warpig Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 This is a nice chart... ref: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 This is a nice chart... Very nice thanks for posting. I wonder who is going to be making the difference between demand and mined output now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Hatter Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 He really is a complete muppet, we are so far from the man on the street getting in! I've yet to hear anyone outside this group and a few on HPC to mention it. I've only met one person in RL who was aware of physical and one who has shares in a gold ETF. Scarcely a gold rush at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I've yet to hear anyone outside this group and a few on HPC to mention it. I've only met one person in RL who was aware of physical and one who has shares in a gold ETF. Scarcely a gold rush at the moment. I do not think there will ever be a gold rush moment. Many here are waiting for that manic bubbly parabolic phase in gold... and then are anxious on how and when to "exit" gold. This is muddled thinking. Gold will only slowly and incrementally rise over the next few years and remain volatile in specific currencies.... think frogs and pots and why most of the public will not buy... they will just think it always looks bubbly, too expensive, and at every point susceptible to crashing. When gold is around $2000 in a few years time, I reckon it will be formally monetized in the backing of a new international currency. Only $2000 you say? But consider that asset prices would have halved and you have a four fold increase in "purchasing power". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I do not think there will ever be a gold rush moment. Many here are waiting for that manic bubbly parabolic phase in gold... and then are anxious on how and when to "exit" gold. This is muddled thinking. Gold will only slowly and incrementally rise over the next few years.... think frogs and pots and why most of the public will not buy... they will just think it always looks bubbly, too expensive, and at every point susceptible to crashing. When gold is around $2000 in a few years time, I reckon it will be formally monetized in the backing of a new international currency. Only $2000 you say? But consider that asset prices would have halved and you have a four fold increase in "purchasing power". Why is this not the case for all asset bubbles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Why is this not the case for all asset bubbles? It depends on whether the asset in question is in a bubble or not. If it is in a bubble, the public are right to be wary, if it is not, then they are right to buy. Many have commented on how the public do not see bubbles when there are bubbles, and then are quick to see bubbles everywhere once the previous bubble has popped. Anyway, this is a bit besides the point as I do not look at gold as a conventional asset. I see it as a currency and it's rise, when priced in other currencies, is only reflecting the degradation of those currencies. Increasing currency instability will lead to increasing instability in international trade,and then gold will be formally restored as a measure of value in order to stabilize currencies. From this perspective, GOLD CAN NEVER BE IN A BUBBLE. Essentially I see it is a problem of valuation. Value is doubly eroding out of assets and out of currencies now that the system is destabilized. The prime mover and bedrock of monetary value is gold, and I think the only way they will be able to stop the slide and restore some "ballast" is by re-institutionalizing gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 It depends on whether the asset in question is in a bubble or not. If it is in a bubble, the public are right to be wary, if it is not, then they are right to buy. Many have commented on how the public do not see bubbles when there are bubbles, and then are quick to see bubbles everywhere once the previous bubble has popped. Housing has clearly been in a bubble recently, yet people where desperate to get in even near the top, with the fear of never being able to get on otherwise. Remember all the sayings that were coming out like "Your have got to get on the ladder at any cost" etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InSilverWeTrust Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Why is this not the case for all asset bubbles? Maybe because a lick of paint and laminate flooring doesn't quite have the same effect on Pm's as it does housing! I wonder if we'll ever hear the term 'Gold Ladder'. All the public seem to be doing atm is jumping off that one...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Maybe because a lick of paint and laminate flooring doesn't quite have the same effect on Pm's as it does housing! I wonder if we'll ever here the term 'Gold Ladder'. All the public seem to be doing atm is jumping off that one...! People has been conditioned to think that gold is a risky investment, to go back to the safety of fiat. Even though it has held it's buying power far better than any currency for thousands of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Housing has clearly been in a bubble recently, yet people where desperate to get in even near the top, with the fear of never being able to get on otherwise. Remember all the sayings that were coming out like "Your have got to get on the ladder at any cost" etc... For sure. When there is a bubble [over-valued asset] the public doesn't see it, which is how it came to be over-valued in the first place. The "dead cat bounce" in housing, in certain countries such as the UK, reflects uncertainty by the public whether houses actually are in a bubble, and hence continued support at current prices. Though the seeds of doubt have been sown, it may take some time for this bubble to well and truly pop. Back to gold. How can gold be in a bubble and be over-valued if it is to become itself the very standard of value? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Back to gold. How can gold be in a bubble and be over-valued if it is to become itself the very standard of value? It's different this time is the mantra of the bubble, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 "most of the public will not buy... they will just think it always looks bubbly, too expensive, and at every point susceptible to crashing." Why is this not the case for all asset bubbles? Another go. It can only be a bubble if the public already have over-valued it and bid the price up. Bubbles teach us that perception is not reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 It's different this time is the mantra of the bubble, isn't it? Perhaps. But the reason I buy gold is not as an investment, commodity, inflation hedge... yadeyadeya.. but because I see a restoration of the gold standard in the wings. If economic conditions get to a point where a new gold exchange standard is required, in order to stabilize currencies,.... then talk of a bubble is irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I think you're mostly right, but I think your estimate of $2K is far too low even when offsetting against the inevitable currency devaluation(s). My prediction for parabolic moves will come if this crisis ends in a significant war that destabilises part of the globe. To be brutally honest I can't imagine any other outcome. I do not think there will ever be a gold rush moment. Many here are waiting for that manic bubbly parabolic phase in gold... and then are anxious on how and when to "exit" gold. This is muddled thinking. Gold will only slowly and incrementally rise over the next few years and remain volatile in specific currencies.... think frogs and pots and why most of the public will not buy... they will just think it always looks bubbly, too expensive, and at every point susceptible to crashing. When gold is around $2000 in a few years time, I reckon it will be formally monetized in the backing of a new international currency. Only $2000 you say? But consider that asset prices would have halved and you have a four fold increase in "purchasing power". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I think you're mostly right, but I think your estimate of $2K is far too low even when offsetting against the inevitable currency devaluation(s). My prediction for parabolic moves will come if this crisis ends in a significant war that destabilises part of the globe. To be brutally honest I can't imagine any other outcome. That could be closer than many think with the situations brewing in Iran and Pakistan. I think $2k is also far too low, I am expecting dow/gold to go 1/1. James Turk said in the recent bloomberg article about $8000 gold and 8,000 dow by 2013, which seems a lot closer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 That could be closer than many think with the situations brewing in Iran and Pakistan. I think $2k is also far too low, I am expecting dow/gold to go 1/1. James Turk said in the recent bloomberg article about $8000 gold and 8,000 dow by 2013, which seems a lot closer to me. This article here talks of gold at over $7000 per oz and rising. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14372.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I think you're mostly right, but I think your estimate of $2K is far too low even when offsetting against the inevitable currency devaluation(s). My prediction for parabolic moves will come if this crisis ends in a significant war that destabilises part of the globe. To be brutally honest I can't imagine any other outcome. I choose $2000 because this would reflect an eventual 50% devaluation of the dollar... who knows, maybe it will be closer to $3000 US dollars when they stabilize and peg the currency. Keep in mind that in this scenario, US assets/houses would also have devalued against the dollar with prices halved [most likely the same in the UK]. If the currency in turn halves against gold, then the value of assets/ houses would have quartered against gold, which is a quadrupling of gold's present purchasing power. I think these future dollars [$2000 buying an ounce of gold] are still very valuable in a future environment where there is scarcity of money and an abundance of cheap assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Interesting graph and article which shows the times of day the cartel intervenes to suppress prices. Gold Market Interventions - Dimitri Speck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I'm holding out for >$5K. I know this is a little off topic, but I think this is relevant, the sovereign finger screws are turning... From: From: That could be closer than many think with the situations brewing in Iran and Pakistan. I think $2k is also far too low, I am expecting dow/gold to go 1/1. James Turk said in the recent bloomberg article about $8000 gold and 8,000 dow by 2013, which seems a lot closer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I agree with this, I just think you aired on the side of caution. I choose $2000 because this would reflect an eventual 50% devaluation of the dollar... who knows, maybe it will be closer to $3000 US dollars when they stabilize and peg the currency. Keep in mind that in this scenario, US assets/houses would also have devalued against the dollar with prices halved [most likely the same in the UK]. If the currency in turn halves against gold, then the value of assets/ houses would have quartered against gold, which is a quadrupling of gold's present purchasing power. I think these future dollars [$2000 buying an ounce of gold] are still very valuable in a future environment where there is scarcity of money and an abundance of cheap assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 From: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I agree with this, I just think you aired on the side of caution. Yep, who can be sure what the price of the "Bernanke dollar" will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Interesting graph and article which shows the times of day the cartel intervenes to suppress prices. <img> Ed Steer also noticed that one. He received this in an email at the end of 2007: "Did you realize that EVERY new multi-decade high gold has reached, from $425 or so in 2003 to $735 in 2006 to $843 in November to $843 last night, has occurred at 3 am EST on a Sunday night? EVERY SINGLE TIME! And EVERY SINGLE TIME gold has been IMMEDIATELY clocked to make sure that any excitement/sentiment/follow through that might occur is IMMEDIATELY squashed." http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayGsd.php "Gold sentiment seems to diverging: America versus the rest." Russia added 400,000 ounces in September. "At this point in the year, over 1.02 million ounces of gold and 22.09 million ounces of silver have been converted into eagles." "the ECB Central Bank squadron appears to be out of the gold market. Last week saw a 'sale' of only 0.09 tonnes" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seekingclarity Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Something tells me we could break 1080 in the next 24 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Something tells me we could break 1080 in the next 24 hours.... Our 'ker contra-indicator also said today was going to be bearish and we may see 1022 or 1025... Look's like all systems go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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