GOLD

[Dispassion]

--

[safebetter]

Not seen this ratio discussed before:

 

Gold/nickel ratio may slip due to recession

 

'This would imply the nickel to gold price ratio could fall to between 7 and 12. This would tend to indicate that either gold prices have to rally significantly above $1,000 an ounce or nickel prices are set to fall towards $8,500 a tonne.'

 

Which one is going to slip?

 

Surely it has to be the industrial metal?

 

Thoughts?

 

SafeBetter

[Justin Thyme]

I'm starting to think the derivative issue is going to be a slow deflationary drip, rather than the collapsing catalyst so many thought it would be. What else is in the mix that could send gold through the roof, do we have to wait for the dollar default? So far, whilst clearly the intervention has heavy inflationary overtones, I don't see any buckling or cracks in the system any more. It pains me to say this but they do seem to be dealing with everything in a controlled manner at least as well as they could given the mess they've got themselves in to. Do people see a slow death or do some still predict it will collapse under its own weight?

 

Plenty more defaults and auctions to come. Patience . . .

 

If the Lehman CDS deadline passes without incident, one has to ask if the hedge funds and banks have anything left to liquidate come the next round of CDS auctions.

[warpig]

You're right of course. As you say if LEH passes without too much of a fuss we still have the WaMu CDS auction which was suggested in one article I read for this Friday (24th). It's not that I want any of this to happen, it's just I want to be proved right about gold, I think you probably feel the same.

 

Just out of interest, has anyone been on to CID's website, their shelves are virtually bare, I haven't seen it like that ever. A very telling sign. I really fancy a 1KG silver Kookaburra. Hmmm.... (reaches for wallet!) Silver's so cheap!

 

Plenty more defaults and auctions to come. Patience . . .

 

If the Lehman CDS deadline passes without incident, one has to ask if the hedge funds and banks have anything left to liquidate come the next round of CDS auctions.

 

[azazel]

My mate is a little skint at the moment and is looking to sell some of his silver. He has 2 x 1kg bars Argor (sold one on ebay for £300 ebay item no. 180299730938 http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vie...m=180299730938) Nice bars IMO, best finish of all the bars I have seen.

 

He also has 10 x 1 kg Australian coins. Koalas I think.

 

Various other items including silver maples and eagles.

 

Let me know if you want to buy any.

 

All in good condition as delivered from coininvest. (except the 2 x Argor 1kg bars)

[warpig]

Why don't you start a seperate thread with pics and prices? I may be interested if the price is right.

 

My mate is a little skint at the moment and is looking to sell some of his silver. He has 2 x 1kg bars Argor (sold one on ebay for £300 ebay item no. 180299730938 http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vie...m=180299730938) Nice bars IMO, best finish of all the bars I have seen.

 

He also has 10 x 1 kg Australian coins. Koalas I think.

 

Various other items including silver maples and eagles.

 

Let me know if you want to buy any.

 

All in good condition as delivered from coininvest. (except the 2 x Argor 1kg bars)

 

[kernull]

I was looking at these triangles yesterday.

What weight do you assign to your bearish prediction and what weight to your bullish prediction?

 

i am 90% bearish. because crude closed lower, and the DOW is set up in a nasty triangle continuation pattern, so , if it goes to 7,500 , and all the world stock exchanges with it, guess what is going to happen to the dollar index.

[azazel]

i am 90% bearish. because crude closed lower, and the DOW is set up in a nasty triangle continuation pattern, so , if it goes to 7,500 , and all the world stock exchanges with it, guess what is going to happen to the dollar index.

 

Hi Ker

 

Whats your view of the price of gold over the next six months? What about silver?

[azazel]

Why don't you start a seperate thread with pics and prices? I may be interested if the price is right.

I will speak with him about the prices.

[DoctorSolar]

i am 90% bearish. because crude closed lower, and the DOW is set up in a nasty triangle continuation pattern, so , if it goes to 7,500 , and all the world stock exchanges with it, guess what is going to happen to the dollar index.

 

Being in the UK I am much more interested in following the price of gold in terms of pounds sterling.

If you looked at the charts for the price of gold (POG) denominated in that currency would your analysis be the same?

The POG has fallen in dollars over the past few days but in terms of sterling its hardly moved at all.

 

 

[Dispassion]

Hi Ker

 

Whats your view of the price of gold over the next six months? What about silver?

 

I love Ker's charts, I'm a dataholic, but since we're on the subject of TA I'd like to offer my view on it's usefulness, partly cautionary for anyone who would put too much faith in it and partly because if I'm wrong I really want to know about it.

 

1. TA is like paper scissors stone (rochambeau), if you invest at a random time, then you're as likely to profit as lose from market timing, hence the average use of market timing must be zero and if there is merit to market timing strategies then it must be to the detriment of other market timing strategies.

 

2. If TA is compleltely ineffective, we'd expect a normal (gaussian) distribution of the performance of individual strategies, only distortions to the distribution indicate beneficial or detrimental stratgies.

 

3. We can place an upper limit on the maximum value added by TA, based on the number of people who are known for amassing wealth from TA. eg. 1% profit per trade would turn 10,000 into 10,000,000 within 695 trades. So, for example, a stratgey producing a profitable trade of 1% every 5 days for 10 years must be very rare.

 

4. If the trade is motivated by TA, the average gain must be in excess of the trading fee to be profitable.

 

5. If TA is used to add value to an otherwise motivated trade then the requirement that it's profitable is removed along with the need for the gain to exceed the trading fee, hence widespread use of TA doesn't demonstrate profitability.

 

any comments gratefully recieved.

[G0ldfinger]

... I really fancy a 1KG silver Kookaburra. Hmmm.... (reaches for wallet!) Silver's so cheap!

My father recently bought 5 of them. Even I thought that he was crazy.

[narrowescape]

Down hugely in USD, up in GBP!

 

 

That's some almighty fall in sterling.

 

 

[warpig]

Bllimey that's saying something... Any idea how big they are? They look about 6" in diameter, but it's hard to tell.

 

My father recently bought 5 of them. Even I thought that he was crazy.

 

[kernull]

but since we're on the subject of TA I'd like to offer my view on it's usefulness,

 

this is much more deeper than you think, but it is very simple explained, could you build a house without drawing an exact plan? no? well, how can you build a portfolio if you don't have a plan on a chart? that's it

[romans holiday]

this is much more deeper than you think, but it is very simple explained, could you build a house without drawing an exact plan? no? well, how can you build a portfolio if you don't have a plan on a chart? that's it

 

I do not think this analogy holds. A chart merely reflects the day to day behaviour of the market; it is arbitrary. An architect's plan reflects an understanding of certain objective rules of geometry and engineering; it is orderly [in the long run the market is constrained to be rational]. An understanding of macro-economics and fundamentals is the equivalent of the long term plan.

 

Charts are more like the daily weather forecast; to know whether you can build or not for that particular day.

 

Edit: Someone with a fundamental macro-picture which is positive for gold will not buy gold when seeing it spike. Rather, when POG is in a downward channel as it is now, they will buy. They will in effect read charts in "reverse" to those with no macro picture. They will still use the charts... but as a mere "weather report".

 

Regards.

[DoctorSolar]

Down hugely in USD, up in GBP!

 

 

That's some almighty fall in sterling.

 

Thanks for those charts. From a TA point of view had you looked at the chart for POG in pounds sterling would a chartist have forecast that bounce up? Or would you have maintained your bearish outlook?

[DoctorSolar]

Thanks for those charts. From a TA point of view had you looked at the chart for POG in pounds sterling would a chartist have forecast that bounce up? Or would you have maintained your bearish outlook?

From my naive point of view those two charts look nigh identical on the left hand side yet wildly different on the right. A chartist would surely have thought the outcome would be the same for both?

Apologies if I sound skeptical i am genuinely interested in hearing from folks about how TA can resolve such things.

[grumpy-old-man]

Hi all,

 

I am wanting to finally buy some coins today, just a few grands worth to start me off, but who's got any 1oz eagle, krugs etc left ??

 

I have tried a couple of sites but they are out of stock.

 

cheers, GOM

[azazel]

Bllimey that's saying something... Any idea how big they are? They look about 6" in diameter, but it's hard to tell.

about 100mm diameter

 

[azazel]

Hi all,

 

I am wanting to finally buy some coins today, just a few grands worth to start me off, but who's got any 1oz eagle, krugs etc left ??

 

I have tried a couple of sites but they are out of stock.

 

cheers, GOM

 

Coininvest have some 1 ounce maples http://coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=11&id=23

[grumpy-old-man]

Hi all,

 

I am wanting to finally buy some coins today, just a few grands worth to start me off, but who's got any 1oz eagle, krugs etc left ??

 

I have tried a couple of sites but they are out of stock.

 

cheers, GOM

 

just to add,

 

I see Goldline have maples in stock, is there any preference issues when selling back to dealers ?

I assume there are collectors favourites etc, but would there be any selling difference between say a standard 1oz canadian maple & a 1oz eagle ?

[grumpy-old-man]

Coininvest have some 1 ounce maples http://coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=11&id=23

 

Hi azazel,

 

have you used these yourself ?

 

ta

[electroweak]

Hi azazel,

 

have you used these yourself ?

 

ta

I have used them (CID), for me they were first rate.

Stuff is sent via UPS and you can track it.

 

EDIT : hate to say it, but the spread on them maples is going to cost you £58 / Oz.

two months ago, it was half that.

 

Buy Price: Netto Price:

£486.80 £544.14

 

(£544/Oz at today's paper price of £467 / Oz is phenomenal)

[FWIW]

Hi all,

 

I am wanting to finally buy some coins today, just a few grands worth to start me off, but who's got any 1oz eagle, krugs etc left ??

 

I have tried a couple of sites but they are out of stock.

 

cheers, GOM

 

Hello GOM - This is music to my ears!

 

I have used Coininvestdirect and they are very good and efficient! These are the guys to use if you want to go online only.

I have also used ATS Bullion, but I went to their shop(premises really) and bought over the counter. I had to call in advance for them to put some coins aside for me. I got kruggers, maples, buffalo's, and pandas - Again no problems...

I have also bought from the Royal Mint (I wanted some Brittanias and they had a nice box set - was expensive though!).

 

Good luck mate!