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There maybe are a few on here who comment from a trading perspective but I think there's also a fair number of people who've thrown a big part of what they have into PMs - cause they figured it the best thing to do considering the scary shit that's going down. Depending on situations, this may have a serious, major effect on their (& families, dependants, children) future well-being. Can't blame them for being bothered by how things are playing out.

Anyone who bought before middle of 2005 is still up 100% (in Sterling). Anyone having bought before middle of 2007 should still be up some 30% (exception the peak in 2006). Anyone who has bought recently possibly needs to wait a couple of years in order to get a clearer picture. As Jim Sinclair said, volatility in gold will reach spiritual levels. I think we're still in the beginning of all this.

 

I can see no change in the fundamentals so far. The sell-off in commodities is amazing, but I don't buy into the idea that this is a long term development. If yes, I will be happy, enjoy cheap food, gas and go on overseas holidays all the time.

 

The biggest bubble of all is still inflating, and in fact at higher and higher speed: Western government bonds. Gold will rule when this bubble bursts. We might have a few 'nice' years left before this will happen. But it could come sooner. Until then, I will continue to accumulate unless something changes dramatically in the fundamentals.

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Anyone who bought before middle of 2005 is still up 100% (in Sterling). Anyone having bought before middle of 2007 should still be up some 30% (exception the peak in 2006). Anyone who has bought recently possibly needs to wait a couple of years in order to get a clearer picture. As Jim Sinclair said, volatility in gold will reach spiritual levels. I think we're still in the beginning of all this.

 

I can see no change in the fundamentals so far. The sell-off in commodities is amazing, but I don't buy into the idea that this is a long term development. If yes, I will be happy, enjoy cheap food, gas and go on overseas holidays all the time.

 

The biggest bubble of all is still inflating, and in fact at higher and higher speed: Western government bonds. Gold will rule when this bubble bursts. We might have a few 'nice' years left before this will happen. But it could come sooner. Until then, I will continue to accumulate unless something changes dramatically in the fundamentals.

 

Agreed and in the meantime it is also commercial to hedge your exposure & profit from short term declines, by selling gold forward in the paper market on a 3 and / or 6 month forward contract against the USD, whilst keeping your physical gold in a safe place.

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A large tract of this selling is no doubt due to hedge fund redemptions triggering forced liquidation to meet demands for cash, this causes asset price devaluation and leads to further redemption requests, forced liquidation and the cycle repeats. I'm no expert but hedge funds would probably need to sell x% of all positions in order to raise cash rather than select a particular sector otherwise this would disrupt their current hedging model.

 

Possibly this is one of the reasons why Jim Sinclair stated there would be huge volatility. Dan Norcini on jsmineset.com also alluded to the covering of large shorts, this would account for some of the large upward spikes in the price.

 

I was about to buy a large quantity when the price was at $880 but hesitated.

 

In any market where assets are owned on leverage and the credit that the leverage is based on is being wound down I would expect to see continued downside in the price. I would also expect to see a gradual continuing reduction in the volatility as the amount of credit in the market is rebalanced with the amount of credit willingly supplied to the players in the market. Roughly translated I am going to purchase again when the price calms down and goes sideways for a bit, maybe at 600 - 700 with no wild swings.

 

The $64,000 question is will the downward trend in gold end with a sudden event like Pakistan chaos, inflation getting out of hand or a bond collapse? I am thinking March next year but that may be leaving it too late.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Problem is that these threads have turned into a short term/trading discussion.

 

I might soon start a new thread where I will discuss longer term issues only, like the one I have on GIM.

 

 

 

linky please?

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Gold needs to find a bottom here.

 

More likely at 700 then a countertrend rally to somewhere near the top of the channel before the next move down.

 

fsspon3ed3.gif

[url=http://g.imag

 

The correlation between the gold/dollar with euro/dollar and oil/dollar have been resumed over the last 2 weeks.

I'm not sure that we'll see a turn around in gold until we see a turn around in oil.

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Anyone who bought before middle of 2005 is still up 100% (in Sterling). Anyone having bought before middle of 2007 should still be up some 30% (exception the peak in 2006). Anyone who has bought recently possibly needs to wait a couple of years in order to get a clearer picture. As Jim Sinclair said, volatility in gold will reach spiritual levels. I think we're still in the beginning of all this.

 

I can see no change in the fundamentals so far....

Hi G0ldfinger - I couldn't agree more.

 

I remain 25% up on my PM purchases, all in GBP. And with all this new money created to bail out the banks and soften the recession, and realising that far more yet still will be 'invested' (i.e. printed) by the govs, then there is no way gold and silver will be worth less in a few years time than they are now.

 

In fact, with stock markets now starting another big leg down (I estimate 20% further to fall in next several months) we might well get another phase of panick buying in gold very soon now.

 

I am so confident about all this that I'm barely checking the PoG recently, or checking into this bb (sorry all!). I'm certainly not loosing any sleep - and hope that others may take heart from the informed confidence shown by me, you, CGNAO, and several others. Furthermore, I even just topped up in oil, and still have some powder dry for to double my oil and silver purchases over the next 6 months as the slowdown reaches its peak.

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A prediction for October...

- DOW and FTSE may have (at best) a small relief rally (due to ramped up bank bale outs, plus many rate cuts globally). But banks are shot as a long term investment theme, and general earnings across many sectors will dissapoint. So by months end DOW and FTSE will be no higher than today, and perhaps as low as (or will have touched) 9500 and 4000 respectively. These numbers are still 10-20% above the absolute bottoms that will be reached briefly during the next 6-12 months.

- 50% chance of a bank holiday week

- dramatic emergency base rate cuts happen globally (BoE may even announce 0.5% today, 1 day earlier than expected)

- Sterling will fall further, reaching the 1.65 vs USD level I predicted for September. After this month, the dollar will tank.

- As I predicted, oil did not fall below 90 is Sept. But I think we'll see 75-80 this month, and over the next 6 months it may even touch 65-70 [and if so, load up!!!!!].

- Western inflation fails to drop significantly this month, and UK CPI may actually exceed 5%. Longer term they're on there way up [and note: real CPI from shadowstats is already >13%]

- all the above will cause a ramp up in fear, and gold will rally further (950-1000 in USD, >550 in GBP, by months end)

 

5/7 predictions correct, with still one week to go. :)

 

For the other 2 predictions, the first was only given a 50% chance anyway (and we sure did come very close), whereas the other one will just have to wait for a while. But not that long I suspect :)

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I'm really not so sure the gold cartel are in control anymore, as this warp speed deleveraging process is simply crushing the leveraged paper gold system.

 

The last thing the cartel will want is paper prices so out of sync with reality that physical starts being demanded from the exchanges en masse. This is where default could become an issue and the whole paper scam may be exposed.

 

Imagine $600 paper gold but $200-$300 premiums within the retail sector? This is a situation that cannot last.

 

I'm watching closely for Backwardation for a sign we are approaching this moment.

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Folks, keep the faith :rolleyes:

 

As G0ldfinger states, don't follow the nano news, stick with the big picture - it's tougher than we all thought, but hang tough! ;)

 

Here's a positive outlook for you all:

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=887922116&play=1

 

If you don't want to watch it all go to 04:00.

 

Philip Manduca again, he's been long on gold for years, and his play is going to come off.

 

This is from 13/10, Monday after the recent highs. He is calling $650-$850 as buying opportunity. :P

 

The more I see of him the more I think he is right, we are seeing some deflationary deleveraging/liquidation, but the CB's are going to over reflate, POG will go to right where we want it, possibly more!

 

SafeBetter

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Lots and lots of bad debts are being monetised onto the balance sheets of banks.

 

When this bad debt was just plain old debt, it's inflationary effects were offset by the fact that as the debts were paid off the money that had been created with the loan was being extinguished over time by taking the payments out of the wider money supply

 

All of the loans have been paid early with new money. We have taken all of that potential money from the future and forced it into the world of today.

 

It will not stay on the bank's balance sheets for long. It will be itching to find a new speculative home to go to. The banks will certainly not be lending it to us again any time soon. This is because the real-world economy is contracting (and will continue to do so for reasons of real resource constraints). So, where will it go? The answer is it will go to the only safe asset left in town. commodities. In particular, essential commodities since these will be the safest asset class of all. This will have the effect of pushing commodity prices up to such unimaginable levels as to make the recent rise in price we have witnessed seem like the mere aperitif to the main course.

 

Aty which point, gold and silver will go ballistic....

 

How far are we away from this?

 

buggered if I know....maybe a year of so....

 

So, to be honest, I am loving the current collapse of the price of gold. The bigger the drops, the happier I am. Picking the boittom will be a bugger, of course. When I feel that it has reached bottom, I shall be buying in an amount of physical per month to smooth out the peaks and troughs. If the inflationary pressures start to clearly show themselves, I shall acccelerate the process

 

That's it

 

That's my analysis

 

That's my strategy

 

Good luck to us all

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Hi G0ldfinger - I couldn't agree more.

 

I remain 25% up on my PM purchases, all in GBP. And with all this new money created to bail out the banks and soften the recession, and realising that far more yet still will be 'invested' (i.e. printed) by the govs, then there is no way gold and silver will be worth less in a few years time than they are now.

 

In fact, with stock markets now starting another big leg down (I estimate 20% further to fall in next several months) we might well get another phase of panick buying in gold very soon now.

 

I am so confident about all this that I'm barely checking the PoG recently, or checking into this bb (sorry all!). I'm certainly not loosing any sleep - and hope that others may take heart from the informed confidence shown by me, you, CGNAO, and several others. Furthermore, I even just topped up in oil, and still have some powder dry for to double my oil and silver purchases over the next 6 months as the slowdown reaches its peak.

 

bigbigt - what vehicle are you using to buy oil?

 

SafeBetter

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bigbigt - what vehicle are you using to buy oil?

 

SafeBetter

OILB - a GBP denominated oil ETF, backed by Shell (so safe) and the underlying asset (oil) actually belongs to the investor, so no counterparty risk.

 

I put one toe in at USD 101 (OILB £47), several toes more at USD 92 (OILB £42), and a big foot at USD 72 (OILB £33). I'm now only about 10% down on this overall investment, and plan to double up if oil falls to USD 50 anytime in the next 3-12 months (which is possible, though not very likely). I will hold for 5-10 years if necessary, and xepect to see oil hit several hundred dollars in that time frame (i.e., 3-4 fold return)

 

I've also got one toe in BP, at 470p, and plan to triple this investment if it get back into the 350p region in the next 3-12 months, which is quite possible I think

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Looks like Jim is skint, trying to corner the silver market anyway he can, by letting out rooms in his house.

 

 

Room for rent - 60 "one ounce Silver Eagle coins" a month (san jose north)

Reply to: hous-889292171@craigslist.org [?]

Date: 2008-10-22, 11:42AM PDT

 

Furnished room for rent for 60 one ounce Silver Eagle coins a month.

Sorry, I do not accept cash nor checks. I only accept 60 of the "one ounce Silver Eagle" coins" or 6 of the "one ounce Canadian gold maple leaf" coins.

 

Deposit: Ten of the "one ounce Silver Eagle" coins.

 

DSL internet access, microwave, washer and dryer, close to shopping malls, San Jose airport, major freeways.

 

Looking for a non-smoker, non-alcoholic drinker, no pets, no drugs, working professional who is clean, neat and tidy.

 

More…

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Call me the eternal optimist here, but I think we're setting up for a HUGE rally in POG once the 'recession' is priced in and the inflation takes hold. CBs have the financial system on life support and the 'derivative beast' demands huge amounts of money-printing.

 

I concur that by crimbo we're laughin'

(either that, or I'm cashing in everything to buy Au - if there's any left that is!)

 

Thats the thing. I nearly sold a few ounces when POG was at 900 to buy back on the dip. What stopped me was all the stories about how physical is getting more difficult to obtain. Better just to sit on it and ignore the sideshow going on now in POG. :)

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I'm really not so sure the gold cartel are in control anymore, as this warp speed deleveraging process is simply crushing the leveraged paper gold system.

 

The last thing the cartel will want is paper prices so out of sync with reality that physical starts being demanded from the exchanges en masse. This is where default could become an issue and the whole paper scam may be exposed.

 

Imagine $600 paper gold but $200-$300 premiums within the retail sector? This is a situation that cannot last.

 

I'm watching closely for Backwardation for a sign we are approaching this moment.

 

Bring it on!

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Looks like Jim is skint, trying to corner the silver market anyway he can, by letting out rooms in his house.

 

I only accept 60 of the "one ounce Silver Eagle" coins" or 6 of the "one ounce Canadian gold maple leaf" coins.

 

 

More…

 

 

Surely the silver deal is the best one!

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Nothing anyone one here doesn't know already I guess but this guy is watchable http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=4xxs4W-O9OM and a good jump off point to link to other vids in the related videos section.

 

I'm feeling a bit deflated today - pun intended :(

Aussie Juniors took another beating ! I think my average must be -70%, so what's the point in selling?

 

Aint lost anything until you sell. This market is under massive pressure and is incapable of valuing anything. Sit tight and you'll be right. :)

 

http://kr.youtube.com/watch?v=zcZRL4YrKDU

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FWIW, at these levels, even my very conservative approach would decribe the PoG as value. Not cheap, but somewhere around fair value. Only proviso is that if oil keeps dropping, so does my definition of fair value. But unless oil plunges, it is hard for me to see a big drop from here. If there is one, then even I would define gold as cheap and consider "investment" in addition to "insurance".

 

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