narco Posted March 11, 2008 Report Share Posted March 11, 2008 A nice chart from cgnao.. I can't post in HPC.co.uk anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted March 11, 2008 Report Share Posted March 11, 2008 http://www.google.com/trends?q=oil%2C+mort...=all&sort=0 google trends doesn't suggest 'gold mania' is with us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 11, 2008 Report Share Posted March 11, 2008 http://www.google.com/trends?q=oil%2C+mort...=all&sort=0 google trends doesn't suggest 'gold mania' is with us yet. Yes, although the simple term "gold" is unhelpful because it's used in so many other contexts. Here's the same graph with "gold investment" Google Trends graph Now with gold investment and gold etf (the best terms I've managed to think of): Google Trends graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 11, 2008 Report Share Posted March 11, 2008 What do you think? The 1 year graph on BV GBP looks to me like the price will be up to a peak by the end of this week or the beginning of next week, if the pattern remains the same as it has over the last 10 weeks. http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do Well, I'm not a technical analyst and wouldn't care to predict short term prices (I consider mainly like 2 to 5 years or more). But many of the commentators are saying silver is well overbought and due for some consolidation and probably gold also but to a lesser extent (I read several last night on places like gold-eagle and others). But they were talking, I believe, very short term like days or a week or so. (And I appreciate that they are in the business of drumbing up trade for themselves.) One guy said the dollar was oversold, as also the DOW and like a true contrarian was betting against the herd. Glad I don't have to do this sort of stuff. I'm a plain, boring buy and hold guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 11, 2008 Report Share Posted March 11, 2008 Google trends for: precious metal, gold investment, gold etf, silver etf Google Trends graph The volumes are low. This one suggests to me that "precious metal" may be a better guage than the others, because there's better volume than the others, while as far as I can guess such a term could be often investment specific, unlike a more general term like "gold". I should be interested in better suggestions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pmaupoil Posted March 11, 2008 Report Share Posted March 11, 2008 Hello and welcome. What silver are you planning to acquire? Using GoldMoney for the time being. I do not want to go real physical just yet (i.e. buying coins) although it may be too late to find any when the situation will become too critical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enrieb Posted March 11, 2008 Report Share Posted March 11, 2008 Great news from bubble land, US stocks see their biggest gains in five years after the worlds central banks act to calm credit markets. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7289815.stm $200Bn here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7149329.stm $500Bn there A $416 gain in the dow suggests that the bubble is in great shape and if you wish to invest in the bubble yesterday was a great buying opportunity. Is this the first taste of what Jim Puplava has been referring to as an Oreo? Should you sell into this rally or see it as a turning point? All that is needed to keep the bubble alive is for central banks to lend banks somewhere between $200-700Bn and keep rolling the loan over each month. Sorry but I am not very fluent in emoticons, is there a suitable sarcasm emoticon that I can use to frame my post correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted March 11, 2008 Report Share Posted March 11, 2008 This one suggests to me that "precious metal" may be a better guage than the others, because there's better volume than the others, while as far as I can guess such a term could be often investment specific, unlike a more general term like "gold". I should be interested in better suggestions. Wren, this is a very nice technique to guage the global public's thinking on gold. I have tried "buy gold", "sell gold" and "krugerrand", which may be more laymen's terms in terms of gold investment perhaps. http://www.google.com/trends?q=buy+gold%2C...=all&sort=0 "Buy gold" shows a gradual, but volatile, increase since 2004. "Sell gold" appears suddenly late 2005 and has had a consistent volume ever since. "Krugerrand" has shown a sudden rise in volume that has held since middle of 2007. Edit: comma in the wrong, place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 "Buy gold" shows a gradual, but volatile increase, since 2004."Sell gold" appears suddenly late 2005 and has had a consistent volume ever since. "Krugerrand" has shown a sudden rise in volume that has held since middle of 2007. Nice.I had forgotten that "buy gold" which I checked a while back, was a good one, but the other two are spot on. But talking of krugerrands and Joe Public, dare I post again the krugerrand video? Such an excellent bad taste piece IMO. I love the nerd, well, not love, you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Well guess what. Signs are popping up around around New York City, the nerve center of US finance, saying that EUROs are the preferred payment method. When the US store keepers start turning their nose up at the unstable reserve currency you know the grim reaper is on his way: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...2401642_pf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Hello everyone I am now Casimir (pmaupoil from HPC). I am just back from my holidays and I just cannot believe how big is the new thread already! I hope there will be a few non gold bugs balancing the debate, after reading many pages I have not seen any unfortunately. I was not contributing much due to my lack of economics knowledge but I really enjoyed reading the experts' comments and I hope this will continue here. I have all of my savings in BV but I am planning very soon to put 10% in silver and subsequently my monthly savings in it. Welcome As with many others, I also welcome good well thought out arguments against gold/silver. The enemy of any investor is complacency and a belief they can't lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 It doesn't matter if the ETFs has gold or doesn't, whether it leases it out or not, or anything else really. The important question you have to ask yourself is why do I want to buy gold? If your answer is you are predicting a meltdown in the financial system, then you should stay clear of anyone's promise to give you something in the future - which ETFs are - and banks for that matter. If, on the other hand you think Gold is just going up in price because of speculation, and eventually all will be well and Gold will go down in value, then you can stick to EFTs etc.However, if you are seriously worried about the state of the world's financial system, your only protection is physical Gold in your possession or with someone you trust explicitly. I know this can be inconvenient, but the system is designed to hoard all your lolly into bankers' accounts. You have to exit this system. You saved me typing it The thing about ETFs as I understand it, is that the cartel can short them. They can't short the gold coin in my hand because there is no mechanism for doing it. If everyone took delivery of their gold, the cartel would have rather a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Something to consider for those who think gold is in a bubble right now......... Gold 1980 was $850 while US money supply was $1.5 Trillion Gold 2008 is $970 and the US money supply is $12 Trillion ***edit*** Actually... M3 is probably more like $15 Trillion dollars now and rising. Narco, please update your post. It's already out of date As (I think) David Morgan said "When I say A Dollar is a Dollar, I'm lying, because as soon as I've said it it's become untrue". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Narco, please update your post. It's already out of date As (I think) David Morgan said "When I say A Dollar is a Dollar, I'm lying, because as soon as I've said it it's become untrue". I saw the video of him saying that yesterday (maybe it was posted on this thread?). Obvious, but nice to see him and the interviewer say it. In a simliar vein I notice errol and others trying to educate people over on that "other site". But I didn't say the D word, no. So I don't have to correct myself that it's not already what I said. Now if you say gold it's a different matter. Up, down, shake-it-all-around your ounce of gold is still that. And gold inflation is about 2% per annum so not frightening. If your gold is really deflating you have a serious problem: you need pixie-proof containers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Gold building a nice base here between 960 and 990, a little consolidation here will be good as the next of round of rate cuts should catapult us beyond 1K. The ratio of oil/gold is well below 10 now - which is buy for gold in my book. Also, this morning on CNBC some guy from Kitco was bad mouthing Gold, which he claims has topped because of the twice failed attempts at 1,000. I think his name was Nader. The gold pool on Kitco must be in the red for him to say this, as Kitco sells gold! John Nadler, you can also hear him on: http://www.KEreport.com He usually offers useful comments, but I do not agree this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 wren, It might have been from here. I look at so many things in a day I don't know whether I'm coming or going sometimes Talking of which, from Jim just now: Derivatives the new 'ticking bomb' Buffett and Gross warn: $516 trillion bubble is a disaster waiting to happen Right about here Data on the five-fold growth of derivatives to $516 trillion in five years comes from the most recent survey by the Bank of International Settlements, the world's clearinghouse for central banks in Basel, Switzerland. The BIS is like the cashier's window at a racetrack or casino, where you'd place a bet or cash in chips, except on a massive scale: BIS is where the U.S. settles trade imbalances with Saudi Arabia for all that oil we guzzle and gives China IOUs for the tainted drugs and lead-based toys we buy.To grasp how significant this five-fold bubble increase is, let's put that $516 trillion in the context of some other domestic and international monetary data: * U.S. annual gross domestic product is about $15 trillion * U.S. money supply is also about $15 trillion * Current proposed U.S. federal budget is $3 trillion * U.S. government's maximum legal debt is $9 trillion * U.S. mutual fund companies manage about $12 trillion * World's GDPs for all nations is approximately $50 trillion * Unfunded Social Security and Medicare benefits $50 trillion to $65 trillion * Total value of the world's real estate is estimated at about $75 trillion * Total value of world's stock and bond markets is more than $100 trillion * BIS valuation of world's derivatives back in 2002 was about $100 trillion * BIS 2007 valuation of the world's derivatives is now a whopping $516 trillion Moreover, the folks at BIS tell me their estimate of $516 trillion only includes "transactions in which a major private dealer (bank) is involved on at least one side of the transaction," but doesn't include private deals between two "non-reporting entities." They did, however, add that their reporting central banks estimate that the coverage of the survey is around 95% on average. Do you think this is at all relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Thanks Steve, I'll have to look at that tomorrow. Sometimes all these big trillions become meaningless to me. So I guess the US per capita GDP is about 11 trillion or so? I can just about comprehend that, but when it gets to hundreds of trillions, I sort of faze out. Is this wealth which already exists ? and if not, where in this finite world is it to come from? Perhaps I oughtn't read that "other site", but thankfully there's still a good crew over there to combat gems like this, about the dot con days (a very small sample of the, let one say, possibly unhelpful commentary): And millions of them lost everything because the big boys had IT systems that could sell shares and they got out whilst most of the day trading systems went down so swamped were they with people trying to sell. I think gold is going to be the same. I know I shouldn't bother, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Where does it come from I assume the same place all the other money comes from. I go into the bank, ask for a loan, and the nice lady behind the counter selects my account, types in a number, and presses ADD. And all she wants in return is a bit of paper with my signature on it. Am I the only one who walks into a bank and finds it difficult not to laugh ? Just remember, if you drop it and it hurts your foot, that's real money Now, what do you think, is this what US$200 billion buys you these days ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Now you've got me thinking ! Hope I get the zeros in the right place Population of the world = 6,600,000,000 (6.6 billion) (roughly, not sure how many were born/died today ) That's 0.0066 trillion * U.S. annual gross domestic product is about $15 trillion = $2300 / person * U.S. money supply is also about $15 trillion * Current proposed U.S. federal budget is $3 trillion * U.S. government's maximum legal debt is $9 trillion * U.S. mutual fund companies manage about $12 trillion * World's GDPs for all nations is approximately $50 trillion * Unfunded Social Security and Medicare benefits $50 trillion to $65 trillion * Total value of the world's real estate is estimated at about $75 trillion = $11,000 / person * Total value of world's stock and bond markets is more than $100 trillion * BIS valuation of world's derivatives back in 2002 was about $100 trillion * BIS 2007 valuation of the world's derivatives is now a whopping $516 trillion = $178,000 / person Does that help? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Is this how banks work ? Banks and how they work http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story....7681&pnum=0 "'Banking at its most basic involves sourcing a commodity [in this case money] in bulk, at a certain price and making it available in smaller amounts useful to the consumer [for example, a mortgage or personal loan or through a credit card] at a slightly higher price [a margin]." No mention there of fractional reserve lending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 What effect, if any, should we expect today's Budget to have on the price of gold? EDIT: Thinking about it, this may seem (and, indeed, actually be) a stupid question. First of all, the price of gold seems to be a global affair perhaps hardly affected by some piddly little country's annual economy-related PR exercise! For another thing, I know many of you aren't from the UK anyway, so may not even be really aware of 'The' Budget. Lastly, The Budget, as hinted, may actually be nothing more than a PR exercise for the public's benefit, while the folks who really have the power to affect the price of gold will learn nothing they didn't already know anyway! I'll shut up now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Derivatives the new 'ticking bomb'Buffett and Gross warn: $516 trillion bubble is a disaster waiting to happen Do you think this is at all relevant BIS valuation of world's derivatives back in 2002 was about $100 trillion * BIS 2007 valuation of the world's derivatives is now a whopping $516 trillion = = I think it is the worst sort of deception to pump out figures like that, without explaining something. These derivatives figures include loads of double, triple, and even ten-fold counting, because of the nature of Over-the-counter markets. To explain what I mean in a few words, those figures count footprints, as well as the positions that people are actually standing in. If you want a longer explanation, ask and if I have time, I will give one ... again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 Yes, although the simple term "gold" is unhelpful because it's used in so many other contexts. Here's the same graph with "gold investment" Google Trends graph Now with gold investment and gold etf (the best terms I've managed to think of): Google Trends graph Indeed the term gold is very general... Gold price is a better search term: Try http://www.google.com/trends?q=buying+gold...=all&sort=0 note "buying gold" is not surging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 This has to be the "best" article I have read in the mainstream media, showing how serious the situation is. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...12/cnfed112.xml Fed takes boldest action since the Depression to rescue US mortgage industry "Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG, said the Fed action may help calm the markets for now, but it cannot solve the root problem of eroded bank capital." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinny Posted March 12, 2008 Report Share Posted March 12, 2008 BIS valuation of world's derivatives back in 2002 was about $100 trillion* BIS 2007 valuation of the world's derivatives is now a whopping $516 trillion = = I think it is the worst sort of deception to pump out figures like that, without explaining something. These derivatives figures include loads of double, triple, and even ten-fold counting, because of the nature of Over-the-counter markets. To explain what I mean in a few words, those figures count footprints, as well as the positions that people are actually standing in. If you want a longer explanation, ask and if I have time, I will give one ... again I'll have a go for you if you like, using my [poor] memory of one of your old podcasts A derivitive may be repackaged and sold on many times [say 10 times], just like "pass the parcel"? BIS valuations count all 10 of those transactions when it should just be the last, as that party is the only one holding the "parcel"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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