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6. Soon the emails will start. They will want to get in on gold. Questions like, "what's happening, gold looks pretty good, right, Stewart?" Where were these people at 680? At 905? Others that sold out will ask, "But why is gold rising, I don't understand?"

 

gwil10105.jpg

 

7. This is the gold rapture. No prisoners will be taken. If you are a long term investor, the strategy now is to sit there in the corner and wait. Wait for much higher prices before selling anything. You need to decide who you are, where you sit on the investor-trader scale. Investors want to become traders on severe price weakness, and traders want to become investors into great strength like we have now. If you are a trader, selling now is as hard as buying at 905 and 680 was. It has to be done if you want to act professionally. You are selling into a price strength surge that feels like it will never end.

u17027274.jpg

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Gold heads to $1,100; hits fresh record

 

 

 

Gold futures surged to record highs above $1,090 an ounce Wednesday as the dollar sold off and buyers piled onto the precious metal's recent rise amid bets the Federal Reserve would maintain its ultraloose monetary policy.

 

After settling with modest gains, gold futures perked up in electronic trade after the Fed released its statement, repeating that economic conditions "are likely to warrant exceptional low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." It kept rates near zero percent. Gold broke atop key technical levels on Tuesday, gaining after the International Monetary Fund said it sold 200 metric tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India, part of a total of 403.3 metric tons of gold approved for sale in September. See Tuesday's Metals Stocks.

 

Tom Pawlicki, analyst at MF Global, said he expects "gold prices to make further upside progress over the near term."

 

"Support will come from IMF sales to India, planned dehedging by Barrick, hedge-fund purchases, and technical factors," Pawlicki wrote in a note to clients.

 

Earlier this week, Barrick Gold Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!abx/quotes/nls/abx (ABX 40.36, +0.08, +0.20%) /quotes/comstock/11t!abx (CA:ABX 42.94, +0.97, +2.31%) said it reduced its hedge book by 1 million ounces of gold in October.

 

In other metals action, December silver rose 1.3% to $17.405 an ounce during the floor session. January platinum gained 1% to $1,369.30 an ounce, as December palladium added 0.3% to $328.80 an ounce.

 

Bucking the trend, December copper slid 1.3% to $2.993 a pound.

 

In economic news Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management index showed business conditions improved in October across a narrower group of companies in the U.S. nonmanufacturing sectors. The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 50.6% from 50.9% in September, short of economist estimates. See full story.

 

Also, payrolls provider ADP said private-sector firms in the U.S. cut 203,000 jobs in October, the fewest jobs lost since July 2008. See Economic Report.

 

Barrick reduces gold hedges

Toronto-based Barrick plans to eliminate its remaining 1.9 million ounces in gold hedges by September 2010 because it wants to gain full leverage to the price of gold on all future production based on what's perceived to be an increasingly positive outlook for the metal.

 

Gold hedges are contracts where Barrick has sold ounces of gold forward and will receive a fixed price upon delivering into these contracts. With these hedges, Barrick doesn't stand to benefit from any increase in the price of gold.

 

Some hedge funds are also actively buying gold.

 

Gold may be "competing with T-bills as a place to park excess cash," Pawlicki said. "Gold sometimes has the appearance and reputation of being a 'risk-free' asset."

Gold has historically been seen as a safe-haven asset. Investors tend to buy the metal as a hedge against economic and financial turmoil.

 

"Central banks portray a long-term picture of things to come," said Chintan Karnani, an analyst at Insignia Consultants in New Delhi. "If central banks are buying gold, why should retail investors be left behind?" The rise in gold prices was also partly due to the "massive short covering and option-related buying," he said, characterizing the Tuesday rally in gold and other commodities as "too much money chasing too few goods."

 

At the same time, scrap-gold sales have ended, and Karnani expects to see greater jewelry demand at prices below the $1,050 level.

 

On a technical level, $1,125.40 is key resistance, he said. That level needs to be breached for gold to see further gains.

 

And if gold's rally continues into next week, Karnani predicts gold prices could reach $1,200 this month.

Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.

 

Polya Lesova is reporter for MarketWatch, based in Frankfurt. Laura Mandaro in San Francisco and Myra P. Saefong in Tokyo

 

December gold, the most active contract, rose to $1,092.1 an ounce, up from a floor settlement of $1,087.3 an ounce, as the U.S. dollar sold off further.

 

"The Fed reiterated the fact that they'll keep interest rates low to stimulate growth, which will ultimately lead to a weaker dollar and higher inflation," said David Beahm, vice president in economic research at Blanchard & Co. in New Orleans.

 

Combined with demand from central banks, the continued drop in the U.S. dollar "is a great recipe for gold," he said. New records

After trading followed an active session that drove prices to new records near $1,100 an ounce.

 

During the regular session, gold for November delivery rose to $1,094 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest level for a Comex front-month contract. The thinly traded contract ended up 0.2% at $1,086.70 an ounce.

 

Gold for December delivery, the most actively traded contract, also ended up 0.2% on the session, at $1,087.30 an ounce, after setting an intraday high of $1,096.50 an ounce.

 

Central banks in China, Russia and other major emerging markets have indicated "interest in building their holdings of gold as part of their diversification away from the U.S. dollar," said Nicholas Brooks, head of Research and Investment Strategy at ETF Securities.

 

"This appears to be a structural change that may support the gold price on a medium- to longer-term basis," he said.

 

 

News Hub: Previewing the FedThe News Hub panel discusses what big moves at the Federal Reserve may augur.

The dollar extended its decline after the Fed statement. Gold prices tend to rise when the dollar falls, because the currency's deterioration makes hard assets more valuable.

 

The dollar index /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 (DXY 75.70, -0.69, -0.90%) , which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, fell 0.6% to 75.82. See Currencies.

 

Investors' interest also returned in gold exchange-traded funds. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust /quotes/comstock/13*!gld/quotes/nls/gld (GLD 107.12, +0.02, +0.02%) , the biggest gold ETF, rose to 1,108.40 metric tons as of Tuesday, up nearly 5 metric tons from the prior day.

 

/quotes/comstock/13*!gld/quotes/nls/gld

GLD 107.12, +0.02, +0.02%

 

/quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0

DXY 75.70, -0.69, -0.90%

 

 

60%40%20%0%-20%N09FMAMJJASO"Inflows into physically backed gold ETFs indicate the move into gold has been gathering pace over the past year," said Brooks.

 

 

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2-4 years ago, I'd have said the smartest protection for US and UK citizens would be gold. Indeed, that is why I put 30% of my Sterling cash into gold. This doubled in nominal terms as GBP collapsed by 30% and gold rose steadily in other currencies. But I'm now down to only 6% in gold, because I am not sure it will anything like double again from here, and fear it may even have a serious pull back if/when deflation persists, the Tories get in, and some fiscal responsibility returns (once GBs scorched earth policy is no longer the key consideration)

 

 

i wouldn't bet your stash on it (not in the short term anyhow)

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Philip Hammond, a lawmaker who speaks on Treasury policy for the Conservatives, said the opposition party wants the Bank of England to keep interest rates low and will cut the deficit to allow this to happen.

 

It is essential that in the recovery we are able to continue to keep monetary policy relatively loose,” Hammond said in an interview at Bloomberg’s office in London. “We will only be able to do that if we have got the deficit under control.”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a6OVT.JHhYxM

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i wouldn't bet your stash on it (not in the short term anyhow)

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a6OVT.JHhYxM

I would'nt bet my stash on any political puppet show.People need to start looking behind that charade if they want to really understand whats going on.

 

A small example:-

 

How Gordon Brown paid West Wing Writers $40,000 for 'tailoring' speechCompany headed by former speechwriters to Clinton, vice-president Joe Biden and other leading Democrats helped pitch speeches to US audience

 

Daniel Nasaw The Guardian, Wednesday 4 November 2009 Article history

Gordon Brown addresses a Joint Meeting of Congress. Photograph: Matthew Cavanaugh/EPA

 

Gordon Brown's speech to the US Congress in March earned no fewer than 19 standing ovations, a congratulatory call from President Obama and plaudits for its command of global economics and rousing call to action.

 

What American politicians did not know at the time was that at least some of it was the work of a Washington-based speechwriting company called West Wing Writers – which charged the prime minister $7,000 (£4,300) for its services.

 

Today it emerged that Brown has paid more than $40,000 to the company to help him tailor speeches to US audiences while chancellor of the exchequer and prime minister. Staffed by former aides to Bill Clinton, West Wing Writers will doubtless have sounded reassuring to New Labour aficionados of Aaron Sorkin's rendering of life at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

 

 

Daniel Nasaw talks about the team of Americans hired by Brown Link to this audio The cash may not have paid for the real-life Toby Ziegler or Sam Seaborn, but it may have helped Brown counter his hard-earned reputation in the UK for being dour and stern. Details of the payments have emerged from documents West Wing Writers filed with the US justice department, required because the company was working on behalf of an agent of a foreign government – Brown.

 

The most recent payment disclosed was $7,085, which, it states, was paid by the prime minister on 4 March 2009 "for editing communication material".

 

According to a filing, West Wing Writers provided suggestions for edits to the speech he made on Capitol Hill.

 

The documents do not reveal which sections the writers tweaked, but in several instances the remarks betray subtle sensitivity to United States political sentiment.

 

For instance, they include references both to presidents John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, and to "the bravery and valour of the Americans who gave that last full measure of devotion" – to many Americans an instantly recognisable reference to Abraham Lincoln's 1863 Gettysburg Address.

 

In March 2008 West Wing Writers received $9,810.50 from Brown for editing one speech. Three weeks later Brown gave an address at the John F Kennedy memorial library in Boston urging the US and Europe to join forces against global terrorism.

 

In addition to those speeches, when Brown was chancellor West Wing Writers edited speeches to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the United Nations, the Council on Foreign Relations, a comment piece published in the Washington Post, and other works, documents show.

 

Though his name is against many of the payments, it is thought the bills were paid by the offices of the chancellor and the prime minister, rather than by Brown himself.

 

West Wing Writers prides itself on guaranteeing the confidentiality of its clients, and declined to comment on the work it had carried out for Brown – which is thought to be the first time in many years that a senior British politician has engaged US speechwriters.

 

"If we put their names here, you would know them all," the company writes on its website. "But if West Wing Writers' clients have one thing in common, its that they expect confidentiality."

 

In addition to Brown, West Wing Writers also help with speeches and communications material for the Jordanian court, including Queen Rania, and assist the Norwegian foreign ministry.

 

Downing street did not return a call asking for a comment.

 

West Wing Writers is headed by former speechwriters to Clinton, vice-president Joe Biden and other leading Democratic party figures.

 

The team of writers include Vinca LaFleur, who helped Clinton pen a speech given in Northern Ireland in 1995; Jeff Nussbaum, who wrote speeches for Biden during last year's presidential campaign; Paul Orzulak, a Clinton White House aide; and Jeff Shesol, also a former speechwriter to Clinton.

 

The payments came during a turbulent period for his Downing street public relations team, which has suffered several overhauls since he became prime minister two years ago

 

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I would'nt bet my stash on any political puppet show.People need to start looking behind that charade if they want to really understand whats going on.

 

A small example:-

 

How Gordon Brown paid West Wing Writers $40,000 for 'tailoring' speechCompany headed by former speechwriters to Clinton, vice-president Joe Biden and other leading Democrats helped pitch speeches to US audience

.../..

 

ffs - this is where my tax money is spent?!

 

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ffs - this is where my tax money is spent?!

Not quite your TAX will go to pay back the loans on the money lent to uk plc by the banksters.It doesnt pay for hospitals roads or anything you are lead to believe.

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India, American Barrick, Anglogold Ashanti: Gold Is Going Much, Much Higher

 

As the saying goes, "follow the money." Three major players in the global gold market have engaged in highly scrutinized and very visible bullion transactions, sending the loud and clear message to the market that the price of gold is going to go significantly higher in price. A more subtle message, and more significant, is the signal to the world that the supply of gold available to purchase in large quantities is quickly dwindling.

 

India is the world's largest consumer of gold (China will soon surpass), American Barrick (ABX) is the largest gold mining company in the world, Anglogold Ashanti (AU) is the world's 3rd largest gold mining company. They are all buying as much gold as they can - India because that's what India does; ABX and AU because, otherwise, those two companies will go bankrupt from their massive gold hedges.

 

As most of you know by now, India's Central Bank announced yesterday that it bought 200 of the 403 tons of gold that the IMF is selling. They paid $1045/ounce. An IMF official said the transaction would be paid for by India in hard currency, not IMF Special Drawing Rights, which means India is most likely using U.S. dollar reserves to pay for the purchase. This is a massive move out of dollars for India ($6.7 billion U.S. dollars). India would not be engaging in this high profile transaction if it thought that it could easily purchase an eqivalent amount at an equivalent price quietly and privately. India is, to be sure, quite cognizant of the fact that this purchase sends a bullish signal to the market. One can only conclude that this move signals to the world that the physical supply of gold in large quantities is getting tight, a view that has been presented on this blog and by other informed sources.

 

American Barrick announced yesterday that it bought back 1 million ounces of gold in October, that it might complete its hedge buyback program before the 12 month window it set in September and that global mine production will continue to decline. After the 1 million ounces purchased in October, ABX estimates that the value of the remaining hedge that needs to be closed-out is $2.1 billion. The calculation assumes $1050/ounce gold. Ever since ABX announced its plan to close out its hedge book, the Company has aggressively worked on buying back gold to cover its hedges as the price of gold moves higher. Since September, ABX has issued $4 billion in stock and $1.25 billion in debt for this purpose. It is patently clear to anyone analyzing ABX's activity that managment is becoming increasingly concerned with the manageability of their gold short and the risk of facing the liability of much higher prices in the near future.

 

Anglogold Ashanti announced yesterday (11/2) that it may accelerate the closing of its hedgebook. The Company announced that the hedge was down to 4.3 million ounces. The original timetable for closing the hedge was 2014, a date the Company set just recently in July. Since that time, the price of gold has gone up around $160/oz. This means that AU has dropped another $688 million (roughly) on its gold hedge. To put the size AU's hedge in perspective, 4.3 million ounces translates into about 122 tons. More than half the amount India purchased from the IMF. Unless the IMF agrees to sell AU some of the remaining 203 tons that it is selling, AU has a big problem. It should be clear to everyone that AU faces a huge challenge to buy back its gold hedge without significantly driving up the price of gold and incurring huge financial damage.

 

As signalled by India, ABX, AU and some big funds in the U.S., the long-anticipated scramble by Central Banks and large investors to accumulate gold is now underway. When I first began researching the gold market back in late 2001, I examined some ideas offered by Jim Dines in his subscription newsletter (The Dines Letter). One of the themes was that Central Banks globally would shift from being net sellers of gold to being net buyers and that the race to buy gold by these enitities would get quite competitive, as the available supply persistently declined and the price inexorably rose. Please keep in mind that these same Central Banks had been key suppliers to the market over the past 10+ years. To back up this thesis with an example, the European Central Bank System had been selling 500 tons per year since 1999, up until last year. This year, as the price of gold has continued its ascent, the ECB selling has slowed to a trickle and a few of the member banks (Germany, for one) have announced that they are done selling gold. Some ECB banks have actually purchased gold recently.

 

I suggested last week that it wouldn't be a good idea to wait much past Halloween if you were thinking about buying gold. The actions announced by China, Barrick and Anglogold have added considerable urgency to that suggestion. Gold is going to go MUCH higher in price. Period.

 

 

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Dollar bulls were obviously disappointed by the Fed's No Action decision,

and the Dollar fell all the way back to support near 75.50, where it closed a gap.

 

If it can hold that level through the week and into the meeting this weekend,

then the something useful could come out of the meeting.

If it slides into the meeting, that would put some more pressure on the US at the meeting

 

Interesting to see stocks give up their gains, despite the weak dollar - good for my puts.

 

I actually added some more Dec.109 puts in early trading, replacing the Nov.111 puts I had sold,

at a better price

 

==

 

Fun and Games? Hope you are short. We may be about to begin 3 of 3 !

 

(per TonyC):

Today's rally carried the SPX right into the OEW 1061 pivot. This rally has been choppy from monday's SPX 1029 low, which is exactly what was expected. The 32 point rally is fairly close to a 50% retracement of the 72 point decline from SPX 1101 to 1029. The market did get overbought on the hourly and short term charts, which is what should be expected during a Minor wave 2. Also, we might consider this an ABC rally as well. The short term charts indicate that the market has turned over and Minor wave 2 may be complete. FOMC days are often retraced the following day. So tomorrow's action should confirm if Minor wave 2 is still ongoing, or Minor wave 3 is underway. Best to your trading!

 

/more: http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/

 

I must get into the EWI site (Free Week !, see above):

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=affem...mp;cn=goldstock

 

... and see Hochberg sees 3of3 is underway.

(If the SPX is headed into a crash, I would be astounded to see Gold hold up.)

 

I will be at a conference all day, so will not be able to check until later.

Maybe some can have a look, and post a comment here

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Dollar bulls were obviously disappointed by the Fed's No Action decision,

and the Dollar fell all the way back to support near 75.50, where it closed a gap.

 

If it can hold that level through the week and into the meeting this weekend,

then the something useful could come out of the meeting.

If it slides into the meeting, that would put some more pressure on the US at the meeting

 

Interesting to see stocks give up their gains, despite the weak dollar - good for my puts.

 

I actually added some more Dec.109 puts in early trading, replacing the Nov.111 puts I had sold,

at a better price

 

==

 

Fun and Games? Hope you are short. We may be about to begin 3 of 3 !

 

(per TonyC):

Today's rally carried the SPX right into the OEW 1061 pivot. This rally has been choppy from monday's SPX 1029 low, which is exactly what was expected. The 32 point rally is fairly close to a 50% retracement of the 72 point decline from SPX 1101 to 1029. The market did get overbought on the hourly and short term charts, which is what should be expected during a Minor wave 2. Also, we might consider this an ABC rally as well. The short term charts indicate that the market has turned over and Minor wave 2 may be complete. FOMC days are often retraced the following day. So tomorrow's action should confirm if Minor wave 2 is still ongoing, or Minor wave 3 is underway. Best to your trading!

 

/more: http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/

 

I must get into the EWI site (Free Week !, see above):

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=affem...mp;cn=goldstock

 

... and see Hochberg sees 3of3 is underway.

(If the SPX is headed into a crash, I would be astounded to see Gold hold up.)

 

I will be at a conference all day, so will not be able to check until later.

Maybe some can have a look, and post a comment here

And the relevance to gold is?

 

 

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ausUSgold.gif

 

 

Thought these charts deserved a little commentary.

 

Gold is performing well as a currency here. Compare it to the Aussie dollar. Anyone who had bought the Aussie in the past year would have had equal gains. With this in mind gold is hardly going parabolic. The Aussie dollar has gone from 0.65 to 0.90 in a few months largely on the back of the new carry trade. Easy come, easy go as they say, and when this carry trade unwinds, gold also is likely to get hit a little.

 

 

 

When you look at gold priced in Aussie dollars, it is hard to get too excited at the recent price in US dollars. It is still a dollar [carry trade] story for now.

 

 

 

ausgold.gif

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It seems as if Pixel8r has nailed it:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

Gold_USD_Pixel8r.png

It makes a nice pattern, but there is a fundamental fault line running through the time axis on that chart. In the earlier part you had asset inflation in prices with which gold kept pace. In the later half you have asset deflation and financial uncertainty, and hence reflected in the increased volatility in gold.

 

Just a different interpretation... all things are obviously not equal here and this pattern looks to be clearly disrupted. I think continued volatility is more likely with the top line being broken again a few times, while then moving to the upside [unparabolically] of course.

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Gold Starship: Family Reunion On Pluto?

 

Latest missive from Stewart Thomson

 

I love this guy.

 

1. Ladies and gentlemen, we have liftoff. The gold bullion rocket has taken off. I warned those standing under the gold rocket trying to pick the next $50 move in gold, they would be vaporized. A huge contest in the gold community emerged to see who could totally ignore the Michaelangelic head and shoulders pattern, while making the greatest prediction on how low gold would go. 1000, 980, 950 were all popular predictions of the micro men. Many went short, with a genius play to make money on the way to their imaginary targets.

 

2. Do you really think people so focused on gold's decline really owned gold themselves? No. They blew out their core positions to play 'gold hamburger flipper.' The burger landed on the floor and the banksters just stomped on it. The flippers are dead.

 

etc continued here on 321gold.

The bug's flying high... and can't see the trees for the woods.

 

Nnnnnyyyyooowwww.... splat :lol:

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It makes a nice pattern, but there is a fundamental fault line running through the time axis on that chart. In the earlier part you had asset inflation in prices with which gold kept pace. In the later half you have asset deflation and financial uncertainty, and hence reflected in the increased volatility in gold.

 

Just a different interpretation... all things are obviously not equal here and this pattern looks to be clearly disrupted. I think continued volatility is more likely with the top line being broken again a few times, while then moving to the upside [unparabolically] of course.

You also have been thinking that Yen & Dollars would do better than gold or silver, but they haven't.

 

So you think the top line is going to be broken, I can't wait to see you eat your words over the next few months. But I am sure you will still have a way to make yourself superior even then.

 

 

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You also have been thinking that Yen & Dollars would do better than gold or silver, but they haven't.

 

So you think the top line is going to be broken, I can't wait to see you eat your words over the next few months. But I am sure you will still have a way to make yourself superior even then.

I was thinking "alternative" rather than superior. ;)

 

Starting to buy dollars later this month.

 

[For the record - as some may be concerned about a "corrupting" influence on the wider readership - I have 40% in gold]

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I was thinking "alternative" rather than superior. ;)

 

Starting to buy dollars later this month.

What you still haven't actually bought any? You have been talking about there benefit of owning dollars for over a quarter now.

 

 

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What you still haven't actually bought any? You have been talking about there benefit of owning dollars for over a quarter now.

I bought Yen, which is an even better risk averse currency than US dollars....to hedge against lower metal prices in. Also, I suspected dollars would get cheaper, the currency I am in, set aside for purchasing dollars, is currently strengthening against dollars. I hope to buy when the dollar is around 72.

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Gold is another currency and is best seen as such.

 

We could easily see the gold price slide in USD but rise in sterling , for example.

 

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Gold is another currency and is best seen as such.

 

We could easily see the gold price slide in USD but rise in sterling , for example.

Completely agree. Gold is being "re-monetized".

 

Investors/ savers need to stop thinking of it as primarily a commodity, or an inflation hedge, or a mop for excess liquidity, in order to get with the program. :)

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Completely agree. Gold is being "re-monetized".

 

Investors/ savers need to stop thinking of it as primarily a commodity, or an inflation hedge, or a mop for excess liquidity, in order to get with the program. :)

 

Does anyone ever read this blog?

 

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/

 

Hi thesis seems to be that, far from being re-monetized, it is in the process of complete demonetization from the dollar.

 

Quite complicated for my tiny mind but an interesting read never the less.

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Does anyone ever read this blog?

 

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/

 

Hi thesis seems to be that, far from being re-monetized, it is in the process of complete demonetization from the dollar.

 

Quite complicated for my tiny mind but an interesting read never the less.

Excerpt

 

Gold is right now in the process of complete demonetization. It is being set free from the dollar which has held it captive in a monetized (controlled parity) state for a long, long time. Gold is transforming into a completely demonetized wealth asset. And along with this move will come a whole new level of value, completely detached from any linear analysis of gold's dollar-based price history over the past century or two, or three.

 

Perhaps he could also say it is being "de-dollarized"... coming out from under the shadow of the dollar, which is really saying that the dollar is starting to lose its status as the reserve/ central world currency.

 

By gold being "monetized", I mean that it is increasingly considered, in the minds of investors and nations, as primarily a currency. It is also starting to behave as such. Personally, I think we will eventually see this formally recognized in the re-institution of a gold exchange standard [perhaps involving IMF SDRs]. There is a fair chance a new gold standard will be required in the near future in order to both stabilize currencies and restore balanced international trade.

 

I see gold, the primary/ primordial monetary value, as the solution to the "problem of valuation" which applies to both assets and currencies today. This problem looks likely to lead to very volatile markets as investors become increasingly uncertain on how to value both assets and currencies. We have already started to see wild capital flows between currencies.

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etc continued here on 321gold.

 

The bug's flying high... and can't see the trees for the woods.

 

Nnnnnyyyyooowwww.... splat :lol:

Aw come on RH I think this guy is rather good. The first stuff I read by him turned me off but now I understand his approach better. He is very clear to people that they need to decide if they are a trader or an investor.

 

If you are a long term investor, the strategy now is to sit there in the corner and wait. Wait for much higher prices before selling anything. You need to decide who you are, where you sit on the investor-trader scale. Investors want to become traders on severe price weakness, and traders want to become investors into great strength like we have now. If you are a trader, selling now is as hard as buying at 905 and 680 was. It has to be done if you want to act professionally.

 

And in any case if he is wrong at least you will have had a good old laugh reading his material. This guy is comedy genius.

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Aw come on RH I think this guy is rather good. The first stuff I read by him turned me off but now I understand his approach better. He is very clear to people that they need to decide if they are a trader or an investor.

And we know that this is a very important point!

 

And in any case if he is wrong at least you will have had a good old laugh reading his material. This guy is comedy genius.

Yes. I liked his point 3:

 

3. As I write this at 4am, gold has surged to almost 1100, and the gold top callers are nothing but a pile of charcoal, buried with their systems, micro charts, and golden tiddly wink forecasting kits. They've been calling the top from 905! That's almost $200 of total failure.

If gold plunges to 900 next week, that will be a truly funny sentence. :lol:

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Aw come on RH I think this guy is rather good. The first stuff I read by him turned me off but now I understand his approach better. He is very clear to people that they need to decide if they are a trader or an investor.

 

And in any case if he is wrong at least you will have had a good old laugh reading his material. This guy is comedy genius.

To be honest, I am not quite sure what to think of this one:

 

"7. This is the gold rapture."

 

I'll say it again, he sure is flying high! :lol:

 

Here's the problem as I see it. If you think the price can only explode to the upside imminently, then this will have the effect of you immediately valuing your money a lot less. You will then want to spend/ invest all of it at once in a rush to gold. This is hardly observing the basic priciples of investment, where one is rational, unemotional and unrushed in their decisions [strategic and warlike... thinking Art of War here]. Need I add hedged? :)

 

Newbie not so die-hard gold-bugs will take one massive psychological hit, if the price declines on another credit crunch, or on a snap-back in the carry trade, and might be so traumatized, [having gone "all in"] as to sell at the very wrong moment. I'd add that this is why gold may go on another dip due to weak hands/minds, in the mass market, holding it [misguidedly imo] as an inflation hedge.

 

You might not agree that this will happen, but you would have to agree that it is a very real risk.

 

 

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To be honest, I am not quite sure what to think of this one:

 

"7. This is the gold rapture."

 

I'll say it again, he sure is flying high! :lol:

 

Here's the problem as I see it. If you think the price can only explode to the upside, then you will value money less, and spend all of it at once in a rush to gold. This is hardly observing the basic priciples of investment, where one is rational, unemotional and unrushed in their decisions [strategic and warlike... thinking Art of War here]. Need I add hedged? :)

 

Newbie not so die-hard gold-bugs will take one massive psychological hit, if the price declines on another credit crunch, or a snap back in the carry trade, and might be so traumatized as to sell at the very wrong moment. I'd add that this is why gold may go on another dip due to weak hands/minds, in the mass market, holding it [misguidedly imo] as an inflation hedge.

That is all fine but you seem to ignore that we have just been through a 30% correction in 2008, surely that was the time to use you "spare powder"?

 

 

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That is all fine but you seem to ignore that we have just been through a 30% correction in 2008, surely that was the time to use you "spare powder"?

Ideally, you would want to have dry powder in case of the large correction.... ignore everything else. If we get it then that is the time to go "all in" and load up.

 

On a correction. I will load up on silver and then look to swap silver to both gold and cash at the top. Gold is what I save in/ take profits in by accumulating, and some cash for further hedging.

 

If someone asked me whether they should be buying or selling here, I'd say both. Buying if you have no gold. Selling a little if you are "all in" 100%. Shock.. horror. :)

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