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edit: GoM - the jewelry I am referring to is Eastern 22+ carat stuff, sold at close to spot. The Western, highly worked, low carat stuff is not significant in the overall physical market.

 

What makes you think eastern jewellery is sold close to spot?

 

EDIT: From you above link, Gold cost 12,000 Rupees per gram = £24.365 per gram. That’s about 70% more than BV

 

Edit again. ****** the numbers up. But the question still stands

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.....

 

Anyone who bought before middle of 2005 is still up 100% (in Sterling). Anyone having bought before middle of 2007 should still be up some 30% (exception the peak in 2006). Anyone who has bought recently possibly needs to wait a couple of years in order to get a clearer picture. As Jim Sinclair said, volatility in gold will reach spiritual levels. I think we're still in the beginning of all this.

 

.....

 

So re-emphasises to me to just dollar cost average. Wish I had (bet I bought most at the 2006 peak!). Simple really and saves a lot of time trying to do TA on something too volatile, manipulated, etc. I was just in too much of a hurry to get in. Now I'm in, I can slow down my accumulation.

 

BTW, I find things very different when your core holding is in gold and it becomes your reference point. Oh look fiat GBP is down against gold. Oh look, fiat USD is up against gold. Etc, etc. I basing this on the comment that the long-term cost of things do not change much in relation to gold. The "fiats" are all bouncing around off each other but are all on the same bus going off the cliff. Gold is the currency for me. The rest is noise.

 

 

 

 

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What makes you think eastern jewellery is sold close to spot?

 

In India, you buy jewelry for spot + workmanship. The workmanship is negotiable, and will obviously depend on how ornate the design.

 

 

 

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"Investors worldwide are selling everything, including the kitchen sink, and gold is no exception," said Peter Grandich, chief commentator at Agoracom, an online marketplace for the small-cap investment community.

 

It seems the only way to explain the fact that *everything* is going down, except the dollar.

 

I sometimes have to pinch myself to make sure I'm not dreaming, because everything I thought I'd 'learned' over the last few years seems to be going out of the window. Either I'm going insane (always plausible) or the financial world has gone mad. One or the other.

 

Ok, maybe both.

 

But I'm fortunate enough to be psychologically prepared for all this. I've had inverse-Midas touch all my life, so whenever I get involved in something it's a pretty safe bet that it'll go wrong somehow. So having finally bought into gold & silver in the last six weeks, I knew in my bones that I had to be genuinely prepared for half of that (paper) money to disappear. Or, as I now prefer to think of it, be prepared to face up to the fact that the same cash might soon buy me twice as much shiny 'protection'.

 

As Chris Martenson points out in Chapter 20, you have to weigh up the balance of probabilities in all actions you take, and factor in your personality. In this case I was genuinely prepared for financial Armageddon and its consequences, and the short term cost in this instance has definitely been worth it for me. Especially as while Armageddon may have been put on hold, it's a safe bet that the fiscal muzak being played down the line isn't going to placate that awkward customer forever. Even if it hangs up, the underlying issues still exist, and farming out the call centre to Asia won't help. Even they have limits to their patience. So my instinctive move into PM insurance still feels sound, even if my timing could have been better.

 

It was ever thus!

 

So now my mindset has shifted on to the next chapter. I cannot alter the past (not unless Dr Bubb is related to Dr Who), and I'm glad Armageddon has been postponed. Perhaps indefinitely, but probably just to be replaced by Arsageddon... which is like Armageddon only all the action takes place below the waist, out of sight, and involves the taxpayer and nowhere near enough vaseline.

 

I am now watching gold & silver with renewed interest, hoping they'll head south faster than sterling so I can continue to fill my Lego Fort Knox with something which still feels safer -- perhaps totally irrationally -- than the electronic sterling which lands in my bank account every month. I may only end up with the heaviest Lego castle in the UK, but in less than 40 years I'll probably be worm fodder. At least I'll leave something interesting behind... assuming I haven't bartered it all away for firewood or been locked up for refusing to hand it over to the the New World Disorder. :-)

 

Andrew McP

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Great post Andrew - my gold and silver is still there in my safe exactly as I left them - they care not how many peices of paper someone thinks they are worth. They are my insurance policy when our Govt goes to the IMF for another handout...

 

When gold/silver goes down further, I will be moving into gold money and gambling with my fiat there. If I do well, then I will get it in physical form.

 

Goldbugs - please do not think i have turned to dark side and start hating me. Hate the game, not the player...

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I fully agree that those who want to see gold as their insurance should continue to accumulate. I will do so too, but I see gold as more than just an insurance.

 

For the TA nerds: how about $666 as a turning point for gold? MUAHAHAHA!

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I fully agree that those who want to see gold as their insurance should continue to accumulate. I will do so too, but I see gold as more than just an insurance.

 

For the TA nerds: how about $666 as a turning point for gold? MUAHAHAHA!

 

:lol: yes i seen that

Are you sitting down GF.....bloomberg are bullish on gold :o

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It seems the only way to explain the fact that *everything* is going down, except the dollar.

 

I sometimes have to pinch myself to make sure I'm not dreaming, because everything I thought I'd 'learned' over the last few years seems to be going out of the window. Either I'm going insane (always plausible) or the financial world has gone mad. One or the other.

 

Ok, maybe both.

 

But I'm fortunate enough to be psychologically prepared for all this. I've had inverse-Midas touch all my life, so whenever I get involved in something it's a pretty safe bet that it'll go wrong somehow. So having finally bought into gold & silver in the last six weeks, I knew in my bones that I had to be genuinely prepared for half of that (paper) money to disappear. Or, as I now prefer to think of it, be prepared to face up to the fact that the same cash might soon buy me twice as much shiny 'protection'.

 

As Chris Martenson points out in Chapter 20, you have to weigh up the balance of probabilities in all actions you take, and factor in your personality. In this case I was genuinely prepared for financial Armageddon and its consequences, and the short term cost in this instance has definitely been worth it for me. Especially as while Armageddon may have been put on hold, it's a safe bet that the fiscal muzak being played down the line isn't going to placate that awkward customer forever. Even if it hangs up, the underlying issues still exist, and farming out the call centre to Asia won't help. Even they have limits to their patience. So my instinctive move into PM insurance still feels sound, even if my timing could have been better.

 

It was ever thus!

 

So now my mindset has shifted on to the next chapter. I cannot alter the past (not unless Dr Bubb is related to Dr Who), and I'm glad Armageddon has been postponed. Perhaps indefinitely, but probably just to be replaced by Arsageddon... which is like Armageddon only all the action takes place below the waist, out of sight, and involves the taxpayer and nowhere near enough vaseline.

 

I am now watching gold & silver with renewed interest, hoping they'll head south faster than sterling so I can continue to fill my Lego Fort Knox with something which still feels safer -- perhaps totally irrationally -- than the electronic sterling which lands in my bank account every month. I may only end up with the heaviest Lego castle in the UK, but in less than 40 years I'll probably be worm fodder. At least I'll leave something interesting behind... assuming I haven't bartered it all away for firewood or been locked up for refusing to hand it over to the the New World Disorder. :-)

 

Andrew McP

 

So true, so true!

Cheers Andrew

 

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John Embry reckons traders on CRIMEX may soon want to take delivery, hoorah!

Imagine reports of widescale delivery failures? The price would probably double or triple overnight.

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I fully agree that those who want to see gold as their insurance should continue to accumulate. I will do so too, but I see gold as more than just an insurance.

 

For the TA nerds: how about $666 as a turning point for gold? MUAHAHAHA!

 

It seemed at one time to be forever hitting 666 -

 

It looks like deflation is a possibility at least for now, so i have had a good look at Mish's site and some of his stuff on gold.

 

It reassured me alot, gold is good in deflation it certaily was in the 30's deflation.

 

We are in uncharted waters Fiat deflation happened in Japan but that's irrelevent to the gold market at that time as Japan is only a small part of the golbal ecomomy.

 

+ He beleives the manipulation while he is sure it happens is overrated by gold bugs, free market forces are the main mover.

+ Gold has gained in value dramatically against other assets, this will continue as deflation continues.

+ Gold is good to hold because we cannot be really sure what the authorities are doing - hyperinflation could happen - but only if they make a serious misjudgement.

+ Monetary demand is all that matters - jewellery demand is largely irrelevent as is mine production.

+ He beleives gold while it is not money anywhere now behaves as money and should be treated as a currency.

+ Gold does poorly in normal/good times.

+ Gold does well in difficult times - he beleives thing are not going to get better any time soon - the deflation will last years.

+ The managers of our Fiat currencies are much more capable than those in the past they know that gradual inflation works - they have made it work for nearly a century with no panic, we should not expect elementary mistakes like those that crashed historic fiat currencies.

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:lol: yes i seen that

Are you sitting down GF.....bloomberg are bullish on gold :o

That really is a worry. They incorrectly call the bottom on everything.

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Yes, I was thinking we may be in for quite a time horizon here... but then again, the macro situation seems so much more dire than the seventies. I could see things coming to a head next year.

 

YES

 

According to the every 2 year (odd) blow off theory we are due another major move up mid-late next year.

 

happened in 2003/5/7

 

2009???

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YES

 

According to the every 2 year (odd) blow off theory we are due another major move up mid-late next year.

 

happened in 2003/5/7

 

2009???

 

I would not be surprised if it went to $2000 and back to where it is now.

 

The 70's bull had a 50% correction and I am pretty sure there was no manipulation then and a less serious financial crisis too.

 

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Ker, do you think we will go even lower?

 

gold did not hit my lower channel line, but the environment for the rally is very good, dollar topped, stocks holded, we should have rally tomorrow, and monday, and tuesday, retest the bottoms. I think silver is more oversold than gold, so it has more solid bottom

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[...]

+ He beleives gold while it is not money anywhere now behaves as money and should be treated as a currency.

+ Gold does poorly in normal/good times.

+ Gold does well in difficult times - he beleives thing are not going to get better any time soon - the deflation will last years.

[...]

 

What about the 'good times' between 1999 and 2007?

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gold did not hit my lower channel line, but the environment for the rally is very good, dollar topped, stocks holded, we should have rally tomorrow, and monday, and tuesday, retest the bottoms. I think silver is more oversold than gold, so it has more solid bottom

Just out of interest, Ker ... do you trade your charts, or just do it for amusement/education/confirmation of a long-term strategy?

 

If you do trade, do you ever go short, or just prefer to exit the market when you think a downturn is on the cards?

 

----

Minor whinge moment... At times I really do rue the day I decided to get into the whole gold and silver thing. At the start of 2008 I was minding my own business hedging my GBP savings with GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF shorts - had I stuck with that approach and not dabbled in G&S I would have protected my savings well and made a healthy profit. Instead, my savings have been exposed to this devaluation, and I've lost a sizeable wedge of cash on G&S.

 

Looking at the GBP/JPY chart this evening really breaks my heart. I bailed out of that in July and concentrated on G&S. What a mistake?!! :angry:

 

 

 

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OILB - a GBP denominated oil ETF, backed by Shell (so safe) and the underlying asset (oil) actually belongs to the investor, so no counterparty risk.

 

I put one toe in at USD 101 (OILB £47), several toes more at USD 92 (OILB £42), and a big foot at USD 72 (OILB £33). I'm now only about 10% down on this overall investment, and plan to double up if oil falls to USD 50 anytime in the next 3-12 months (which is possible, though not very likely). I will hold for 5-10 years if necessary, and xepect to see oil hit several hundred dollars in that time frame (i.e., 3-4 fold return)

 

I've also got one toe in BP, at 470p, and plan to triple this investment if it get back into the 350p region in the next 3-12 months, which is quite possible I think

 

Hi

 

I am looking into buying OILB too and am wondering if anyone has been able to do this through TD Waterhouse? When I try it they don't recognise the stock symbol.

 

Sorry to go off topic.

 

GD

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