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All the talk is about deflation. Bond yields are pushing the lows. And yet gold pushes up. So much for the orthodoxy that deflation is negative for gold. :lol:

 

Also, dollar and gold moving up together here.

 

 

 

ggggg.gif

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well, not all bonds...

Greece Ten Year Government Bond Spread- 10.44%

Nice... 10%... not.

 

The Euro/ dollar cross could likely be at 1.10 by the end of the year. :o

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USD20Yields_13770_image003.gif

 

 

Not that relevant for a gold thread, but a pretty picture anyway. Looks like the lows of 2008 are going to be revisited. Not for gold though of course.

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Gold, GATA, and manipulation

 

Erik Townsend has carefully rebutted much nonsense from GATA in two articles on Financial Sense

 

Here's an EXCERPT from the second one:

 

Immediately after the CFTC hearing, GATA and King World News “broke” the “news” that Jeffrey Christian had made an “extraordinary admission of 100:1 leverage on the LBMA”. This nonsensical allegation is typical of GATA’s conduct. They twisted Mr. Christian’s words completely out of context, and claim he has “admitted” to the existence of “100:1 leverage”. There was no admission and there is no 100:1 leverage. It was GATA, not Christian, who incorrectly used the word leverage. GATA and Eric King act as if shocking new information had been discovered and that Christian had “slipped” by revealing this revelation, which they imply had been previously kept secret from the public. Had GATA instead done some basic research, they would have known this information long before the CFTC hearing. They needed only to purchase Christian’s Gold Yearbook or visit his website, and they would have found this chart, which clearly reveals that the majority of transactions on LBMA are “paper” derivatives:

 

0423_clip_image002.gif

 

This is not a revelation. It’s publicly available information! Yet GATA would like you to believe that Christian was a party to some sort of evil conspiracy to keep this information from the public. If that were really his goal, I find it odd that he would publish such a telling chart in his book or on his web site.

 

He goes on to address Chris Powell's arguments in various bulletpoints.

/source: http://www.financialsensearchive.com/edito.../2010/0423.html

 

Erik now lives in HK, and he joined me on the latest GER "Experts" Podcast: http://tinyurl.com/GER-Doldrums

 

I am considering doing a podcast on Evidence of Gold manipulation.

 

I would like suggestions on who might represent the "Gold is extensively manipulated" point of view.

 

I don't think we need to hear Bill Murphy's views again. And I don't know if Jim Sinclair would be willing to come one.

 

Other suggestions please?

And I may entertain questions from GEI, and GEI posters

 

Questions, Comments are welcome.

Please post them here:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....80&start=80

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Case for this strengthening as GBP continues to weaken vs USD

 

Its worth starting the averaging in process in GBP in my opinion. I'm expecting gold in GBP to touch the 50 MA to complete the seasonality trend of recent years, but it's not really worth the risk of missing a bottom by holding out any longer.

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p35504570828

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Its worth starting the averaging in process in GBP in my opinion. I'm expecting gold in GBP to touch the 50 MA to complete the seasonality trend of recent years, but it's not really worth the risk of missing a bottom by holding out any longer.

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p35504570828

Yes, the problem with buying in pounds is the pound is more volatile than gold these days. :lol:

 

This is why I've always advocated holding dollars if you were holding off from buying gold [the US dollar being a stronger central currency].

 

Now that gold is monetized and more stable than the pound, the long term trend line shows where to buy in pounds. As you say, now looks a good time to buy.

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Here is a recreation, from my own datasets, of the most convincing gold graph I have seen. I think the original was a post from Steve Netwriter a couple of years ago, and it impressed me so much I have wanted to rework the data.

 

It shows the monthly change in gold price against real interest rate (Fed rate - US CPI), geometrically averaged since 1970. The moral of the story is that:

 

+ Gold is the place to run when real interest rates are negative, offering a positive return.

+ This bull market may well end only when real interest rates are above +3% (+1 % for a cautious outlook)

+ The error bars (one standard error) show how good a bull market this is - that increase for negative rates is most likely statistically significant p< 0.05 over 40 years.

 

realgain.png

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Yes, the problem with buying in pounds is the pound is more volatile than gold these days. :lol:

 

This is why I've always advocated holding dollars if you were holding off from buying gold [the US dollar being a stronger central currency].

 

Now that gold is monetized and more stable than the pound, the long term trend line shows where to buy in pounds. As you say, now looks a good time to buy.

 

I'm split USD, GBP and CHF with my buying pot.

USD for the reason you state, GBP because thats what I earn/spend in (and have this as my emergency cash) and CHF as a sensible third currency for a bit of a hedge against the unexpected.

 

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Here is a recreation, from my own datasets, of the most convincing gold graph I have seen. I think the original was a post from Steve Netwriter a couple of years ago, and it impressed me so much I have wanted to rework the data.

 

It shows the monthly change in gold price against real interest rate (Fed rate - US CPI), geometrically averaged since 1970. The moral of the story is that:

 

+ Gold is the place to run when real interest rates are negative, offering a positive return.

+ This bull market may well end only when real interest rates are above +3% (+1 % for a cautious outlook)

+ The error bars (one standard error) show how good a bull market this is - that increase for negative rates is most likely statistically significant p< 0.05 over 40 years.

 

realgain.png

Cool graph!

 

I think we could be waiting a very long time then.

 

 

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Here is a recreation, from my own datasets, of the most convincing gold graph I have seen. I think the original was a post from Steve Netwriter a couple of years ago, and it impressed me so much I have wanted to rework the data.

 

It shows the monthly change in gold price against real interest rate (Fed rate - US CPI), geometrically averaged since 1970. The moral of the story is that:

 

+ Gold is the place to run when real interest rates are negative, offering a positive return.

+ This bull market may well end only when real interest rates are above +3% (+1 % for a cautious outlook)

+ The error bars (one standard error) show how good a bull market this is - that increase for negative rates is most likely statistically significant p< 0.05 over 40 years.

 

realgain.png

Very Good chart !

A copy of this will go into the Favorite CHARTS thread, see Link below the Header

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Here is a recreation, from my own datasets, of the most convincing gold graph I have seen. I think the original was a post from Steve Netwriter a couple of years ago, and it impressed me so much I have wanted to rework the data.

 

Nice :D

I think I got it from Adrian of Bullion Vault, just to give credit where it's due :D

 

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Here is a recreation, from my own datasets, of the most convincing gold graph I have seen. I think the original was a post from Steve Netwriter a couple of years ago, and it impressed me so much I have wanted to rework the data.

 

It shows the monthly change in gold price against real interest rate (Fed rate - US CPI), geometrically averaged since 1970. The moral of the story is that:

 

+ Gold is the place to run when real interest rates are negative, offering a positive return.

+ This bull market may well end only when real interest rates are above +3% (+1 % for a cautious outlook)

+ The error bars (one standard error) show how good a bull market this is - that increase for negative rates is most likely statistically significant p< 0.05 over 40 years.

 

realgain.png

Interesting that the red bar on the left is the highest.

Why isn't the blue one? You would have thought that the largest difference in interest rates (in gold's favour) would have had the largest change in gold price.

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You'd have to be a brave soul hanging on to Palladium here. Nor does Platinum look a lot better. Gold looks solid.... might have to do with it being considered a currency in "unusually uncertain" times..

 

 

palplat.gif

 

 

solid.gif

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You'd have to be a brave soul hanging on to Palladium here. Nor does Platinum look a lot better. Gold looks solid.... might have to do with it being considered a currency in "unusually uncertain" times..

 

it's all about perspective

 

pdbubble.gif

 

pd is far more volatile than gold but as the risk is higher so is the potential reward, lest we forget the Chinese Auto-mobile industry favouring pd over pt as it is the cheaper metal. And the fact that pd is a lot rarer than gold

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it's all about perspective

 

pd is far more volatile than gold but as the risk is higher so is the potential reward, lest we forget the Chinese Auto-mobile industry favouring pd over pt as it is the cheaper metal. And the fact that pd is a lot rarer than gold

The longer term perspective.

 

Whereas I might consider putting 50% of my capital in gold, I wouldn't put more than 5% in palladium. Gold looks like a safe haven, palladium a speculative punt, or good to trade.

 

 

llll.gif

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You'd have to be a brave soul hanging on to Palladium here. Nor does Platinum look a lot better. Gold looks solid.... might have to do with it being considered a currency in "unusually uncertain" times..

 

 

palplat.gif

 

I am no technician but is that a gigantic inverse head and shoulders pattern I see before me in Pd?

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I am no technician but is that a gigantic inverse head and shoulders pattern I see before me in Pd?

Add to that a double top... which is bearish [for palladium].

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The longer term perspective.

 

Whereas I might consider putting 50% of my capital in gold, I wouldn't put more than 5% in palladium. Gold looks like a safe haven, palladium a speculative punt, or good to trade.

 

 

maybe but given your track record on calling pd and pt, i will treat your views with caution:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=69413

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=82760

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maybe but given your track record on calling pd and pt, i will treat your views with caution:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=69413

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=82760

Both those posts are bearish on palladium and platinum. I've always thought gold would outperform palladium, platinum and even silver.

 

The reason being I consider gold in the process of re-monetization [a currency] and not a commodity. This makes it deflation proof.

 

My record is looking OK so far.... it is not stretching the imagination too far to see further deleveraging taking the price of platinum below gold.

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Add to that a double top... which is bearish [for palladium].

Charting is an odd art isn't it. I remember a similar pattern in gold being called a double top and then look what happened :lol:

 

Caution is to be advised here but I wouldn't be in a rush to dump any physical. But then I have a longer term perspective in mind.

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Both those posts are bearish on palladium. I've always thought gold would outperform palladium, platinum and even silver.

 

The reason being I consider gold in the process of re-monetization [a currency] and not a commodity.

 

My record has been good so far.

 

eh?

 

link1 - pd price oct 08 sub $200 now $466

 

link 2- pt price dec 08 $800 / gold $750 (approx), now $1500/$1200 respectively

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