GOLD

[bonobo]

Dr B, I would be interested in your reasoning for drawing that white descending line on this kitco chart. It seems to me if you plotted those 3 days of gold price action end to end (as they should be) then there would be no justification for drawing such a line. It is an artefact of the way the graphs are drawn with daily overlays that makes you see a pattern that is not really there.

 

 

 

edit: perhaps this will help explain my thinking:

 

 

Now you can draw your line between the blue and red "mountain tops" but there is no fit with the green data along that line.

[lupercal]

Let's also not forget this classic:

 

The graph shows a pattern of gold price falling when the New York markets open but its a leap of faith to say its manipulation. Can this pattern be created another way? It may just be the dynamics of the different markets are different. The eastern market could have more buyers with more money then the western markets. Our maybe there are more sellers on the western markets. For both markets to have the same valuation would be surprising.

[drbubb]

Tom Obrien says the quick pop in Gold was due to a South Korean boat "going down", with rumors

that the North Koreans were involved.

 

The fact that it can even move that way suggests that Gold was oversold.

[drbubb]

edit: perhaps this will help explain my thinking:

Now you can draw your line between the blue and red "mountain tops" but there is no fit with the green data along that line.

 

You are right, of course.

My line was a bit "whimsical", but it did show a change - a PM move up in gold.

 

I can redraw it this way:

[electroweak]

The graph shows a pattern of gold price falling when the New York markets open but its a leap of faith to say its manipulation. Can this pattern be created another way? It may just be the dynamics of the different markets are different. The eastern market could have more buyers with more money then the western markets. Our maybe there are more sellers on the western markets. For both markets to have the same valuation would be surprising.

Well, the thing for me is that this pattern is not so gradual on individual days. When it happens, that drop in NY hours can be so precipitous it's shocking to watch. There must be tonnes of paper unleashed virtually instantly. Here is one example:

 

Another thing to think about; during day trading in new york, the average trader would be forgiven for thinking gold were in a bear market over the last several years; you can see from the plot i posted and and GF's graphs, that the price on average drops over the whole day. This in itself is odd, but it is the manner of the drops which is to me suspicious.

 

By the way, here is a 16 year chart showing the same pattern:

[dietcolaaddict]

Gold looking bullish today. Lets see if $1120 can be taken.

[romans holiday]

Gold looking bullish today. Lets see if $1120 can be taken.

I'm half expecting one final push up before it continues to consolidate [a repeat of 2008]. That said, I'll still be buying a little each month this year with a part of my reserves. No certainties and all that.

[chazza]

Ive been adding the last few days, out of USD into Gold.

 

Think we could test the highs again if the SM's keep on going.

[d2thdr]

Can the government confiscate privately held physical gold to cover the actual shortage of physical gold on Comex or LBMA citing national security or something crazy.

[electroweak]

Can the government confiscate privately held physical gold to cover the actual shortage of physical gold on Comex or LBMA citing national security or something crazy.

If you actually hold it....

[grumpy-old-man]

I didn't wait for that test - I have been buying gold rather aggressively in recent days as:

 

+ PHYS / Sprott Gold trust

+ Some calls on GLD

+ A handful of mining equities

+ "Paper Gold" MACE / Taels thru HSBC

+ Gold coins, now safely stored in my bank vault

 

Number 2 in cgnao's post below has now been breached, when will Europe & other countries follow suit?

If you have pm's in any bank or storage, then it could very easily be confiscated:

 

ZCZC CGNAOGLD2 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN

MAJOR DERIVATIVE MELTDOWN ALERT

NWS TPC/CGNAO

SUN JUN 08 21:26:46 UTC 2008

 

...BOND INSURERS DOWNGRADES TRIGGERING A FRESH COLOSSAL WAVE OF DERIVATIVE LOSSES ...UNPRECEDENTED CREDIT MARKET PROBLEMS AT LEAST ONE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE LARGER THAN AT THE HEIGHT OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION ...MONETARY SYSTEM ONE STEP AWAY FROM TOTAL COLLAPSE

 

DERIVATIVE LOSSES SURGE, DESPITE MASSIVE INJECTIONS OF EMERGENCY FUNDS WORTH HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, A GIANT $150BN US ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE AND WHOLESALE REWRITING OF RULES TO ALLOW COMMERCIAL BANKS TO PLEDGE RISKY ASSETS TO SECURE HIGH QUALITY CENTRAL BANK FUNDS.

 

SO FAR CENTRAL BANKS HAVE ONLY BEEN PREPARED TO LEND GOVERNMENT SECURITIES AGAINST PLUMMETING MORTGAGE ASSETS, BUT THE SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO GROW EXPLOSIVE IN THE COMING WEEKS.

 

AS MAJOR BANKS, INSURERS AND OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AROUND THE WORLD ARE HIT BY SPIRALLING DERIVATIVE LOSSES AND COLLAPSING COLLATERAL VALUATIONS, CENTRAL BANKS WILL RUN OUT OF HIGH QUALITY GOVERNMENT SECURITIES.

 

AT THAT POINT THE NEXT DESPERATE MOVES OF WESTERN GOVERNMENTS AND CENTRAL BANKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

 

1) A COLOSSAL BAILOUT SCHEME FOR LARGE SCALE OUTRIGHT PURCHASES OF MORTGAGE SECURITIES, FUNDED BY STRAIGHTFORWARD CREATION OF CURRENCY WHICH WILL IGNITE A DEADLY HYPERINFLATIONARY PRICE SPIRAL IN VIRTUALLY EVERY COMMODITY ON THE PLANET AND SKYROCKETING LONG TERM BOND YIELDS WHICH WILL FURTHER COMPOUND DERIVATIVE LOSSES WORLDWIDE.

 

2) DRACONIAN CAPITAL AND EXCHANGE CONTROLS

3) CONFISCATION OF PRECIOUS METALS

 

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS OF ANY KIND, BUT IN PARTICULAR GOLD AND SILVER BULLION, BY MOVING THEM AWAY FROM THE USA, UK AND THE EURO AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

 

 

I like the action in Gold, and it may be set for a run

 

yep, some of us have been saying this since 2006 & buying since then at vastly reduced premiums over today's.

 

I sold my French property (& then put every bit of currency into physical metals) because I believed this scenario would happen after spending a lot of my time reading & learning. If you own foreign property now &/or have currency in foreign banks of which you are not a national in the country the asset is in, how would you be able to realise any profit from these assets ?? Surely you are at the mercy of the lawmakers in these unprecedented times.

 

Capital & Exchange Controls coming to a country your assets may be in very soon imo.

 

I remember reading this in 2007:

 

Capital & Exchange Controls will benefit Gold.

 

 

 

 

[warpig]

Good to see you back GOM and thanks for re-posting CGNAO's predictions, I'd forgotten about this.

 

Number 2 in cgnao's post below has now been breached, when will Europe & other countries follow suit?

If you have pm's in any bank or storage, then it could very easily be confiscated:

 

ZCZC CGNAOGLD2 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN

MAJOR DERIVATIVE MELTDOWN ALERT

NWS TPC/CGNAO

SUN JUN 08 21:26:46 UTC 2008

 

...BOND INSURERS DOWNGRADES TRIGGERING A FRESH COLOSSAL WAVE OF DERIVATIVE LOSSES ...UNPRECEDENTED CREDIT MARKET PROBLEMS AT LEAST ONE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE LARGER THAN AT THE HEIGHT OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION ...MONETARY SYSTEM ONE STEP AWAY FROM TOTAL COLLAPSE

 

DERIVATIVE LOSSES SURGE, DESPITE MASSIVE INJECTIONS OF EMERGENCY FUNDS WORTH HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, A GIANT $150BN US ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE AND WHOLESALE REWRITING OF RULES TO ALLOW COMMERCIAL BANKS TO PLEDGE RISKY ASSETS TO SECURE HIGH QUALITY CENTRAL BANK FUNDS.

 

SO FAR CENTRAL BANKS HAVE ONLY BEEN PREPARED TO LEND GOVERNMENT SECURITIES AGAINST PLUMMETING MORTGAGE ASSETS, BUT THE SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO GROW EXPLOSIVE IN THE COMING WEEKS.

 

AS MAJOR BANKS, INSURERS AND OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AROUND THE WORLD ARE HIT BY SPIRALLING DERIVATIVE LOSSES AND COLLAPSING COLLATERAL VALUATIONS, CENTRAL BANKS WILL RUN OUT OF HIGH QUALITY GOVERNMENT SECURITIES.

 

AT THAT POINT THE NEXT DESPERATE MOVES OF WESTERN GOVERNMENTS AND CENTRAL BANKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

 

1) A COLOSSAL BAILOUT SCHEME FOR LARGE SCALE OUTRIGHT PURCHASES OF MORTGAGE SECURITIES, FUNDED BY STRAIGHTFORWARD CREATION OF CURRENCY WHICH WILL IGNITE A DEADLY HYPERINFLATIONARY PRICE SPIRAL IN VIRTUALLY EVERY COMMODITY ON THE PLANET AND SKYROCKETING LONG TERM BOND YIELDS WHICH WILL FURTHER COMPOUND DERIVATIVE LOSSES WORLDWIDE.

 

2) DRACONIAN CAPITAL AND EXCHANGE CONTROLS

3) CONFISCATION OF PRECIOUS METALS

 

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS OF ANY KIND, BUT IN PARTICULAR GOLD AND SILVER BULLION, BY MOVING THEM AWAY FROM THE USA, UK AND THE EURO AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

 

 

 

 

yep, some of us have been saying this since 2006 & buying since then at vastly reduced premiums over today's.

 

I sold my French property (& then put every bit of currency into physical metals) because I believed this scenario would happen after spending a lot of my time reading & learning. If you own foreign property now &/or have currency in foreign banks of which you are not a national in the country the asset is in, how would you be able to realise any profit from these assets ?? Surely you are at the mercy of the lawmakers in these unprecedented times.

 

Capital & Exchange Controls coming to a country your assets may be in very soon imo.

 

I remember reading this in 2007:

 

Capital & Exchange Controls will benefit Gold.

[LauraB]

Can the government confiscate privately held physical gold to cover the actual shortage of physical gold on Comex or LBMA citing national security or something crazy.

 

Quick, patent the idea.

 

With leverage of 100:1 every ounce will count

 

[d2thdr]

Quick, patent the idea.

 

With leverage of 100:1 every ounce will count

 

 

It was a question which I would like to follow up with is US, UK not a 'safe enough' places to hold gold according to Faber, which place is? Not Gold Money/Bullion Vault?

[signofthetimes]

It was a question which I would like to follow up with is US, UK not a 'safe enough' places to hold gold according to Faber, which place is? Not Gold Money/Bullion Vault?

 

they can only take it if they can find it...

[Fortune]

All the signs seems to be pointing towards Asia (or more specifically Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore) and South America as the final defenders of private property rights. What irony! So much for the so-called 'leaders' of the western world - what a joke.

 

Goldmoney has recently opened a vault in Hong Kong if you don't trust the Swiss (and I increasing don't). Unless you are a millonaire, this is probably the only option left for the little guy / girl.

 

As I've mentioned before, the only sure way to protect your PM's is to hold physically in at least 2 different countries. Preferably with at least one of those countries outside the anglo-saxon banking orbit (is that even possible?). I'm thinking some in Asia, a little in western Europe and some in South America. Jim Willie keeps his PM's in Puerto Rico, I believe, and the legendary CGNAO is somewhere around that area too. I read somewhere that the ideal way is to own a passport of one country, keep your wealth in one country, and live in another country. But who can do that but the mega rich?

 

Put it this way: when this thing comes down, there really will be no escape. Don't be under any illusions that you can easily side-step this global crisis with a bag of krugs or brits. We are all going to get shafted in some way. You better believe it. Escaping with a least 75% of your wealth intact will be a result.

[Fortune]

they can only take it if they can find it...

I don't think they will confiscate this time around: they will tax the living daylights out of your 'profits'. Look for a 50% capital gains tax on the proceeds of PM's. Gold holders will be as popular as bankers in the mainstream media. Whether you physically own it or not, they will 'confiscate' it from you at the point of sale.

[dietcolaaddict]

 

I'm a big believer in gold seasonality and I'm hence a bit worried about buying more PMs over the next few months. Its almost April so the Sept-March season of strength is by previous years performance, over, I think there may be the usual summer doldrums in $ price, coupled by a rally in the pound while Britain remains delusional/brainwashed about its future up to the election.

 

- Gold failing repeatedly to take out $1120 - is this a $ top before a doldrumsy summer?

- A bounce in the $/£ rate may occur from now till UK election - I know its delusional as the UK economy prognosis post-election is dire. But a top in the £ price may also have now occured.

 

I'm tempted to not buy more at the moment with things looking, to me at least, very 'toppy'. May sit and wait for a few months, perhaps partly in $ (I earn in £)

 

Comments?

 

 

 

 

 

[Kent]

I don't think they will confiscate this time around: they will tax the living daylights out of your 'profits'. Look for a 50% capital gains tax on the proceeds of PM's. Gold holders will be as popular as bankers in the mainstream media. Whether you physically own it or not, they will 'confiscate' it from you at the point of sale.

 

 

That's something that has crossed my mind. We saw short sellers getting scapegoated for bringing down the banks, the same could happen to gold holders, as they would be seen as undermining the FIAT currencies.

 

The way around that would be to sell it in a gold friendly country.

[romans holiday]

I'm a big believer in gold seasonality and I'm hence a bit worried about buying more PMs over the next few months. Its almost April so the Sept-March season of strength is by previous years performance, over, I think there may be the usual summer doldrums in $ price, coupled by a rally in the pound while Britain remains delusional/brainwashed about its future up to the election.

 

I'm tempted to not buy more at the moment with things looking, to me at least, very 'toppy'. May sit and wait for a few months, perhaps partly in $ (I earn in £)

 

Comments?

Having 50% of my worth already in gold, I feel I can afford to hedge for lower gold prices.

 

I'm taking a 3 tiered approach:

 

- average in a little every month this year while prices decline a little or track sideways

 

- keep a decent reserve back if we see a deleveraging dip

 

- buy an instrument such as the VXX which would leverage your ability to buy gold should we see a dip

 

This strategy also involves being in dollars.

 

 

[electroweak]

 

a little smack-up for gold....

 

Barrick Gold Suit May Cut Projected 2010 Cortez Output by Half

By Joe Schneider

 

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Barrick Gold Corp.’s plan to more than double production at its Cortez gold mine complex in Nevada may turn on a judge’s decision in an environmental challenge by American Indian tribes.

 

The Canadian company forecast a production increase of 562,000 ounces with the addition this year of the Cortez Hills mine, located 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) from an older Nevada installation which produced 518,000 ounces last year.

 

The state’s Shoshone tribes claim the U.S. Bureau of Land Management didn’t fully evaluate the environmental impact of the mine expansion before approving it. They sued in 2008 to stop the new operation, about 200 miles east of Reno, and are seeking a court order forbidding production until a trial is held.

 

Such an injunction “would hit their share price,” said Patrick Chidley, a gold-mining analyst at Barnard Jacobs Mellet USA LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. He declined to predict how much shares may fall, saying only “it would be noticeable.” The judge overseeing the case hasn’t said when he will rule.

 

The Cortez deposits, near Mount Tenabo, a Western Shoshone sacred site, contain about 14.1 million ounces of gold, Barrick said in its annual report. At $1,100 an ounce, the deposits would be valued at $15.5 billion, while production from Cortez Hills would be valued at $569.8 million or 7 percent of last year’s sales.

 

600,000 Ounces

 

Production at the new site may exceed 600,000 ounces this year, as output from the older Cortez mine declines, said Chidley, who rates Barrick “outperform” and expects the stock to rise 56 percent to $60.20 in the next 12 months. Chidley said he doesn’t own any shares of Barrick.

 

Most analysts probably agree with Chidley that the existing mining operation at Cortez will produce less gold this year, Barrick’s spokesman Vincent A. Borg said in an e-mail.

 

“That doesn’t mean they are right,” Borg said.

 

The older mine produced 904,000 ounces in 2005 and output fell 43 percent in the next four years.

 

Overall, the Toronto-based company in 2009 produced 2.8 million ounces of gold in North America.

[drbubb]

Life in those Chinese taels, eh Dr Bubb?

Indeed !

 

It would be very satisfying if I have nailed the turn.

 

Some criticised me last year for "missing the rally in Gold" (from maybe $950 to over $1200). But I didn't really "miss out":

 

1/ I bought C$ (FXC) instead of Gold, and that did well, rising 26%, and STAYING UP against the dollar*.

2/ I owned "Bull Calls" on GLD, and some junior miners, that had a good run.

3/ By not being loaded with physical gold, I missed out on the approx. 10% drop from over $1200 to under $1100.

 

*FXC

[duckwomanloulou]

I don't think they will confiscate this time around: they will tax the living daylights out of your 'profits'. Look for a 50% capital gains tax on the proceeds of PM's. Gold holders will be as popular as bankers in the mainstream media. Whether you physically own it or not, they will 'confiscate' it from you at the point of sale.

 

 

+1

 

That's my thinking too.

 

If the black swan event predicted this year by some is the PM short squeeze triggering the next round of bankruptcies and failures then 'Goldbugs' would be easy targets for the media (the fact that some of us are just savers looking for decent returns on our investment & to protect our wealth will be quickly glossed over)

[drbubb]

Your next move, Mr. Gold?

 

 

A tiny rise may be signalling a major breakout has started.

 

We are at a similar moment to when India bought gold back on Nov. 4th

[Jake]

A tiny rise may be signalling a major breakout has started.

 

We are at a similar moment to when India bought gold back on Nov. 4th

 

Yes, and we both thought it would go down then, no? Instead it rocketed off. With the lower highs recently I'm waiting to see if this time it won't go down.