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Rolfe Winkler also recommends caution in listening to anything he has to say :lol:

 

As always: don’t make any buy/sell decisions based on anything you read in this space, nor construe anything written here as investment advice. You don’t want to anyway….I’m a shitty market-timer.

 

I often wonder what these folks who caution against gold would do with a lump sum in GBP. Just hold on to the cash?

I am not a trader. Just a small retail investor looking to protect what he already has.

From where I stand everything other than gold looks way too risky.

 

Right now, I suspect we could be seeing a lot of herding into gold as retail investors and other latecomers pile into the trade.

 

I just don't see this happening at all at the moment. The only thing I see is folks piling in to banking shares "for the long term" and selling their "gold4cash". As RH says we may never see a stampede from the retail investor.

 

As I keep saying when these companies on TV are trying to sell gold to you thats when we may have entered bubble territory.

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Rolfe Winkler recommends caution about time of entry to Gold these days:

 

http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/200...the-gold-trade/

This article provides NO detail as to why the writer thinks the way he does. If I were a less forgiving member of this forum I would ask for this post to be moved to a sub-forum or the dungeon. But thankfully I am broader minded than to ask for that ;)

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Our 'ker contra-indicator also said today was going to be bearish and we may see 1022 or 1025...

 

Look's like all systems go!

He can always be relied on :lol:

 

 

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Ed Steer also noticed that one. He received this in an email at the end of 2007:

"Did you realize that EVERY new multi-decade high gold has reached, from $425 or so in 2003 to $735 in 2006 to $843 in November to $843 last night, has occurred at 3 am EST on a Sunday night? EVERY SINGLE TIME! And EVERY SINGLE TIME gold has been IMMEDIATELY clocked to make sure that any excitement/sentiment/follow through that might occur is IMMEDIATELY squashed."

 

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayGsd.php

 

 

"Gold sentiment seems to diverging: America versus the rest."

 

Russia added 400,000 ounces in September.

 

"At this point in the year, over 1.02 million ounces of gold and 22.09 million ounces of silver have been converted into eagles."

 

"the ECB Central Bank squadron appears to be out of the gold market. Last week saw a 'sale' of only 0.09 tonnes"

Yeah that was were I noticed the article. Ed Steer's daily email is a very good daily read.

 

I didn't put his name to it as some people automatically just ignore anything which has anything to do with GATA. ;)

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I choose $2000 because this would reflect an eventual 50% devaluation of the dollar... who knows, maybe it will be closer to $3000 US dollars when they stabilize and peg the currency.

 

Keep in mind that in this scenario, US assets/houses would also have devalued against the dollar with prices halved [most likely the same in the UK]. If the currency in turn halves against gold, then the value of assets/ houses would have quartered against gold, which is a quadrupling of gold's present purchasing power.

 

I think these future dollars [$2000 buying an ounce of gold] are still very valuable in a future environment where there is scarcity of money and an abundance of cheap assets.

You do talk complete rot at times RH.

 

The price of gold has been suppressed for years by the concerted efforts of central banks selling their reserves to support fiat currencies. If you think the price of gold would only go to $2000 if the dollar lost another 50% of it's purchasing power there really is not much point trying to correct your thinking, as even the newest to this would see the fault in your thinking.

 

My time to use the stupid rolling eyes icon I think. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

 

You should load up on those soon to be rare dollars :lol:

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India festival saw unexpected jump in gold sales-trade

 

* Sales on Dhanteras festival up 10-30 pct from benchmark

 

* Consumers chose gold coins over jewellery

 

* Historic data shows big price rise ups 2H gold imports

 

MUMBAI, Oct 21 (Reuters) - India's gold sales for the Dhanteras festival could have risen up to 30 percent from a benchmark, as consumers expecting the near-record prices to rise further bought freely.

 

The Dhanteras festival, celebrated last Thursday, is India's biggest gold-buying day and generally accounts for sales of 15-40 tonnes in the world's biggest market, according to various trade estimates.

 

This year sales may have risen by a few tonnes for the festival from this benchmark.

 

"Sales were fantastic. Compared to last year, it was 20-30 percent up," said Harmesh Arora, director of NIBR Bullion Pvt Ltd, a Mumbai-based refinery that manufactures coins and bars.

 

Arora, who is also the vice president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said consumers especially bought coins as they thought prices could rise more.

 

Ajay Mitra, managing director-India of the World Gold Council, said gold sales were higher by 10-15 percent from a 40 tonnes benchmark because of a "media frenzy" over rising prices.

 

"Some sellers have told me consumers bought as they feared prices will rise. Some said consumers found no other asset class to invest," Mitra said.

 

"What helped people, was the availability of liquidity."

 

Gold prices MAUc1 touched an all-time high in India just a few days ahead of Dhanteras at 16,048 rupees ($345) per 10 grams on Oct. 13.

 

On Wednesday, gold was at 15,884 rupees, up 28 percent on year.

 

Data since 2000 shows in four of the five years that saw double digit percent increase in price on year, imports of gold in the festive second half of the year rose.

 

For a graphic showing India's correlation between gold price rise and gold imports in 2H, click: here

 

INVESTMENT-DRIVEN SALES

 

Gold sellers said they saw a switch to buying of gold coins and bars from jewellery.

 

"Demand from layman investors was more for coins and bars this festival as they bought with the intention of converting it later to jewellery," said Rahul Gupta, director of PP Jewellers in New Delhi.

 

A former India managing director of World Gold Council, Sanjeev Agarwal said consumers do buy coins on Dhanteras, though this year the volume had increased.

 

"Demand for bars and coins were substantially higher than jewellery as they are more economical," said Agarwal, who is now a consultant. A bullion dealer in a Mumbai bank, who did not want to be named, said sales of bars and coins across the counters recorded a 10 percent rise on year for Dhanteras. ($1=46.485 rupees)

 

 

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Stewart Thomson's latest on 321gold

 

interesting reading to say the least

 

Any US dollar rally is designed for one purpose only: To transfer the bulk of the carry trade into the hands of the banksters. Markets rise and fall on loss taking. Any USD rally now will be no different. The funds will make bits of money on the carry trade all the way down over the next several years, but give most of it back on rallies because of their overleveraged price chasing. The end of the USD bear will see the banksters long the USD against the rest of the world short. Before that end, all paper currencies will probably melt against gold in an amount that makes the paperland carry trade meaningless. Focus on gold. Or you will suffer the same fate as the public. If I'm wrong, you come out slightly ahead buying paper currencies against the USDollar versus holding gold. Do you think that if the US dollar really hyperinflates against gold, the other paper currencies won't do the same?
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Stewart Thomson's latest on 321gold

 

interesting reading to say the least

Thanks for that. Interesting read. Is this the "if your buying here you are buying from me" chap?

 

I also took a look round his website and found this gem of a video:

 

https://www.gracelandupdates.com/video/j1/j1.html

 

Gold has broken to new all time highs but the dollar not even broken back through the low of 72 yet.

Even during the stock panic we only got back to 88. Far from the high of 121

Be careful if you are looking to play a dollar rally as it could get ugly soon

Be prepared for money that will flow into gold from institutions as dollar breaks to fresh lows

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Important article by Jim Sinclair IMO

 

The Shift Between Gold Share Categories

 

At the beginning of a gold bull market it is gold itself, then Major Producers that perform.

 

As gold makes its way past $1000 to $1650 and beyond, the order up to now has been Major Producers and the top half of Junior Producers benefitting with while the short attacked the bottom half of Junior Producers and all of Gold Exploration entities. Watch closely now as a shift takes place.

 

No short of any viable gold share can be happy this evening even though across the board they are still short and in some cases still sitting on the price.

You might have noticed recently in the heavily shorted gold situations in the bottom half of the Junior Producers and many of the viable Gold Exploration entities that there was an at the close and after close attempt to destroy prices when in some instances million of shares were sold and bought. This occurred in some cases on volumes 18 times larger (volume on the day) than the previous norm. Exchange short figures indicate that these were long buys and only minimal short covering.

 

The leverage is always on the bottom side of the category scale, so I anticipate that the bottom half of Junior Producers and the viable companies in Gold Exploration entities to outperform the top half of Junior Producers and Major Producers as the price of gold continues higher in late 2009 and 2010.

 

 

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You do talk complete rot at times RH.

 

The price of gold has been suppressed for years by the concerted efforts of central banks selling their reserves to support fiat currencies. If you think the price of gold would only go to $2000 if the dollar lost another 50% of it's purchasing power there really is not much point trying to correct your thinking, as even the newest to this would see the fault in your thinking.

 

My time to use the stupid rolling eyes icon I think. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

 

You should load up on those soon to be rare dollars :lol:

It may sound like rot to some. Depends on your perpective really. I like to use Occam's razor and excise all unnecessary though commonly held beliefs such as dollar destruction, price suppression, elitist conspiracy etc [some of which I remain agnostic about].

 

I then just look at it within the macro-economic sphere. :rolleyes:

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It may sound like rot to some. Depends on your perpective really. I like to use Occam's razor and excise all unnecessary though commonly held beliefs such as dollar destruction, price suppression, elitist conspiracy etc [some of which I remain agnostic about].

 

I then just look at it within the macro-economic sphere. :rolleyes:

Your perceptive is rather twisted in my view, you are not even using Occam's razor correctly.

 

Occam's razor states that the explanation of any phenomenon should make as few assumptions as possible, eliminating those that make no difference in the observable predictions of the explanatory hypothesis or theory. - From Wiki

You have not eliminated "those that make no difference", in fact you have included false positives in your thinking.

 

Dollar destruction - The dollar is now worth less than 1% of it's value since the fed was created. All observers now say that the dollar is self-destructing due to bailouts and QE. Many countries are starting to move alway from being forced in using the dollar for trade and are forging new alliances and currencies.

 

Price suppression - GATA has proved it's case over and over that a cartel is suppressing the price, greenspan said it was so, nixon, many many others, gata has all the quotes.

 

 

 

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Here is another option for physical gold collectors.

 

A little corner shop run by a funny little Egyption fella is now flogging the physical stuff

 

see - No idea what the mark up is **. Still I guess they have it in stock. Anyone for the 2 stone 300K whopper ? They can store it too @ £230 pa

 

http://www.harrods.com/HarrodsStore/Global...50-2e7cce700a00

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/con...cle6877148.ece#

 

edit **

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_physical_101520091

 

Harrods' new gold department told BullionVault by phone today that its premium on Krugerrand gold coins is currently set 11% above spot price – twice the average mark-up already charged by typical US and European dealers.

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Stewart Thomson's latest on 321gold

 

interesting reading to say the least

 

I recommend this guy. His trading style (if you are a trader - of anything) has got to be of interest and his daily updates are always worth a read - even if you maybe don't go along with him all the way. 

 

Thanks for that. Interesting read. Is this the "if your buying here you are buying from me" chap?

Yes, that's the fella. But, that quote might not make sense unless you understand his trading method (pyramids for buys and sells - with a core you don't trade). He's very gold focused.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...nts-to-buy.html

 

'The gold price is too high now. No one wants to buy'

Speculators have driven the price of gold to record levels at the expense of demand from the jewellery sector, making it prone to a correction, according to dealers at a bullion conference.

The gold price is driven by the hedge funds, according to one executive.

But a recovery in the global economy and the strengthening of Asian currencies could also help jewellers, which account for half of global demand for bullion, cope with the rising prices.

"The price is driven by the hedge funds. If they still can make money from gold, the price of gold is going up," said Pawan Nawawattanasub, chief executive of YLG Bullion International, a leading jewellery exporter in Thailand.

 

"Everybody knows there's no demand from the jewellery sector. It's too high now. No one wants to buy," Pawan told Reuters on the sidelines of a gold outlook conference in Hong Kong.

Gold struck record highs at $1,070.40 an ounce last week after persistent weakness of the US dollar ignited fund buying. Gold was slightly lower at $1,056 on Thursday – still within sight of the peak.

Speculative net long positions on New York's Comex market hit another all-time high 253,955 lots in the week to October 13, suggesting growing risks for these long positions to be cleared and putting downward pressure on prices.

At the same time, gold was supported by inflation fears and a weaker US dollar, which in theory makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Gold is seen as a hedge against both inflation and a depreciating dollar.

"I expect more volatility in the price. As a price goes up, I expect that there will be corrections periodically. Gold is far from the top," said Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors.

"In some of the economies that have very important jewellery markets, particularly India and to some extend China, the economies have shown more signs of recovery than the Western economies."

But India, which accounted for more than 20pc of global demand for gold in 2008, has seen a slump in purchases since bullion first regained $1,000 early this year, with a poor monsoon also curbing demand, said dealers.

"Investors don't create fundamental demand. Investors are buying at certain levels, but they will also sell at certain levels. We can't predict investors' behaviour," said Anjani Sinha, president of the Indian Bullion Market Association, which represents about 10,000 jewellers.

"I will not predict price behaviour. But I can give you the fundamental factor that jewellery demand is not happening in India at this level."

India imported 131 tonnes of gold in January to September this year, down by 58pc from 315 tonnes in the same period in 2008, according to the Bombay Bullion Association, which represents about 460 traders and jewellers, mostly in Mumbai.

Demand for gold in India also hinges on a good monsoon, which boosts farm output and rural incomes. But India suffered from its worst monsoon since 1972 this year, followed by floods in parts of the country that damaged crops and pushed up food prices.

 

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"I expect more volatility in the price. As a price goes up, I expect that there will be corrections periodically. Gold is far from the top," said Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors

 

Why hasn't silver and gold exploded to the upside as hyper-inflationists have been predicting for the past year? Why do prices limp at these levels looking susceptible to falling when massive inflation expectations should send them rocketing? Rather than something being wrong with the prices, it seems to me there something is wrong with hyper-inflationary theory which calls for unrealistic prices. Gold is doing what it should do as currencies, along with all asset classes weaken. Yes, currencies, that cash you sit on, is also an asset now that it is a freely floated and traded commodity.

 

Theories should live and die by the sword of experience and hyper-inflationary theory looks to be taking a hammering. So how about theories which makes sense, ones that explans what gold is in fact doing and one that can predict where the price will go. Isn't that what a theory is for? A theory which does not give both clear explanations and predictions but instead exhortations and edifications is not a theory at all but a dogma.

 

That said, neither has gold prices collapsed to the downside as the conventional deflationists have predicted. It remains relatively stable and strong at these levels. What the deflationists often fail to see, along with the inflationists I might add, is that gold is not necessarily just an inflation hedge, or a commodity. Today it is morphing into a currency, or being "re-monetized" due to the efforts of CBs to debase the currencies. Gold will strengthen slowly as currencies weaken slowly... no surprises, no moon shots, no parabolas, no hyperinflationary holocaust, no hyperbole.. just a slow incremental mundane move to the upside, though perhaps with increasing volatility to both the up and down side as markets swing between inflation/ deflation trades.

 

Back to the quote, I quite agree. A more sober prediction for gold is an incremental move to the upside though it will only move to the upside in first this currency, and then in that currency, though the overall aggregate movement will be higher. This will be due to capital flowing form the centre to the periphery on the reflation/ inflation trade and then as capital reverses and flows back to the centre on the deflation trade. Think of the market as an unballasted ship populated by a seasick crew. These lurches in the market will create further instability in currencies which will be to gold's benefit.

 

In a volatile, uncertain and unstable market as this, the trend is definitely not your friend. Better to hold on firmly to contrarian positions which should keep you high and dry on the whiplash moves likely to be seen. Only the die-hard gold bug should be 100% invested in gold and silver here, as they will have the zeal and faith to ride out stormy patches [they will also be right in the end though for the wrong reasons]. The "less seasoned veterans" would do well to hedge in various currencies including gold, silver, dollars, Yen and maybe some other currencies. The more adventurous could then, if they so decided, swap/trade strengthened currencies for weakened ones. That said, and with the investor's hat on, you would not want to be all lost at sea here without a compass. The investor's compass or aim, where eventual profits are to be taken at a future date, should be in the accumulation of the strongest currency, that of gold.

 

 

This chart, comparing gold with both the dollar and the Euro, portrays well the way in which currencies will wax and wane and how gold will gain in the aggregate. I predict something of a repeat performance in the following year.

 

 

relative.gif

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Considering the UK news about the 'longest ever recession' is anyone considering swapping any silver for gold here?

I lightened up a little a while back. But am looking for the ratio to improve before I "take profits" by swapping to gold.

 

Not too concerned about having a large position in silver here... as bought at good prices... and will look to buy further with Yen and dollars should the market crash.

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