GOLD

[romans holiday]

 

 

 

 

 

Pivotal point here. Will we see the completion of a Cheshire Grin _TM [repeating the pattern after the previous parabolic spike 2008] or will gold go on to new heights.

[tinecu]

Fun with fractals - looks like the rocket is off

 

 

Chart from Gold versus Paper

 

 

mmm. Nice work.

 

So reading from your chart... if paper stays the same, gold goes to $3000/toz over two years if the same move is repeated in the same time frame?

[nicejim]

mmm. Nice work.

 

So reading from your chart... if paper stays the same, gold goes to $3000/toz over two years if the same move is repeated in the same time frame?

It's a chart of the goldminers index priced in gold. It could portend a slump in gold whilst equities stay where they are.

[LauraB]

Nooooooo ! you'll put the mockers on it..

 

Which I have it seems

 

Sorry guys, it's just that I have never posted a rocket before & I thought an ooomphless toy one couldn't do any harm.

 

How long do I stand in the corner?

 

 

 

[dietcolaaddict]

Which I have it seems

 

Sorry guys, it's just that I have never posted a rocket before & I thought an ooomphless toy one couldn't do any harm.

 

How long do I stand in the corner?

 

Oh not that long.

 

Just until that Realistbear guy admits he is wrong

 

[jinbal]

It's a chart of the goldminers index priced in gold. It could portend a slump in gold whilst equities stay where they are.

 

But is that really likely? - I mean Gold miners holding price whilst the metal slumps

[electroweak]

Oh not that long.

 

Just until that Realistbear guy admits he is wrong

Speaking of RealistBear, the RBCI © is on full alert. Let's see if he's a good indicator this time!

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=2411373

(thread started about 3:30 pm UTC)

[tinecu]

It's a chart of the goldminers index priced in gold. It could portend a slump in gold whilst equities stay where they are.

 

Ahem. so I got the ratio the ratio the wrong way round.

 

So golds going to $400 (approx) if paper stays the same?

 

Seems unlikely.

 

 

[mugwump boy]

Speaking of RealistBear, the RBCI © is on full alert. Let's see if he's a good indicator this time!

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=2411373

(thread started about 3:30 pm UTC)

 

Does the RBCI operate in $ or £ ?

[mongoose]

Does the RBCI operate in $ or £ ?

 

And what does the Silver Sammy Contrary Indicator say?

[Catflap]

Fun with fractals - looks like the rocket is off

 

 

Chart from Gold versus Paper

 

Nice chart. So gold mining stocks have been in a 5 year bear market relative to the price of gold. As I see it there's more potential for a bigger percentage move in gold mining stocks than physical/ETF's.

 

[Perishabull]

Nice chart. So gold mining stocks have been in a 5 year bear market relative to the price of gold. As I see it there's more potential for a bigger percentage move in gold mining stocks than physical/ETF's.

 

I've just taken new long term positions in GDX and also GDXJ (I appreciate the timing might not be the best but wanted to fill a gap and this will be a position for years rather than months). I've been following Elliott Wave international for a while and although I think there is merit to it I am starting to think that Prechter's ultra bearish calls are simply a great form of advertising for EWI, it gets him a lot more marketing leverage (airtime on the networks) than it would if he were to call for a 15% correction for example. They are constantly pushing EWI and it's services regularly, this leads me to think there is a high turnover rate for subscribers. This year he published a chart showing how gold is a poor long-term investment, when measured against it's 80's high. That's like saying sugar has been a poor investment compared to it's previous long-term high of 66c or whatever. It smacks of denial frankly, if anyone were to tell you sugar is a bad investment because it hasn't reached it's long-term high of many years ago it would look ridiculous since you could have capitalised on the move from 9c - 30c via futures over the last 2 years. In my view Elliott waves really are only useful in conjunction with a series of other fundamental and technical analysis techniques. On it's own with sentiment metrics etc it is too narrow in assessing a market.

 

People may want to check out the following sites that I like, I'm not sure if they have been posted here before.

 

http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/

 

http://expectedreturns.blogspot.com/

[tinecu]

Nice chart. So gold mining stocks have been in a 5 year bear market relative to the price of gold. As I see it there's more potential for a bigger percentage move in gold mining stocks than physical/ETF's.

 

I guess that's a more positive way of looking at it and perhaps more realistic.

 

 

[Jake]

I've just taken new long term positions in GDX and also GDXJ (I appreciate the timing might not be the best but wanted to fill a gap and this will be a position for years rather than months). I've been following Elliott Wave international for a while and although I think there is merit to it I am starting to think that Prechter's ultra bearish calls are simply a great form of advertising for EWI, it gets him a lot more marketing leverage (airtime on the networks) than it would if he were to call for a 15% correction for example. They are constantly pushing EWI and it's services regularly, this leads me to think there is a high turnover rate for subscribers. This year he published a chart showing how gold is a poor long-term investment, when measured against it's 80's high. That's like saying sugar has been a poor investment compared to it's previous long-term high of 66c or whatever. It smacks of denial frankly, if anyone were to tell you sugar is a bad investment because it hasn't reached it's long-term high of many years ago it would look ridiculous since you could have capitalised on the move from 9c - 30c via futures over the last 2 years. In my view Elliott waves really are only useful in conjunction with a series of other fundamental and technical analysis techniques. On it's own with sentiment metrics etc it is too narrow in assessing a market.

 

People may want to check out the following sites that I like, I'm not sure if they have been posted here before.

 

http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/

 

http://expectedreturns.blogspot.com/

 

''Timing has eluded me for the last 10 years'' Prechter on Bulls and Bears recently.

 

I think his scenario is finally coming together though. We are poised for a big slide. Maybe this year, probably next IMO.

 

I am unsure of his gold call or 250-680. Silver low 2011-12.

 

Its all (EW) fundamentalism...which may be right ultimately. Socionomics is spot on, if you ask me.

 

His EW is such a broad spectrum with so many varying degrees of wave, and cycles within waves that to the uninitiated it is difficult to adhere to. It is not really a system, more of a description. No wonder he is not a brokerage firm! But social science, might be the correct interpretation nd approach. EW may well be the engine of life. It is difficult to predict the When in all of this.

 

I suggest mixing gold and silver cash and freehold property. Plus whatever you want to play with.

 

Prechter, Dent, Gordon, Hoye, Morgan. They all talk sense in their ways. You just have to pick 'n' mix, IMO.

 

I understand your post 100% though.

[tl8177]

Goldmoney now offers gold in a HongKong vault.

[drbubb]

What is PHYS ?

PHYS - Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE ARCA)

 

Sprott Launching Physical Gold Trust

It was only a matter of time. Sprott Asset Management has jumped in the recent gold fund pool by filing a preliminary prospectus in the US. While hedge fund Paulson & Co's new gold fund is aimed at betting on gold related investments, Sprott's offering is a little different. Eric Sprott's firm is aiming to launch a $575 million gold bullion fund that will store physical gold and offer investors easy exposure to the metal. This could easily serve as a competitor to the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) that is currently a popular way for investors to get exposure to the precious metal. This really should come as no surprise given that Sprott had previously penned a piece entitled Gold: The Ultimate Triple-A Asset. Not to mention, their portfolio is littered with metals and mining plays.

 

If their new product is approved, it will be traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker PHYS and on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the ticker PHY. The initial public offering price is to be set at $10 per unit. Sprott's physical gold trust is expected to hold 97% of assets in physical gold bullion in London Good Delivery bar form and will not invest in certificates or other instruments. This fund's goal is to be a play purely on physical gold. Their gold will be stored at the Royal Canadian Mint and unitholders will be able to redeem their units for physical gold bullion on a monthly basis if they so desire. Additionally, as of right now they will not make regular cash distributions to the unitholders.

 

In summary, it looks like $4.4 billion Sprott Asset Management has entered into the gold fund game as a direct competitor to the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). While Sprott is targeting a $575 million fund launch, they will have a long way to go to catch up to exchange traded fund GLD as it currently sports a market cap of $40.5 billion. We'll have to see if their offering takes off as Sprott is a relatively household name in the asset management business. For more thoughts from Sprott on the topic of gold, check out their special report on the precious metal.

 

Read more: http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/12/sprott-...l#ixzz0hFspwVLa

 

== ==

 

The option to take physical delivery from the Fund is something new, which brings this one giant step closer to action physical bullion than GLD. I have recently acquired a low 6-figure holding in Gold thru this fund, and may use GLD for options, and PHYS as my long term gold holding.

[drbubb]

Goldmoney now offers gold in a HongKong vault.

That is good news !

[drbubb]

Sprott's buying ... is one of the things that has helped Gold prices in recent days

 

++ And look at that Premium! (4.85%)

 

Eric Sprott Has Purchased Nearly 9 Tonnes Of Gold Bullion This Week

 

Jesse's Cafe Americain | Mar. 4, 2010,

 

The Sprott Physical Bullion Trust (PHYS) is now holding 286,870 ounces of gold, with a market value of $327,003,510. The estimated net proceeds of their IPO are approximately $390,000,000, possibly higher depending on total fees for the IPO and initial bullion purchases.

 

They have now purchased 8.923 tonnes of gold bullion since last Friday (at 32,150.746 Troy ounces per metric tonne).

 

The total units outstanding are 40,000,000 for a Net Asset Value of 9.50 including cash and bullion. With the price of the Trust closing at 9.96 today, it is at about 4.85% premium according to their website.

 

By way of comparison, the Central Gold Trust (GTU) closed at a premium of 8.2%. This is on the high side, reflecting gold's recent run higher, and a flight to safety over recent concerns regarding sovereign debt. Gold has reached record prices in the euro and the British pound.

 

/see: http://www.businessinsider.com/eric-sprott...his-week-2010-3

[drbubb]

Hi Dr B. If I remember right, you need 350-450 oz to take physical possession via Sprott. Is that right?EDIT: hmm. not sure. Don't think I like the look of it now!

I think the ability to obtain physical on demand is EXTREMELY important, but you know I am a bit of a bug.

Chris

 

PHYS - The redemption feature works as follows:

 

An investor in the fund may take physical delivery of a minimum of one 400 ounce bar by contacting the fund on the 15th of each month outlining the details of the delivery request including number of bars and so forth. It’s up to the holder to make arrangements for delivery and this can be cumbersome. However, an investor may opt to arrange with Brinks or another armored car service to pick-up the gold and transfer it to another storage provider who will take and hold London Good Delivery bars. Currently this might cost $2500 per bar which isn’t that costly given prevailing value of a bar at around $450,000. Or, if you’re feeling man enough, you can pick bars up yourself and toss them in the trunk of your mini. Um, bring your shotgun.

 

TAX Advantage

What separates PHYS from other products like [[GTU]] (Central Gold Trust) and [[CEF]] (Central Fund Canada) is the redemption feature plus perhaps certain tax advantages.

 

The tax advantage per the prospectus states: “Any gains realized on the sale of units by an investor may be taxable as long-term capital gains (at a maximum rate of 15% under current law)”. This would then avoid the 28% tax on collectables also under current law. There may be circumstances where this can all change obviously.

 

/more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PHYS-Another...172888.html?x=0

[nicejim]

You can't eat gold and long-term we all need to generate some kind of income from our investments. With that in mind, the charts of houses or land priced in gold are a great help in deciding when to sell. The Dow-priced-in-gold chart is less helpful though because, whereas the yield from a house or a field is pretty much static (if you're living in your own house and growing your own food at least), the yield from equities is quite volatile. You don't benefit from gold doubling if yields are cut in two so I decided to see how it's played out historically.

 

Here's the chart and data:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0As...lE&hl=en_GB

 

On 9th March last year the historic yield was 4.2% and gold was about $930, which would give an income of $39/oz, which is well above average. Dividends were expected to take a hit, and the ETF "IVV" actually paid 3.18% in the last year if you bought at the low. That's $29.57/oz, which is good but not great.

 

Does '98-'09 look like '61-'76?

 

 

Just noticed that payments to shareholders rose about 50% in real terms from 1961 to 2007. Payments to Chief Executives rose about 1000% relative to average workers in 3 decades.

[sid]

some alarming news for gold investors not covered by others, wonder why!

 

 

 

Largest Private Refinery Discovers Gold-Plated Tungsten Bar

By Patrick A. Heller on March 2nd, 2010

 

 

 

Recently, the German television station ProSieben ran a news story covering W. C. Heraeus in Hanau, Germany, the world’s largest privately owned refinery. In the story, Wilfried Hörner, the head of the gold foundry, shows a 500 gram bar (16.0755 troy ounces) received from an unidentified bank. The bar had the right physical dimensions to be an authentic gold bar, but one of the Heraeus employees suspected something funny. After the bar was cut in half, you can see that the inside is tungsten, with only a coating of gold on the outside.

 

You can watch this news story on You Tube, where it was posted February 28, at

.

 

Last fall, Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics in Toronto reported that China’s central bank had discovered some 400-ounce gold-plated tungsten bars among those it had recently received from bonded warehouses. It was later learned that at least four counterfeit bars were found and that all had come from sources in the United States. As suspicions grow about counterfeit bars among those held in bonded warehouses for delivery against either COMEX or London Bullion Market Association contracts or shares of exchange traded funds, investors could panic. So, you can understand that there has been almost a total blackout on news coverage on this story.

 

Tungsten is the only lower value metal that has a specific density close enough to gold to fabricate passable counterfeit pieces of the same size and weight as genuine coins and ingots. Over the years, there have been a few isolated reports of smaller coins and bars found to have been drilled to remove some of the gold which was replaced with tungsten. However, it is far more profitable to fabricate larger original bars of tungsten that are then gold-plated.

 

Thus far, the commodity exchanges have disclaimed of any responsibility for the purity of the gold bars they are delivering against contracts. As stories of gold-plated tungsten bars in bonded warehouses continue to appear, I expect the commodity exchanges are going to be forced to modify their business practices to provide a guaranty of purity for any bars they deliver.

 

The process of non-destructive testing of bars to check for counterfeits involves very expensive equipment and is time consuming. It is beyond the means of almost all investors and coin dealers. For maximize safety, I recommend purchasing only smaller size coins and ingots, say two ounces of gold content or less, and only deal with a company that has a lengthy track record and in-house staff expertise (unlike the bank that took in this counterfeit 500 gram bar). If you have purchased coins and ingots from unknown sources, you may want have them checked out by an experienced independent third party.

 

In contrast, the last things I would want to invest in are large gold bars stored in bonded warehouses in unallocated storage. If it turns out that the warehouse holding your bars has too many counterfeit bars in their inventory, it could go bankrupt. That would leave holders of unallocated inventory as unsecured creditors of the bankrupt company, and not as owners of gold.

 

Because the existence of counterfeit gold-plated tungsten bars could have such a huge impact on the financial markets, there is a huge potential for deception and misinformation to be passed around. Be very careful about automatically believing any story you may hear. For your own protection, it would be better to take physical possession of the smaller sizes of gold coins and bars now, and know that what you own genuine solid gold.

 

Patrick A. Heller owns Liberty Coin Service in Lansing, Michigan and writes "Liberty's Outlook," a monthly newsletter covering rare coins and precious metals. Past issues can be found online at http://www.libertycoinservice.com/ Pat Heller is also the gold market commentator for Numismatic News. Past columns online at http://numismaster.com/

 

 

http://news.coinupdate.com/largest-private...gsten-bar-0171/

[grumpy-old-man]

Please read the text below & link provided for Tungsten related worries.

I always ask myself who benefits from 'Tunsgten' bar propaganda ??

 

I am not saying that fake bars & coins don't get made, but what if TPTB want to herd people that MUST buy gold ionto ETF's rather than physical??

I think any experienced bullion trader would spot a fake gold coin/bar a mile away.

 

 

my bold

clicky link

 

 

“Nick from ShareLynx Gold passed on to me today the following from the producers of the video (all personal info was removed by him before forwarding):

 

vielen Dank für Ihre Anfrage.

MANY THANKS FOR YOUR ENQUIRY

 

Das Video ist tatsächlich bei Argor in der Schweiz aufgenommen worden, allerdings in einem ganz anderen Zusammenhang.

 

THE VIDEO WAS EFFECTIVELY TAKEN AT ARGOR IN SWITZERLAND, ALTHOUGH IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CONTEXT

 

Unten eine englischsprachige Erklärung hierzu, die Ihnen einige weitere Hintergrundinformationen gibt. Der Barren wurde übrigens schon vor über 10 Jahren bei Argor zum Einschmelzen abgegeben; sofort entdeckt und aus dem Verkehr gezogen. Gefälschte Barren kommen extrem selten vor, unsere Kollegen in den Schmelzen können sich an keinen Fall in den letzten Jahren erinnern, in denen ein solcher bei Heraeus zur Aufarbeitung eingeliefert wurde.

 

BELOW AN EXPLANATION IN ENGLISH TO THIS ISSUE, THAT WILL GIVE YOU SOME FURTHER BACKGROUND INFORMATION. THE BARS, BY THE WAY, WERE DELIVERED TO ARGOR ALREADY MORE THAN TEN YEARS AGO FOR SMELTING; WERE IMMEDIATELY DISCOVERED AND WITHDRAWN FROM CIRCULATION. COUNTERFEIT BARS ARE EXTREMELY RARE, OUR COLLEAGUES FROM THE FOUNDRY CANNOT RECALL A SINGLE INSTANCE IN THE LAST YEARS IN WHICH SUCH A BAR WAS DELIVERED TO HERAEUS FOR PROCESSING.

 

Statement:

 

The video shown on www.youtube.com is an extract from the weekly German television broadcast Galileo that discusses scientific topics. This particular broadcast covered the topic of gold including testing the purity of gold bars.

The presentation of the scene of (gold) production at the Argor Heraeus refinery – that was put on youtube.com in another context – when seen together with the text could therefore give an incorrect impression.

 

The false bar shown in the broadcast was a bar not produced by Heraeus; it was sent to the company for refining and detected already at the time of delivery. Compliance Management at Argor-Heraeus is very important and plays an important role at the company. Among others, it has very stringent rules for handling and dealing with precious metals.

 

Therefore, and combined also with strong and effective quality controls, Argor-Heraeus is able to assure the authenticity of gold bars produced by the company itself at all times.

 

Internet: www.heraeus-edelmetallhandel.de

Heraeus Metallhandelsgesellschaft mbH

Heraeusstr. 12-14, 63450 Hanau, Germany

 

So the video is about ten year old fake bars. Another example of commentators jumping the gun and hyping a story without any fact/background checking. To be fair, it really is only someone like Nick who has a worldwide well-connected subscriber base who can do that sort of checking.

 

I also find it interesting that the video Zero Hedge linked is the only upload of YouTube user wolframgold who only joined on 28 Feb 2010. This leads me to a conspiracy I am surprised none of the more rabid commentators have come up with yet, namely that the source of the tungsten rumours since October 2009 is either a refinery/mint trying to scare people away from the secondary market and ebay and into only buying new bars and coins OR producers of testing equipment OR producers of tamper proof packaging!

 

Nick also passed on to me a link to BullionAnalysis.com, which has some nice pictures of fake Englehard silver bars that their equipment would have detected. This does undercut RunToGold's conclusion from the tungsten scare that "if one is concerned about the quality of their gold then the other precious metals like silver and platinum are good alternatives".

 

I would also disagree with RunToGold's statement that "detecting a high-quality fake tungsten gold bar would be extremely difficult. It would likely require significant and material alterations to the bar being tested and this would negatively affect the marketability if its hallmark veracity were vindicated."

 

Ultrasonic testers will do the job without having to damage a bar. I quote some techo stuff from KK&S Instruments:

 

The 1090 Flaw Detector allows you to look into the Bar for voids/defects as well as UT velocity which is determined the products elastic modulus i.e Tungsten Velocity is 5183-5460m/sec and Gold is 3,240m/sec. For example if you calibrate for Au then the testing Tungsten bar of the same thickness, the UT thickness would read approximately half the actual because of the speeding-up of the sound through the Tungsten.

 

Problem is that it does require some technical knowledge to use the machine, so out of reach of retail investors and small coin dealers. It is probably prohibitively expensive as well.

 

I also think that it is fairly likely that the unintended consequence of commentators pushing the tungsten story is to drive mom & pop newbie gold investors into the ETFs. Making the decision to buying gold is a big change for the average investor and you can be sure they are seeking reassurance. Sow doubts in their mind about the "dangers" of physical gold and you will push them into ETFs, because mom & pop see them as regulated and thus safe. The very opposite of what many goldbug commentators would want. I doubt they think about these consequences when they are looking for their next headline.

__________________

Disclosure: All comments here are my personal opinion and not endorsed by the Perth Mint (who I work for) in any way. “

[electroweak]

Can't imagine that bar doing too well when you do the 'ping' test, can you?

Enlarge the iage, and look at the pellets inside it!

[nicejim]

What it says to me is that Heraeus can spot a fake a mile off and won't sell one to you. There's nothing here about the 400oz bars, and nothing for which the only explanation is orchestration by TPTB.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=158631

[Fortune]

So who's willing to make the jump to the Hong Kong vault at GM?