GOLD

[Mr Pipples]

"The truth is out there" ...but its intertwined with internet content comprising 'basics', 'fact', 'analysis', and 'conclusion'

 

My training/career is all about distinguishing these four;

- basics: essential to learn and understand

- fact: critical to keep up to date with

- analysis: do your own analysis (think for yourself!), and use the analyses of others only as a source of possibilities

- conclusion: ignore them all, as you will have reached your own conclusions by your own analysis

 

This way, you'll not follow any Pied Pipers into oblivion, and you'll have a fighting chance of staying that critical one small step ahead of the herd

 

Good stuff / good plan.

[TrueNorth]

Gold's up 11 bucks this morning. Que pasa?

[Pixel8r]

Gold's up 11 bucks this morning. Que pasa?

Nothing means much until NY opens. This is a big week I think, "to QE or not to QE, that is the question?".

[drbubb]

Gold's up 11 bucks this morning. Que pasa?

 

Look carefully...

Back at October 2008.

There was a bizarre show of strength in Gold then too.

As stocks slid, Gold moved higher at first. A sort of "last gasp" flight to gold as a "safe haven."

Then it collapsed.

 

The next few days (and weeks?) are going to be interesting, especially if stocks slide, and gold goes on rising today.

 

 

Here's a close-up of that former period: Sept-Nov.2008 ... update

Compare to: Sept-Nov.2009 ... update

 

There were 2-4 consecutive days of "bizarre" gold moves in 2008, and we have seen 1 day or far (Friday) in 2009.

Maybe bizarre moves will last into mid-week.

 

Gold versus UK & US stocks : 10day Updated chart

[Pixel8r]

I think that China would be buying on any drop back, they have been saying that they will. Also they have been encouraging their people to save in gold and silver, they would lose face if they allowed the price to drop.

 

RMC made a interesting observation earlier in this thread. That the chinese line in the sand for buying was 7,000 Yuan. Does seem to be a very round number to me. How much longer can the cartel keep providing the chinese with cheap gold?

 

[FWIW]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14692.html

 

[Pixel8r]

Did gold really go up 16.30?

 

Yes. The weakened US Dollar was responsible for 4.90 of that increase.

 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

 

 

[TrueNorth]

Cheers Pixel8r.

 

edited to add: Gold's also up about £10 from Friday's close.

 

Pound weakness as well?

[wee Jinky]

I think that China would be buying on any drop back, they have been saying that they will. Also they have been encouraging their people to save in gold and silver, they would lose face if they allowed the price to drop.

 

RMC made a interesting observation earlier in this thread. That the chinese line in the sand for buying was 7,000 Yuan. Does seem to be a very round number to me. How much longer can the cartel keep providing the chinese with cheap gold?

 

The single biggest factor in why it wont crash imo

 

the Chinese are in this game big time and they are in it to win it

 

As we are always reminded there is only so much available and with over 1 billion

 

now in the queue ............

 

 

 

[InSilverWeTrust]

Gold is done here!!

[routemaster]

The single biggest factor in why it wont crash imo

 

the Chinese are in this game big time and they are in it to win it

 

As we are always reminded there is only so much available and with over 1 billion

 

now in the queue ............

 

I agree. Just look how gold has been defended and trended upwards over the last year in the Chinese Yuan.

 

 

8,000 yuan gold he we come. In old money that's $1172.

[TrueNorth]

So, 7000 is the new 6000?

[routemaster]

I think that China would be buying on any drop back, they have been saying that they will. Also they have been encouraging their people to save in gold and silver, they would lose face if they allowed the price to drop.

 

RMC made a interesting observation earlier in this thread. That the chinese line in the sand for buying was 7,000 Yuan. Does seem to be a very round number to me. How much longer can the cartel keep providing the chinese with cheap gold?

 

+1

 

PS - Thank you for posting the graph in its full glory.

[lyb]

gold fundamentals in doubt

 

There is an interesting interview with Jon Nadler at the site above. He seems to suggest the gold fundamentals are not as strong.

 

It is interesting that gold has not visited the 200 DMA this summer. I believe this is the first time and I have been following this market for 5 years. What is the reason? I believe that Jon Nadler is right that there has been a lot of speculation by hedge funds. Certainly the investment component is now a lot larger than it used to be. I remember when gold was in the 600's, supported by the jewelry market alone, it was stated then that rising investment was necessary for an increase above 700. Well this is now history.

 

I do not believe there will be a strong correction to the 200DMA this year because

1)We have just entered the strongest seasonal period for gold

2) Barrick still wants to dehedge about 3billion $ with the money they borrowed, to close all hedging.

3) Gold is still cheap priced in Euros (currently 715). Any pullback will trigger strong jewelry demand in Europe.

I bought some physical myself at 680 in August which is well below the peak of 770 last spring.

 

The large short commercial position is used as an argument of an impeding fall, however, a similar

occurence in October 2005 preceded one of the strongest rallies so far.

 

My guess is that now is a good entry point, the next will be in August 2010.

[fitkid]

"The truth is out there" ...but its intertwined with internet content comprising 'basics', 'fact', 'analysis', and 'conclusion'

 

My training/career is all about distinguishing these four;

- basics: essential to learn and understand

- fact: critical to keep up to date with

- analysis: do your own analysis (think for yourself!), and use the analyses of others only as a source of possibilities

- conclusion: ignore them all, as you will have reached your own conclusions by your own analysis

 

This way, you'll not follow any Pied Pipers into oblivion, and you'll have a fighting chance of staying that critical one small step ahead of the herd

 

Excellent post!!

[Pixel8r]

gold fundamentals in doubt

 

There is an interesting interview with Jon Nadler at the site above. He seems to suggest the gold fundamentals are not as strong.

 

It is interesting that gold has not visited the 200 DMA this summer. I believe this is the first time and I have been following this market for 5 years. What is the reason? I believe that Jon Nadler is right that there has been a lot of speculation by hedge funds. Certainly the investment component is now a lot larger than it used to be. I remember when gold was in the 600's, supported by the jewelry market alone, it was stated then that rising investment was necessary for an increase above 700. Well this is now history.

 

I do not believe there will be a strong correction to the 200DMA this year because

1)We have just entered the strongest seasonal period for gold

2) Barrick still wants to dehedge about 3billion $ with the money they borrowed, to close all hedging.

3) Gold is still cheap priced in Euros (currently 715). Any pullback will trigger strong jewelry demand in Europe.

I bought some physical myself at 680 in August which is well below the peak of 770 last spring.

 

The large short commercial position is used as an argument of an impeding fall, however, a similar

occurence in October 2005 preceded one of the strongest rallies so far.

 

My guess is that now is a good entry point, the next will be in August 2010.

Jon Nadler is paid to run gold down, he is well known for it. Just look at this analysts calls over the years and you will realise that he worth ignoring.

 

Pay no attention to him, no one else does.

 

Check this link to see what a shill he is;

 

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&cli...mp;oq=&aqi=

 

 

[Pixel8r]

Gold is done here!!

Careful there will be a InSilverWeTrust Vs Bubb thread started soon if you carry on...

 

 

[InSilverWeTrust]

Careful there will be a InSilverWeTrust Vs Bubb thread started soon if you carry on...

 

 

I had myself worried for a minute there, the price started dropping like a ...dollar, right on my call.

 

 

[Pixel8r]

Barrick Gold starting to panic, physical shortage is becoming well known....

 

Barrick may close hedgebook ahead of plan: CFO

 

EDINBURGH -- Barrick Gold, the world's biggest miner of the precious metal, said it may complete the planned closure of its hedgebook announced last month before the end of the 12-month window it had set.

 

Barrick Chief Financial Officer Jamie Sokalsky also told Reuters the company had bought back 1 million ounces of hedged gold in October.

 

"We are going to be opportunistic, and we're going to be responsive to the market, but we will have it done by 12 months at the latest," Mr. Sokalsky said on the sidelines of the London Bullion Market Association's annual conference.

 

"We could very well do it before then," he said, adding: "The market was right for us in October to buy the million ounces and we'll see what transpires going forward."

 

Hedging allows producers to lock in prices for future output, but the strategy can backfire if prices rise significantly.

 

"The hedgebook had been a disadvantage to our share price, because shareholders didn't think we had (exposure to) upside to the gold price," Mr. Sokalasky said.

 

"By taking away the cap, we should be able to more fully benefit, as we believe the gold prices will rise significantly."

 

A combination of global economic, political and financial uncertainty and strong fundamentals -- good investment demand combined with constrained mine supply -- mean gold could set new highs in the near future, he said.

 

"It is hard to put a number on it, but if you look at where gold rose to back in the early 1980s on an inflation-adjusted basis, it was over US$2,000 an ounce," he said.

 

"I am not necessarily predicting that, but I think we can certainly go up by a few hundred dollars, maybe higher," he said.

 

Gold's record high is US$1,070.40 an ounce, set in October.

 

Mr. Sokalsky also said Barrick believes gold mine supply will continue to fall, which would support the gold price.

 

"There has been a dearth of big gold discoveries, exploration spending had dried up when the gold price was under US$300 more than a decade ago, and as a result, there haven't been a lot of exploration finds," he said.

[G0ldfinger]

Update:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since2004/UK_H...es_in_Gold.html

[tl8177]

Some light relief: I found this very funny

 

 

[romans holiday]

Update:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since2004/UK_H...es_in_Gold.html

Great chart gf, but I thought the idea was to put the longer term aspects of gold on the "G0ldfinger's GOLD Thread: Longer Term Aspects, Facts, charts, and discussions on gold and related topics" thread, and leave this thread for "Daily news, comment and analysis on the gold market".

[G0ldfinger]

Great chart gf, but I thought the idea was to put the longer term aspects of gold on the "G0ldfinger's GOLD Thread: Longer Term Aspects, Facts, charts, and discussions on gold and related topics" thread, and leave this thread for "Daily news, comment and analysis on the gold market".

It's daily news because it just got updated.

[romans holiday]

It's daily news because it just got updated.

[warpig]

I never thought they would sell, they must be desperate.... Seems to be extremely bullish for gold, gold up $20/£15 today and currently @ $1,065.95/£650.19, it looks like we might be breaking new barriers tonight in USD! I guess the IMF are hoping to buy it back after the correction...

 

IMF Sells Gold to Central Bank of India, Netting $6.7 Billion

 

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said it is selling 200 metric tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India for about $6.7 billion, its first sale of the precious metal in nine years. The sale accounts for almost half the 403.3 tons that the Washington-based lender in September agreed to sell as part of a plan to shore up its finances and lend at reduced rates to low- income countries.

 

The lender has said it is ready to sell directly to central banks and later make transactions on the open market if necessary. The IMF official declined to say whether other central banks have expressed interest in purchases.

 

The 403.3 tons the IMF board agreed to sell amount to one- eight of its stockpile. Gold prices reached a record of $1,072 an ounce on Oct. 14 and have gained 45 percent from a year ago.