in the second quarter, the World Gold Council said. Demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds rose 414% compared to the second quarter of 2009. Retail investment demand rose 29% in the same period

 

 

BUY ONLY PHYSICAL GOLD AND TAKE POSSESSION NOT ETF (EASY TO FORGET) OR OTHER PAPER ILLUSIONS.

 

opticalillusion.jpg

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I've started my own blog in the appropriate GEI section containing lots of PM-orientated charts

 

See:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry181049

 

One thing I have looked at is the price action in days leading up to, and after, an options expiry date. This is for the past 3 and 10 years.

 

future dates:

 

optionsexp.jpg

 

Daily change in USD gold price around options expiry date - past 3 years and 10 years

 

last3f.jpg

 

last10.jpg

 

I wish there was more of a pattern here - but alas not. It appears any manipulation around the expiry date is only occasional (and thus, produces a random pattern when averaged over years), with no systematic takedown obvious.

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I've started my own blog in the appropriate GEI section containing lots of PM-orientated charts

 

See:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry181049

 

One thing I have looked at is the price action in days leading up to, and after, an options expiry date. This is for the past 3 and 10 years.

 

future dates:

 

I wish there was more of a pattern here - but alas not. It appears any manipulation around the expiry date is only occasional (and thus, produces a random pattern when averaged over years), with no systematic takedown obvious.

Good stuff! I suspected as much. I think way too much is made by some out of the influence option expiry dates exert on prices.

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I've started my own blog in the appropriate GEI section containing lots of PM-orientated charts

 

See:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry181049

 

One thing I have looked at is the price action in days leading up to, and after, an options expiry date. This is for the past 3 and 10 years.

 

future dates:

 

optionsexp.jpg

 

Daily change in USD gold price around options expiry date - past 3 years and 10 years

 

last3f.jpg

 

last10.jpg

 

I wish there was more of a pattern here - but alas not. It appears any manipulation around the expiry date is only occasional (and thus, produces a random pattern when averaged over years), with no systematic takedown obvious.

 

I've started buying in again. I don't think there will be a dip for a while that will be big enough to justify the risk of holding the cash. September is nearly here after all...

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http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsAugu...010_update.html

 

Comex Gold Rallies on Bargain Hunting, Weakening U.S. Dollar

 

31 August 2010, 9:11 a.m.

 

 

Comex gold futures have pushed higher and are trading near the daily high Tuesday morning. December gold last traded up $7.30 an ounce at $1,246.70.

Bargain-hunting buying interest on a dip in prices and a weakening U.S.

dollar index are lifting the gold market higher. A rebound in crude oil prices from its lower price levels is also supporting buying interest in the precious metals. Gold is also seeing some safe-haven-related buying support Tuesday morning on some trader notions that Tuesday afternoon's FOMC statement from the Federal Reserve will contain a more downbeat assessment of the U.S. economy.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Dont you just love the headlines BARGAIN HUNTING AT $1246.70.

I couldnt agree more it is still a bargain even though alot of gei posters are/were waiting for a drop in AUGUST only 9 hours left.?????

 

DrBubb

Tri-Millennium Guru

Posts: 28,128

Joined: 17-March 06

From: Hong Kong & London

Member No.: 2

 

Jul 29 2010, 08:23 AM

I repeat my oft-repeated forecast: Gold will be below $1100 in August.

Wait until then to buy=

 

I HOPE NO ONE FOLLOWED THE PIED PIPER I MEAN THE GOOD DR ON THIS FORECAST.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I HOPE NO ONE FOLLOWED THE PIED PIPER I MEAN THE GOOD DR ON THIS FORECAST.

You always got to make sure you follow the right Pied Piper, because there are many of them.

 

Besides Bubb's forecast, what happened to Hendry's $600? :lol:

 

EDIT: I feel sorry for all the grannies who cashed out their gold on that sort of advice. On the other hand, it makes cheaper purchases for me.

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http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-3...e-inflates.html

 

 

Gold Rallying to $1,500 as Soros’s Bubble Inflates

 

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Investors are accumulating enough bullion to fill Switzerland’s vaults twice over as gold’s most- accurate forecasters say the longest rally in at least nine decades has further to go no matter what the economy holds.

 

Analysts raised their 2011 forecasts more than for any other precious metal the past two months, predicting a 10th annual advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The most widely held option on gold futures traded in New York is for $1,500 an ounce by December, or 18 percent more than the record $1,266.50 reached June 21. Holdings through bullion-backed exchange-traded products are already at more than 2,075 metric tons, within 0.1 percent of the all-time high.

 

Swiss Reserves

 

Buyers accumulated almost 278 tons of gold in 2010 across 10 ETPs tracked by Bloomberg, worth $10.4 billion at this year’s average price. Total holdings are almost twice Switzerland’s official reserves of 1,040 tons, data compiled by the World Gold Council show. ETP holdings reached a record 2,078 tons July 19, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

 

One of the biggest buyers has been Soros Fund Management LLC, which oversees about $25 billion. George Soros, who made $1 billion breaking the Bank of England’s defense of the pound in 1992, described gold as “the ultimate asset bubble” at the World Economic Forum’s January meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Buying at the start of a bubble is “rational,” he said. ;)

 

 

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"Gold Rallying to $1,500 as Soros’s Bubble Inflates"

 

What do others think of this language?

 

The question investors have to ask is gold in a bubble or in a bull market. If they think it's a bubble, there will always be a bias towards selling it at some point... getting out before the bubble bursts. If they think it's in bull market, they will continue to hold, and not be overly concerned as it climbs a "wall of worry" as all bull markets do.

 

That investors are worrying about what deflation means for gold, or whether gold is in a bubble, confirms to me it's climbing a wall of worry. :rolleyes:

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"Gold Rallying to $1,500 as Soros’s Bubble Inflates"

 

What do others think of this language?

Only the mainstream media morons (Bloomberg, Fortune) think that gold is in a bubble.

 

I also think that Soros never meant that gold was in a bubble, but that it might develop into one, e.g. from $10,000/oz onwards. ;) And, yes, it might then be the end game and in that sense "ultimate".

 

George Soros is clever enough to know that gold is nowhere near a bubble.

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Only the mainstream media morons (Bloomberg, Fortune) think that gold is in a bubble.

 

I also think that Soros never meant that gold was in a bubble, but that it might develop into one, e.g. from $10,000/oz onwards. ;) And, yes, it might then be the end game and in that sense "ultimate".

 

George Soros is clever enough to know that gold is nowhere near a bubble.

Yep, you also got to ask what Soros' intentions were when using "bubble" language given his theory of reflexivity. Was it his intention to manipulate the expectations of market participants? I'm kind of inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt given his age and philanthropic pursuits. :lol:

 

As for gold and bubbles, I don't think it is possible for gold to become a bubble; only assets are susceptible to getting into bubble prices, not prime currencies.

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"Gold Rallying to $1,500 as Soros’s Bubble Inflates"

 

What do others think of this language?

 

The question investors have to ask is gold in a bubble or in a bull market. If they think it's a bubble, there will always be a bias towards selling it at some point... getting out before the bubble bursts. If they think it's in bull market, they will continue to hold, and not be overly concerned as it climbs a "wall of worry" as all bull markets do.

 

That investors are worrying about what deflation means for gold, or whether gold is in a bubble, confirms to me it's climbing a wall of worry. :rolleyes:

 

Can someone explain how GOLD (de jure money) could ever be in a bubble.?

thanks.

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I must have missed that. Can you provide a quote?

 

HERE IS ONE FOR YOU JIM

 

absolutezero

 

View Member Profile Aug 24 2010, 09:49 AM Post #255

 

 

Centurion

 

 

Group: Members

Posts: 110

Joined: 3-November 09

Member No.: 3,456

 

 

 

I'm yet to be convinced that gold ISN'T in a bubble. I do have some but I'll not be buying more.

Seems to fit the classic 'Anatomy of a bubble' graph.

 

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This article from Mish in Jan 07 seems prescient given the gold / deflation story

 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...nd-k-cycle.html

 

Yes they might be prescient. However, listening to Bubb, Townsend and Mish, it was apparently to me that Mish was not really able to construct a very good argument. He seemed lost a few times and was himself unsure of what he was saying. I would like a proper inflationist argue with Mish and see if he can deconstruct the argument. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. ;)

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