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The cartel must be getting really desperate now, each time they try to take the market down it just pops straight back up, day after day. They are running out of days now, the shorts have until Monday to cover as it is options expiry day. If the cartel has to buy to cover in a rising market this is going to be sight to behold.

 

We should see some real fireworks over the next week IMO.

they are maybe losing control without the Asians on side - i wonder what deal could be done - methinks none but you never know

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So we are all ok investing in gold, until they find a huge field of gold somewhere....hmmmmm. :unsure:

Think we are safe that they aren't going to find another huge field of gold, discoveries have been in decline for years. I guess if we are to worry about anything it would be RB's claim that it will be manufactured by knowledge gained from the Large Hadron Collider.

 

 

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Think we are safe that they aren't going to find another huge field of gold, discoveries have been in decline for years. I guess if we are to worry about anything it would be RB's claim that it will be manufactured by knowledge gained from the Large Hadron Collider.

Not worried about the LHC - trust me.

More worried about (say) seawater being used to extract gold!

Fusion power could make this feasible I suppose, but that's not the LHC.

We are 20+ years away from sustainable hot fusion at least.

 

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they are maybe losing control without the Asians on side - i wonder what deal could be done - methinks none but you never know

I think the things being discussed with the chinese currently is the new super sovereign currency and possibly the tungsten bar situation. Can't see them letting the gold price fall through a deal with the states, due to the fact that they have been encouraging their own population to buy it. This is going quiet well from stuff I have been reading. Can you see them losing face by letting the price slide to help out the yanks?

 

Chinese consumers embrace gold

By Chris Flood , Financial Times, 19 Nov 2009

 

Chinese consumers’ demand for gold reached record levels in the third quarter as the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China on October 1 provided a boost to sales of jewellery and commemorative items.

 

Consumer demand for gold in China reached 120.2 tonnes in the third quarter, up 12 per cent on the same period last year, while jewellery demand increased 8 per cent to 93.5 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council which released its latest supply and demand update on Thursday.

 

The rapid growth in China’s gold jewellery market following years of import and price controls runs in parallel with a huge expansion in the country’s platinum jewellery market where demand is on course to double this year, according to a report by Johnson Matthey released earlier this week.

 

However, China was the sole market to see positive growth in gold jewellery demand in the third quarter with large year-on-year falls being recorded in India and the Middle East.

 

India, still the world’s largest gold jewellery market, saw demand fall to 111.6 tonnes in the third quarter, down 42 per cent year-on-year.

 

The WGC said high gold prices were the biggest constraint on India’s gold jewellery demand along with the poor monsoon which affected incomes in rural areas.

 

However, jewellery demand in India has shown an improvement in 2009 after dropping to its lowest levels in at least twenty years in the first three months of this year.

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I genuinely welcome these kinds of comments (BTW, there's more than one economist being quoted and all are mainstream). So long as most 'experts' think it's a duff investment we should see a lid kept on retail speculation. This allows the minority to add to their position without worrying that they're caught up in some frenzy. I have no idea of how things will play out but I would not be surprised if gold sold off (maybe even heavily) in the next 6-12 months. Equally I would expect it to bounce back relatively quickly and still believe it will go significantly higher over the next 5 years or so. The idea, to me at least, that central banks/governments are nursing the economy back to health and will remove the stimulus when we're back on our feet is laughable. Here's a link to the BoE minutes - they have no idea what they're doing, no one does. As long as this trend stays in place, I think gold will continue its ascent but equally I do not rule out some sharp pullbacks along the way.

I completely agree with what you said, don't get me wrong with my bullishness. I see as the price goes higher the volatility will increase as we have seen in 2008.

 

I also do think when we enter the mania stage that the price will increase exponentially, but will also have massive drops of hundreds at dollars at times. This bull is going to be very difficult to ride, few will manage to hang on for the whole of it.

 

I just don't see we will have another massive correction immediately after the massive correction of the last year. Think the price will be allowed to increase before they are able cause enough insecurity again. But that is just my thoughts I encourage everyone to make up their own minds.

 

 

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I'm not convinced that we should be worried about RBs claim to anything to do with gold at present.

Don't worry I was only joking, I just forgot to put a :lol: on the end. :P

 

 

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This bull is going to be very difficult to ride, few will manage to hang on for the whole of it.

 

I agree with that Pixel8r: to me, it is the key point.

 

I allowed myself to be thrown off the gold bull earlier in the year (not completely but about 30% of my holding). Of course, I regret that now as we revisit the GBP highs. Part of me thinks I'd have been better off not listening to Howe St, Financial Sense, reading GEI, Moneyweek, the Economist etc... because it leads me to constantly feel pressure to fine tune my holdings. To ride this gold bull I think one of the following two approaches will probably suit most: (a) either constantly keep on top of the gold market and all its intricacies (the way you do Pixel8r) or (B) buy and hold and try not to think about it too much .

 

The latter probably suits me better but then again I enjoy reading all the interesting stuff on gold which people post here.

 

The other strange thing is that despite being fairly well versed in and agreeing with most of the arguments for holding gold and dumping GBP I still hold at least 50% of my wealth in this currency. I guess the fiat culture is ingrained in me, even though I can see that, in long run, its future looks bleak.

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Bob Hoye amongst others have a lot to answer for!

 

I agree with that Pixel8r: to me, it is the key point.

 

I allowed myself to be thrown off the gold bull earlier in the year (not completely but about 30% of my holding). Of course, I regret that now as we revisit the GBP highs. Part of me thinks I'd have been better off not listening to Howe St, Financial Sense, reading GEI, Moneyweek, the Economist etc... because it leads me to constantly feel pressure to fine tune my holdings. To ride this gold bull I think one of the following two approaches will probably suit most: (a) either constantly keep on top of the gold market and all its intricacies (the way you do Pixel8r) or ( B) buy and hold and try not to think about it too much .

 

The latter probably suits me better but then again I enjoy reading all the interesting stuff on gold which people post here.

 

The other strange thing is that despite being fairly well versed in and agreeing with most of the arguments for holding gold and dumping GBP I still hold at least 50% of my wealth in this currency. I guess the fiat culture is ingrained in me, even though I can see that, in long run, its future looks bleak.

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Bob Hoye amongst others have a lot to answer for!

 

Indeed he does!

 

I still think he has a lot to offer, but his propensity to rewrite history (in terms of his predictions) concerns me.

 

He was spectacularly right last year but of cource past performance is not a guide to future returns etc....

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I agree with that Pixel8r: to me, it is the key point.

 

I allowed myself to be thrown off the gold bull earlier in the year (not completely but about 30% of my holding). Of course, I regret that now as we revisit the GBP highs. Part of me thinks I'd have been better off not listening to Howe St, Financial Sense, reading GEI, Moneyweek, the Economist etc... because it leads me to constantly feel pressure to fine tune my holdings. To ride this gold bull I think one of the following two approaches will probably suit most: (a) either constantly keep on top of the gold market and all its intricacies (the way you do Pixel8r) or (B) buy and hold and try not to think about it too much .

 

The latter probably suits me better but then again I enjoy reading all the interesting stuff on gold which people post here.

 

The other strange thing is that despite being fairly well versed in and agreeing with most of the arguments for holding gold and dumping GBP I still hold at least 50% of my wealth in this currency. I guess the fiat culture is ingrained in me, even though I can see that, in long run, its future looks bleak.

Buy and hold and ignore everything is one thing that Jim Sinclair once said would be a easy way to preserve your buying power. I actually monitor things because I am trying to increase my holdings during this bull run, by swapping metals and trading mining stocks. I basically have the buy and hold mentality, but do research to try and time the market for swapping rather than selling. I have never converted gold or silver back to fiat during the last 3 years. I run my own advertising photography business which during the last year has been very quiet at times, which tends to give me a lot of time for research.

 

I basically have around 70% in bullion and 30% in mining equity. The bullion I have decided I am not going to touch, but I do try at times to trade the stocks.

 

I would be very worried about keeping 50% of my wealth in GBP, but I understand the need to keep some fiat cash. Maybe you should look at some other currencies to diversify into. I get the feeling the pound is going to take a big hit after the election next year.

 

 

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I would be very worried about keeping 50% of my wealth in GBP, but I understand the need to keep some fiat cash. Maybe you should look at some other currencies to diversify into. I get the feeling the pound is going to take a big hit after the election next year.

 

Agreed, I need to get more moved out of GBP.

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Is anyone having problems accessing HPC? I was following a thread there and get the following message when I try to access the general forum:

 

[#1000] You are not allowed to visit this forum.

 

Does that mean I have been banned? :lol:

 

No message. No nothing.... and I think my IP address has been blocked. <_<

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Pixel8r,

 

You mentioned earlier about the shorts having to push down PMs before the options expiry date (early next week). What is their target price (as in what price must they defend at all costs)? Is it $1150 or something? If the price closes above that before the weekend, are they then toast?

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Pixel8r,

 

You mentioned earlier about the shorts having to push down PMs before the options expiry date (early next week). What is their target price (as in what price must they defend at all costs)? Is it $1150 or something? If the price closes above that before the weekend, are they then toast?

Monday is options expiry day. The cartel will try to take the price down as far as is possible, but the thing is that they are losing the ability to do so, I believe, now that china and others are buying at any opportunity the cartel present. At some point the cartel has to let the price run, how much physical gold can they keep letting asia have cheap?

 

I think, and this is just my opinion, that there is a commercial signal failure going on currently. Due to the fact that the paper shorts are now being called to deliver physical, which is now in very short supply, and they can't. I expect that today after the cartels plan A action this morning the price will rise this afternoon to higher than it started, but I could be wrong.

 

The last week or so each time they take the price down, it has been springing straight back up. As I was saying at some point they will need to be buying in a rising market to cover their shorts before Monday. That is why I think the price will go up this afternoon to more than it has fallen.

 

BTW I think silver has also joined the party now.

 

 

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Monday is options expiry day. The cartel will try to take the price down as far as is possible, but the thing is that they are losing the ability to do so, I believe, now that china and others are buying at any opportunity the cartel present. At some point the cartel has to let the price run, how much physical gold can they keep letting asia have cheap?

 

I think, and this is just my opinion, that there is a commercial signal failure going on currently. Due to the fact that the paper shorts are now being called to deliver physical, which is now in very short supply, and they can't. I expect that today after the cartels plan A action this morning the price will rise this afternoon to higher than it started, but I could be wrong.

 

The last week or so each time they take the price down, it has been springing straight back up. As I was saying at some point they will need to be buying in a rising market to cover their shorts before Monday. That is why I think the price will go up this afternoon to more than it has fallen.

 

BTW I think silver has also joined the party now.

 

Pixel8r, embarrassing question from the back of the class but, I'm sure I read somewhere that the big commercial shorts can leave their positions open almost ad-infinitum. Why would they be in a panic to cover them now?

 

Note to self - Try and pay attention.

 

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