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Hi,

 

I am wanting to buy a bit of gold as a hedge against inflation/hyperinflation. I have looked into it over the past few days and am thinking about buying gold sovereigns from ATS Bullion or Coinvest, would you recommend either or both of these dealers? Also, I haven't been able to find out why different Gold Sovereigns with the same gold content are priced differently on the same site (there are some at £180 and some at £190 on coinvest), is it worth paying the extra £10 (would I get back more than the approx. 2% extra I paid for the £190 coin when I came to sell it) or is it just the rarity value that increases the price?

 

I am a novice and so would appreciate any advice anyone thinks is relevant to my situation. I live in the UK and as I say I am doing this to (hopefully) protect part of my savings as I am saving for a house but with the way things are going it looks like I may be waiting a year or more before prices come down to a reasonable level.

 

Thanks in advance.

I would always recommend buying a few coins, I have recently bought from coininvest direct and the service was very good. I would also recommend using goldmoney.com, your gold or silver is stored allocated in vaults in London or Zurich and they will buy back from you at spot whenever you like.

 

 

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Hi,

 

I am wanting to buy a bit of gold as a hedge against inflation/hyperinflation. I have looked into it over the past few days and am thinking about buying gold sovereigns from ATS Bullion or Coinvest, would you recommend either or both of these dealers? Also, I haven't been able to find out why different Gold Sovereigns with the same gold content are priced differently on the same site (there are some at £180 and some at £190 on coinvest), is it worth paying the extra £10 (would I get back more than the approx. 2% extra I paid for the £190 coin when I came to sell it) or is it just the rarity value that increases the price?

 

...

I have ordered from CoinInvestDirect several times and I am happy with their service. Note that I am located in Finland but many in the UK have posted here that they are happy with their service.

 

I think the sovs differ in price according to demand - older ones are a bit more expensive, presumably as people are willing to pay a bit more. Note that CID lists their buy price alongside their sell price which gives an idea of what you could sell for. It's likely that you would not get back the extra when you sell.

 

I think the price of UK houses will drop in gold, possibly in GBP also but inflation fights against that (I still guess the crash will kick off again probably after the election. The UK is in a sorry financial state.)

 

Note that in the UK sovs and Britannias are not subject to capital gains tax as they are classed as legal tender coins. So for UK residents they could be the best. Sovs tend to be cheap on a per gramme basis at least the last time I checked at CID.

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If only you could agree to say hyper increases in money supply might lead to hyper inflation

 

Related to this style of debate we have:

 

1. Moderator goldfinger saying it is irrational to give any reasons why hyperinflation cannot be prevented.

 

2. Moderator RH saying that hyperinflationists are irrational nutters

 

Do people want a debate?

 

:blink:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=146311

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In a hyper inflation of assets as yields tend to zero, where would you put your money? Why would you invest?

 

This was the sort of situation faced by Japan which lead to the carry trade.

 

What happens when carry trade options also tend to zero?

 

So you will have had some sort of hyperinflation - i.e. it's already happened but it's difficult for us to see it because we've lived with it and it's been up so close.

 

Pension crises as costs rise as bond yields fall, Equitable going bust because they can't meet 3% return a year in low inflation environment, endowments failing to pay off mortgages, btl's with negative yields.

 

With even more loose money flooding the system, yields could fall even more - witness stock market rises.

 

Even as cpi remains relatively benign. What you then have is lots of cash around but no worthwhile home. What happens then?

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In a hyper inflation of assets as yields tend to zero, where would you put your money? Why would you invest?

 

This was the sort of situation faced by Japan which lead to the carry trade.

 

What happens when carry trade options also tend to zero?

 

So you will have had some sort of hyperinflation - i.e. it's already happened but it's difficult for us to see it because we've lived with it and it's been up so close.

 

Pension crises as costs rise as bond yields fall, Equitable going bust because they can't meet 3% return a year in low inflation environment, endowments failing to pay off mortgages, btl's with negative yields.

 

With even more loose money flooding the system, yields could fall even more - witness stock market rises.

 

Even as cpi remains relatively benign. What you then have is lots of cash around but no worthwhile home. What happens then?

It depends on whether you see a future of abundant liquidity or one of scarce liquidity, doesn't it?

 

I have my chips placed on the latter. The CBs are attempting the former but I think they will fail.

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It depends on whether you see a future of abundant liquidity or one of scarce liquidity, doesn't it?

 

I have my chips placed on the latter. The CBs are attempting the former but I think they will fail.

 

 

My point is let's consider a world where liquidity is infinite and that cpi remains low because of low labour costs.

 

Yields tend to zero and rates remain v. low.

 

But no hyperinflation potentially even in this sort of situation which is supposed to provide the conditions for such.

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My point is let's consider a world where liquidity is infinite and that cpi remains low because of low labour costs.

 

Yields tend to zero and rates remain v. low.

 

But no hyperinflation potentially even in this sort of situation which is supposed to provide the conditions for such.

Not quite following you... if liquidity was infinite wouldn't that mean the currency is worthless... or would soon become worthless?

 

Maybe you just mean if liquidity remained high, or there was constant excess liquidity. Then I guess asset prices would keep rising.... following by a general inflation in everything, wages, consumables etc. Hyper-inflation.

 

Do you think it is possible for CBs to maintain excess liquidity? I'm thinking it is only a short-term fix as investors are fooled into spending/investing.

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My point is let's consider a world where liquidity is infinite and that cpi remains low because of low labour costs.

 

Yields tend to zero and rates remain v. low.

 

But no hyperinflation potentially even in this sort of situation which is supposed to provide the conditions for such.

 

If liquidity is infinite then money has no value. So liquidity has to be less than infinite.

 

Edit; RH beat me to it.

 

But RH

 

Do you think it is possible for CBs to maintain excess liquidity? I'm thinking it is only a short-term fix as investors are fooled into spending/investing.

 

Dont be fooled into thinking that cash in a bank cannot be made worthless. It can be. And if the cash is not spent then that will be the outcome. Your theory that 'they wont do that is not based on reason. It is an irrational belief to think you will not be encouraged to spend by any means necessary to prevent deflation

 

But this spending will support asset prices generally and aspects of this crisis will no longer apply because asset holders with debt will no longer be under water and will feel happier spending and lenders will feel happier lending.

 

All in all the certain outcome that money will be spent means that interest rates will rise when inflation rises. Inflation will rise. Or the world will end and gold will go to the biggest thug.

 

 

 

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Dont be fooled into thinking that cash in a bank cannot be made worthless. It can be. And if the cash is not spent then that will be the outcome. Your theory that 'they wont do that is not based on reason. It is an irrational belief to think you will not be encouraged to spend by any means necessary to prevent deflation

 

But this spending will support asset prices generally and aspects of this crisis will no longer apply because asset holders with debt will no longer be under water and will feel happier spending and lenders will feel happier lending.

 

All in all the certain outcome that money will be spent means that interest rates will rise when inflation rises. Inflation will rise. Or the world will end and gold will go to the biggest thug.

I half agree with you. In the short term, investors are/ will be pressured to get out of cash... or even carry on leveraging up... but I think that economic fundamentals will at some point trump investor "psychology/ ideology". By only going into new asset bubbles, the money will not filter down to the real economy and consumers, which will continue to exhibit deflationary behaviour. I think it reasonable to believe that the debt/ credit deflation will overwhelm the finite resources of CBs to reflate. Basically, I think the greater population, if not investors, have woken up from their monetary slumber. Investors are, by and large, still under the spell of monetarism.

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I half agree with you. In the short term, investors are/ will be pressured to get out of cash... or even carry on leveraging up... but I think that economic fundamentals will at some point trump investor "psychology/ ideology". By only going into new asset bubbles, the money will not filter down to the real economy and consumers, which will continue to exhibit deflationary behaviour. I think it reasonable to believe that the debt/ credit deflation will overwhelm the finite resources of CBs to reflate. Basically, I think the greater population, if not investors, have woken up from their monetary slumber. Investors are, by and large, still under the spell of monetarism.

 

Robert Mugagbe has shown it can be done.

 

I know he was Oxford educated and amonst the elite but do you really think a determined government cannot do the same?

 

But at the moment they dont need to. Many of the doom and gloom stories about deflation have just not happened as predicted.

 

 

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Not quite following you... if liquidity was infinite wouldn't that mean the currency is worthless... or would soon become worthless?

 

Maybe you just mean if liquidity remained high, or there was constant excess liquidity. Then I guess asset prices would keep rising.... following by a general inflation in everything, wages, consumables etc. Hyper-inflation.

 

Do you think it is possible for CBs to maintain excess liquidity? I'm thinking it is only a short-term fix as investors are fooled into spending/investing.

 

I consider liquidity to be infinite not because there exists an infintely large number of notes - but where there is more money (in all its forms) than there is worthwhile investments. This can occur in a variety of ways.

 

Regardless of how it comes about, how does that money (in all its forms) stop becoming worthless, especially if you are getting to the point where it actually costs to hold anything including cash?

 

On the surface this looks to be very similar to a deflationary scenario - except there exists a surfeit of money (in all its forms) as opposed to a shortage.

 

It is a situation where demand is more than met by supply in everything. This may be triggered by very low wage costs, very high profits leading to excess supply and depressed demand eventually.

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I consider liquidity to be infinite not because there exists an infintely large number of notes - but where there is more cash than there is worthwhile investments. This can occur in a variety of ways.

 

Regardless of how it comes about, how does that money stop becoming worthless, especially if you are getting to the point where it actually costs to hold anything including cash?

 

On the surface this looks to be very similar to a deflationary scenario - except there exists a surfeit of money as opposed to a shortage.

 

It is a situation where demand is more than met by supply in everything. This may be triggered by very low wage costs, very high profits leading to excess supply and depressed demand eventually.

 

Obviously there is not an infinite amount of cash

 

Please use use clearer and more correct english language to say what you mean.

 

Credit is created by levering a relatively small amount of cash.

 

 

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I have changed it to help you.

 

It seems you like playing games.

 

I think the subject of deflation is worth discussing even if you do not

 

If you have an opinion let us clearly hear what it is, using language that makes sense to people who share a common understanding of words that are used in dictionaries or can be agreed upon by readers and listeners.

 

Infinite money suppply must mean that money is valueless.

 

Infinite does not mean very big

 

Do you mean very big?

 

Or do you mean potentially infinite?

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I consider liquidity to be infinite not because there exists an infintely large number of notes - but where there is more money (in all its forms) than there is worthwhile investments. This can occur in a variety of ways.

 

Regardless of how it comes about, how does that money (in all its forms) stop becoming worthless, especially if you are getting to the point where it actually costs to hold anything including cash?

 

On the surface this looks to be very similar to a deflationary scenario - except there exists a surfeit of money (in all its forms) as opposed to a shortage.

 

It is a situation where demand is more than met by supply in everything. This may be triggered by very low wage costs, very high profits leading to excess supply and depressed demand eventually.

I can see why an investor sees, or imagines, an abundance of money. But ask yourself what the in-debted consumer sees. I'd say from their perspective, they see scarcity and will behave accordingly. I guess where we differ is that I put more emphasis on consumer behaviour in its efficacy to shape the economy than that of monetary theory and central banks.

 

If there is excess supply, and accordingly less demand... then prices will fall... and cash will come to be considered more valuable by the general population [thinking makes it so]. This is how cash stops becoming worth...less, contra to [legally restrained] CB efforts.

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It seems you like playing games.

 

I think the subject of deflation is worth discussing even if you do not

 

If you have an opinion let us clearly hear what it is, using language that makes sense to people who share a common understanding of words that are used in dictionaries or can be agreed upon by readers and listeners.

 

Infinite money suppply must mean that money is valueless.

 

Infinite does not mean very big

 

Do you mean very big?

 

Or do you mean potentially infinite?

 

 

You can't have a nice debate on this forum anymore.

 

I think I'll leave.

 

Dr Bubb - please can you delete my i.d.

 

Thankyou.

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Gold shares (HUI) ... update

 

zzzzu.gif

 

HUI made a nice clear "double top" last week.

 

I missed it, because I was following another Gold stock index : GDX-chart

...which did not quite make it to a Double top, falling short by $1-2.

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I can see why an investor sees, or imagines, an abundance of money. But ask yourself what the in-debted consumer sees. I'd say from their perspective, they see scarcity and will behave accordingly. I guess where we differ is that I put more emphasis on consumer behaviour in its efficacy to shape the economy than that of monetary theory and central banks.

 

If there is excess supply, and accordingly less demand... then prices will fall... and cash will come to be considered more valuable by the general population [thinking makes it so]. This is how cash stops becoming worth...less, contra to [legally restrained] CB efforts.

 

RH

 

As a moderator with an interest in deflation it would be helpful i think if you could ask people to consider that the money supply is not some abstract set of numbers but is rather our money supply.

 

When a bank has a huge pile of borrowed money from a government that is not spent that sits in an account as a number i dont think we can say this is truelly part of our money supply.

 

There seems therefore a clear difference.

 

there is our spending money and there is the governments money that they want us to spend that belongs to them or is controlled by them.

 

Endlessly this board wants to say the governments money is inflation as if this difference is absolutely irrelevant.

 

We need moderators or somebody to deal with this.

 

Infortunately as i said earlier moderator Goldfinger has declared it is irrational to say that deflation is possible

 

An almost impossible position on a board if people do want to discuss rather than ramp their chosen positions

 

And apparently an active group on this board seems to think that leadership on the board is something to be mocked and attacked

 

Is there a way forwards??

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RH

 

As a moderator with an interest in deflation it would be helpful i think if you could ask people to consider that the money supply is not some abstract set of numbers but is rather our money supply.

 

When a bank has a huge pile of borrowed money from a government that is not spent that sits in an account as a number i dont think we can say this is truelly part of our money supply.

Good point. I like to draw a distinction between base money and then the [real] money supply..... which has to be something that is actually supplied to the real economy.

 

OK people, can you please consider this point? :)

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RH

 

As a moderator with an interest in deflation it would be helpful i think if you could ask people to consider that the money supply is not some abstract set of numbers but is rather our money supply.

 

When a bank has a huge pile of borrowed money from a government that is not spent that sits in an account as a number i dont think we can say this is truelly part of our money supply.

 

There seems therefore a clear difference.

 

there is our spending money and there is the governments money that they want us to spend that belongs to them or is controlled by them.

 

Endlessly this board wants to say the governments money is inflation as if this difference is absolutely irrelevant.

 

We need moderators or somebody to deal with this.

 

Infortunately as i said earlier moderator Goldfinger has declared it is irrational to say that deflation is possible

 

An almost impossible position on a board if people do want to discuss rather than ramp their chosen positions

 

And apparently an active group on this board seems to think that leadership on the board is something to be mocked and attacked

 

Is there a way forwards??

Mods can you move this post as I think it really should have been posted on the "I love papaer thread".

 

I can't believe for one moment that they would have meant to post this on a gold thread.

 

Ta in anticipation!!

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Mods can you move this post as I think it really should have been posted on the "I love papaer thread".

 

I can't believe for one moment that they would have meant to post this on a gold thread.

 

Ta in anticipation!!

The last couple of pages have got a little off topic... which does happen from time to time to threads... but these anomalies are also known to self-correct. :)

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OK gold price in context!

 

currently $1139/oz week 50

 

That is still roughly a gain of 10% from week 45 even taking in to account the last couple of horror days LOL!

 

If Gold were to fall by another 10% or so it would still be back where it was some two months ago.

 

Seems like a good investment to me.

 

Dose anyone know of any bull markets that have never had a correction.?

 

I must confess I don't.

 

The facts clearly favour the bulls at this stage so the paper lovers should be a little more humble at this stage (one swallow does not a summer make).

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