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G0ldfinger
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romans holiday Newbie

romans holiday

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You can thank Eric King probably

zzzzh.gif

Which raises the point; do we really want to see gold rocket immediately?

 

I do not need to see a rocketing price to be confident that the price will increase. I'd rather be able to continue buying a decent amount with my salary for another year or two.

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drbubb Mentor

drbubb

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Saving up ... to buy cigarettes ... in 2016

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drbubb Mentor

drbubb

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Which raises the point; do we really want to see gold rocket immediately?

 

I do not need to see a rocketing price to be confident that the price will increase. I'd rather be able to continue buying a decent amount with my salary for another year or two.

 

Rocket? No.

But when it does rocket, I want to be on the right side.

 

One reason I took half my profits on PHYS and replaced them with in-the-money calls,

was because we often get some seasonal weakness in Gold into the summer months

 

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jerpy Newbie

jerpy

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One for the bears

 

Warning bells sounded for gold

 

IF Indian holders of gold decide to start selling their metal as scrap and sentiment turns sour by other investors, the gold price could come crashing down, seriously hurting mining companies who are spending between $717 and $950 on each ounce of gold they extract.

 

It’s a sombre warning indeed for the gold market and producers that comes from Paul Walker, CEO of London-based metals consultancy GFMS.

 

One of the core faults in the market at the moment is that the bedrock of demand, jewellery fabrication, has seen a hefty pull back because of high gold prices and the recession, he said at the launch of the 2010 GFMS Gold Survey. Gold jewellery demand fell 20% to 1,759 tonnes last year, a 21-year low.

 

Investment in 900 tonnes of gold offset an almost 500 decline in gold consumed in fabrication. As a whole, demand for gold rose eight percent last year, with strong inflows into physical gold products like exchange-traded funds as low interest rates, worries over inflation and potential government defaults on debt drove investors into the market.

 

“If and when we see investment demand weakening, I wonder how quickly the gold jewellery market, which was squeezed out by price rises, will rebound,” Walker said. World investment in gold doubled in 2009 to nearly $60bn and he questioned the sustainability of these kinds of inflows, which if they taper off, will see the gold price stagnate or pull back.

 

“How this pans out over the next four to five years is critical to determining the gold market,” he said, cautioning if investors saw positive real interest rates “gold will really struggle”.

 

“People have unreasonable expectations of that gold can do,” he said. “The end game for gold prices is being played out in the medium term.”

 

His message of falling gold prices stirs the ire of gold bulls, who see a ‘stronger for longer’ scenario given the parlous state of the global economy and doubts about its recovery, particularly with the massive debt burdens in developed nations. The argument is this uncertainty means sustained investment demand in the metal, which is regarded as a safe place to store wealth, and steady to higher gold prices.

 

To ease the fears of some in the market the U.S. Federal Reserve has made clear it will not monetise federal budget deficits by printing money, Reuters reported on Thursday.

 

"We have politely made clear in all our speeches ... that we will not monetize the deficits," Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on a panel at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, Reuters reported.

 

$700 or $800/oz in next few years

 

Walker told an audience in Johannesburg he was placing bets with friends that the gold price could fall to $700 or $800 “before the next few years are out”.

 

For the first time, GFMS has included a section on what it is costing producers to get their gold to the market. It said the all-in-cost to produce an ounce of gold was $27 higher at $717 in 2009, including the total production cost, ongoing capital expenditure, indirect costs and overheads. The figures were drawn from a measurement of 70% of the Western world’s gold production.

 

GFMS also estimates that the “true, fully loaded sustainable long-term cost of gold mine production stood between $925 and $950/oz in 2009.” This excludes any return to shareholders, but builds in greenfields exploration, project development and exploration.

 

One gold source at the presentation argued this figure was too high and was seen by some at around $750 rather. A South African Chamber of Mines official, however, called the GFMS figure in the right “ball park”.

 

If the gold price does retreat as investor interest fades leading to positions being unwound and physical metal coming onto the market, it will leave a good number of producers in a rather difficult position economically. Walker argued the fundamentals of supply and demand would then kick in as a primary source of gold shrank, pushing the gold price up again.

 

“In three or four years the costing side will be a significant factor if there is a correction in the gold price,” he said.

 

Interestingly, Walker defended GFMS’s stance on the gold price, saying there was a perception the consultancy was negative. He argued that since 2002 GFMS had been bullish and the stance now was one of warning on potential downside risks to the price over the next three years.

 

Just over half of 166,000 tonnes of gold held above ground is in the form of jewellery. Walker said there was a structural change in the scrap side of the business, with infrastructures put in place in the United States, Japan and UK for people to sell their gold jewellery for cash.

 

“This structural element really concerns me and it should concern anyone in this industry,” he said. He also sounded a warning bell if expectations in India of higher gold prices changed, saying it could lead to a lot of gold being scrapped. India is estimated to hold 16% of gold jewellery, North America 17%, East Asia 25% and Europe 20%

 

http://www.miningmx.com/news/gold_and_silv...ed-for-gold.htm

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romans holiday Newbie

romans holiday

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Wait, when again did I buy this stuff?

 

Another round of deleveraging and it could easily head back down to 200.

 

Of course, you could always sell, hold your nose and take some profits. ;)

 

Or then again, profits could be taken by swapping for gold. I'm sure that gold would hold up a LOT better should we see deleveraging round 2.

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romans holiday Newbie

romans holiday

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If gets down to or near to $200, I will pop into Harrods and buy one of their 400 troy ounce PAMP gold paperweights.

 

http://www.harrods.com/HarrodsStore/Global...50-2e7cce700a00

I was referring to palladium. :)

 

I use silver for paperweights... they are also very good as door-stoppers.

 

Gold down a bit today.

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marmite Newbie

marmite

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Fri 11:32am Goldman Charged With Fraud by SECat TheStreet.com

Fri 11:31am Goldman Is Charged With Subprime Fraudat The Wall Street Journal Online

 

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)

(NYSE: GS)

 

Real-Time: 161.29 Down 22.98 (12.47%) 11:36AM ET

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....

 

Could be a buy in time :lol:

 

Anyone got a target

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seekingclarity Newbie

seekingclarity

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Fri 11:32am Goldman Charged With Fraud by SECat TheStreet.com

Fri 11:31am Goldman Is Charged With Subprime Fraudat The Wall Street Journal Online

 

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)

(NYSE: GS)

 

Real-Time: 161.29 Down 22.98 (12.47%) 11:36AM ET

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....

 

 

 

Agreed, not before time!

Hang 'em high....

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G0ldfinger Newbie

G0ldfinger

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Another round of deleveraging and it could easily head back down to 200.

...

Hmmm. You said this in October 2008 already, when Pd was below 200.

 

Now, look what has happened. Time to come clear? Deflation myth etc.? :)

 

Down with the commodity bull IMO. Only once this deflationary phase has played out and the commodity bull kicks in again will it turn around.

Oopsy. 100% up instead. :rolleyes:

54800504.png

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romans holiday Newbie

romans holiday

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Hmmm. You said this in October 2008 already, when Pd was below 200.

 

Now, look what has happened. Time to come clear? Deflation myth etc.? :)

More like the Recovery is a myth. B)

 

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1271397600.php

Knee-High to a Dreadnought

 

We’ll concede that shoppers have beaten 2009’s Depression-level numbers; that the banks are making money hand over fist; and that Washington D.C. is enjoying a spectacular boom under a Democratic administration with aspirations for Big Government that beggar FDR’s wildest dreams. But all of these things taken together do not rise above the knees of the economic dreadnought bearing down on us. It has taken the form of high unemployment, cascading foreclosures, and a wave of bankruptcies – currently running at 6,900 per day – that is beyond anything ever experienced before in this country. And you can forget about the ridiculous, 9.7% unemployment figure quoted by the mainstream press; the real number is closer to 22%, according to John Williams of ShadowStats.com. As for a turnaround in housing, there were a million foreclosures in the first quarter of 2010 -- up 16% from the first quarter of 2009, and 7% higher than in the previous three months.

 

The recovery story, such as it is, has provided cover for DaBoyz as they’ve pyramided stocks higher and higher. With the Dow now moving above 11000, many gullible observers, as well as the self-aggrandizing mountebanks who dominate the discussion on CNBC, are saying the glass is half-full. That it is, we would agree – but of hemlock, not tonic. Let those who would have us believe the economy has blossomed drink from the glass, that we might purge from our midst dangerous quantities of self-deception that will only make the catastrophe that impends more painful.

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marmite Newbie

marmite

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These CID deals are selling out quicker and quicker every month or so. All 1/2 oz coins gone in a matter of 12 hours ( 6 of those people are asleep or they dont ship too ). This time last year the deals would last all weekend until at least Sunday lunch time.

 

We dont know how much stock they had but it could be a indication of demand.

 

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