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We'll see.... but if you extrapolate the current trend it only gets to 1300 odd by January. You would have to see some special fireworks to get to 1650.... but then there are better than even odds at the moment of double dip deleveraging... just to keep things interesting.

Gold Dow Jones ratio is your friend, especially if you are long one and short the other :rolleyes:

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The price of gold has soared in recent years, but experts warn that the bubble could burst all too easily

 

One of these "experts" who has sold out of gold was from the Jupiter Absolute Return Fund whose year to date performance is -1.76%. Whereas £gold is up circa 17% ytd.

 

Looks like he sold the one bit of his portfolio he shoulda kept.

 

 

 

 

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One of these "experts" who has sold out of gold was from the Jupiter Absolute Return Fund whose year to date performance is -1.76%. Whereas £gold is up circa 17% ytd.

 

Looks like he sold the one bit of his portfolio he shoulda kept.

Dude. :rolleyes:

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From:

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For me, something that always bugs me about philosophers is how unwilling they are to recognise and account for irrationality. For instance while reading your rant I was interested in the part about patterns - it's always seemed to me that a lot of what the human brain does is to look for patterns and narratives in the objective world. It is indeed good at doing this, but also many cases of irrationality arise from projecting patterns that aren't genuine (for instance numerology, if you think of the way it affected medieval thought in particular) and from clinging to previously observed patterns and narratives and then interpreting new facts in the light of them (for instance when you get two opposing religious/national narratives you find the two sides of the argument interpret all facts in the light of their previous assumptions).

 

Philosophers tend to think they are extremely rational and that all problems have an ultrarational solution so they are uncomfortable with irrational thought.

 

That also leads me to question your last paragraph. Does knowing how the brain works necessarily teach us how to prevent silly ideas and myths? Perhaps it just explains why we are prone to such irrational behaviour?

 

I agree entirely :D

I knew I'd worded that last bit poorly. What I really meant was "knowing how the brain works would reduce the tendency of people to make up ideas about how we think, are creative etc".

I agree about being irrational, knowing we are, and why, might help, but I think most people will still be irrational. Positive/negative drawings are a simple example. You can see two different images in one drawing. Which is right? Both. It just depends what you see at the time.

What we see is what we interpret.

The thing about going down to the network level is that it becomes more like computation, and thus avoids the more generalised fluffy thinking, IMO.

 

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The thing about going down to the network level is that it becomes more like computation, and thus avoids the more generalised fluffy thinking, IMO.

Consider that faith in computation is what lead to the financial mess we are in today. First we had the economists assuming people were rational calculators. Then we had the quants and mathematic experts claiming to be able to manage risk by reducing it to mathematic formulae. Finally, traditional regulatory concerns were swept aside and seen as quaint "fluffy thinking" which stood in the way of progress and prosperity.

 

The primary error was not so much that the computations were wrong, but that people came to believe in the very idea that everything could be reduced to [and controlled by] computation. People are not computers.

 

You have to ask yourself - is today's so-called rationality about truth/ reality or power.

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It was option expiry today but no big swing downwards.

Maybe the manipulation is over?

It is not over the gold cartels bluff is just being called by the Chinese and Arabs;

 

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

 

Jim Willie reported to us with this:

 

Had a conversation with the erudite Jim Willie this morning. His sources tell him that the Chinese and Arabs are going after the gold and silver markets in London … with buying sprees every ten days. If so, the prices of gold and silver ought to go parabolic in the months ahead and probably much sooner. There is no way the LBMA crowd can cover their Ponzi-like fractional gold/silver exposure. If they have sold the same gold and silver to many multiples of parties, as we think they have, the LBMA bankers are going down … should the Arabs, Chinese, or anyone else be going after their physical holdings. They will be doomed. Jeff Christian will have to go into hiding.

 

Which was copied from Bill Murphy's Midas report.

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To add to that, Havey also mentions the return of backwardation:

In another stunning development for the first time in quite a while gold moved into backwardation on two consecutive days. Yesterday the backwardation from the August to Sept month was 50 cents.

 

Today it was 1.20 with the front month of August higher than the Sept. trading month. However you must be cognizant of the fact that August is a delivery month and Sept is a non delivery month.

 

I would like to see backwardation on the first 3 to 5 months to prove to me absolute shortage of metal and a possible default.

 

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2010/08/au...commentary.html

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Consider that faith in computation is what lead to the financial mess we are in today.

 

Faith in the ability to create a good enough system. And the mistake of ignoring chaos theory.

 

First we had the economists assuming people were rational calculators.

 

Did they? I didn't know that. Is it true?

 

Then we had the quants and mathematic experts claiming to be able to manage risk by reducing it to mathematic formulae.

 

Yes.

 

Finally, traditional regulatory concerns were swept aside and seen as quaint "fluffy thinking" which stood in the way of progress and prosperity.

 

Yes.

 

The primary error was not so much that the computations were wrong, but that people came to believe in the very idea that everything could be reduced to [and controlled by] computation.

 

Why can't they be reduced to computation?

 

People are not computers.

 

You will need to define "computer".

It might be simpler if you simply say what you think people are.

 

With my interpretation of your statement, which of course might be wrong, but is the common meaning of that statement, I would say "that is incorrect", and that that statement reminds me of this statement: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

 

In this case it would be rewritten something like this:

 

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand how our own brain works.

 

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Did they? I didn't know that. Is it true?

That's right. Friedman, who's dominated for decades, assumed people would be rational. People would be rational and not irrationally labour under the old form of money illusion. And then this "rational expectation" was equated with inflation expectation. The trouble is it is only investor's that have been schooled in monetarism that have inflation expectation today. :lol:

 

Monetarism and Money Illusion:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=176193

 

 

Why can't they be reduced to computation?

You will need to define "computer".

It might be simpler if you simply say what you think people are.

?

People are simply people, and not reducible to something else [everything is what it is and not another thing]. Reducing a person to something else is dehumanizing.

 

Philosophy/ science is the attempt to find a truer reality behind appearances. The reality turned out that this was always more about power [an ambiguous power] over the environment and populations than it was about some noble quest for truth. As you said, what a web we weave.

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can i have tonights winning lottery numbers please?

 

Not sure what your point is? I can give you projected ones (it says 'projection') but they may or may not be the right ones.

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Not sure what your point is? I can give you projected ones (it says 'projection') but they may or may not be the right ones.

Projections are useless if they're more than 6 months in advance (and even then they're only slightly less useless!)

Nobody knows the future.

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Absolute zero, is that your projection?

 

I had a look at the dictionary just to check my understanding of the word,

 

There are an interesting variety of meanings;

noun

1 an estimate or forecast of a future situation or trend based on a study of present ones : plans based on projections of slow but positive growth | population projection is essential for planning.

2 the presentation of an image on a surface, esp. a movie screen : quality illustrations for overhead projection.

• an image projected in such a way : the background projections featured humpback whales.

• the ability to make a sound, esp. the voice, heard at a distance : I taught him voice projection.

3 the presentation or promotion of someone or something in a particular way : the legal profession's projection of an image of altruism.

• a mental image viewed as reality : monsters can be understood as mental projections of mankind's fears.

• the unconscious transfer of one's own desires or emotions to another person : we protect the self by a number of defense mechanisms, including repression and projection.

4 a thing that extends outward from something else : the particle board covered all the sharp projections.

5 Geometry the action of projecting a figure.

6 the representation on a plane surface of any part of the surface of the earth or a celestial sphere.

• (also map projection) a method by which such representation may be done.

DERIVATIVES

projectionist |-ist| noun ( in sense 2).

ORIGIN mid 16th cent. (sense 6): from Latin projectio(n-), from proicere ‘throw forth’ (see project ).

 

 

It looks like number one is the one your are referring to.

 

"Projections are useless if they're more than 6 months in advance". The reason you equate projections with being useless is because in your mind projection equates to knowing the future. A projection is just an estimate of the future.

 

Eg I recently projected that the Japanese yen would go down - that projection turned out to be the opposite of "useless"

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Projections are useless if they're more than 6 months in advance (and even then they're only slightly less useless!)

Nobody knows the future.

 

You are a GP, aren't you? What do you say when a patient wants to know the prognosis of a disease and expected future survival ( morbidity and mortality)? Or do you say I can not predict beyond the next 6 months? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

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You are a GP, aren't you? What do you say when a patient wants to know the prognosis of a disease and expected future survival ( morbidity and mortality)? Or do you say I can not predict beyond the next 6 months? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

I'd say that with gold the "longer-than-6-months" part is the easy bit! Nothing has happened (or is likely to, imo) to change the big picture - we are debtably in the second phase of an epic bull market that has not yet gone parabolic.

In the mean time, (the "less-than-6-months" part of the prediction) - volatility remains high in almost all markets (FX, Commodities, Equities) and so that part to me is the debatably uncertain bit.

 

In summary, long term - just buy the dips.

 

EDIT there are a variety of calculations now emerging to give gold a fair price between $2400 and ~$10000 per ounce. For example, valuing external debt (USonly!) on terms of the US gold allegedly in storage, or simply inflation adjusting the last peak around $850 in the 80's.

I would expect $5000 will be reached (in todays dollars) over the next few years (5?).

 

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I'd say that with gold the "longer-than-6-months" part is the easy bit! Nothing has happened (or is likely to, imo) to change the big picture - we are debtably in the second phase of an epic bull market that has not yet gone parabolic.

In the mean time, (the "less-than-6-months" part of the prediction) - volatility remains high in almost all markets (FX, Commodities, Equities) and so that part to me is the debatably uncertain bit.

 

In summary, long term - just buy the dips.

 

EDIT there are a variety of calculations now emerging to give gold a fair price between $2400 and ~$10000 per ounce. For example, valuing external debt (USonly!) on terms of the US gold allegedly in storage, or simply inflation adjusting the last peak around $850 in the 80's.

I would expect $5000 will be reached (in todays dollars) over the next few years (5?).

 

Yes you are right. However, unless you are a trader, you are looking at the long term. Well I am in any way. I personally will not feel sad in any way if gold drops to under 500$/oz. It would be really good if that happens.

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You are a GP, aren't you? What do you say when a patient wants to know the prognosis of a disease and expected future survival ( morbidity and mortality)? Or do you say I can not predict beyond the next 6 months? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

No. I'm not a GP.

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Absolute zero, is that your projection?

 

I had a look at the dictionary just to check my understanding of the word,

 

There are an interesting variety of meanings;

noun

1 an estimate or forecast of a future situation or trend based on a study of present ones : plans based on projections of slow but positive growth | population projection is essential for planning.

2 the presentation of an image on a surface, esp. a movie screen : quality illustrations for overhead projection.

• an image projected in such a way : the background projections featured humpback whales.

• the ability to make a sound, esp. the voice, heard at a distance : I taught him voice projection.

3 the presentation or promotion of someone or something in a particular way : the legal profession's projection of an image of altruism.

• a mental image viewed as reality : monsters can be understood as mental projections of mankind's fears.

• the unconscious transfer of one's own desires or emotions to another person : we protect the self by a number of defense mechanisms, including repression and projection.

4 a thing that extends outward from something else : the particle board covered all the sharp projections.

5 Geometry the action of projecting a figure.

6 the representation on a plane surface of any part of the surface of the earth or a celestial sphere.

• (also map projection) a method by which such representation may be done.

DERIVATIVES

projectionist |-ist| noun ( in sense 2).

ORIGIN mid 16th cent. (sense 6): from Latin projectio(n-), from proicere ‘throw forth’ (see project ).

 

 

It looks like number one is the one your are referring to.

 

"Projections are useless if they're more than 6 months in advance". The reason you equate projections with being useless is because in your mind projection equates to knowing the future. A projection is just an estimate of the future.

 

Eg I recently projected that the Japanese yen would go down - that projection turned out to be the opposite of "useless"

Congratulations. You got lucky.

 

An estimate of the future where there are a massive number of variables that can ruin your projection within the next week alone is pointless and, dare I say, useless.

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Projections obtained from stochastic simulation (as of 26/08/10):

Horizon: 1a

95%-quantile: $ 3,034

50%-quantile: $ 1,670

5%-quantile: $ 914

 

;)

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Projections obtained from stochastic simulation (as of 26/08/10):

Horizon: 1a

95%-quantile: $ 3,034

50%-quantile: $ 1,670

5%-quantile: $ 914

 

;)

oh, go on- give us the fan chart! - what is Horizon: 1a? (12mo?)

 

 

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