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Thanks for taking the time to write this. I have to say though I am becoming quite sceptical of wave theory in general, albeit EW or NW. In my humble opinion it can't cater for non-linear events like market manipulation, CB's being net buyers, QE, global sovereign defaults or wars. I'm not at all convinced you can chart what is about to unfold...

 

Do you concur the gold market is manipulated by the likes of HSBC and JPM through the COMEX?

 

Because too many people are still punting their money on property, building shares and bank shares. If you think about the different assets that the general public are going to speculate in then they are gold, shares and property.

 

1966 was a share peak

1973 was a housing peak

1980 was a gold peak

1989 was a housing peak

1999 was a share peak

2007 was a housing peak

 

2016/2017 should be a gold peak again - do you see the pattern?.

 

The inflationary Kondratieff summer is shorter, so the speculative peaks are a little closer at 7 years, whereas the low inflation Kondratieff autumn and deflationary (in assets) Kondratieff winter are more like 9 years.

 

My K-wave theory predicts a major low in stockmarkets in April/May 2013 - after the general public see their pensions and investments mullered for a third time since 2000 with yet another stock market crash, they will see what gold is doing because everyone is talking about it and give up on stocks and BTL.

 

Having gone through the whole of the 80's and 90's making handsome gains year after year (except for the brief crash of '87 that soon recovered) most baby boomers have never seen times like these in their investing lives. I think money will pour into gold and gold stocks from 2013 because it's making new highs and the second/longer part of the deflationary bust will be coming to an end with inflation then becoming the problem later.

 

Before all of this can happen though, gold will go through another deeper correction like it did in 2008 which creates another buying opportunity for the 5th wave up which is the mania phase.

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Before all of this can happen though, gold will go through another deeper correction like it did in 2008 which creates another buying opportunity for the 5th wave up which is the mania phase.

 

This will be Prechter's thinking too. He recently said 'at some point we'll be looking to move from Dollars to Gold later in the deflation'. He sees a silver low in 2012 and gold not far behind it, I imagine. But he is talking of buying when nobody will want to buy. ie when everyone thinks the gold bull is dead and the reasons for owning it. I find this hardest to swallow in the global environment we find ourselves. I just can't see gold at 280 again myself. 700-800 could be a possibility though. I wonder what you think Catflap?

 

I find myself much confused as to the thinking. Sure I can swallow the Deflation thesis and I can see the Dow/stocks plumetting, I can see pm's falling in deleveraging like 2008 but I can't imagine we'll all be hiding in fiat currencies or the dollar hoping it doesnt go to hell before we all simply pop out to pick up our pm's. This is where I see a brief fall then a run to gold and silver (pm's) as the only safe port in stormy weather.

 

IMO this is no time to sell pm's, but it is a chance to buy gingerly on dips such as now keeping more back for further dips along the way.

 

Why should gold peak 2016/17. I would have thought 2018 at the earliest.

 

 

Warpig. I see Prechters EW thinking coming more into play recently. I admit it has been like standing too close to a Renoir, moving back slowly and being always out of focus. But now are we at the optimum distance for seeing the total, beautiful picture? Dollar bottoms, gold peaks at 1227. Are we standing on the rim of a super deleveraging volcano about to implode? How far gold reacts will be a decider for me on Prechter or Gordon as the more reliable. Gordon has had the upper hand in his (gold) analysis for 10 odd years. Is that about to change and Prechter be vindicated? Both see similar crashes in stocks. It is the gold scenario they have both see things differently.

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Thanks for taking the time to write this. I have to say though I am becoming quite sceptical of wave theory in general, albeit EW or NW. In my humble opinion it can't cater for non-linear events like market manipulation, CB's being net buyers, QE, global sovereign defaults or wars. I'm not at all convinced you can chart what is about to unfold...

 

Do you concur the gold market is manipulated by the likes of HSBC and JPM through the COMEX?

 

No problem - it's nice to make an intelligent contribution on the gold thread with my ideas and projections which others do appreciate rather than what went on before. I am a (quiet) gold bull and understanding the equity markets/dollar has given me a better understanding of where gold is going I think.

 

As you can see from my quick work - the speculative part is probably the last three years of a housing boom, stock market boom or gold boom. I've also got some other stuff that I havn't posted yet that relates to the 1930's bull market in gold shares and how that relates to the previous equity boom in the roaring 20's.

 

I am VERY sceptical about Elliot Wave - I do not believe in it. I've betted against Prechter, Neeley and all the other EW guys since July last year by going long equities and PM stocks and I have been right. Not just in July, but at the end of October and the beginning of February when they were all saying this was the start of the next bear market or 'third wave' down.

 

I just mentioned about the '5th wave up mania phase' because everyone seems to understand what the 5th wave is - it's the final one. But I don't use any Elliot Wave - it's far too complicated which is it's biggest failing and it's too open to different interpretations with different counts!.

 

My work is fractal in nature and focuses on time, not price - things do take a certain length of time to happen and patterns do repeat in time. But I agree there are things governments can do that can change the pattern that would otherwise unfold - just like the Dow in 1938/39, the chart pattern goes really weird and is untradeable or when the government placed a short selling ban on financial stocks and then removed it in February 2009. It put an artificial floor under the market so financial stocks could only make their true lows when this was removed, which they did in March 2009.

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I like your analogy, but I respectfully disagree. IMO they'll push QE to it's limits.

 

Warpig. I see Prechters EW thinking coming more into play recently. I admit it has been like standing too close to a Renoir, moving back slowly and being always out of focus. But now are we at the optimum distance for seeing the total, beautiful picture? Dollar bottoms, gold peaks at 1227. Are we standing on the rim of a super deleveraging volcano about to implode? How far gold reacts will be a decider for me on Prechter or Gordon as the more reliable. Gordon has had the upper hand in his (gold) analysis for 10 odd years. Is that about to change and Prechter be vindicated? Both see similar crashes in stocks. It is the gold scenario they have both see things differently.
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This will be Prechter's thinking too. He recently said 'at some point we'll be looking to move from Dollars to Gold later in the deflation'. He sees a silver low in 2012 and gold not far behind it, I imagine. But he is talking of buying when nobody will want to buy. ie when everyone thinks the gold bull is dead and the reasons for owning it. I find this hardest to swallow in the global environment we find ourselves. I just can't see gold at 280 again myself. 700-800 could be a possibility though. I wonder what you think Catflap?

 

I find myself much confused as to the thinking. Sure I can swallow the Deflation thesis and I can see the Dow/stocks plumetting, I can see pm's falling in deleveraging like 2008 but I can't imagine we'll all be hiding in fiat currencies or the dollar hoping it doesnt go to hell before we all simply pop out to pick up our pm's. This is where I see a brief fall then a run to gold and silver (pm's) as the only safe port in stormy weather.

 

IMO this is no time to sell pm's, but it is a chance to buy gingerly on dips such as now keeping more back for further dips along the way.

 

Why should gold peak 2016/17. I would have thought 2018 at the earliest.

 

Prechter is an extremist - he's calling for the Dow to go to 400. If he looked at fundamentals, like what yield stocks would give at those levels then you would see it's completely nuts! Dow is currently 10,836 as I write this.....

 

I do see gold selling off very hard again but probably over a longer period. At the moment I think it will be from early 2011 to mid 2012 which is around 18 months like we saw in the mid-70's. I'll have to do more work nearer the time, but first want to see how my 18-year dollar fractal plays out - if the last leg down doesn't play out like I think it will then I have to re-think everything.

 

What you do want to do is look at how many oz of gold you got for a years earnings at the start of January 1975 for an indication of how overvalued gold was back then before it's correction. A quick calculation tells me we are around 40oz in the UK so that's still ok, but in January 1975 I think it got down to 30oz (I'll have to calculate that again when I have more time).

 

At the mania peak in January 1980 it was aound 19oz I think (not sure if that was the 'achievable monthly average' I was using instead of the one-day spike). But if gold gets to £900-£1,000 oz early next year and the dollar is weak then look out - it will probably be about to all change.

 

Knowing where the peak will come is difficult - originally I thought 2014 based on several factors and a relationship with the prior equity bull market on work I've done looking at the previous 2 gold bull markets. But now I think it will be 2016 because of where the dollar is in the election cycle ....... but then it could be 2020 since it's taken 20 years to make a bottom from 1980 to 2000!

 

Need some sleep!

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Indeed government intervention/manipulation causes patterns to fail. I am of the strongest opinion gold is manipulated on the COMEX, in most other markets it would be considered a duopoly and would be subject to strict regulations. I suspect gold would be much higher today if it operated in a true-free market environment, with that in mind and considering China, India and many other notable countries are divesting out of the dollar, the price will, as sovereign default risks rise, set the gold price free.

 

IMO we'll get the mania phase in the next 12-18 months as eastern European default's increase and the contagion gains pace. I see the near-term future as an exponential crisis that will be reflected in the price of gold to the upside. All eyes on the bond markets...

 

Incidentally, there is a 5 minute interview with Bill Murphy where he states he has a European whistleblower that can add considerable weight to GATA's CFTC position limit hearing tomorrow. The outcome will be interesting to say the least...

 

No problem - it's nice to make an intelligent contribution on the gold thread with my ideas and projections which others do appreciate rather than what went on before. I am a (quiet) gold bull and understanding the equity markets/dollar has given me a better understanding of where gold is going I think.

 

As you can see from my quick work - the speculative part is probably the last three years of a housing boom, stock market boom or gold boom. I've also got some other stuff that I havn't posted yet that relates to the 1930's bull market in gold shares and how that relates to the previous equity boom in the roaring 20's.

 

I am VERY sceptical about Elliot Wave - I do not believe in it. I've betted against Prechter, Neeley and all the other EW guys since July last year by going long equities and PM stocks and I have been right. Not just in July, but at the end of October and the beginning of February when they were all saying this was the start of the next bear market or 'third wave' down.

 

I just mentioned about the '5th wave up mania phase' because everyone seems to understand what the 5th wave is - it's the final one. But I don't use any Elliot Wave - it's far too complicated which is it's biggest failing and it's too open to different interpretations with different counts!.

 

My work is fractal in nature and focuses on time, not price - things do take a certain length of time to happen and patterns do repeat in time. But I agree there are things governments can do that can change the pattern that would otherwise unfold - just like the Dow in 1938/39, the chart pattern goes really weird and is untradeable or when the government placed a short selling ban on financial stocks and then removed it in February 2009. It put an artificial floor under the market so financial stocks could only make their true lows when this was removed, which they did in March 2009.

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Gold declines a little and things are starting to sound bearish here. I'm sticking to a revisiting of 3 digit prices... though am also sticking to 900 as a solid floor for gold. Reason being, gold was at 900 when QE was first rolled out. Gold is now one of the better currencies out there. The question to me is whether it will behave here more like a commodity or reserve currency. If a commodity currency then it could go lower in tandem with the Aussie, CAD or silver. If more like a reserve currency it should stay relatively firm against the dollar.

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Prechter is an extremist - he's calling for the Dow to go to 400. If he looked at fundamentals, like what yield stocks would give at those levels then you would see it's completely nuts! Dow is currently 10,836 as I write this.....

 

Prechter would argue that very few companies will stay alive, and those few that are still paying dividends

will be paying much less

 

I have been building my gold holdings recently, so you could say that I am betting against his gold view (as you bet against his view on stocks)

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1966 was a share peak

1973 was a housing peak

1980 was a gold peak

1989 was a housing peak

1999 was a share peak

2007 was a housing peak

 

2016/2017 should be a gold peak again - do you see the pattern?.

Interesting to see that, and to consider that my 18 year cycle reading yields a projected 2015/16 peak

in Hong Kong property.

 

Before that peak, I think we may see a big selloff in HK as US rates rise, forcing HK rates up too.

My guess is, that at some point, the HK dollar will be repegged to the Rmb, and that may kick off the last rally

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Prechter would argue that very few companies will stay alive, and those few that are still paying dividends

will be paying much less

 

I have been building my gold holdings recently, so you could say that I am betting against his gold view (as you bet against his view on stocks)

 

Sorry to butt in here, but weren't you of the opinion that 2010 would be a year where the stock markets tank as the deleveraging kicked in again? If so do you think gold will escape relatively unscathed?

I take Prechters calls quite seriously and even though he has been wrong a few months on tops in stocks I think his overall picture is ''we are headed for a fall'. Getting the timing just right is fairly immaterial to EW but being in the right place (safety) is paramount. He is not talking about traders, I think, by and large.

 

So far his dollar strength and gold weakness looks ok to me.

 

You certainly pick your times to be ENTERING the gold fray Dr Bubb. I admire your bravery and U turn.

 

Sure he has been wrong on gold for a long while. I personally hope he is wrong there, period. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him right for a change, esp on deleveraging.

 

Times like these I question my own questioning...but there we go.

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Prechter would argue that very few companies will stay alive, and those few that are still paying dividends

will be paying much less

 

I have been building my gold holdings recently, so you could say that I am betting against his gold view (as you bet against his view on stocks)

 

 

If it is going to be as bad as that, and I don't think it will be, then surely even though gold is great, the only real place you would want to be invested in would be UNMORTGAGED productive farm land and self suffiency?

 

Remember we had a good day yesterday we only needed to borrow 167bn, not 178bn and Brownomics thought that was great news! It is a weird world at this moment the logic of that baffles me!

 

If I could afford a debt free farm at the moment, I think I would buy it now,rather than place all my money in gold.

 

How do others see the gold farmland price relationship going?

 

Which is better a big stash of gold or a productive debt free farm?

 

 

Regards

 

ML.

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How do others see the gold farmland price relationship going?

 

Which is better a big stash of gold or a productive debt free farm?

You're on the right track. But even if I had the cash to buy a farm, I'd hold back as I think farm prices will come down. Better to sit in gold [as a means to the end] and watch asset prices deflate.

 

My brother in law has a small farm, and tells me many of the farmers he knows are struggling with massive debt [from buying/ expanding with mortgages at the peak]. If the Chinese markets crash again....

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1966 was a share peak

1973 was a housing peak

1980 was a gold peak

1989 was a housing peak

1999 was a share peak

2007 was a housing peak

 

2016/2017 should be a gold peak again - do you see the pattern?.

Interesting to see that, and to consider that my 18 year cycle reading yields a projected 2015/16 peak

in Hong Kong property.

Mmmh, let's see:

 

Gold_GBP_RPI-adj.png

UK_House_Prices_RPI-adj.png

DJIA_CPI-adj.png

 

Here a shorter term FTSE:

FTSE_100_RPI-adj.png

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If it is going to be as bad as that, and I don't think it will be, then surely even though gold is great, the only real place you would want to be invested in would be UNMORTGAGED productive farm land and self suffiency?

 

Remember we had a good day yesterday we only needed to borrow 167bn, not 178bn and Brownomics thought that was great news! It is a weird world at this moment the logic of that baffles me!

 

If I could afford a debt free farm at the moment, I think I would buy it now,rather than place all my money in gold.

 

How do others see the gold farmland price relationship going?

 

Which is better a big stash of gold or a productive debt free farm?

 

 

Regards

 

ML.

 

Not so sure it's that simple; because fixed immovable assets are easy to tax, and you can bet your bottom dollar that they will need the revenue. Look out for EVERYTHING to be taxed and means tested in the future.. bear in mind the untraceable asset out of the system that allows you the flexibility to go anywhere in the world and start a farm.

 

 

 

 

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Long term, we are still pre-1973.

 

Gold_Price_to_MZM_Equilibrium_Price_Q_LOG.png

 

Agreed GF - long way to go yet before this bull runs it course.

 

I think the hardest time for gold bugs is during these choppy consolidation periods where it pulls hard on the emotions, but the big picture says it all B)

 

Gold firms as Euro steadies

 

SafeBetter

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More news reiterating the short term direction of gold and the long term direction of the dollar. As ever timing is anyones guess :lol:

 

Au in GBP looking good anyway ;)

 

Right here is where gold test your betting blood

 

Yellow metal likely to decline further - most see these declines as buying opportunities - but keep some powder dry.

 

Gold prices

 

"The recent gold correction represents a longer-term buying opportunity for the metal and the associated miners—skyrocketing U.S. federal debt is the catalyst. Gold fell to a one-month low of $1,090 per ounce today as a stronger U.S. dollar reduced the impetus to buy the precious metal as a hedge. (Gold typically moves inversely to the U.S. currency.) The greenback rallied to a 10-month high against the euro after the French and Germans said any package to bail out Greece would likely involve help from the IMF. The news of any IMF involvement is undermining confidence in the European Union and has investors questioning the long-term viability of the euro. The euro also came under pressure in reaction to Fitch Ratings {having lowered] Portugal's credit rating.

 

While the U.S. dollar could rally and take gold down further in the short run, due to current troubles in Europe, it is unlikely that the U.S. currency will strengthen and gold decline on a consistent basis over the long run. BMO expects gold to be firm over the next two years, with considerable upside risk owing to the massive increases in the U.S. budget deficit. The growing public obligations imply a risk of monetization, which could result in a lower dollar and higher inflation—catalysts for gold investment demand."

 

I like 'considerable upside risk' :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

 

Gold Again Slips Sub-$1100 But "Don't Sell" Says SocGen, as "Long Emergency" in Western Debt Beckons

 

 

SafeBetter

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I would always watch out for hubris, GF. For...

 

He who laughs last, laughs longest.

Fair enough. But show me the devastating hyperdeflations of the past as in comparison to the devastating hyperinflations of the past - all under fiat currency of course. I guess 1 out of 100 cases Prechter would be right.

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Not sure if this site has been posted before:

 

http://bullionsupermarket.com/Default.aspx

 

Some interesting prices on there, anyone used it?

 

SafeBetter

 

Be very diligent if you use this as a source, here is an example:

 

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/1-TROY-OZ-999-100-MI...350159576513211

 

This seller states it is not pure gold:

 

"IT HAS A STUNNING COLOR AND IS MIRRORED WITH AN AMAZING SHINE & FROSTED GOLD FEATURES. THIS BAR IS NOT SOLID GOLD AND IS COMPOSED PARTLY OF ANOTHER METAL, HOWEVER IT DOES CONTAIN 100 MILLS OF GOLD. I AM UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH EXACTLY THAT IS, BUT IT SURE CONTAINS GOLD!!"

 

This seller does not state it is not pure gold, therefore it looks like a bargain:

 

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/1-TROY-OZ-100-MILLS-...0QQcmdZViewItem

 

DYOR!!

 

SafeBetter

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Fair enough. But show me the devastating hyperdeflations of the past as in comparison to the devastating hyperinflations of the past - all under fiat currency of course. I guess 1 out of 100 cases Prechter would be right.

No, I can't. I wish Prechter would pop up to punch his own corner. I am not his spokesperson and I hope he is wrong and you are right on gold for one ;)

 

I just feel like this is a situation where nobody can know what is going to pan out and a modicum of caution wouldn't come amiss.

 

Don't you think we are due a spot of stock market deleveraging like 2008? There are so many calling for it now across the spectrum of commentators that I think it is only a matter of time. If yes and as this is the gold thread, don't you see gold being taken down a peg or two at least?

 

On another front, hope your move turns out a success and went smoothly for you.

 

Here's a bit of Deflation scare for you just in from Richard Russell

 

''The power of negative compounding will be brutal. The cost of carrying the world's debt (including the US national debt) will be devastating. It will be highly deflationary and it will crush everything in its path. There will be a frenzy for dollars -- dollars will be needed to carry or pay off debt. There will be initial pressure on gold. There will be pressure on stocks. "Safe" high quality high-yielding bonds will compete with all other investment sectors.''

 

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