GOLD

[GatheringStorm]

This time last year the deals would last all weekend until at least Sunday lunch time.

 

In a similar vein, has anyone noticed how few 1 oz gold coins there are on ebay. Back in 2005 when I started buying there were typically over 100 available from UK sellers at any one time. Now it's down to about 15 or so. They were around £245/£250 back in 2005.

 

In case anyone's worried about the volatility of paper gold they can observe that the ebay price is much steadier and isn't prone to sudden take downs like paper gold.

 

 

 

 

 

[Schaublin]

In a similar vein, has anyone noticed how few 1 oz gold coins there are on ebay. Back in 2005 when I started buying there were typically over 100 available from UK sellers at any one time. Now it's down to about 15 or so. They were around £245/£250 back in 2005.

 

In case anyone's worried about the volatility of paper gold they can observe that the ebay price is much steadier and isn't prone to sudden take downs like paper gold.

 

 

Agree. ebay is worth watching for real-world prices and suppy - I too have noticed far fewer krugerrands for sale and the prices above spot are significantly higher than they were a few years ago.

[DoctorSolar]

New offer is on 1/10th oz gold coin from andorra.

These have all gone too. Pity we don't know how much they had in stock to get an idea of the demand out there.

[marmite]

These have all gone too. Pity we don't know how much they had in stock to get an idea of the demand out there.

 

As mentioned further up the thread, watch ebay. Supply is well down for 1oz, half oz and quater oz coins and have been for about 6 months. What does find its way to market sells at a higher spread than the bullion dealers. There are people out there spending real money under the radar.

 

The scrap dealers in the UK are really busy. The assay / foundry offices run out of money by lunch time / early afternoon ( some have upto 6 windows with a huge wad of cash each first thing in the morning ) with the amounts of gold comming in from the wheeler dealers, that they have bought off the public. They are then having no problems selling it off to the mints.

 

Very difficult to gage how much bullion the coin dealers have tho in their stocks. They are always cagey about these matters.

[DoctorSolar]

As mentioned further up the thread, watch ebay. Supply is well down for 1oz, half oz and quater oz coins and have been for about 6 months.

Based on this observation it would appear that a lot of gold is now in strong hands and will not budge till we see higher prices.

Does anyone have any idea the quantity of gold the cash4gold outfits process in a given day/week/month?

 

[electroweak]

Based on this observation it would appear that a lot of gold is now in strong hands and will not budge till we see higher prices.

Agreed - people don't buy coins for a poxy 10-20% or even 50%.

[marmite]

Based on this observation it would appear that a lot of gold is now in strong hands and will not budge till we see higher prices.

Does anyone have any idea the quantity of gold the cash4gold outfits process in a given day/week/month?

 

I have a m8 in the jewellery trade who makes weekly trips to the one of the refiners in hatton garden to sell accumilated scrap bars. He has already melted the scrap down into unrefined mixed 9ct/14ct/18ct/22ct bars. He always waits until he has accumilated £1000+ worth of scrap before melt .The bars are then either sold as scrap to the refiner or refined and assayed for the customer to reuse in the trade. The refiner has 6 processing windows which are only open to vat registered traders ( ie no joe public ). Each window has a cash float in the morning for buying and once its gone its gone for the day and they stop buying until the next day. He reckons you have to get there early morning before lunch or all the windows are closed ( this was not the case a year ago, windows where open until close of business at 5pm ), he guesses that the float for each window is in the £100k area.

 

This is all hearsay but interesting none the less.

[GatheringStorm]

The scrap dealers in the UK are really busy. The assay / foundry offices run out of money by lunch time / early afternoon ( some have upto 6 windows with a huge wad of cash each first thing in the morning ) with the amounts of gold comming in from the wheeler dealers, that they have bought off the public. They are then having no problems selling it off to the mints.

 

This tells us that we're early to the party. As long as the amateurs continue to sell to the pros, then personally, I'm confident the bull market in gold is alive and well.

 

 

 

[Jake]

This tells us that we're early to the party. As long as the amateurs continue to sell to the pros, then personally, I'm confident the bull market in gold is alive and well.

Snap. But I wouldn't be surprised if they are trying to scare a few more into selling before driving the market down as much as they can...before hoovering it all up themselves.

[GatheringStorm]

Snap. But I wouldn't be surprised if they are trying to scare a few more into selling before driving the market down as much as they can...before hoovering it all up themselves.

 

I think physical buyers are the strongest hands of all. Unlike many paper traders, physical holders know exactly why they are in this market, understand the fundamentals and have no trouble riding out the volatility.

 

As for the man/woman on the street, jewellery holder, these people tend not to listen to the media that usually broadcast the the misinformation such as the BBC, CNN etc. so cannot be "scared out" but they can of course be seduced by the daytime TV "turn your old gold bling into cash" ads.

 

I think gold stocks are where it's at now. Sentiment is crap and the early speculators are getting battle weary but I think reinforcements are close at hand!!!

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

Thanks for the interesting comments on Ebay (which I don't follow) and scrap issues. Here a little additional confirmation that we are early in this market:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/Gold...rium_Price.html

[GatheringStorm]

Thanks for the interesting comments on Ebay (which I don't follow) and scrap issues. Here a little additional confirmation that we are early in this market:

 

If that were a stock or an index I would say the base being formed on the right hand side is a thing of beauty.

 

However this is a ratio. I'm never too sure whether TA works on ratios?

 

 

[d2thdr]

Could someone post a graph showing the inflation in the UK from 2001 to 2010? Thank you.

[electroweak]

Could someone post a graph showing the inflation in the UK from 2001 to 2010? Thank you.

THE ONS RPI (CHAW) and CPI (D7BT, I think) give you all the info you need:

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/tsda...ore=N&All=Y

you can get a CSV (comma separated file) which you can import into Excel or Openoffice here:

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/tsda...t.asp?vlnk=7173

 

Of course, this isn't my inflation rate. Better see Shadowstats for the US than look at the official figures.

[Fortune]

I'm going to stick my neck out here:

 

1. $1033 gold will hold for now and we will see another test of the all-time high. Armstrong's key turning point - April 16 - will see the start of the PM decline; possibly visiting Roman's three figures in dollars and 500's in pounds along the way. Silver the dog will follow in sympathy. Wouldn't surprise me to see the 12's again. Silver bugs you have been warned.

 

2. Possible testing of the crash lows in the DOW in May (around the 11th). Gold bug newbies will jump over the cliff and Jim Sinclair will be swamped (no pun intended) with hate mail.

 

3. Miserable gold and silver consolidation all spring and summer until the epic rally begins in the fall (Oct).

 

You can nail that to a mast.

At the risk of jumping the gun a little too early (or is it too late?), it looks like Armstrong is on the money again. Summer doldrums part two here we come.

[marmite]

Is gold still way undervalued ???

 

The SAS give their soldiers gold soveregns for emergency use. These coins can be used to aid travel in a hostile environment as its a recognized currency.

 

With all this airport chaos caused by the Icelandic volcano, there are numerous stories of people paying £2000 - £3000 stirling to cab drivers / van / lorry drives for passage to Calais, France. These are relative short journeys of 200 to 600 miles from france / spain / norway / greece etc.

 

Using the old safe journey wisdom, thats a cost of 10+ gold sovereigns

 

Yes, people are trying to make a profit, but that is the way the world works ( Supply and demmand ). It really shows that gold could easily have very long legs from here in times of strife

[marmite]

Is gold still way undervalued ???

 

The SAS give their soldiers gold soveregns for emergency use. These coins can be used to aid travel in a hostile environment as its a recognized currency.

 

With all this airport chaos caused by the Icelandic volcano, there are numerous stories of people paying £2000 - £3000 stirling to cab drivers / van / lorry drives for passage to Calais, France. These are relative short journeys of 200 to 600 miles from france / spain / norway / greece etc.

 

Using the old safe journey wisdom, thats a cost of 10+ gold sovereigns

 

Yes, people are trying to make a profit, but that is the way the world works ( Supply and demmand ). It really shows that gold could easily have very long legs from here in times of strife

 

This is a longer term view by the way. I agree with the above post, we will see summer doldrums again, which will be a nice buyin / add time.

[dietcolaaddict]

This is a longer term view by the way. I agree with the above post, we will see summer doldrums again, which will be a nice buyin / add time.

 

I was worried the summer doldrums were starting today but a nice V-shape in the daily spot price says no.

[G0ldfinger]

Could someone post a graph showing the inflation in the UK from 2001 to 2010? Thank you.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since2001/UK_RPI.html

[G0ldfinger]

However this is a ratio. I'm never too sure whether TA works on ratios?

Does it work at all?

[ologhai]

Does it work at all?

 

I've wondered this, too. I don't think we should ever under-estimate the human mind's ability to spot patterns, even in noise.

 

It would be interesting to introduce some randomly-generated charts in among charts of real data to see if anyone would notice the difference[1].

 

I have a gut feeling (but no evidence) that the close analysis of random charts would yield just as many points of apparent interest as real ones.

 

[1] Of course, when I say 'random', I don't mean random-random, as in just numbers plucked out of nowhere, which would probably produce charts that are clearly implausible for real data. However, I know of procedures for generating random-walk or similar data that produce realistic (but still entirely random) results. These procedures can be used to generate many kinds of plausible 'noise', for example for artificial terrains, and I imagine labelling the results up as economic data of some kind would be equally fine.

[electroweak]

aeons ago when i worked for a major investment bank, someone told me the story of a young female trader who found a chart on her desk every morning and traded the bluechips based on it. The chart turned out to be a Norwegian logging report. The strategy worked well for a while apparently. Can't see there would be any major correlation tho!

 

IMO, charts work at least partly because the herd expect them to and so any bounces or resistances become self-fulfilling. So, for this thesis to work, enough people have to be watching the chart. I think there are quite a few watching the G:S ratio but probably not enough trading actively to make it self-fulfilling from a TA point of view. Just my 2c.

[Pixel8r]

I've wondered this, too. I don't think we should ever under-estimate the human mind's ability to spot patterns, even in noise.

 

It would be interesting to introduce some randomly-generated charts in among charts of real data to see if anyone would notice the difference[1].

 

I have a gut feeling (but no evidence) that the close analysis of random charts would yield just as many points of apparent interest as real ones.

 

[1] Of course, when I say 'random', I don't mean random-random, as in just numbers plucked out of nowhere, which would probably produce charts that are clearly implausible for real data. However, I know of procedures for generating random-walk or similar data that produce realistic (but still entirely random) results. These procedures can be used to generate many kinds of plausible 'noise', for example for artificial terrains, and I imagine labelling the results up as economic data of some kind would be equally fine.

Random based on fractal algorithms always works well there is a certain order in natural chaos. I think some of these TA systems that use fractals could be onto something.

[romans holiday]

Bob Hoye's latest. Some thoughts on the g/s ratio also.

 

http://www.radio.goldseek.com/players/hoyeplayer04.20.10.php

[dietcolaaddict]

I'm not planning on buying any gold at the moment as I'm uncertain about buying pre-doldrums. But I am thinking of loading up my Goldmoney account and swapping the £ to USD (0.5% fee) pre-election.

 

I think gold will be lower in USD terms later this summer. I also think the £ is unrealistically strong against the dollar pre-election.