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Does anyone know if Tom O'Brien will be buying back in here? He must be a little anxious after being in a 10 year bull run and then selling his position on the last spike. [i think he was looking for 1075]. I found that a bit odd at the time... why would you sell your whole position? Surely, he only sold a part.

 

I don't trade gold, but if I felt the need to then selling a little on a large spike wouldn't be that risky... as long as you were prepared to buy back in either on the dip at a profit, or if it doesn't dip much - as looks like the case here for O'Brien - buy back as it approaches where you sold [a stop-loss of sorts]. There would be no profit involved but at least your position in gold would be regained.

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I think gold/silver will only dip when/if stocks get hit. I heard we were going to have an Indian summer all through September.

My policy is just buy the dips and in Yen at least it hasn't been so bad. I wouldn't say no to a cheaper price...

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Its worth starting the averaging in process in GBP in my opinion. I'm expecting gold in GBP to touch the 50 MA to complete the seasonality trend of recent years, but it's not really worth the risk of missing a bottom by holding out any longer.

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p35504570828

Good call.

 

goodcall.gif

 

I made a similiar:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=178177

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Sounds somewhat similar to Martin Armstrong's approach. Fiat will still surprise everyone and go on a tear in either direction, all the while deprecating against real money. The problem with the dollar is that most foreign governments and central banks don't want it to die just yet (since they hold most of the stuff) so don't be surprised if they do as much as possible to keep it afloat. For instance, Armstrong believe we will see wild swings in the dollar. Although he didn't give any particular targets, it's entirely possible to see an instanity of the USDX at .100 with Gold at $2500. House, cars, boats etc will be very cheap in this scenario measured in dollars but they will also be much much cheaper measured in gold. Just my 50 pence.

That's interesting. Of course the logical outcome of increasing currency instability is government intervention along the lines of a new Bretton Woods down the road. I'm assuming Armstrong wouldn't care much for this as he is pretty much a free market fundamentalist. But then does it really matter what we think ought to happen on doctrinaire grounds? I reckon it's best to ask what is most likely to happen.

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Gold out-performing silver:

 

 

goldsilver-1.gif

 

 

save.gif

 

 

yen-3.gif

 

 

Looking at the above, the one to trade [if so inclined] on a spike would be gold/ pound. The pound depreciates against gold as it spikes; sell a bit of gold for pounds. When the pound bounces back and appreciates buy back gold. O'Brien should have sold for a major currency rather than a reserve currency. A reserve currency is best to hold in reserve in case we get the big dip.

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Gold looking bullish and on for a test of its dollar high, perhaps even in the week ahead......

 

I'm very unsure if it will get through or alternatively fall back before another test then follows in due course - and I am averaging in accordingly.

 

I agree with other posts on here - we have not seen much of a doldrums fall over the summer and the seasonal price increases are already here and seem early. Lots of uncertainty also regarding what will happen to gold following a possible stock market crash, the possibility of which is now being discussed everywhere in the financial news.

 

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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fake-afri...l-bank-bullion-

 

Add this one to the wtf files: a headline in Emirates 24/7 is sufficient to demonstrate what ridiculous proportions goldmania has reached in various parts of the world: "Tons of gold imports turn to dust on arrival. Gold imported into the UAE by traders and investors turned out to be fake on closer inspection." Thank god for "closer inspection." The total impact of such fake gold in the UAE alone: "over $200 million."And the scariest bit: "Recent media reports suggested that several million dollars worth of gold with the Ethiopian Central Bank turned out to be fake. These bars of gold turned out to be gold plated steel bars."

 

 

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I find gold as priced in GBP quite interesting. As a major currency, I don't think the pound will blow up, but will instead be very unstable as capital moves in and out. In contrast, gold should remain relatively stable against reserve currencies. This would lead to quite a volatile GBP price as we've already seen. The corrections are over 10%.

 

Having already a core overweight position in gold, I may look to put a smaller percentage of that to work trading pounds for gold.. with the aim of course to take profits in accumulating ounces. This could involve selling a bit when it spikes to around 1000 and buying again at around 850 or so.

 

 

bp.gif

 

 

Pound looks like it wants to head south again. No doubt followed once again by a decent bounce.

 

 

pound-2.gif

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I'm in London next weekend and want to buy some Sovs or Britannias as I don't have any gold coins. Can anyone recommend a bullion dealer in central London. Also, can you buy with a credit card? - I'd prefer not to have to change euros and carry cash.

 

thanks

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ATS Bullion Ltd are near Charing Cross station/Covent Garden. I've dealt with them a few times and they've been fine. Incidentally, they will also price match.

 

ATS Bullion Ltd

 

Payment can be made by small amounts of cash, or by debit card.

 

We do not accept credit cards for purchases of Bullion coins because of the commission involved.

 

If you are buying under £5000 worth of gold, we ask that you bring one form of photo ID with you. If you are purchasing over £5000 worth of gold in one transaction, or your purchases exceed £10000 in the course of a year, then you have to supply us with proof of ID to comply with HM Customs and Excise legislation

 

I'm in London next weekend and want to buy some Sovs or Britannias as I don't have any gold coins. Can anyone recommend a bullion dealer in central London. Also, can you buy with a credit card? - I'd prefer not to have to change euros and carry cash.

 

 

 

thanks

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I'm in London next weekend and want to buy some Sovs or Britannias as I don't have any gold coins. Can anyone recommend a bullion dealer in central London. Also, can you buy with a credit card? - I'd prefer not to have to change euros and carry cash.

 

thanks

 

+1 for ATS, very professional and friendly. You can always phone your order forward although all payements have to be made in cash / debit card. This is normal for the london physical market.

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+1 for ATS, very professional and friendly. You can always phone your order forward although all payements have to be made in cash / debit card. This is normal for the london physical market.

 

Thanks for the replies. My Hotel is close to the Strand so I'll call in on Friday. Let's hope spot price drops tomorrow!

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Try HattonGardenMetals.com

 

I have not used them in person but have bought off them by post. Also, someone on ADVFN, a long term member does use them in person and recommends them. I will say that they are only charging 6% over spot for sovereigns, less again, maybe only 3% over spot for Maples, Krugs.

 

This used to be a standard figure for gold coins but for instance CoinsInvestDirect.com in Germany used to be cheap but I have seen premiums of 10.5% onsovereigns with them recently.

 

I believe the front entrance is under another name, appearing as a jewellers? I don't know the address, their website must have it, along with a quote for coin prices for the am or pm fix. Try comparing their website price with whoever else you may use instead.

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All a bit too... Manichean for me. :)

 

That's pretty funny (and shows a misunderstanding) considering I'm a Bright:

 

http://www.the-brights.net/

 

Think about your own worldview to decide if it is free of supernatural or mystical deities, forces, and entities. If you decide that you fit the description above, then you are, by definition, a bright!

 

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It's a little disappointing seeing people on here still thinking/talking in terms of "the gold price".

If you stick in the modern misleading paradigm where all is based around fiat currencies, you'll also be stuck in a misleading thought process, IMO.

 

Announcing the Steve Netwriter Gold Currency Index Version 1 (SNGCI v1) 19th Aug 2010

http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3303

 

(ID5, I've finally done it :D )

 

Those who say "that gold price prediction is ridiculous" are really saying "that prediction of how far the US$ etc can fall is ridiculous".

I don't think so.

 

Let's stop this "how far or fast gold is going up" discussion, and instead talk about "how far/fast the US$ etc are going to fall".

 

By the way, did anyone spot this news:

 

Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX) will start trading gold futures with physical gold delivery on 31th Aug 2010

http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3298

 

Sounds significant to me.

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It's a little disappointing seeing people on here still thinking/talking in terms of "the gold price".

If you stick in the modern misleading paradigm where all is based around fiat currencies, you'll also be stuck in a misleading thought process, IMO.

 

Announcing the Steve Netwriter Gold Currency Index Version 1 (SNGCI v1) 19th Aug 2010

http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3303

 

(ID5, I've finally done it :D )

 

Those who say "that gold price prediction is ridiculous" are really saying "that prediction of how far the US$ etc can fall is ridiculous".

I don't think so.

 

Let's stop this "how far or fast gold is going up" discussion, and instead talk about "how far/fast the US$ etc are going to fall".

 

By the way, did anyone spot this news:

 

Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX) will start trading gold futures with physical gold delivery on 31th Aug 2010

http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3298

 

Sounds significant to me.

 

 

I agree with this but the problem is; the purchasing power of an ounce of gold fluctuates - say within a month, it may purchase 5 percent more or less than the nominal dollar price of an item. Within this short time frame, a loaf of bread or gallon of fuel will be the same or possibly a bit higher priced in dollars - so some get locked into thinking the Sun orbits the Earth! IMO, only when prices are rising visibly, monthly, will people (some) begin to use an ounce of gold as the reference point.

 

Even more confusingly, when very high inflation starts, the purchasing power of gold will increase faster than the decline of the fiat currency due to gold's universal store of wealth attributes being more valued.

 

Some refreshing insights on your blog BTW.

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I agree with this but the problem is; the purchasing power of an ounce of gold fluctuates - say within a month, it may purchase 5 percent more or less than the nominal dollar price of an item. Within this short time frame, a loaf of bread or gallon of fuel will be the same or possibly a bit higher priced in dollars - so some get locked into thinking the Sun orbits the Earth! IMO, only when prices are rising visibly, monthly, will people (some) begin to use an ounce of gold as the reference point.

 

Even more confusingly, when very high inflation starts, the purchasing power of gold will increase faster than the decline of the fiat currency due to gold's universal store of wealth attributes being more valued.

 

Some refreshing insights on your blog BTW.

 

What will be the mechanism for inflation in developed economies? Here's Andy Xie's take on it... call it "Boomerang inflation" [i'm not so sure about this myself for the forseeable future - five years or so -, and think a mix of a collapse the Chinese bubble, market destruction, and demand destruction might serve to counter-balance any upward pressure on prices say in US dollars and Yen.... pounds is another story]:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-17/c...y-andy-xie.html

Ideal Scenario

 

How will this all end? Ideally, before inflation takes hold in the U.S. and Europe, the costs in emerging economies will rise high enough for multinationals to invest and hire in the West again. I wouldn’t count on that. The average wage in the developed economies is 10 times that in emerging markets. There are five people in the latter for one in the former.

 

A more likely scenario is that the West will have to stop stimulus programs when inflation spreads to it from the emerging economies. The most immediate channel is through rising commodity prices. It’s a tax on the West to benefit emerging economies that produce raw materials. That’s the irony: The stimulus in the West can immediately bring harm to itself. It’s also the magic of globalization.

 

The prices of imported consumer goods will rise with increasing labor costs in emerging economies. China’s nominal GDP is growing at about 20 percent per year. The odds are that its labor costs will surge as its worker shortage bites.

 

Wage Blowout

 

Lastly, labor in the West will demand wage increases to compensate for current and future inflation. One may argue that high unemployment rates will keep wages in check. Think again. In the 1970s, the U.S. suffered a wage-price surge even with high unemployment because workers saw through the Fed’s “growth first and inflation be damned” intention.

 

In 2012, the Fed will run out of excuses not to raise interest rates. As the excess liquidity in the global economy will be gigantic by then, the tightening will probably trigger a global crisis as asset bubbles burst.

 

What really ails the West is declining competitiveness. Globalization is pitting the Wangs in China or Gandhis in India against the Smiths in the U.S. or Gonzalezes in Spain.

 

Multinationals such as General Electric Co. or Siemens AG decide on whom to hire. The Wangs and the Gandhis offer productivity but have little money. So they are willing to accept low wages to accumulate wealth. The Smiths and the Gonzalezes have wealth and won’t accept Third World wages. When their governments give them money to spend, their demand just makes the Wangs and the Gandhis richer and themselves poorer with rising national debt.

 

The West must wait for the Wangs and the Gandhis to become rich enough so that they demand Western wages and spend like the Smiths and Gonzalezes.

 

It is a long and painful process for the West. And there is no way around it.

 

 

AEP's latest. Similiar point, but asks if it will really be so easy to pass inflation on to the consumer this time:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-b...ging-wages.html

A report by Credit Suisse said the vast majority of US and European companies in China are expecting a "margin hit" over the next 12 months and fear they will not be able to pass on the costs to consumers, with the biggest worrries in electronics, clothing, and retail.

 

The bank said Footlocker, Liz Claiborne, and Office Depot would tip into outright loss in a worst-case scenario, defined as a 20pc rise in costs without any pass-through to customers.

...

It is unclear whether this will drive up inflation for imported goods in the West, reversing the benign phase of globalisation seen over the last fifteen years, or whether multinationals will adjust to constrained demand in the US, Europe, and Japan by slashing margins, or a mixture of the two.

...

The changing landscape has major implications for Chinese exporters, with an average profit margin of just 3pc. High-tech companies in wind power, solar, and transmission equipment that have recently broken into world markets will face stiffer headwinds. The Shanghai Composite Index of Chinese equities has been lagging all year on fears of a profit squeeze. The bourse is down 20pc since last November.

 

The erosion of export margins may explain why Beijing is still dragging its feet on a revaluation of the yuan, despite ever louder calls for retaliatory sanctions in Washington. China's currency has fallen slightly on a trade weighted-basis since the dollar-peg was replaced in May by a crawling band, a clear sign that the authorities are worried that the economy is cooling too fast. Beijing has tried cool the property boom with credit curbs but it is hard to use such tools in a surgical fashion without collateral damage. The growth of factory output ground to a halt in July, on a month-on-month basis.

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