GOLD

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

None taken. Silver is in decline now. I sold a little for Yen a while back and though silver spiked up afterwards, it is now back to the level at which I sold in Yen [Yen has strengthened/ silver weakened].

 

I still have a large position in silver, the reason I sold a little was I wanted to raise some cash in case of a big slide in silver. That slide could be developing now... then again it could not... which is why I am hedging.

 

With silver, I do not see it as just a clear cut decision to sell or hold. I have something like 30%in silver and though I suspect silver might decline here would not sell it [i might be wrong]. Rather, I would be buying at lower prices with cash positions... if I am right.

 

This is hedging not trading.

 

[though I had one ear on Hoye, I have always suspected we would see one last wave up in the market/silver before a downturn... we might still see that ..who knows].

 

thanks for the clarification, as you say 'who knows'

 

[drbubb]

Other related links:

====

GF's Long Term Gold ideas :: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7921

GF's Gold Ratio charts ...... :: xx (to be created)

DrB's GDX Warning thread :: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6677

Gold Watch, COT reports.. :: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7266

 

(to be added to the first post?)

++

Maybe one or two key charts for the month, like this:

[d2thdr]

Many are expecting a dollar rally and with it a gold correction. We could easily see gold go back through 1000 but I doubt even a spike in the dollar will see gold go through 900 [QE effectively put a floor in at 900 imo]. Gold will quickly recover as a safe haven currency and whereas the dollar may benefit initially by a knee-jerk [perhaps forced short covering] reaction in the market, gold will continue its incremental and solid upward move to new highs.

 

Many here have pounds. I imagine they would weaken faster than gold, so in order to take advantage of a possible dip, you would want to first buy dollars or Yen with Sterling. I wouldn't sell gold here, never do.

 

 

Are you looking at sub 1000$ price or sub 600£ per oz of gold any time soon?

[romans holiday]

Are you looking at sub 1000$ price or sub 600£ per oz of gold any time soon?

 

 

It all depends on whether the dollar is rallying here or not. It looks like it is but this could be a head fake. Even if the dollar turns back down again, I expect to see it rally sometime within the next few months.

 

For the record, I do not delay gold purchases for lower prices, only silver ones. I am quite content with 40% in gold at the moment.

[Pixel8r]

Are you looking at sub 1000$ price or sub 600£ per oz of gold any time soon?

Don't expect a straight answer from RH, he will just tell you he is hedged incase it happens. He does have a large core holding already.

 

The Chinese have put a floor under the gold price currently, they will not allow the price to go down too far.

 

The graph below is quite self-expanitory as to what I think is going on. We could see a pull back to just below $1000, but then again we could just carry on straight up from here. I am expecting the price of gold in dollars to be around $1350 by April which is 30% higher than where we are.

 

If you are looking to buy, it depends on the amount of holding you have already. The best policy for buying gold is to dollar cost average, buy some each month. There are no guarantees in anything, but holding gold rather than fiat makes you feel a lot more protected. I like to think of holding gold as insurance against government.

 

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

Some TA by Pixel8r that deserves a DOUBLE POST.

 

[Fortune]

Some TA by Pixel8r that deserves a DOUBLE POST.

How do you get that parabola curve? Illustrator or MS Paint?

[FWIW]

How do you get that parabola curve? Illustrator or MS Paint?

 

Use exponential function in your spreadsheet package.

 

 

[Pixel8r]

How do you get that parabola curve? Illustrator or MS Paint?

I have Adobe Creative Suite CS4, so Illustrator CS4

 

 

[electroweak]

Use exponential function in your spreadsheet package.

FWIW , those curves are exponentials on a log plot! - it's an exponential of an exponential... buckle up!

[FWIW]

FWIW , those curves are exponentials on a log plot! - it's an exponential of an exponential... buckle up!

 

Yes, you are right! Exponential growth is the minimimum level!!! We need to catch up with the 'fiat' printers, they have been running at full speed for far too long!

[routemaster]

The Chinese have put a floor under the gold price currently, they will not allow the price to go down too far.

 

The floor is at 7,000 Chinese Yuan, where it bounced off on the 28th. US Dollar and Euro denominated gold are now playing second and third fiddles.

[Pixel8r]

The floor is at 7,000 Chinese Yuan, where it bounced off on the 28th. US Dollar and Euro denominated gold are now playing second and third fiddles.

Interesting observation, thanks.

 

 

[drbubb]

From the GDX Warning thread

 

Two New charts:

THE GDX WARNING ... update

 

I could see Gold prices returning to "the Green Line"

...where there should be some important support

 

[drbubb]

Some TA by Pixel8r that deserves a DOUBLE POST.

 

This could break very, very soon.

 

My GDX Warning chart suggests an important break may be coming this week

[warpig]

Gold Market Reaching the Breaking point

A good round up of where gold is today in the current crisis, with lots of sub-articles. Apologies if it's been posted elsewhere.

 

EDIT: Found it here courtesy of Mr P. Worthy of a double post nevertheless.

[drbubb]

Gold Market Reaching the Breaking point

A good round up of where gold is today in the current crisis, with lots of sub-articles. Apologies if it's been posted elsewhere.

 

EDIT: Found it here courtesy of Mr P. Worthy of a double post nevertheless.

 

That is a poorly written article, full of logical flaws.

(I would be embarrassed if my name was on it - Want examples?)

 

I think the Gold Bulls are about to get CREAMED.

They have stopped using their brains (if this poor article is any indication) and are operating on pure emotion.

 

Bring on the Truth detector !

[romans holiday]

That is a poorly written article, full of logical flaws.

(I would be embarrassed if my name was on it - Want examples?)

 

I think the Gold Bulls are about to get CREAMED.

They have stopped using their brains (if this poor article is any indication) and are operating on pure emotion.

 

Bring on the Truth detector !

The problem is that more often than not we read what we want to into charts... or then only read, and then post, the articles that support our own wishes or preconceptions when it comes to gold.

 

This reminds me of the "theory-laden view of observation" where the viewer always projects their theory [or wishes] onto observations, in order to make sense of/ interpret those observations, and where accordingly one can can never be purely objective.

 

I doubt whether any of us, whether bull, bear or bug, can fully extricate themselves from this, but being aware of it leads to less dogmatic views.

[drbubb]

Here's an example of flawed logic:

 

What is really scary about gold breaking the $1000 barrier is that it happened in the face of a flood short selling in US futures markets. So while gold was being driven up by Hong Kong buying, it has also been getting killed by unrelenting selling during COMEX hours. As can be seen in the chart below, the quantity of COMEX gold futures contracts has begun spiraling out of control since the end of August.

 

 

If Open interest is rising, you could equally argue that there has been a Flood of Buying by Hedge Funds. That would be a more accurate way describing what is going on.

 

Hedge Funds typically do not have a very long time horizon. So they are long gold "with a finger on the sell trigger." If gold falls, and hits their stops, you could easily see wave after wave of Hedge Fund sellers.

 

Believe what you want, but I find the article flawed.

[Mr Pipples]

The problem is that more often than not we read what we want to into charts... or then only read, and then post, the articles that support our own wishes or preconceptions when it comes to gold.

 

This reminds me of the "theory-laden view of observation" where the viewer always projects their theory [or wishes] onto observations, in order to make sense of/ interpret those observations, and where accordingly one can can never be purely objective.

 

I doubt whether any of us, whether bull, bear or bug, can fully extricate themselves from this, but being aware of it leads to less dogmatic views.

I read lots (bulls n bears) - don't take any of it as a given and post here what I find is of interest to myself, the theme of the threads and  sometimes individual posters. (I originally replied with this link to a post by Pixel8r over on Goldfingers thread.) Saying all that, I do take your point.

 

Here's an example of flawed logic:

 

What is really scary about gold breaking the $1000 barrier is that it happened in the face of a flood short selling in US futures markets. So while gold was being driven up by Hong Kong buying, it has also been getting killed by unrelenting selling during COMEX hours. As can be seen in the chart below, the quantity of COMEX gold futures contracts has begun spiraling out of control since the end of August.

 

 

If Open interest is rising, you could equally argue that there has been a Flood of Buying by Hedge Funds. That would be a more accurate way describing what is going on.

 

Hedge Funds typically do not have a very long time horizon. So they are long gold "with a finger on the sell trigger." If gold falls, and hits their stops, you could easily see wave after wave of Hedge Fund sellers.

 

Believe what you want, but I find the article flawed.

Who said it's believed or to be believed? When people post links here (well, when I do) they are sharing what they find of possible interest and relevance. Not necessarily (though they might be) saying the info is to believed. The article may well be flawed. Many 'knowledgeable' peoples writings, posts, strategies prove to be flawed - certainly at times. Doesn't mean they should be dismissed - what puts me off some opinion is when the writer seems to think they're 'flawless'.

 

Here's another article I find of interest: Are Gold, Oil and the S&P500 having a Seasonal Pivot Trading Low? - http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/a...ot-trading-low/

 

EDITED: slightly - to remove a little morning grumpiness.

[drbubb]

Who said it's believed or to be believed? When people post links here (well, when I do) they are sharing what they find of possible interest and relevance. The article may well be flawed. Many 'knowledgable' peoples writings, posts, strategies prove to be flawed - certainly at times. Doesn't mean they should be dismissed - what puts me off some opinion is when the writer seems to think they're 'flawless'.

 

No problem to have it posted here.

 

But, as I said, the logic looks strained to me, and I thought that should be pointed out.

[Mr Pipples]

Can't post the article as subscription needed - but can post the intro - which contains a statement I see as immediately relevant:

 

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/market-...ng-coming/30601

 

Sunday, November 1, 2009, 12:02 pm, by cmartenson

 

A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.

 

Link: Market Shift - Something Is Coming

 

A snippet:

 

As you know, I spend a great deal of time combing the available market information for clues about what is happening in the economy and where it may be leading us. This past week (October 24 - October 31, 2009) showed some amazing developments indicating that a major turning point is once again upon us.

 

This assessment is based on several key events, including the bankruptcy of Capmark Financial, which kicked off the week, the return of volatility to the stock market (reminiscent of past tops), and the bizarre strength in the price of gold on Friday, even as the Dow peeled off nearly 250 points.

[drbubb]

...the bizarre strength in the price of gold on Friday, even as the Dow peeled off nearly 250 points.

 

It looked bizarre to me too until I saw this:

 

Look carefully...

Back at October 2008.

There was a bizarre show of strength in Gold then too.

As stocks slid, Gold moved higher at first. A sort of "last gasp" flight to gold as a "safe haven."

Then it collapsed.

 

The next few days (and weeks?) are going to be interesting, especially if stocks slide.

[bitbigt]

Bring on the Truth detector !

"The truth is out there" ...but its intertwined with internet content comprising 'basics', 'fact', 'analysis', and 'conclusion'

 

My training/career is all about distinguishing these four;

- basics: essential to learn and understand

- fact: critical to keep up to date with

- analysis: do your own analysis (think for yourself!), and use the analyses of others only as a source of possibilities

- conclusion: ignore them all, as you will have reached your own conclusions by your own analysis

 

This way, you'll not follow any Pied Pipers into oblivion, and you'll have a fighting chance of staying that critical one small step ahead of the herd

[Mr Pipples]

It looked bizarre to me too until I saw this:

 

 

Look carefully...

Back at October 2008.

There was a bizarre show of strength in Gold then too.

As stocks slid, Gold moved higher at first. A sort of "last gasp" flight to gold as a "safe haven."

Then it collapsed.

 

The next few days (and weeks?) are going to be interesting, especially if stocks slide.

 

Maybe the same is on the cards... But quite a lot's happened since then. Wouldn't bet too much on it.