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it's already done more than that just in this decade so far...

There is a real chance the dollar will rally in the next year or so by 50%. Then from a position of strength suddenly devalue against the stronger currencies. It is all relative.

 

Over a couple of years, the USDX could first go to 100 before going to 50.

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I agree with both cdswamp and roman holiday here. Long term I am sure cd is right but short term I think romans strategy will be proved correct. How many time have we seen the enthusiasm for collapsing dollar/soaring gold been crushed? Many times. IMO the dollar has 9 lives and now we might be on the 8th. There may well be one more turn around and another couple more years life in the dollar yet before we get cd's Andrex scenario. Look at last years deleveraging and the rush we saw to the dollar. Many didn't see that coming.

Then again we might be seeing the 9th life being wrung out of the dollar right now before our eyes. Who knows? Being hedged both ways seems appropiate. Gold, silver, cash. There is little benefit being 100% 'all in' anything. Best to stay alert as to whatever might be coming and willing and able to change course at the drop of a hat.

 

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On another note our STALKER source called today to let us know an active rumor in London is Israel is going to strike Iran before November 15. Naturally, they expect Iran to retaliate. Right, or wrong, this is "the skinny" among numerous savvy investors across the pond. Should this occur the dollar, gold and silver, and especially oil, will go ballistic.

 

Above from GATA... take it FWIW...

 

I got the same info from the webbot people's link you posted last week, to the mid-July George Noory show on Coast to Coast AM.

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Rubbish, this is wishful thinking of the worst sort. It is doomed, it is toilet paper - Andrex, fit to be flushed. Why do you think China and other countries are so desperate to get out of the dollar? Why are they spending their dollars on hard assets? Because they know what is coming down the pike. I think I read that it is worth about 3 per cent of it's value since the fed was created, maybe worse than that. Complete tosh RH. :lol:

Well, the proof will be in the pudding.... lets see what happens in the next few months. :rolleyes:

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Very fair points Jake but this is my reasoning - I traded silver back in 1999-2000 when it was around 5.5, on margin, and it dropped back to 4.25 or something and I lost my shirt, lost a lorra lorra money at the time - had I just sat at 5.5, we hit 21 8 years later - a fourfold increase. I also study the geopolitics and the chatter, and it is all pointing to an explosive move upwards. Now, having waited the best part of 10 years for a ten-bagger, I am not about to position myself OUT of the market (in cash, even 30 per cent) at this point in time - when the bank holiday or black swan comes, it will be like a thief in the night - no one will know when, without inside information. Now, if I am all in at this juncture, I may have a ten-bagger, or at least double or treble my stash. If, on the other hand, I try to trade a FIXED game, both in terms of the dollar and in terms of the criminal CRIMEX and LBMA bourses, then yes I may get lucky - these are pretty much 50:50 decisions, go long or short on silver and/or the dollar - sure, if I got LUCKY I may make a few more percent in toilet paper FRNs - whoopee!!! Actually, no, not whoopee, because the downside is HUGE, and the upside is just a few K more dollars at best. Also, playing these trades does not come cheap - you are setting yourself up for CGT and you have to pay as much as 5% in bullion premiums to get in and out - if you just buy bullion and hold, no commission. Overall the risk/reward situation right now I feel is heavily in sitting tight and not trying to get clever trading. Should silver crash again, I can afford to wait for the rebound and future march up. Should silver shoot to 100 or even 50, pick a number, you will never get an entry point again that does not make you feel sick.

 

Yes I can understand - I have been invested in gold stocks for the last 5 years and have taken the rises and falls but sold to cash 4 weeks ago on the advice of a broker , and so am down about 30% - so am hoping that RH and DrB are right about a stock market correction and a pull back in prices ( I think they are ), but I am now sweating !-Not worth the worry and better to stay invested -.But I think one still needs to set a target to sell - there will always be people expecting higher prices - but unless there is total chaos gold prices will peak at some stage and then fall quickly- perhaps in the next 2 years .

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Yes I can understand - I have been invested in gold stocks for the last 5 years and have taken the rises and falls but sold to cash 4 weeks ago on the advice of a broker , and so am down about 30% - so am hoping that RH and DrB are right about a stock market correction and a pull back in prices ( I think they are ), but I am now sweating !-Not worth the worry and better to stay invested -.But I think one still needs to set a target to sell - there will always be people expecting higher prices - but unless there is total chaos gold prices will peak at some stage and then fall quickly- perhaps in the next 2 years .

I wonder though if gold could become increasingly monetized [in the minds of investors/nations] to the point where the gold exchange standard will be re-instituted. The problem facing the trading system today is that is has been destabilized by the collapse in the US. The response to this collapse looks likely to further destabilize the free-floating currency system. If this does not necessarily lead to hyper-inflation, it may well still lead to currency crises where governments try to devalue their currency which would then see capital flight from one to another. Out of this kind of chaos, I can see the practicality of gold as the stabilizer of world trade reasserting itself [the value of which cuts across all cultures].

 

Personally, I see the price of gold eventually doubling from here within a couple of years time [though it will remain volatile to both sides] , which would effectively reflect certain currencies devaluing by a half. As for a new gold exchange standard, it could be SDRs backed by gold to which currencies would be pegged and stabilized.

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:lol:

 

 

This is more fuel for the Amero argument, or other alternatives...

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

 

Here is some interesting news from last week that seems to have gotten practically no coverage in the USA.

 

US backing for world currency stuns markets

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner shocked global markets by revealing that Washington is "quite open" to Chinese proposals for the gradual development of a global reserve currency run by the International Monetary Fund.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Published: 6:05PM GMT 25 Mar 2009

 

The dollar plunged instantly against the euro, yen, and sterling as the comments flashed across trading screens. David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, said the apparent policy shift amounts to an earthquake in geo-finance.

 

"The mere fact that the US Treasury Secretary is even entertaining thoughts that the dollar may cease being the anchor of the global monetary system has caused consternation," he said.

 

Mr Geithner later qualified his remarks, insisting that the dollar would remain the "world’s dominant reserve currency … for a long period of time" but the seeds of doubt have been sown.

 

The markets appear baffled by the confused statements emanating from Washington. President Barack Obama told a new conference hours earlier that there was no threat to the reserve status of the dollar.

 

"I don’t believe that there is a need for a global currency. The reason the dollar is strong right now is because investors consider the United States the strongest economy in the world with the most stable political system in the world," he said.

They are sly cunning foxes, behavioural economists playing mind games. They desperately want to see a dollar devaluation, and inflation, in order to rebalance the banks and reduce the national debt burden. Yet, as the adage goes, be careful what you wish for; the dollar may drop too low, and too fast, that they will panic and crash the markets in order to salvage the dollar and the treasury market. This would see a dollar spike the likes of which were seen last year.

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I wonder though if gold could become increasingly monetized [in the minds of investors/nations] to the point where the gold exchange standard will be re-instituted. The problem facing the trading system today is that is has been destabilized by the collapse in the US. The response to this collapse looks likely to further destabilize the free-floating currency system. If this does not necessarily lead to hyper-inflation, it may well still lead to currency crises where governments try to devalue their currency which would then see capital flight from one to another. Out of this kind of chaos, I can see the practicality of gold as the stabilizer of world trade reasserting itself [the value of which cuts across all cultures].

 

Personally, I see the price of gold eventually doubling from here within a couple of years time [though it will remain volatile to both sides] , which would effectively reflect certain currencies devaluing by a half. As for a new gold exchange standard, it could be SDRs backed by gold to which currencies would be pegged and stabilized.

 

 

IMO this is very important. After the upheavals of the past year with banks going tits up and QE printing presses running 24/7 and some exposure even on the controlled media to gold, I would imagine that the monetization of gold (in people's minds) is already starting to occur.

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IMO this is very important. After the upheavals of the past year with banks going tits up and QE printing presses running 24/7 and some exposure even on the controlled media to gold, I would imagine that the monetization of gold (in people's minds) is already starting to occur.

Yes, and then it makes sense to buy gold simply as a currency and not as an investment, a commodity, insurance, or an Armageddon hedge... though it may be all those things as well. :rolleyes:

 

Hmmm... not really "buying" gold so much as exchanging currencies.

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Could the people who are perma long and the people who trade short or long all put there trades into http://www.tipythia.com so we can get a clear answer on winning strategies :)

 

Sorry for the shameless plug (again), but this is the very purpose of the site, built with you guys in mind!

 

Since I started reading Housepricecrash and then GEI nearly 3 years ago I've made ~140% non-leveraged GBP gain, first on just 100% long physical gold strategy, but recently (9 months) 50% in HUI gold stocks and canadian junior mining tips. Tips that I got from this forum. All this at a time when most have been losing the shirt of their back. I have you all to thank for that. But I reckon some of you who actively trade must be doing even better, so please consider sharing your trades with tiPythia!!!

 

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Hmmm... not really "buying" gold so much as exchanging currencies.

This has been my approach to gold and silver for over a year now. Gold is a currency that can't be quantitatively eased.

 

 

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This has been my approach to gold and silver for over a year now. Gold is a currency that can't be quantitatively eased.

Yes, I have always viewed gold as a currency which is central to my speculations on "hyper-deflation".... where all financial assets, including cash, deflates. In this scenario, prices would become increasingly confusing because that used to price, namely currencies, are themselves deflating [devaluing]. In a macro environment where prices - which have conventionally been the measure of value - become increasingly deceptive, the investor has to step back and focus on [real] value. This is where gold has to once again become central in the financial sphere [not only for the investor] in so far as it has the ability to re-set and rebalance, at the international level, the value we place on goods and assets.

 

Given the above logic, CPI kind of becomes irrelevant.... due to the currency being in flux and losing its function of being a reliable measure of value.

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Yes, I have always viewed gold as a currency which is central to my speculations on "hyper-deflation".... where all financial assets, including cash, deflates. In this scenario, prices would become increasingly confusing because that used to price, namely currencies, are themselves deflating [devaluing]. In a macro environment where prices - which have conventionally been the measure of value - become increasingly deceptive, the investor has to step back and focus on [real] value. This is where gold has to once again become central in the financial sphere [not only for the investor but also for any international trading system] in so far as it has the ability to re-set and rebalance, at the international level, the value we place on goods and assets.

 

Given the above logic, CPI kind of becomes irrelevant.

The video I posted yesterday makes the same point. Worth a watch;

 

How Gold and Silver prices cause currency systems to crash

 

At most Business Schools you won't learn the real causes of currency crashes. But from historic perspective it has been a consequence of a distorted Gold - Currency relationship, causing huge outflows of Gold

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=128036

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Don't fancy a Leveraged Silver ETFS punt?

 

http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/document/e...asp#information

 

I've been eyeing it up for a while now.

Take out a paper derivative based investment in silver, to try and take advantage of the paper derivative problems in the world. Do you see where that could fall down?

 

 

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Take out a paper derivative based investment in silver, to try and take advantage of the paper derivative problems in the world. Do you see where that could fall down?

 

I do, I do, and I take your point.

 

But the probability of the price going up without meltdown, is much higher than it going up only in a meltdown.

 

And im only thinking of cheeky punt...

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The video I posted yesterday makes the same point. Worth a watch;

 

How Gold and Silver prices cause currency systems to crash

 

At most Business Schools you won't learn the real causes of currency crashes. But from historic perspective it has been a consequence of a distorted Gold - Currency relationship, causing huge outflows of Gold

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=128036

 

pix - did you listen to david tice on kwn last week?

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a longer term perspective....

 

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson092309.html

 

Roland Watson

Posted Sep 23, 2009

 

The critical juncture we suggested for silver last week has not changed. All the factors we have looked at point to silver dropping in the medium term though the shorter term (days to weeks) has scope for volatility. The RMA parameter mentioned before has sounded an alarm but for now a low decibel one. Other factors though are more shrill (refer to my blog for more details).

 

What I would like to point out (again) is that any correction is not the end of the matter for the gold and silver bull. The gold “M2 supply” chart we displayed some weeks back paints the picture of a bull market that is not over yet. This is an important chart that I think needs to be properly digested (gold cycles in black, silver price in red).

 

1.gif

 

The strong implication of this chart is that gold and silver have a few years left to run higher. In this remaining time frame I expect gold to challenge the 1980s highs on an inflation adjusted basis. Gold made new nominal highs at $1032 in March 2008 but that is well short of the inflation adjusted 1980 high of about $2500. Silver is unlikely to challenge its inflation adjusted high of $135 unless a mega-buyer like the Hunt brothers steps in again but the nominal high of $52 is certainly an objective.

 

The timeframe for this blow off is 2012 at the earliest which brings me to another issue. In terms of Elliott Wave Analysis, I used to think that gold and silver would both trace out a five part impulse wave from the beginning (1999 or 2001 for gold) and we would witness a classic fifth wave climax in the distant future.

 

I don’t think that will happen now - the projected 2012 timeframe does not allow enough time for it. If wave 1 was 1999/2001 to 2008 and this is a current wave 2 correction then two of the five waves have already occupied at least 8 years of a possible 13+ year bull market. That does not leave much time for waves 3, 4 and 5. So my opinion is that the entire bull market will be a three wave affair of which the second wave is nearing completion. Another confirmation for that is that the 1964-1980 bull was a distinct three wave pattern. The final third wave will outdo the first bullish wave and if we take the first gold bull wave to be from $255 to $1032 and multiply it by a likely Fibonacci 1.618 extension then the final blow off third wave for gold could reach out to about $2000 (i.e. $700 + ($1032-$255)*1.618) but it could of course go higher.

 

Applying the same projections to silver brings us to a minimum projection of $35 but it could spike briefly higher (i.e. $8.50 + ($21.34 - $4.50)*1.618)). By some coincidence, we also note that $35 is also simply $21 multiplied by 1.618. I would also point out that a projected line from the 2004, 2006 and 2008 silver highs extends out to the low $30s as a possible confirmation. Silver and gold stocks will naturally leverage higher by a factor of 2:1 or more.

 

That all sounds exciting for the precious metals investor but for the meantime investors need to be prepared for a medium term wash out in preparation for the next and final great buying opportunity.

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